Welcome back to the D&D AG MarketMIX newsletter! This newsletter is exclusively for you - our D&D customers and associates. Our goal is to provide you with a monthly summary of the Ag market reports to keep you updated on relevant, vital news that may impact your business.

USDA Forecasts Spike in Corn Plantings, Fueling Volatility in Grain Markets

An influx of data is helping fuel moderate volatility in grain markets. In its latest Prospective Plantings report, published at the end of March, USDA forecasted US corn plantings at 92.0 million acres, above expectations. Most major growing states plan to increase acreage this year, and December corn futures have remained under pressure since the projections were released.

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USDA Reports Bearish Picture for US and World Grain Stocks

Looking at more current conditions, USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks data pegged inventories at 7.401 billion bushels, down 32% versus December, with analysts pointing to better-than-expected feed usage.

But the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report painted a more bearish picture, with US and world stocks landing on the higher side of expectations at 1.342 billion bushels and 295.35 million metric tons, respectively. USDA also reported a smaller-than-expected revision to Argentina’s production. Overall, balance sheets were relatively unchanged, despite markets expecting cuts.

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USDA Reports Show Soybean Plantings Below Expectations, Neutral Reaction in Futures

Soybean acreage, meanwhile, was pegged at 87.5 million, just below predictions. In a state-by-state breakdown, plantings are expected

to remain relatively flat with prior-year levels.

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USDA reported quarterly soybean stocks at the lower end of forecasts at 1.685 billion bushels, down 44% from December on higher crush rates and exports. But new WASDE data placed US and world stocks at 210 million bushels and 100.29 million metric tons, on the high side of estimates. The takeaway: Domestic balance sheets remain relatively tight, but higher Brazilian production could limit rally potential.

Soybean meal futures reacted to the data in neutral fashion, trading in a less-than $15 range in the two weeks following the planting and quarterly stocks reports. Improving Canadian ending stocks and a continued increase in crush capacity are expected to put pressure on the cash market over time and appear for the moment to be limiting upside risk in futures.

Planting Gets Underway Despite Fears of Delays

Talk of wet weather and unfavorable ground conditions are evaporating quickly as planting activity gets underway. In the final week of March, many producers anticipated 4-6 weeks of delays. However, as of the second week of April, virtually all of the “I-States” have reportedly started putting crops in the ground, and forecasts are trending better. As planting progresses and farmers begin to sell their first bushels, we’ll be on the lookout for lower basis offers in the feed market.

Dryer, Warmer Air Settles in California, Softening Forage and Fiber Prices

Dryer, warmer air is settling into California’s central valley, too. After months of extreme flooding, clouds are breaking, and damage assessments are beginning to take form. At first glance, water availability looks to be secured for the coming crop year, with a chance to carry some of the resources into the 2024 growing season. The question now: Will readily available irrigation allow for production to offset the damage done in flooded patches? The answer is still to be determined, but we’re already seeing a softer tone to forage and fiber prices in California and across the Midwest as large swaths of drought are reduced or eliminated.

Protect Your Downside

Given current market conditions, the Ever.Ag Feed Foundations Team recommends putting strategies in place to protect your downside. If you’re locking in high prices, consider buying inexpensive puts underneath. Please contact Jordan Miller or Pat Kahle who can direct your questions to the appropriate advisor to discuss specific strategies.

Jordan Miller: 419-692-3206 ext. 1043

Pat Kahle: 517-260-8295 or P[email protected]

This monthly report is brought to you by Ever.Ag’s Feed Foundations Team. The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. By law we must state the information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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