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#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#
What Next for Algeria-France Ties?
Algeria and France remain bound by a colonial history that neither can fully confront nor forget. Sixty years after independence, deep distrust and politicized memory still define the relationship. France’s visa restrictions in 2021, intended to pressure Algeria on migration cooperation, sparked outrage and mirrored broader tensions over immigration, identity, and post-colonial resentment. Macron’s 2022 visit to Algiers briefly revived hopes of reset, but gestures collapsed under the weight of entrenched suspicion. The Algerian diaspora in France—millions strong—is both a connective tissue and a source of friction, feeding domestic politics in both capitals. Despite €13.6 billion in annual trade and strategic ties in energy and security, normalization remains unlikely. France avoids full accountability for colonial-era crimes, while Algeria clings to its anti-colonial identity. Both governments benefit politically from the strain. Short-term reconciliations often give way to fresh disputes, leaving relations caught in a cycle of diplomatic fatigue. Full trust is not on the horizon; transactional engagement remains the default.
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France Expels 12 Algerian Officials as Tensions Escalate
France has ordered the expulsion of 12 Algerian diplomats, citing actions deemed incompatible with their status, further straining already fragile bilateral ties. The move follows escalating disputes over migration, visas, and historical grievances, including France’s support for Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara. Algeria has condemned the expulsions as hostile and is expected to retaliate, deepening the diplomatic standoff between the former colonial power and its largest North African neighbor.
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EU Issues List of 'Safe Countries' for Migrant Returns that includes Egypt, Tunisia
The European Commission has proposed designating Egypt, Tunisia, and five other nations as "safe countries of origin," enabling EU member states to fast-track asylum applications from these countries within three months. This move aims to streamline deportations amid a 38% drop in irregular migrant entries last year. However, human rights organizations express concern that expedited procedures may compromise individual assessments and overlook risks faced by specific groups, such as political dissidents and journalists. The proposal, part of the EU's broader migration pact set for 2026, awaits approval from the European Parliament and member governments.
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A New Smash and Grab for Red Sea Ports
Djibouti anchors a growing scramble for control of the Red Sea, as global powers entrench military and commercial interests across the Horn of Africa. Once a conduit for 12% of global trade, the region’s stability is eroding under missile threats, civil war, and shifting alliances. Sudan’s war now doubles as a proxy fight over port access, while rivalries in Somalia and Ethiopia threaten to redraw maritime influence. Russia, the UAE, Turkey, and the U.S. are all deepening footholds through arms, bases, and infrastructure deals. Supply chains—not sovereignty—are increasingly shaping the contest.
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Egypt’s Revenue from the Suez Canal Plunged Sharply in 2024
Egypt's Suez Canal revenue plummeted nearly two-thirds in 2024, falling to $3.99 billion from $10.25 billion the previous year, as Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping disrupted global trade routes. The Iran-backed group's targeting of vessels, particularly those linked to Israel, led to a significant decline in canal traffic, with only 13,213 ships transiting in 2024 compared to over 26,000 in 2023. This downturn has exacerbated Egypt's economic challenges, reducing a vital source of foreign currency amid broader regional instability.
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Hackers Breach Morocco's Social Security Database in an Unprecedented Cyberattack
Hackers breached Morocco's social security agency, leaking sensitive personal data on Telegram. While the agency did not identify the perpetrators, the hackers claimed retaliation for alleged Moroccan harassment of Algeria on social media. Moroccan media attributed the attack to Algerian hackers, framing it as part of a broader cyber conflict between the two nations. The leaked data reportedly includes financial information on executives, political figures, and entities linked to the royal family, raising concerns about internal inequalities and escalating regional tensions. The incident follows U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's endorsement of Morocco's Western Sahara plan, a move Algeria criticized, further straining diplomatic relations.
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Egypt Nears $1 Billion Deal for South Korea’s FA-50 Jets
Egypt is finalizing a defense agreement with South Korea to acquire up to 100 FA-50 light combat aircraft, with an initial batch of 36 jets valued at over $1 billion.The deal includes technology transfer, enabling local assembly of the remaining aircraft at Egypt's Helwan facility.The FA-50, developed by Korea Aerospace Industries with Lockheed Martin, shares 70% parts compatibility with the F-16, facilitating integration into Egypt's existing fleet.This acquisition aims to replace aging Alpha Jets and K-8E trainers, while bolstering Egypt's aerospace capabilities and diversifying its defense partnerships.
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Carlos Lopes: As Trump and China Disengage, Africa Turns to Gulf States
As Western aid recedes and Chinese investment slows, African nations are increasingly turning to Gulf states for economic partnerships. Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have pledged substantial investments in African infrastructure, energy, and technology sectors. This shift reflects a pragmatic approach by African leaders seeking alternative sources of funding and development support amid changing global dynamics.
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French Minister for Europe & Foreign Affairs Meets with Moroccan Counterpart
France and Morocco reaffirmed their commitment to an "enhanced exceptional partnership" during a meeting between Foreign Ministers Jean-Noël Barrot and Nasser Bourita. France reiterated its support for Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan for Western Sahara, aligning with UN resolutions and emphasizing Moroccan sovereignty. Both nations plan to deepen cooperation across sectors, with a high-level meeting scheduled for autumn. They also agreed to coordinate on regional issues, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, and highlighted Morocco's ratification of the UN High Seas Treaty as a step toward stronger multilateral engagement.
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Red Sea, Iran Energy Threats Amplify 2025 Global Economic Risks as Trade Wars, Trump Loom
Escalating tensions in the Red Sea, coupled with Iran's energy maneuvers, are intensifying global economic risks in 2025. The U.S. has launched significant military operations against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, aiming to secure vital shipping lanes disrupted by over 190 attacks since late 2023. These disruptions have led to a 90% decrease in Red Sea shipping, causing substantial rerouting and increased costs. Simultaneously, President Trump's renewed "maximum pressure" campaign targets Iran's oil exports, with considerations to intercept Iranian tankers at sea. These actions, alongside new tariffs and trade tensions, have prompted the IMF to lower global growth forecasts and warn of heightened financial instability.
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France's Total Signs $1.5 Billion Sonatrach Deal for Algerian Project
French energy firm Total has entered a $1.5 billion agreement with Algeria's Sonatrach to construct a polypropylene plant in Arzew, western Algeria. Sonatrach will hold a 51% stake, with Total owning the remaining 49%. The facility is designed to produce 550,000 tonnes of polypropylene and 650,000 tonnes of propane annually, aiming to supply both the Algerian and broader Mediterranean markets, with a portion of the output destined for Europe. This project aligns with Total's strategy to expand its petrochemical activities by leveraging gas-derived feedstock to meet the growing global demand for plastics.
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Minister: Morocco to Begin Tendering Process for LNG Terminal
Morocco is set to launch a tender for a floating LNG terminal at the Nador West Med port, aiming to diversify energy sources and reduce coal dependency. The facility will connect to an existing pipeline importing 0.5 bcm of gas from Spain and serve industrial zones near Kenitra and Mohammedia. With natural gas demand projected to rise from 1 bcm to 8 bcm by 2027, the terminal supports Morocco's broader energy strategy, which includes adding 15 GW of electricity capacity—13 GW from renewables—by 2030, backed by a $13 billion investment.
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Smartphone Customs are Fueling the Government’s Localization Drive
Egypt's government is intensifying its push for local smartphone manufacturing by considering the removal of a 5% development fee on imported components. This initiative aims to alleviate the compounded taxation burden on local assemblers, who currently face multiple levies on both parts and finished devices. The move is part of broader efforts to attract foreign manufacturers and reduce reliance on imports, especially after a 73% year-on-year drop in smartphone sales in Q3 2022 due to import restrictions and currency challenges.
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USS Mount Whitney Conducts Tripoli and Benghazi Port Visits to Promote Regional Stability, National Unity and Libyan Sovereignty
The USS Mount Whitney, flagship of the U.S. Sixth Fleet, conducted port visits to Tripoli and Benghazi, marking the Navy's first such engagement in Libya in over five decades. The visits involved high-level meetings with officials from both the internationally recognized government in Tripoli and the eastern-based Libyan National Army, focusing on enhancing military cooperation, promoting national unity, and supporting Libya's sovereignty. These engagements are part of a broader U.S. strategy to reinforce its presence in North Africa amid growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region.
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China Deploys J-10 Fighters to Egypt
China and Egypt have launched their first joint air force exercise, "Eagles of Civilization 2025," at Wadi Abu Rish Air Base, marking a significant expansion of Beijing's military presence in the Middle East. The People's Liberation Army Air Force deployed J-10C fighters, KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft, and YU-20 aerial refueling tankers, while Egypt fielded its MiG-29M/M2 jets. This collaboration underscores China's growing role as a defense partner in the region, coinciding with reports of Egypt's interest in acquiring Chinese J-10CE fighters to diversify its military procurement sources.
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Tunisia Commissions Two U.S.-Donated Island-Class Patrol Boats to Boost Mediterranean Security
Tunisia has commissioned two U.S.-donated Island-class patrol boats, enhancing its maritime patrol and border security capabilities in the Mediterranean. The 34-meter vessels, equipped with advanced navigation systems and armaments, were transferred during a visit by the USS Mount Whitney, symbolizing ongoing U.S.-Tunisia defense cooperation. This addition strengthens Tunisia's efforts against smuggling and illegal maritime activities, reinforcing regional stability.
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Moroccan Fintech PayTic Raises $4.4M to Expand Payment Infrastructure
Casablanca-based fintech PayTic has raised $4.4 million in a funding round led by AfricInvest, with participation from Axian Venture Lab, Mistral VC. Founded in 2020, PayTic provides back-office automation tools for banks, fintechs, card issuers, and payment processors. The platform supports operations such as reconciliation, fraud management, compliance, and chargebacks through a no-code interface integrated directly with financial institutions’ systems
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Algeria to Launch Specialized Investment Funds to Support Startup Growth and Diversification
Algeria is launching specialized investment funds to support 20,000 startups by 2029, focusing on sectors like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and information and communication technologies. Collaborations with international institutions aim to align these funds with global standards, enhancing startups' access to broader markets, particularly in Africa and the Arab region. Additionally, state-owned Algérie Télécom has announced an $11 million fund targeting AI, cybersecurity, and robotics, reinforcing the government's commitment to diversifying the economy through innovation.
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How Algeria is Crafting a Dynamic Economy for Tomorrow
Algeria is reducing its reliance on hydrocarbons by tripling non-oil exports to $5.1 billion in 2023, driven by products like fertilizers and steel. The Algerian Port Community System, launched in 2021, has streamlined trade logistics, while the 2022 Investment Law offers tax incentives and simplified procedures to attract foreign investment. Despite these advancements, challenges such as low productivity and global decarbonization pressures persist, necessitating sustained reforms for long-term economic resilience.
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Tunisia: Mega-Verdict in Mega-Trial Against the Opposition
A Tunisian court has sentenced 40 opposition figures—including former lawmakers, lawyers, and activists—to prison terms ranging from 13 to 66 years on charges of conspiracy and terrorism. The trial, held in a special terrorism court, has been widely condemned by human rights organizations as politically motivated and procedurally flawed. President Kais Saied, who has consolidated power since dissolving parliament in 2021, has labeled the defendants as traitors and terrorists. Critics argue that the judiciary is being used to suppress dissent and eliminate political opposition, marking a significant regression in Tunisia's post-Arab Spring democratic progress.
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Reading Note | Tunisia, A Hybrid Political Regime
Tunisia's political system has evolved into a hybrid regime, blending authoritarian control with populist rhetoric. President Kaïs Saïed's consolidation of power since 2021 has led to the dismantling of democratic institutions, including the suspension of parliament and the adoption of a new constitution that centralizes authority in the executive branch. Despite low electoral participation, Saïed maintains support from segments of the former regime's bureaucracy and security apparatus, as well as from disenfranchised populations. This shift reflects a broader trend of democratic backsliding, where formal structures persist but are undermined by concentrated power and reduced civic freedoms.
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THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE SWITZERLAND (MEIS)
Russia’s Strategic Shift in North Africa
April 24, 2025 | 10:00 AM — 11:30 AM EDT
Join the North Africa Initiative (NAI) and MEIS for a timely discussion on Russia’s growing influence in North Africa and its implications for regional security, migration, and global geopolitics. Russia’s strategic pivot to North Africa—following setbacks in Syria—has reshaped regional dynamics, from military deployments and disinformation campaigns to its exploitation of migration routes and illicit networks. The session will explore a variety of key subjects from military power projection to soft power strategies as well as Western and regional responses.
To attend in person, please RSVP using the link below. Breakfast will be provided
–▸ EVENTBRITE –
Online viewers can stream this event live using the link below. No registration required.
–▸ LIVESTREAM –
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–▸ IN CASE YOU MISSED IT –
THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & THE SAIS REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The Looking Glass
Miniseries on Contemporary Egypt: Geopolitical Landscape
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Under the leadership of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Egypt has undergone profound transformations—economic, political, and social. In this mini series, we step behind the headlines and take a closer look at Egypt’s evolving role on the global stage. Over five episodes, The Looking Glass will offer an in-depth look into the architecture of modern Egypt under Sisi.
In Episode 1, we unpack Egypt’s geopolitical landscape—how its strategic location has made it both a bridge and a buffer zone in a region gripped by conflict. We examine the ripple effects of the war on Gaza, the growing insecurity across the region, and how decades of instability have indirectly weighed on Egypt’s economy, governance, and global position.
To explore these issues in depth, we are joined by Dr. Abdallah Al Dardari, the United Nations Assistant Secretary General and the Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States of the UNDP.
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| The SAIS Middle East & North Africa Club, in collaboration with the North Africa Initiative (NAI) at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University SAIS, organized a focused expert discussion on irregular migration from North Africa to Europe. This event examined the key drivers behind migration across the Mediterranean—ranging from socioeconomic and political instability to environmental stressors and transnational crime—while exploring the human stories behind the statistics. The program included a short documentary. Speakers assessed current legal frameworks, the role of sanctions and state fragility, and offered concrete policy recommendations to address the challenges and opportunities of irregular migration in the region. | | |
INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH & STUDIES ON THE ARAB & MUSLIM WORLD | BI-ANNUAL SEMINARS
Geopolitics of the Maghreb
March 18 — May 20, 2025 | 06:30 PM to 08:30 PM
The Maghreb, i.e., Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya constitutes a vast area bordering the rest of the Arab world and the Sahel and an immediate neighbor of the European Union, separated only by the Mediterranean. Since their independence in the 1950s and 1960s, these countries continue to face significant challenges, particularly economic, political and security, which directly affect their stability as well as their development prospects. The objective of this seminar is to study the main components of these challenges while attempting to restore them, both in their immediate context – national and regional – as well as in all the much broader ones – globalization, in particular – which make the Maghreb a necessary actor in world developments.
Classes are held in French.
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ATLANTIC COUNCIL | MENASOURCE
Solving Libya’s Economic Collapse Will Require Confrontation—Not Consensus
Libya’s economic crisis is rooted not in oil prices but in entrenched corruption and institutional decay. The Central Bank and National Oil Corporation, once pillars of national stability, have been co-opted by rival factions, turning state revenues into tools of patronage. Efforts to unify governance without overhauling fiscal structures risk centralizing corruption rather than resolving it. Reform requires mandatory disclosure of oil contracts, real-time spending transparency, and strict bans on off-budget deals. International actors must cease enabling elite networks by treating Libya’s collapse as a technical issue; without confronting the political economy of state capture, any unity government will merely repackage dysfunction. Absent decisive action, Libya faces not gradual decline but the prospect of public revolt.
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DEMOCRACY FOR THE ARAB WORLD NOW (DAWN)
From Morocco to Libya, What Trump 2.0 Means for North Africa
A second Trump administration could reshape U.S. engagement in North Africa, with significant implications for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. In Morocco, the 2020 U.S. recognition of Western Sahara under Trump may embolden Rabat's regional stance, potentially straining relations with Algeria. Algeria, wary of U.S. favoritism toward Morocco, might deepen ties with Russia and China, complicating U.S. influence. Tunisia's democratic backsliding under President Kais Saied could be overlooked, as Trump 2.0 may prioritize counterterrorism over governance reforms. In Libya, U.S. policy might shift to favor stability over democratic processes, possibly aligning with strongman figures like Khalifa Haftar. Overall, a Trump return could signal a transactional approach, emphasizing security and economic interests over democratic values, altering the U.S.'s role in North Africa's political dynamics.
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THE GEOPOLITICS
Trapped by Its Own Model: Algeria at the Edge
As Gulf states pour trillions into U.S. partnerships under Trump’s renewed presidency, Algeria has broken from its cautious posture, signing military and energy deals with Washington. These moves are less a pivot than a survival strategy—Algiers seeks influence over U.S. policy on Western Sahara, where Trump and top lawmakers now back Morocco. The shift leaves Algeria increasingly exposed: diplomatically isolated, economically stagnant, and tied to authoritarian regimes like Iran and Syria. Polisario fighters backed by Algiers have reportedly become entangled in Iran’s militant networks, further tarnishing Algeria’s claim of neutrality. While the regime presents itself as a stabilizing force, it stands at odds with the regional consensus and out of sync with U.S. priorities. At home, decades of rentier economics, corruption, and youth disillusionment have drained state capacity. Algeria clings to military rule and oil revenues to maintain order, but with Tunisia unraveling and the Sahel on fire, regional shocks could quickly breach its borders. Reform is blocked not by ideology, but by fear—of collapse, of reform itself, and above all, of its own citizens.
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MIDDLE EAST PEACE & SECURITY (MEPS) FORUM
Libya's Future Amid a Potential U.S.–Russia Rapprochement
As the U.S. and Russia explore a potential thaw in relations, Libya emerges as a strategic arena reflecting their geopolitical recalibrations. Russia has entrenched its military presence in eastern Libya, deploying approximately 2,500 personnel under the Africa Corps and establishing control over key airbases and ports like Tobruk. This expansion follows Moscow's redeployment from Syria and aims to project power across the Mediterranean and into the Sahel. Concurrently, the U.S. has intensified its engagement, with high-level visits and military diplomacy targeting General Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA). Notably, U.S. B-52 bombers conducted training flights over Libya in early 2025, signaling a more assertive posture. Despite these moves, the U.S. faces challenges in matching Russia's entrenched influence, raising questions about the effectiveness of its late-stage reengagement. As both powers navigate this complex landscape, Libya's future remains uncertain, shaped by the interplay of external ambitions and internal divisions.
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AFRICA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES (ACSS) | SPOTLIGHT
Mapping China’s Strategic Port Development in Africa
Chinese state-owned enterprises now participate in 78 port projects across 32 African countries, representing over a third of the continent's 231 commercial ports. This extensive involvement surpasses China's port presence in any other region globally. In many cases, Chinese firms oversee the entire port development process—from financing and construction to operations and ownership stakes. For instance, at Nigeria's Lekki Deep Sea Port, Chinese entities not only built and financed the facility but also hold a 54% ownership stake and operate it under a 16-year lease. Such arrangements grant China significant control over maritime trade routes and logistics in Africa. Beyond commercial interests, there's growing concern about the dual-use potential of these ports. The transformation of Djibouti's Doraleh Port into China's first overseas military base in 2017 exemplifies this trend. Moreover, 36 of the 78 Chinese-involved ports have hosted People's Liberation Army Navy visits or exercises, indicating their capability to support military operations. This strategic expansion aligns with China's broader Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to enhance its global influence through infrastructure development. However, the increasing Chinese footprint raises questions about sovereignty, debt sustainability, and the potential militarization of commercial ports across Africa.
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WORLD BANK
Building a Water-Secure Future in the Middle East and North Africa
Water scarcity threatens economic stability and social cohesion across the Middle East and North Africa, where over 60% of the population faces high water stress and average freshwater availability is just 1,200 cubic meters per person—well below the global benchmark of 5,000. Rapid urbanization, mismanaged irrigation, and aging infrastructure compound the problem. Climate change is expected to reduce water runoff by 25% by 2050, intensifying pressures on food systems and public health. The World Bank estimates the region could lose up to 6% of GDP due to water-related impacts. To avert this, countries must modernize irrigation, improve utility governance, expand wastewater reuse, and invest in data-driven water allocation. Solutions hinge on cooperation and financial reform, not just engineering. The shift from reactive drought response to proactive risk management is overdue. Absent reform, water insecurity could erode already fragile governance and deepen inequality across the region.
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HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH
World Report 2025
Human Rights Watch's 2025 report documents a global surge in repression, with over 70 national elections in 2024 often marred by discriminatory rhetoric and authoritarian gains. Conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine have exposed the fragility of international protections, while Western democracies face criticism for inconsistent human rights advocacy. The report also notes instances of resistance, such as electoral pushback in India and mass protests in South Korea, highlighting both the challenges and resilience in the struggle for global human rights.
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BTI TRANSFORMATION INDEX | REPORT
Libya Country Report 2024
Libya remains mired in political fragmentation and economic instability, with rival governments in Tripoli and Sirte undermining national cohesion. Despite a recovery in oil revenues, the economy suffers from mismanagement, high unemployment at 20.7%, and limited diversification. Efforts to unify state institutions and expel foreign mercenaries have seen limited success, while the absence of a constitutional framework continues to delay elections and impede governance reforms.
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U.S. COMMISSION FOR INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS FREEDOM (USCIRF) | REPORT
Annual Report 2025
The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom's 2025 report highlights escalating global threats to religious freedom, recommending 16 countries for "Country of Particular Concern" status and 12 for the Special Watch List. The report also identifies seven non-state actors, including ISIS and the Taliban, as entities of concern. It underscores the need for coordinated U.S. policy responses to counteract rising repression and promote freedom of belief worldwide.
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BOOK
Political Democracy for Morocco
Political Democracy for Morocco offers a powerful analysis of Morocco's social, political, and economic challenges, while addressing universal issues related to freedom, humanism, and collective responsibility. Serge Michel Bena offers a thoughtful critique of governance and injustices, while putting forward bold ideas for profound change.
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Stay informed.
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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)
Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.
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You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:
Deputy Director
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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. | | Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors. | | | | |
![France has ordered 12 Algerian officials to leave and recalled its ambassador from Algiers as relations between the two countries deteriorate [File: Ludovic Marin/AFP]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/000_42DB264-1744738657.jpg?resize=770%2C513&quality=80)
