THE TTALK QUOTES


On Global Trade & Investment
Published Three Times a Week (with occasional bonus quotes) by
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC  Tel: 202-559-9316
No.28 of 2020
SATURDAY, APRIL 18, 2020

Click HERE for last Wednesday's quote from Frederick Douglass.
ON EXTENDING THE UK-EU TRADE TALKS

“The transition ends on 31 December this year. We will not extend it. If the EU asks we will say no."

David Frost
UK Government
April 16, 2020
CONTEXT
The UK formally left the European Union on January 31, 2020, and the two are now in a transition period, which is due to end on December 31. That leaves a little over eight months for the two sides to agree on a trade deal and other aspects of their relationship, including the allocation of fishing rights in UK waters. Some have argued that, with all that needs to be done, eight and half months is not enough time. For its part, the EU has repeatedly suggested that the UK should ask for an extension, though, in fact, either party could make such a request anytime between now and July. Both parties would have to agree, of course, for the extension to take effect.

Last Thursday, April 16, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva , weighed in urging an extension. She put the issue in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. Here is a portion of the BBC’s report on Ms. Georgieva’s comments:

[W]hen asked what she thought about the prospect of no trade deal this year and no extension to talks, [she] told the BBC that because of the "unprecedented uncertainty" arising from the pandemic, it would be "wise not to add more on top of it".

"I really hope that all policymakers everywhere would be thinking about [reducing uncertainty]. It is tough as it is, let's not make it any tougher," she said.

David Frost is the UK chief negotiator for the trade talks with the EU, and the tweet he put out last Thursday would seem to answer the question of an extension. We are not sure whether his tweet was issued before or after Ms. Georgieva’s BBC interview. In any event, Mr. Frost wrote:

As we prepare for the next round of negotiations, I want to reiterate the Government’s position on the transition period created following our withdrawal from the EU. 

The transition ends on 31 December this year.

We [the UK] will not extend it. If the EU asks, we will say no.

So much for an extension. As for the negotiations, the next round of talks – virtual of course – is set to begin on Monday, April 20, with further rounds slated for the weeks of May 11 and June 1. The British government has published an agenda for next week’s talks (please see the link below.) Trade in goods, trade in services, and fisheries are all prominent items.
COMMENT
We expect next week’s negotiations to be difficult. The parties are still far apart in a number of key areas. That said, while the reports will undoubtedly be inconclusive, we hope genuine progress can be made.

We agree with the IMF Managing Director that, in light of the tidal waves of economic unknowns headed toward all shores, it makes sense for policy makers to minimize uncertainties where they can. We disagree, however, that adding two more years to the agony of Brexit would somehow serve that purpose. To the contrary, it seems to us that, if the goal is to minimize uncertainties – to know, for example, what the trading arrangements will be between the United Kingdom and the Member States of the European Union – then the best course is to force the negotiators to make decisions now, well, this year.
SOURCES & LINKS
Mr. Frost’s Tweet is a link to the tweet published last Thursday by David Frost, who is Prime Minister Johnson’s Europe Adviser and the chief negotiator for the UK in the trade talks with the EU. This was the source for today’s featured quote. 

A Conversation with the IMF’s Managing Director takes you to a BBC report on their discussion with Managing Director Georgieva, a portion of which is quoted above.

Agenda is a table with the agenda items for next week’s negotiations as published by the UK government.  
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