THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment
Published By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC   Tel: 202-463-5074
Email: Comments@gbdinc.org
 
No. 14 of 2019
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2019

Click HERE for the Valentine's Day quote from Christopher Marlowe.  
 THE AI (ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE) TARGET 

"We welcome President Trump's executive order, signed earlier today, launching an 'American AI Initiative' and look forward to working with his Administration and Congress to ensure this country remains the world leader in this burgeoning technology."

John Neuffer     
February 11, 2019 
CONTEXT
John Neuffer is the President and CEO of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).  Today's quote is from a blog post he published on the day President Trump signed Executive Order No. 138959 on "Maintaining American Leadership In Artificial Intelligence."

Artificial intelligence or AI is easier to illustrate than to define, or so it seems to us.  We shall get to illustrations and definitions in a moment.  The one thing that seems clear is that, however defined and in whatever settings, AI uses lots of semiconductors.  Mr. Neuffer underscored that point in his February 11 post.  Here is the full first paragraph of that entry.

JOHN NEUFFER:

Artificial intelligence - enabled by tremendous advances in semiconductor technology - holds the potential to greatly benefit society and strengthen America's economy, national security, and global technology leadership. We welcome President Trump's executive order, signed earlier today, launching an "American AI Initiative" and look forward to working with his Administration and Congress to ensure this country remains the world leader in this burgeoning technology.

The same post directed the reader to an SIA background paper on artificial intelligence.  Written by Falan Yinug, SIA's director for statistics and economic policy, the paper is particularly helpful on the three points of definitions, illustrations and American leadership, and we shall shamelessly borrow from it in dealing with those topics.  

What is AI?  Mr. Yinug explains:

AI is often defined as the ability of machines to perform cognitive functions associated with the human mind. Machine learning (ML), a particular approach to AI, involves powerful computers digesting massive amounts of data to develop models, which can be used to infer the desired output when given similar parameters in other scenarios. This is vastly different from traditional programming, where humans instruct a predefined set of algorithms and the role of computers is merely to process and execute. In machine learning, computers take one step further, to "learn" from the given data and figure out the program themselves.  Where computer systems once had to be programmed to execute rigidly defined tasks, they can now be given a generalized strategy for learning, enabling them to adapt to new data inputs without being explicitly reprogrammed.

What Are Some Examples of AI? SIA and others point to things like self-driving cars, computer assisted medical diagnoses, and cybersecurity.  More broadly, the SIA article projects that "AI could add over $8 trillion in gross value added to the U.S. economy boosting annual growth from 2.6 percent to 4.6 percent by 2035."

Who Is the Leader?  The SIA paper notes that "the U.S. semiconductor industry currently leads in AI investment" but adds that this is an area where the U.S. faces intense competition.  More on the competition in a moment.  

More immediately,
What Does the Executive Order Do?  For that matter, what does any executive order do? The Wikipedia article on executive orders opens with the declaration that

In the United States, an executive order is a directive issued by the President of the United States that manages operations of the federal government and has the force of law.

And this one?  Specifically, it encourages - no directs - federal agencies, where appropriate, to focus their efforts on advancing AI research and education.  The links below will take you to the Executive Order itself and to the accompanying fact sheet.  For the Cliff notes version, we'll turn to an article by Michael Kratsios, who is the Deputy Assistant to the President for Technology Policy.

MICHAEL KRATSIOS

America has been the leader in AI since its inception.  The American AI Initiative will build on this success by leveraging our R&D ecosystem of industry, academia, and government and prioritizing federal investments of cutting-edge ideas that can directly benefit the American people.  An integral part of the initiative will include federal agencies developing AI R&D budgets to support their core missions.
COMMENT
Now about the competition.  It is a crowded field.  We'll begin with the biggest competitor.

China.  China is very much in the mix.  AI is part of China's now famous (or infamous) industrial policy plan known as "Made in China 2025." The Middle Kingdom has set itself the goal of being the world leader in AI by 2030.  And in the AI arena, China has some special advantages.  Specifically, the fuel for many AI system is data - human data - and with a population of 1.4 billion, China has a lot of it.  Amy Webb made this point effectively last fall in an article for Inc., where she wrote, "If data is the new oil, China is the new OPEC."

The EU and Others.  Our impression is that there are lots of players in the AI game.  The EU and Russia are certainly contenders.  Japan, already the world's leading exporter of industrial robots, might well carve out other important AI niches for for itself in the years ahead - all part of Japan's desperate effort to substitute capital for labor.  These countries, their initiatives, and the emerging elements of AI are all topics to which we expect to return, especially as they relate to trade and investment.  

The thing to keep in mind is that this discussion is aimed at the future, about which nothing is certain.  Targets and definitions are likely to change but the direction, we suspect, will hold.  We are like Emily Dickinson's sailor: "The Sailor cannot see the North-but knows the Needle can -"
SOURCES & LINKS
Mr. Neuffer'sBlog is a link to John Neuffer's blog post of February 11, expressing SIA's endorsement of the Executive Order on artificial intelligence, which was signed earlier that day.  This was the source for today's featured quote.

Executive Oder is a link to President Trump's Executive Order of February 11, 2019, on Artificial Intelligence as published in the Federal Register.

Fact Sheet takes you to a White House fact sheet on the order.

The AI Initiative is an article by Presidential assistant Michael Kratsios on this initiative, which was published by Wired magazine.

China's AI Goals takes you to the Inc. article by Amy Webb referenced above.

Amy Webb is the Wikipedia entry on this futurist and founder of The Future Today Institute.

Ms. Dickinson's Letter.  The Emily Dickinson quote is from a letter she wrote to Thomas Wentworth Higginson on June 7, 1862.  It is important because it represents for many her acknowledgement that she would not be a famous, published poet, at least not in her lifetime.  She wrote: "If fame belonged to me, I could not escape her. If she did not, the longest day would pass me on the chase--and the approbation of my Dog, would forsake me ... ."  And yes, she had a dog.  

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