The 2022 Hurricane Season

Welcome back to Jump Seat. This week, we take a look back at the active 2021 hurricane season, forecasts for the upcoming 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and how this season may impact your operation.  

Last year, the Atlantic basin produced 21 named storms (winds 34 knots or greater) which was the third most active year on record, behind 2020 and 2005, and the sixth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. There were seven hurricanes (winds 64 knots or greater) of which four were major hurricanes (winds 96 knots or greater). Eight of these named storms made landfall in the United States. Will 2022 be another active hurricane season? 

There are two major organizations that issue reputable forecasts, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Colorado State University (CSU). On May 24th, the NHC released their forecast for the 2022 season calling for a 65% chance of an above-average season. Their prediction includes 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. On April 7th, researchers at CSU issued their forecast for 2022 calling for another above-average season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Based on the 1991-2020 thirty-year average, the Atlantic typically sees 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes, with 3 major hurricanes. The official hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

Figure 1. Hurricane Ida approaches Louisiana as a strong, Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 knots on August 29, 2021. Ida is the second-most damaging hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana on record, only behind Hurricane Katrina in 2005. 

The Atlantic Basin has been very active with tropical cyclones over the past several years. Warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and an active African monsoon have led to an increase in tropical cyclone development. Strong La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean combined with the aforementioned atmospheric conditions have also led to an increase in named storms. La Niña conditions tend to favor tropical cyclone development while El Niño conditions hinder development in the Atlantic. The Climate Prediction Center expects an ongoing La Niña to persist throughout the 2022 season. 

Regardless of how many storms form this year, it only takes one storm to cause disruptions and alter your plans. It is almost certain that the Gulf of Mexico, AR routes, and the WATRS region will all be directly affected by tropical cyclones this year. Whether your trip takes you to Florida, the Caribbean, or Asia, we have a team of flight coordinators ready to assist you.  

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