THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment
Published By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC   Tel: 202-463-5074
 
No. 7 of 2019
MONDAY, JANUARY 28, 2019

Click HERE for the January 17 quote from Chris Pratt of  
Mid-Continent Steel and Wire.  
NAFTA UPDATE: THE BIG THREE, USMCA, AND TARIFFS 

"We're earnest supporters of the USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement]. ... [But] the continued imposition of the steel and aluminum tariffs, particularly on Canada and Mexico, are extremely harmful to our industry and risk undermining all of the potential benefits of the USMCA."
 
Gov. Matt Blunt 
January 24, 2019 
CONTEXT
A former governor of Missouri, Matthew Blunt is the President of the American Automotive Policy Council.  The council represents Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and thus an industry with an enormous stake in the trading arrangements for North America.  Those arrangements are due to change now that all three North American countries-the United States, Mexico, and Canada-have signed the agreement meant to replace NAFTA, namely the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA.  
 
The future of the USMCA was one of two intertwined policy initiatives that were the focus of the GBD event last week.  The other was the tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico, which the Trump administration began collecting on June 1, 2018, in the name of national security.  Those tariffs are still in place, notwithstanding the signing of the USMCA agreement on November 30.  The GBD event was   
 
A North American Checklist: 
The Metal Tariffs and The USMCA 
Washington, DC
January 24, 2019

Sponsored by  
 
Governor Blunt was the first speaker, and today's featured quote underscores the deleterious effects the metal tariffs are having both on current automobile production in North America and on the outlook for U.S. legislation to implement the new North American agreement, USMCA.  Here is more from the Governor's remarks last Thursday:

We're earnest supporters of the USMCA, and we'll be encouraging the Congress to pass the implementing legislation as quickly as possible.  But we do so with some caveats, and that is that the continued imposition of the steel and aluminum tariffs, particularly on Canada and Mexico, are extremely harmful to our industry and risk undermining all of the potential benefits of the USMCA. 

They are also unnecessary.  In the automotive sector, the new rule of origin has a first ever aluminum and steel provision, which, we think, does everything you need to do and more to ensure that an appropriate amount of North American steel and aluminum - more than 70 percent in fact - is from North America.  
 
As he explained, steel prices in the United States jumped "the moment the President announced the tariffs."  As a result, it costs roughly $464 more to produce a passenger vehicle in the U.S. now than it did before the steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect.  Cars are low margin products, and U.S. cars are now less competitive as a result of the national security tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, Governor Blunt said.  
 
BENEFITS OF THE AGREEMENT
Governor Blunt began his presentation with some of the reasons why the American Automotive Policy Council strongly supports the USMCA and why he and his colleagues will be urging Congress to approve the agreement and pass an implementing bill.  Specifically, he praised the USMCA for:  
 
Market Access.  "The market access we have in NAFTA was preserved, and that's important to us," he said.  He explained that there are only 14 markets in the world that support sales of a million or more vehicles a year, and Canada and Mexico are two of them.
 
Standards. "The U.S. never had an agreement that explicitly stated that our trading partner would accept products built to U.S. safety standards, and the USMCA does that," he said.  And
 
A Currency Provision.  The American Automotive Policy Council has long argued for the inclusion of currency language in trade agreements, that is, language to address the challenges that arise when a trading partner manipulate its currency to gain a trade advantage.  "The currency provisions of USMCA," Governor Blunt said, "are the strongest of any free trade agreement in the world."  
COMMENT
The USMCA is about production and trade in North America.  It's about the commercial relationships that link the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.  It is also about other things, however, from the global competitiveness of those three economies to U.S. efforts to lay the foundation for future agreements.  We are not talking about abstract, distant negotiations.  The reference rather is to sought-after agreements that are already on America's negotiating agenda.  Across the Atlantic, automobile standards are bound to be part of the negotiations between the United States and the European Union. 

And across the Pacific, the USMCA's language on currency is likely to arise in the talks with Japan.  We will be surprised if it is not.

That said, the immediate challenge for the Administration and for all of those who support the USMCA is getting Congress to approve it.  Given the tensions that define American politics in 2019, that was never going to be an easy lift: not for the Administration, not for Congressional leaders, and not for the businesses that depend on North American trade.  In the Q&A session that concluded last Thursday's GBD event, a reporter asked the panelists if their support for the USMCA is, in effect, conditional on the Administration lifting the national security tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico.  This was Governor Blunt's response:

The tariffs are harmful, but a scenario where we didn't have USMCA or NAFTA would be even worse.  So we certainly encourage Members to support the USMCA.  We would urge them to make their concerns known to the Administration about the impact that tariffs are having.  ... Our support for USMCA is not contingent on removal of the tariffs, but we certainly think the Administration runs the risk of undermining the benefits of the agreement if they continue to impose the tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
SOURCES & LINKS
Governor Blunt on the USMCA and the Metal Tariffs.  This is a link to the GBD transcript of Government Blunt's opening presentation at the GBD colloquium A North American Checklist.
 
North American Checklist takes you to the page on the GBD website with materials from this event.  These include full audio (mp3) recordings of each segment of January 24 event, including the remarks of each of the speakers and the concluding Q&A session.


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R. K. Morris, Editor
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