Economics is famous for being the dismal science. Sadly, recent work highlighting the slowdown in productivity growth stretching back to the 1950s is no exception. But I take a more cheerful view because of the great productivity gains promised by the pandemic-induced jump in working from home. Working from home (WFH) increased about tenfold following the outbreak of the pandemic and has settled in at about five times its pre-pandemic level (see Chart 1). This could counter slowing productivity and deliver a surge in economic growth over the next few decades. If AI yields additional output, the era of slow growth could be over. The decomposition of economic growth by Nobel laureate Robert Solow, one of the most famous economists of all time, guides my analysis. Solow’s 1957 classic paper highlights how growth comes from both the increase in factor inputs like labour and capital and from raw productivity growth. I hang my analysis on his framework by highlighting in turn how each of these factors will promote faster growth. Click here to read full article derived from imf.org.

The 29th Session of the Committee on Agriculture (COAG) opened today at the Rome headquarters of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), seeking to address the urgent need to transform agrifood systems amid persistently high global hunger figures and mounting challenges. As a governing body of FAO, COAG provides guidance on agriculture-related policies, reviews global agricultural issues and trends, and advises on emerging topics. Its key roles include providing technical advice on matters related to crops, livestock, food safety, nutrition, rural development, natural resource management and other interconnected issues. This year’s meeting, held in hybrid form until 4th October, is taking place amid severe pressure arising from the increasing impacts of the climate crisis, conflicts and economic downturns. With just six years left to achieve the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), food insecurity around the world remains a major concern. Click here to read full article derived from fao.org.

South Africa has a massive infrastructure problem. Roads, electricity supply and water management are just three areas in which there is mounting evidence of collapse and decay. This is true for big cities like Johannesburg as well as small towns and rural areas. This is a problem because infrastructure like this has huge economic benefits. Having water and electricity enables firms to run smoothly. Local roads improve mobility and access to markets. A study by South Africa’s Financial and Fiscal Commission in 2018 showed that infrastructure spending had a statistically significant positive impact on local employment and economic growth. Responsibility for maintaining these essential services lies with South Africa’s 257 municipalities. Funding comes from two pots: central government allocation; and revenue raised locally through the delivery of services. Click here to read full article derived from theconversation.com.

The full control that Grindrod Limited will be taking at Maputo port’s Terminal de Carvão da Matola Limitada (TCM), at a cost of R1.3 billion, underscores the increasing preference South African businesses have for Mozambique's trade infrastructure. The acquisition of the remaining 35% stake in the entity comes at a time when the Port of Maputo is emerging as a formidable competitor to South Africa, Tom Gould has written in BusinessLive. The Matola terminal, currently operating as a sub-concession of the Port of Maputo, is already partially owned by Grindrod. The report adds that in 2023, Grindrod's operations at the Maputo terminals experienced a 28% year-on-year increase in cargo handling, as shippers sought alternatives to South Africa’s congested ports. Over the last two decades, the Port of Maputo has attracted approximately $870 million in private investment, according to Osório Lucas, CEO of the Maputo Port Development Company (MPDC). Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

South Africa's agricultural sector is currently in what some would consider a relatively quiet period before we start the busy period again in a few weeks. Farmers will soon be tilling the land for summer crops from mid-October. Towards the end of November, the table grape industry will also start with its harvesting period, and there will be more activities from that period onwards. The winter crop is the main crop currently in season, with farmers starting the season in May. Indications are that the winter crop is in reasonably good condition in some regions of South Africa, although the start of the season was challenging. On September 26, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted South Africa's 2024-25 winter crop by 2% from August to 2,72 million tonnes. This placed the projected harvest only negligibly (i.e., 0.04%) less than the previous season. This winter crop encompasses wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. The upward revisions in the CEC’s latest projections were mainly on wheat, canola and sweet lupines. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

A few days ago, we commented that India's possible removal of the rice import ban would add further downward pressure on global rice prices, which supports the South African consumer. India has now removed the export ban; thus, it's appropriate that we present an updated version of that note. The disruptions in the primary grain supplies always spark fear of food security. Indeed, in July 2023, India sparked fresh concerns about global food security as the world was readjusting from the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war on global grain supplies and prices. The country placed a ban on the non-basmati white and broken rice. This affected category typically accounted for 45% of the 22 million tonnes of rice that India exports to the global market annually. The rationale cited in media articles at the time was that India's government was worried about inflation ahead of the upcoming elections. Click here to read full Agricultural Trade Digest by Wandile Sihlobo. And click here to read South African consumers set to benefit from global drop in rice prices.

South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. There are two more monthly reports to follow. Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon be in the optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season from mid-October, we thought there would be no major revisions of the production figures at this late stage. But this has not been a typical season, and the lower producer deliveries we have been observing over the past few weeks are not only a function of on-farm storage but a poor harvest. Indeed, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in various regions. This afternoon, South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee lowered again the 2023-24 summer grain and oilseeds production estimate by 2% from last month to 15,45 million tonnes. The major downward revision was in maize, sunflower seed, and groundnut harvest. The 2023-24 summer grain and oilseeds harvest is now down 23% from the previous season. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Disruptions in major grain supplies always give rise to fears of food insecurity. In July 2023, India sparked fresh concerns as the world was adjusting to the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war on global grains supplies and prices. India placed an export ban on non-basmati white and broken rice. Global rice prices rallied in the following months, as many were concerned about possible supply shortages. The worries were not misplaced; India accounts for roughly 26% of global rice production. The rationale cited in media articles at the time was that India’s government was worried about inflation ahead of the upcoming elections. Fortunately, there was a quick adjustment of supply chains. Other rice exporters such as Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Myanmar had a good crop in the 2023-24 season, which helped to ease the fears and to avail the supplies. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for mg.co.za.

South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. Given that we are at the tail end of the season, and will soon be in the mid-October optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season, we thought there would be no more major revisions of the production figures at this late stage. But this has not been a typical season, and the lower producer deliveries we have been observing over the past few weeks are not only a function of on-farm storage but a poor harvest. Indeed, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in various regions. On September 26, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered the 2023-24 maize harvest to 12,8 million tonnes, down 2% from last month and 22% from the previous season. This sharp decline in harvest prospects shows the harsh impact of the drought. Of the current estimate, white maize is about 6,08 million tonnes (down 2% m/m), with yellow maize at 6,72 million tonnes (down 2% m/m). Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo derived from mg.co.za.

KwaZulu-Natal Transport MEC Siboniso Duma says the provincial government has put measures in place to respond to the adverse weather conditions expected next week. Thousands of motorists were stranded in a snowstorm on the N3 highway last week. The SA Weather Service warns of more potential snow. Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses the damage the adverse weather conditions caused on farmers. Click here to watch. Watch Snow | Disastrous impact on agriculture - Wandile Sihlobo weighs in here. And farmers bear the brunt of severe weather discussed this with eNCA here. 

Canola is one of South Africa’s agricultural success stories. Since South African farmers planted the crop commercially on 17k hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 165k hectares in 2024-25. There has been a switch from some traditional winter wheat and barley growing areas to canola because of price competitiveness. Canola is a winter crop. Hence, production is primarily in the Western Cape, a winter rainfall region in South Africa. The catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings, among other things, is a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake. South Africa is now a net canola exporter, having exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium in the recent past. Considering the recent expansion in area plantings, and expected better yields, South Africa’s 2024-25 canola production is forecast at 294k tonnes. This is the largest harvest on record, up 25% year-on-year. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. There are two more monthly reports to follow. Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon be in the optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season from mid-October, we thought there would be no major revisions of the production figures at this late stage. But this has not been a typical season, and the lower producer deliveries we have been observing over the past few weeks are not only a function of on-farm storage but a poor harvest. Indeed, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in various regions. Click here to listen to full podcast – Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

In my column a few weeks ago, I highlighted the need for South Africa to make the most of its membership in various international 'clubs.' South Africa is very well placed, as we are direct members of BRICS, the African Union, the G20, and beneficiaries of preferential trade terms with the US under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). South Africa may be a relatively small player on the global stage, but our membership in these associations can be beneficial if we manage to secure tangible trade benefits from them. We took advantage of hosting the AGOA and BRICS summits in 2023 as we pushed the point of intra-BRICS trade and greater AGOA utilisation. Some progress, albeit slow, is being made to remove non-tariff trade barriers as a result. Next year, South Africa will take over from Brazil to host the G20. This is a significant opportunity. The G20 comprises 19 of the largest economies in the world plus the EU and the African Union. Click here to read full column by Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff.

South Africa will need to expedite reforms that can boost economic growth to sustain investor inflows that have flooded in since the formation of a coalition government, according to the world’s largest investment banks. Since the African National Congress aligned with business-friendly parties after losing its outright majority in May 29 elections, South African markets have been on a tear. The rand has gained 5% to the dollar, local-currency bonds have outpaced all peers in an emerging-market index with returns of 24% in greenback terms, and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has hit successive record highs, delivering a 15.7% return in dollar terms. Deputy President Paul Mashatile and a delegation of ministers are in London this week to secure fresh capital from the likes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group. Click here to read full article derived from engineeringnews.co.za.

Whether South Africa's agriculture does have any future in global markets in the face of deepening geopolitical frictions among major economies, it all depends on what the country's leaders do to prepare for an uncertain future. This was the opinion of Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz). Sihlobo said success was not guaranteed. “It is a product of the combination of a clear reading of today's trends and how these will shape the future of global markets, how they envision South Africa's place in this fast-changing global economic order, the choice of policy actions, and daring speed. “What made us successful yesterday may not be adequate for the challenges ahead,” Sihlobo said. Agbiz said South Africa stood at a crossroads where a bold, export-driven strategy was no longer optional but essential. The agricultural organisation said as the global trade landscape shifted. Click here to read full article derived from motoring.co.za.

Strike will impact late citrus containers, but the last conventional vessel of the season is expected to discharge without incident. The weekly South African conventional shipping programme for South African citrus to the US will conclude next week (week 41), when the last vessel is expected to discharge at the Port of Philadelphia. MSC Houston Port of Cape Town Summer Citrus from South Africa going to Philadelphia. Citrus sources have said the arrival and discharge of the vessel would not be affected by the US port strike, currently hitting facilities across the East Coast. Gerrit van der Merwe, chairman of the South African Citrus Growers’ Association, said there were still considerable volumes of late season Valencias on container vessels headed for the US market. “These volumes have been shipped in containers and will only be able to discharge once the ports start operation again,” he outlined. Read full article by fruitnet.com here.

Agriculture leaders see considerable potential for red meat exports and the export of live animals to the Middle East, especially from the Eastern Cape. Brent McNamara, CEO of Agri Eastern Cape, recently told the national executive of the Red Meat Producers’ Organisation that South Africa had exported 17 loads of B-grade bulls to Mauritius, each containing about 700 animals, with only a 1% mortality rate. In the Middle East, the demand for live animals is growing. Agri Eastern Cape was instrumental in facilitating sheep exports from East London with the meat broker Al Mawashi, which commenced in 2019 and was subject to sustained legal action from the National Council of Societies for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (NSPCA). One outflow of the prolonged lawfare between Al Mawashi and the NSPCA was the formulation by the national department of agriculture of an export protocol for live animals to address animal welfare concerns. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za. 

The agricultural sector must dismantle its silos, as working together will enable role-players to effectively tackle the critical challenges of food insecurity and climate change that threaten our future. This was the pressing message shared by Dr Mathews Phosa, chairman of the Agricultural Development Agency (Agda), at the organisation’s annual general meeting. Attended by various stakeholders, industry experts and farmers, the gathering, hosted in Centurion, critically unpacked barriers that have long kept different sectors of agriculture isolated. “Our efforts in building an institutional framework have been geared towards driving inclusive and sustainable growth, a goal that aligns with global development ambitions,” Phosa said. He further added that Agda’s initiatives have included clearing and planting hectares of land and creating jobs, demonstrating their commitment to community empowerment and economic development, while acknowledging the challenges the sector faces. Click here to read full article derived from foodformzansi.co.za.

We have just returned from representing South Africa at the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York. The General Assembly was preceded by the Summit of the Future convened by the UN Secretary-General to forge a new international consensus on the most pressing issues facing our world today. There was a reflection on the current geopolitical situation that gives rise to the challenges that many countries are facing, including national security, peace, economic development and the high cost of living. The Summit aimed to mobilise greater support for the achievement by 2030 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Many countries, particularly those with developing economies, are falling behind in meeting their targets, mainly due to a lack of funds. The situation was made worse when scarce resources had to be re-directed to fight the COVID pandemic. This has meant that targets on poverty eradication, quality healthcare and actions against climate change are far from being met. Read full statement from the desk of the President here. 

The potential opening of markets in China, India, and other parts of Asia could be a "total game changer" for South Africa's rapidly growing blueberry industry. This was the key takeaway from a panel discussion at the recent Fall Creek South Africa Connect Day, held at the company's facilities in Paarl. Market access and the development of new blueberry varieties were central themes of the conversation. Nick Bowen, Grower Support Representative at Fall Creek South Africa, moderated the discussion with panellists Elzette Schutte from BerriesZA, Craig Schaefer from the exporter Core Fruit, Jean Kotze from Fall Creek South Africa, and Zac Bard, Executive at Westfalia Fruit and Chairperson of the World Avocado Organization. The panel explored significant trends shaping both local and global blueberry markets, particularly how they impact South Africa. Schaefer noted that consistency is the prevailing trend, especially in the Sekoya program. Click here to read full article derived from freshplaza.com.

This report provides a comprehensive update on South Africa’s logistics network and international trade landscape. National ports faced delays due to weather, equipment failures, and congestion, with Cape Town and Durban being the most affected. Meanwhile, port connectivity continued to decline, as shown in UNCTAD's Liner Shipping Connectivity Index for Q3 2024. Global terminal operators are gaining interest in South Africa to improve efficiency, while container ship orders are surging worldwide. Air cargo volumes at ORTIA saw positive growth, driven by e-commerce. Cross-border road freight experienced minor delays at South African borders, while transit times improved across the SADC region. The report concludes with concerns over shipping overcapacity and service quality, urging South Africa to modernise port infrastructure to stay competitive in global trade. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

On 19 December 2022, several significant amendments to South Africa’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism regime, particularly related to the Financial Intelligence Centre Act (FICA), came into effect. The grace period for compliance has now expired, and the Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC) is actively enforcing these regulations. This has considerable implications for agricultural businesses engaged in high-value transactions exceeding R100,000. Koos Nel, CEO of Agri X says “The agricultural sector, with its frequent high-value transactions—such as auctioneers of livestock, game, and trading of agricultural implements—is particularly impacted. Businesses that fall within the newly defined accountable institutions must comply with FICA regulations to avoid substantial penalties and administrative sanctions. Click here to read full press release by Agri X.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

AgriSA Green Horizons Congress

9 - 10 October 2024 | V&A Waterfront Cape Town

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Sustainability Summit to Address Key Global Challenges in Water, Energy, Transport, Agriculture, and Smart City Infrastructure

15 October 2024 | Emperors Palace

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RPO Conference

17 October 2024 | Nampo, Bothaville

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Emergency AgriClimate Summit 24

18 October 2024 | Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria

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GOSA Workshop: Geared for innovation

24 October 2024 | NAMPO Park

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SAIAE & PASAE International Symposium 2024

23 – 25 October 2024 | Grabouw, Western Cape

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AFMA Symposium 2024

31 October 2024 | CSIR International Convention Centre

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C&I Solar + Storage Summit

19-20 November 2024 | The Maslow Hotel, Johannesburg

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Shape Africa’s Agricultural Future at the Annual African Agri Investment Indaba 2024

18 – 20 November 2024 | Cape Town International Convention Centre

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• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.