Effects of Climate Change on Business Aviation

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This is the second article in our ongoing series about sustainability in business aviation. The first article describes possible mitigations for a little-known component of climate change: jet contrails. This article looks at specific impacts from three components: rising ocean, air, and land temperatures; increased wind speeds and locations; and heightened storm intensities and rainfall amounts. Next time, we will review the ARINCDirect tools available now to help you cope with these effects.

Severe weather events, including stronger storms and longer droughts, are already having an impact on aviation in general. These effects may soon be significant for business aviation operations, and it will be useful to learn more about them.

Historic Temperature Increases

While there is some disagreement about the causes of rising temperatures, the historical record makes it clear that they are going up steadily. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United-Nations consortium, has a sixth assessment coming in 2023, which is certain to show this trend continuing. The graphic below makes this clear.

Figure 1: Climate Change Global Temperature from NOAA

These increases in surface temperature also drive warming of the ocean, with attendant increases in evaporation at the surface. This additional moisture in the atmosphere can “fuel” and strengthen storms as well as increase their frequency.

Wind Intensity and Temperature Changes

The evaporation transport described above will lead to pressure differences between areas, driving pressure gradients. In other words, jet-stream and surface-wind average speeds are likely to increase. This creates more opportunities for significant clear air turbulence and can cause occasional closures of some airport runways. And more moisture in the air means more latent heat in the atmosphere, leading to positive temperature deviations (that is, higher ISA temperatures), potentially reducing aircraft performance, along with effects on fuel densities.

More Powerful and Frequent Storms

Of course, the additional moisture in the atmosphere means more opportunities for it to condense into rain. With such readily available “fuel” for storms, precipitation amounts will be heavier, even leading to flooding in low-lying areas. Flooding at major airport hubs would impact their capacities, making them more prone to ground stops and delays. This could result in increased costs if not properly planned for.

Wider Impacts from Climate Change

All of these factors (temperature, rain amounts, sea-level rise, and storm severity) have the potential to redefine tourism and travel patterns. Coastal airports may see more frequent flooding; other airports may stop operations temporarily because of access problems. Fixed-base operations will need to adapt more quickly to last-minute changes. Dust and wind in drought areas can damage aircraft and interfere with communications.

What’s Next?

We’ve discussed impacts, and we hope to guide you along the way to sustainable aviation practices. We can’t “fix” this on our own, but we can help. Our next article in this series will cover the ARINCDirect tools that can be used to help mitigate the worst effects of climate change in the near-term.

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