This week, Boeing released its hotly anticipated annual outlook, with demand numbers that are oft repeated in workforce development circles. Indeed, ATEC’s annual Pipeline Report (scheduled to publish by the end of the month!) relies heavily on the Boeing forecast when calculating its mechanic “supply” targets.

In its 2021-2040 Pilot and Technician Outlook, Boeing projects that over the next 20 years we’ll need 626,000 new maintenance technicians globally—132,000 of those in North America—to fly and maintain the global commercial aviation fleet.

Avid readers of the annual report will immediately notice a stark difference in this year and last year’s bright, shiny technician demand infographic number—it goes down by more than 100,000 technicians globally (and 60,000 in North America).

This year’s forecast calculation—unlike the two previous years—does not include business aviation and civil helicopter personnel demand. That is, this year’s demand numbers are based only on the 20-year fleet forecast for commercial aviation aircraft (with more than 30 seats) whereas last year the projection numbers considered commercial + business aviation + helicopter fleet demand.

Dig deeper into the subtext of previous year reports and we see that commercial aviation technician demand in North America actually increased seven percent—from 123,000 (the number forecasted in 2019 and 2020) to 132,000. Global demand for commercial aviation technicians goes down, but only by three percent.

Since the demand calculation is based primarily on fleet forecast, the global downturn in technician projections is likely due to the pandemic-induced decline in the growth trajectory. The report indicates as much, stating: “Those in this industry who emerge from market downturns have historically resumed their growth trajectory through collaboration, adaptation, and innovation.”

The report goes on to say—as it has in previous years—that the projections assume a steady stream of “newly qualified personnel to replace those who have left or will soon exit the industry through mandatory retirement, early retirement, recent layoffs and furloughs, and ongoing attrition.” As we know, replacing retiring personnel is a stark challenge all on its own.

Given most maintenance schools utilize the annual Boeing forecast to support recruitment efforts, marketing teams will have their work cut out for them to clearly and succinctly explain the difference between 2020 and 2021 projections (if you find a creative solution, let ATEC know!). But, whether the Boeing forecast includes helicopter and business aviation demand or not, it still paints a stark picture requiring an aggressive playbook to meet future workforce needs.

Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of Senators sent a letter to Secretary Buttigieg and Administrator Dickson, encouraging the Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration to swiftly implement congressionally-mandated interim final regulations in support of aviation maintenance training schools. Read more.

At long last, after a multi-year application process, Blue Ridge Community College received FAA approval to offer its Light Sport Repairman Maintenance Course through distance learning. Read more.

ATEC Executive Director Crystal Maguire participated in Aviation Week Network's MRO Podcast, Back To School, highlighting the shift to digital learning for aviation technical schools in response to the pandemic. Listen here.

The Journal is currently accepting submissions of scholarly, research, application, or opinion articles. Professionals from all segments of the aviation maintenance industry, members and non-members alike, are invited to submit a paper for publication. The submission deadline for the fall issue is October 1. Learn more.

ATEC and its sister organization, Choose Aerospace, joined AMFA, ARSA, AAR Corp., the Teamsters, the STEM Education Coalition, and the Universal Technical Institute, calling on President Biden to take specific action in support of aviation technical workforce development. Read more.

The FAA released revised versions of the FAA mechanic test sample exams (dated Aug. 12, 2021), for general, airframe, and powerplant. The sample exams are intended to provide a representative sample of the types of questions that a mechanic applicant will see on the actual knowledge tests. Read More.

Aviation Institute of Maintenance and Piedmont Airlines are partnering to provide maintenance students with necessary training and a conditional offer of employment through a beta test tuition payment program. Read More.

The AMC coincides with the MRO Americas 2022 Convention, April 25-28, at the Kay Bailey Hutchinson Convention Center in Dallas, Texas. The annual competition for aircraft maintenance professionals and aspiring students has been cancelled for the past two years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Read More.

ATEC's foundational arm, Choose Aerospace, is proud to announce its slate of 2021 scholarship and award recipients including two students, hailing from Liberty University and the Pittsburgh Institute of Aeronautics (PIA), who claimed the top cash awards.

Thank you to our partner organizations that contributed $37,000 worth of scholarships, textbooks, tool sets, training systems, and testing fee credits for educators and future aviators, including the Aeronautical Repair Station Association, Aviation Supplies & Academics, Snap-On, Nida Corporation, AVOTEK, Aircraft Technical Book Company, and CertTEC. Read more.

HAI 2022 Scholarships: Applications Due Dec. 3.

For an aggregated list of all maintenance scholarships available annually, visit chooseaerospace.org/industry-opportunities.

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