AMERICAN SURVIVAL
The Weekly Newsletter Brought to You by
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Discount Gold & Silver Trading
Providing Financial Security Since 1995
P.O. Box 276, Berlin, MD 21811
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Combining the World of Finance, Politics & Health
September 14, 2021
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IN THIS EDITION...
Market Recap from Melody Cedarstrom
A Review of the Financial Markets - Aug. 27- Sept. 10
Insights from Dave Allen
It's Still a Good Time to Buy Gold
Credit Bubble Bulletin from Doug Noland
Necessarily Aggressive
Food for Thought from Wendy Wilson
Medical Science Admits Herbs Help Our Bodies Heal
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MARKET RECAP
Melody Cedarstrom
President & CEO
Discount Gold & Silver Trading
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CLOSING BID PRICES
Aug. 27 - Sept. 10, 2021
(2 Weeks; Friday thru Friday)
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold fell 1.7% from $1,817 to $1,787/oz
Silver fell 1.3% from $23.98 to $23.68/oz
Platinum fell 5.4% from $1,006 to $952/oz
Palladium fell 11.8% from $2,348 to $2,070/oz
PAPER MARKETS
DJIA fell 2.4% from 35,456 to 34,608
NASDAQ fell 0.1% from 15,130 to 15,115
S&P 500 fell 1.1% from 4,509 to 4,459
MISCELLANEOUS
10-Year Treasury Yield fell 0.1% from 1.31% to 1.30%
Crude Oil rose 1.5% from $68.72 to $69.71/barrel
US Dollar Index fell 0.1% from 92.68 to 92.61
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IT’S STILL A GOOD MONTH TO BUY GOLD
The World Gold Council Says So
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The World Gold Council hails September as one of the most opportune times to buy gold.
In its latest monthly report, the WGC said, “September has been one of the strongest months historically for the price of gold, and this could present an opportunity for investors as we head into the 4th quarter of the year.”
As one of our recent What A Rush…of Gold & Silver blogs noted, gold has delivered positive returns during September “with a confidence level” of nearly 90%.
Spot gold was up as much as $15.00 today, even after inflation data came in lower than expected — further easing investor concerns that the Federal Reserve will pare back its massive bond buying sooner than later.
The CPI advanced 0.3% in August from July, the smallest monthly increase in 2021. The dollar also fell, and Treasury yields slipped — all boosting demand for non-interest-bearing gold.
Bullion has come under pressure this year (spot gold is down over 4%) due in part to concerns that pandemic stimulus programs will soon be tapered as global economies recover.
By contrast, last year, gold was up just shy of 25% as it surged to a record high in August on a wave of investor money, much of which has since been shifted to bitcoin and other risk assets.
TD Securities analysts say, “Given the Fed’s apparent tilt to full employment, any data weakness should serve as an accelerator to gold’s upside move.
The WGC report observed that “September’s price action is likely driven by a combination of two trends:
“A period of strong demand linked to the Indian wedding season and other festivals in October and early November, and higher global investment activity following typically quieter summer months.
“As such, investors have often used September as an opportune time to add gold to their portfolios.”
The WGC’s upside for gold lies in August’s lack of price movement, aside from the flash crash at the beginning of the month.
It said, “Real government bond yields (i.e., the US-10-year TIPS yield) hit all-time lows in early August, which is normally a positive for gold as its opportunity cost improves.
“Despite the very strong correlation over recent years, we’ve seen the gold price lag this move at times, which appeared to be the case in August. This was likely a product of a stronger dollar.
The WGC says an upswing in gold’s price is possible if real interest rates “hold below -1%, particularly as month-end jobs data was weaker.”
August Flash Crash is Ancient History
Despite all the recent volatility, gold wrapped up August down just 0.6% on the month and down around 4% on the year – creating unusually good buying opportunities.
“Global financial markets were relatively quiet during the month, which is common in August, with most stock markets drifting higher on lighter volumes,” the report said.
“The slight fall in the gold price in August was primarily driven by…ETF outflows and a reversal from the strong July gold return, as well as modestly higher rates.
“Countering their negative impact was follow-through from interest rate declines in July. Despite the August 9th flash crash, gold ended an otherwise uneventful month resiliently flat.”
So, what caused the flash crash on August 9th, when gold dropped 4% to below $1,700 an ounce in just 15 minutes?
The WGC points to low liquidity and technical positioning as the main reasons behind it.
“This happened during a period where there is generally less liquidity in global markets across all assets. There (also) were some technical components that could have created this quick sell-off.
There was “the recent ‘death cross’ where the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, which is considered bearish.
Then, “the quick sell-off likely initiated some stop-loss orders that were probably situated around the 1,700 U.S. dollar level, and this created a snowball effect, causing additional selling.”
The good news, which comes as no surprise to precious metal investors: Gold is showing its resiliency more than many players have been expecting after last month’s sudden drop.
Rhona O'Connell at StoneX said, "Gold has recovered…so [all] of the fall has been unwound."
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Signs Pointing ↑
Amid this backdrop, Anna Golubova reports that “institutional investors are eyeing gold this fall.”
The WGC reminds us that “the principle of gold as a store of value is one of our key messages for investing in gold.
“We have seen the purchasing power of fiat currencies decrease substantially over recent years, a trend that has continued from the last century.”
Inflation is the reason why gold is on the radar of big institutional players, according to the WGC, which said that higher prices are already hurting consumers.
The WGC concluded that “while inflation may be transitory in the eyes of the Fed and other central banks, consumers – and investors – seem to feel differently.
Indeed, the New York Fed’s latest consumer expectations survey reveals that expectations for medium-term inflation hit the highest level on record.
Inflation has been so bad in recent times that American supermarkets are buying up to 25% more supplies to get ahead of inflation and higher supply chain costs that could arise.
From 2020 up until today, bacon is up 14%, bread is up 7%, milk increased by 8%, and oranges are up 8% as well.
There’s been a significant rise in lumber costs (although it's down recently), the cost of gas has jumped, and the real estate market is frothy from the likes of hedge funds and Wall Street types.
Despite that, the Fed’s belief that inflation will be temporary, the Fed survey showed expectations that inflation will be 4.8% over the next 12 months.
That’s the highest level recorded since 2013 and includes a perception that Americans’ personal finances have degraded.
The report notes, “Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with more respondents reporting to be worse off compared to a year ago.”
Although, the survey does add that “respondents [are] slightly more optimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead.”
Economist Peter Schiff says he doesn’t believe the Fed will be raising interest rates anytime soon with the economy’s foundations solidified by borrowing.
According to Schiff, “The reason that they are not going to fight inflation in the future is the same reason they’re not fighting it now — because they can’t do it without collapsing the economy.”
The WGC concluded, “This could lead to increased allocations of real assets like gold, which has performed well in higher inflationary environments.”
Call Discount Gold & Silver Trading
Don’t wait for ramped-up economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility to cause gold and silver to move higher; think about locking into today’s prices now.
When you’re ready to buy more gold and silver, call Discount Gold & Silver Trading at 1-800-375-4188. And don’t forget to ask Melody about our specials.
We’ve been providing financial security since 1995. More importantly, we do business the old-fashioned way – with truth and honesty. Put our expert experience to work for you and your family today.
As always, may your week be worth its weight in gold…and silver…and more!
NOTE: Dave Allen is a regular co-host with Melody Cedarstrom on Discount Gold & Silver’s Financial Survival radio show on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 4:00-5:00 p.m. Eastern. He is a frequent contributor to DGSCoin’s American Survival newsletter and What a Rush…of Gold & Silver blog and also is a long-time community activist, a former congressional analyst, and a lifelong personal investor. Questions or comments can be sent to daveallen.usa@yahoo.com.
DISCLAIMER: The opinions shared in this article are not intended, and should not be construed, to be investment advice. Investing in gold, silver and other precious metals is serious business. While it can be fun and very rewarding, there is no guarantee that you will be successful and earn a profit. All investors should do their research and consider talking with a financial planning professional, especially one whose knowledge base includes the precious metals markets,
SOURCES: Thank you to Yvonne Yu Lie of Bloomberg News; and Anna Golubova of Kitco News – whose essay(s), article(s), opinion(s), commentary and/or research served as the basis for this article.
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CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Doug Noland
(Reprinted with permission)
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The Wall Street Journal ran with the headline “What if China’s Property Crackdown Goes Overboard Too?” for its Tuesday’s “Heard of the Street” article. A Bloomberg piece went with “China Property Crackdown Alarms Analysts as Economic Risks Grow.”
September 7 – Bloomberg
(Sofia Horta e Costa)
“Warnings that China’s campaign to cool its property market will go too far are multiplying. Economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. are calling the curbs China’s ‘Volcker Moment’ that will hurt the economy.
"The credit squeeze in the property sector is ‘unnecessarily aggressive’ and may weigh on industrial demand and consumption, wrote colleagues at Bank of America Corp. A prominent Chinese economist cautioned of a potential crisis should home values drop below mortgages.
"Stabilizing China’s housing market under the mantra of ‘housing is for living, not for speculation’ is one of the many campaigns being waged by Xi Jinping as he seeks to reduce the cost of raising a family and defuse risks in the financial system.
"Yet it’s also one of the toughest goals to achieve given the vital importance of the sector to the economy -- the industry accounts for more than 28% of gross domestic output.”
The Wall Street Journal article (Jacky Wong) concluded with the following:
“Longtime China watchers may expect the government to dial back property curbs when they start to bite in the usual on-again, off-again fashion. The risk is that in the current fevered political and regulatory environment, the ‘on’ button might stay pressed a bit too long -- with very serious consequences for financial stability and growth.”
The U.S. mindset holds that if markets faltered on a Fed taper announcement – or, God forbid, a 25 bps rate increase – this would provide unequivocal evidence of a policy blunder.
Long forgotten is the more traditional alarm when a central bank failed to move in a timely manner to tighten policy - “falling behind the curve.” Markets in the past feared the Fed being late to respond to inflation and excess. This circumstance would at some point require an aggressive policy response.
The job of the Federal Reserve is “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.” This critical insight from the great central banker, Marriner Eccles, is dismissed as hopelessly archaic. These days, it’s more a central bank’s job to spike the punch at the earliest indication the party might be losing its momentum.
A view took hold that inflation had been permanently defeated – that enlightened central bankers possessed the tools and mastery to ensure inflationary pressures would remain under tight control. And with inflation well-harnessed, there was no reason to fear elevated asset prices that were in the past vulnerable to Fed-orchestrated tightening cycles.
And with inflation dead and buried, the availability of open-ended QE ensured central bankers enjoyed unparalleled capacity to respond with overwhelming stimulus in the event of faltering securities and asset markets. Asset inflation and Bubbles are no longer to be feared, and they certainly don’t justify monetary tightening that might unduly jeopardize economic prosperity.
As is too often the case, conventional thinking is more wishful than wisdom. Inflation is very much alive, and it’s definitely not controlled by central banks. And, importantly, asset inflation and Bubbles pose momentous systemic risk to economic, financial and social stability.
The assumption is that a cautious Beijing will “dial back property curbs when they start to bite” – succumb just as they’ve repeatedly done in the past. There is so much at risk – to China’s maladjusted economy, the bloated financial system, and vulnerable social stability. To be sure, risks have inflated to such extremes specifically because Beijing developed a habit of flinching.
As I’ve written over the years, “Bubbles scoff at timid.” Inflationary dynamics gather momentum over time; inflationary biases become increasingly entrenched. Mr. Eccles’ wording “just as the party gets going” was not happenstance. There’s a steep price that will have to be paid for not quashing inflationary dynamics early.
In China’s case, not only did officials fail to repress housing inflation and speculation, their propensity to back off early worked to further invigorate Bubble Dynamics. Literally tens (hundreds?) of millions of property (apartment) speculators became emboldened. Beijing would ensure their housing wealth only inflated. Housing was for living, while housing speculation became the ticket to a better life.
Beijing recognizes it has an urgent problem. Its historic apartment Bubble has created enormous economic imbalances. It poses a great threat to China’s financial system. Moreover, Bubble excess is exacerbating social inequality, with mounting risk to social stability. They are forced into being Necessarily Aggressive because previous feeble tightening attempts failed.
The pertinent question has become: how much pain are they willing to tolerate? Having fallen significantly “behind the curve,” speculative dynamics will be restrained only through the administration of pain. Speculators have to suffer. Ditto for lenders. Lessons must be learned the hard way.
But at this stage, a determined tightening risks a Bubble collapse with serious systemic risk. And if Beijing again loses its nerve, it will display weakness. At this phase of the cycle, a revived bubble would have disastrous consequences.
September 9 – Bloomberg
“Regulators in Beijing have signed off on a China Evergrande Group proposal to renegotiate payment deadlines with banks and other creditors, paving the way for a temporary reprieve as the cash-strapped developer struggles to come to grips with more than $300 billion of liabilities.
"China’s Financial Stability and Development Committee, the nation’s top financial regulator, gave its blessing to Evergrande’s plan last month after the property giant missed interest and principal payments on some loans, a person familiar with the matter said…”
Evergrande’s four-year bond yields rose to 62% in Wednesday trading, before the above news of lender forbearance sparked a relief rally (yields ended the week at 52.5%). Other troubled developer bonds also reversed higher. Yet an index of Chinese high-yield bonds ended the week with yields not far off highs since March 2020.
My assumption is there’s no turning back for Beijing this go round. They intend to break speculative psychology – orchestrating a so-called “Volcker Moment.” And this is consistent with the signal sent this year from safe haven global bond markets.
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This is, however, necessarily a high-risk strategy, with Chinese officials keen to avoid a “Lehman Moment” – the type of panic and acute market dislocation that would unleash grave systemic instability.
So, Beijing will attempt a controlled process of Bubble deflation. We’ve already witnessed a Huarong bailout and some forbearance for Evergrande. As for the big picture, China’s strategy is similar to Fed efforts during the late-twenties:
Try to tighten finance for speculative endeavors, while promoting lending for productive investment. It didn’t work for the Fed, and I don’t expect a successful outcome for Beijing.
Late in a major speculative cycle, levered speculation becomes a primary source of system Credit and liquidity. Faltering Bubbles and resulting deleveraging ensure a contraction of speculative Credit. This could be somewhat offset by Credit growth in “productive” sectors, though this is much easier in theory than in actual practice.
Throwing Credit at such an acutely imbalanced economic structure at a cycle inflection point is fraught with risk. I expect the faltering Chinese real estate Bubble - and the associated unwieldy changes in financial flows through the economy - to prove highly destabilizing.
China’s August lending data was generally disappointing. At $460 billion, Aggregate Financing (system Credit) bounced back (from July’s $164bn) to beat estimates, bolstered by strong growth in government bond issuance.
Bank Lending, however, was notably weak. At $189 billion, New Loans were about 15% below estimates. This was about 5% below August 2020 and only slightly ahead of August 2019. While Consumer Loans somewhat recovered from a dismal July, at $89 billion they were down about a third from August 2020 and 12% lower than August 2019.
According to Reuters, “Some major Chinese banks had stepped up lending toward the end of August and reduced a backlog in property loans after being advised by the central bank to increase loan quotas for the month.”
Corporate Loans jumped from July’s exceptionally weak $67 billion to $108 billion, though August was second only to July for the weakest months so far this year. September has in the past been a seasonally strong month for lending, so perhaps we’ll have a clearer view of China’s Credit dynamic next month.
At 10.3%, August’s year-over-year growth in Aggregate Financing was the weakest since December 2018. It’s worth noting the abrupt slowdown in China’s M2 monetary aggregate continued in August. At $25 billion, M2 growth was only about a quarter of the August 2020 level – with expansion over the past three months slowing to a mere $10 billion. At this point, the benefit of the doubt goes to the China Credit slowdown thesis.
September 5 – Bloomberg
“China’s Vice Premier Liu He made a strong pledge to continue supporting private businesses after a spate of regulatory crackdowns in sectors from after-school tutoring to Internet platforms rocked financial markets.
"‘The principles and policies for supporting the development of the private economy have not changed,’ Liu, who is President Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser, said… ‘They don’t change now, and will not change in the future.’ China must stick to socialist market economy reforms and persist in opening up the economy, Liu said, vowing the country will protect property rights and intellectual property rights.”
Frog in the pot syndrome. The Shanghai Composite surged 3.4% this week. For how long can the semblance of Beijing having every under control hold? All eyes on China’s real estate markets.
September 8 – Yicai Global
“Sales of second-hand homes in China’s first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen plunged last month amid ongoing policy adjustments to rein in the country’s housing market. Some 18,000 pre-owned homes sold in Shanghai last month, down 40% from a year earlier, the biggest drop so far this year…
"The total value of the deals fell 44% to CNY57.4 billion (USD8.9 billion). The average price was CNY3.18 million (USD492,000), a 7% drop… In Shenzhen, sales fell for the fifth straight month, plunging 82% to a 10-year low of 2,043 units…The number of deals also fell in Beijing, dropping 10.7% from July to 15,942 units. Guangzhou, another first-tier city, recorded 7,000 new home sales, the lowest in the past 15 months.”
U.S. equities markets were under some broad-based selling pressure. The VIX spiked into Friday’s close, ending the week at almost 21. Curiously, U.S. corporate Credit was bullet proof. Still dancing…
September 10 – Bloomberg
(Brian Smith)
“The U.S. investment-grade primary market completed its busiest week in history after an eyebrow-raising 54 high-grade companies sold debt in just four days to break the record for number of deals…
"Weekly volume of $77.8bn ranks fifth all time, trailing only four weeks in 2020 when issuers rushed to the capital markets in search of liquidity… Bond sales nearly doubled projections of $40bn-45bn, accounting for more than half of the $140bn expected for the entire month…”
September 10 – Bloomberg (Lisa Lee)
“The leveraged finance market is bracing for a surge in new deals, fueled by booming demand for M&A financing and investors hungry to get their hands on anything offering an alternative to rock-bottom interest rates. September could see as much as $110 billion of U.S. high- yield bond and leveraged loan sales, according to bankers…, making it one of the busiest months in years.
"The leveraged loan market already saw 12 deals launch on Tuesday, and there’s little sign the deluge is set to slow anytime soon… The impending onslaught adds to what’s already been a historic year. U.S. junk-bond issuance of about $346 billion is on pace to surpass last year’s record $432 billion. Leveraged loan supply of around $400 billion, excluding repricings, is already the most since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2013.”
Off the charts bond issuance. Euphoric. August job openings “JOLTS” data were reported Wednesday, with a record 10.934 million unfilled positions. August Producer Prices rose at a stronger-than-expected 8.3% annual clip (China’s up a larger-than-expected 9.5%).
"National home prices were reported up 18% y-o-y, the strongest annual housing inflation in the 45-year history of the data series. And the latest thinking is the Fed will pass on beginning tapering at its September 22nd meeting.
Why is the Fed dragging its heels? It was reported this week that a number of Fed officials have been actively trading their stock accounts. For an institution in the process of destroying its credibility, they should be smarter than that.
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FOOD FOR THOUGHT
Wendy Wilson of Apothecary Herbs
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MEDICAL SCIENCE ADMITS
HERBS HELP OUR BODIES HEAL
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In August 2019, research was conducted at the Tshwane University of Technology Biomedical Science in South Africa, where they housed more than 25,000 plant species.
Their research looked at the way medicinal plants help the human body regenerate and heal wounds. The scientists looked at the way herbs assisted in cell and tissue repair calling the techniques “restoration processes.”
The research team speculated on how such substances could be used in medicine, especially in trauma care, to speed up the recovery process. Medicine wants to leverage the herbs into drugs and call the new specialty “tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.” Let’s check it out.
Herbs & Biological Processes
What science is figuring out is that herbs offer concentrated nutrients that assist in rebuilding structures such as bone, ligaments, tendons, muscle, skin, etc.
Medical science wants to launch a new drug line promoted as regenerative therapy for just about every trauma, including post surgical treatments for joint replacements. The research was published in the Academic Rigor Journal Conversation, August 2019.
“We are researchers working this area because we think medicinal plants may hold a least some of the answers to the limitations within medicine. Our research yielded positive results in the laboratory suggesting compounds taken from plants to offer valuable support with regeneration of bone and tissues.” Academic Rigor Journal Conversation, August 2019
New Specialty
This new specialty within medical science, Tissue Engineering & Regenerative Medicine, is trying to pick apart natural healing therapies and apply them to drug therapy.
Here are the three elements to this new area of medicine:
- Signals from the body and organs
Most people may not know what scaffold building is. It attempts to use materials to build biological systems to replace body tissue and function.
For example, they want to artificially build the following while telling patients they are using a natural process:
- Bone
- Stem cells
- Cartilage
- Skin
- Brain cells & neurons
Here is how you know it is artificial and not a natural regeneration phase as it is promoted to be:
“These scaffolds are meant to repair or modify cell phase behavior and influence shape forming processes. Currently most of the scaffolds being used do not contain all the appropriate functions for repair. Thus turning to medicinal herbs for guidance.” Academic Rigor Journal Conversation, August 2019
How science approaches these issues is to take the natural resource and recreate it. No surprise, the new creation will not work like the original. In their research, they found herbs that can heal a hip fracture in less than half the normal time.
They found herbs that can heal wounds in just a few days rather than weeks. They discovered herbs that help the body regenerate collagen; the substance to create cartilage and bone.
Plant Power
So, here is science examining herbs due to millennia of use and tons of historical writings from cultures all over the world to see if such plants can be exploited. I do not know what else you would call it when research shows the plants have benefits for healing but they do not want to just use the plants. That would remove the drug company control and profits.
“Its a given that medical plants have been found to have value in wound healing and anti-aging therapies, so it stands to reason they could be useful in the pharmaceutical fields as well.” Academic Rigor Journal Conversation, August 2019
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“These are exciting findings suggesting we can incorporate medicinal plants with the selected properties and combine it with biomedical engineering to address the current limitations in medicine.” Academic Rigor Journal Conversation, August 2019
God's Copyright & Healthcare Costs
The report also states that their intentions to take selected elements from herbs to add to drug therapy will be justified by lowering healthcare costs. How are they kidding. It will become an economic boom for the healthcare industry if they attempt to control medicinal therapies.
“It is predicted the biomedical plant therapies will bring over $1.5 billion to the industry by 2024. It will become a biomaterial market.” Academic Rigor Journal Conversation, August 2019
When was the last time you saw economic reports declare that healthcare costs went down significantly? Healthcare is a third of the nation’s economy and no body wants to kill the golden goose. There is no money in making people truly healthy but selling the illusion of health is a goldmine.
Apothecary Shop
For over two decades the folks at Apothecary Herbs have been delivering unadulterated, organic, whole-food herbal liquids and powders that have all the chemistry God put in them. Basic nutrition offers huge benefits because the body knows what nutrition looks like and it also knows what petro-chemicals look like. The body prefers the nutrition.
Call Apothecary Herbs for their Calcium Formula made with whole-food medicinal plants to help the body regenerate bone, muscle, connective tissues and skin quickly. Call for their free product catalog: 1- 866-229-3663, International 828-469-5972; online at thepowerherbs.com, where your healthcare options just became endless.
Herbalist Wendy Wilson on
Herb Talk Live
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