Global debt declined slightly in 2023, dropping to 237% of GDP, as revealed by the latest IMF Global Debt Database. This decrease was primarily driven by a significant 2.8 percentage-point reduction in private debt, which fell below 2019 levels, counterbalancing the rise in public debt. Weak growth prospects were identified as the main driver, with households and businesses opting to repay debt rather than borrow. The impact of unexpected inflation on debt erosion, which played a substantial role in 2021-2022, diminished in 2023. Despite this improvement, global non-financial corporate and household debt remains high, exceeding $150 trillion. Managing this elevated debt requires a balance of structural policies to boost sustainable growth and targeted fiscal measures to mitigate public finance risks. The IMF’s reports, including the Fiscal Monitor and Global Financial Stability Report, emphasise the urgency of addressing these challenges to foster inclusive and enduring economic stability. Click here to read full article derived from imf.org.

Abdulrahman Alfadley, the Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture was speaking as the 16th Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) got underway in the capital of the Middle Eastern country. The meeting, according to UNCCD, represents a “moonshot moment to raise global ambition and accelerate action on land and drought resilience through a people-centered approach.” Globally up to 40 per cent of the world's land is degraded, which means its biological or economic productivity has been reduced. This has dire consequences for the climate, biodiversity and people’s livelihoods. Droughts, which is a priority issue at COP16, are becoming more frequent and severe, increasing by 29 per cent since 2000 due to climate change and unsustainable land management. The UN desertification convention was agreed 30 years ago and the organization’s current Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw highlighted the continued importance of restoring land lost to drought and desertification. Read full article by news.un.org here.

Concerns grow in South Africa as Donald Trump threatens tariff hikes on Brics countries. South African president Cyril Ramaphosa has said he will seek direct talks with the new Trump administration to alleviate any possible threat that proposed tariff policies hold for the country’s exports. It comes as South Africa assumes the chair of the next G-20 Summit, which will be held in the country in November 2025. There is a mounting fear that South Africa’s participation in AGOA (African Growth and Opportunities Act) could be under threat. Political observers have pointed out that hosting G-20 could give the country breathing space, with the new US administration potentially waiting until after the event to consider participation in AGOA and tariff changes. “South Africa will have to use this period well to avoid putting billions of rands of South Africa’s exports at serious risk,” observers noted. Fresh produce exporters are hoping that they can retain benefits under AGOA. “The entire South African citrus export programme to the USA, as well as growth in stone fruit, grapes and other minor exports are at risk,” said fruit industry sources. Click here to read full article by fruitnet.com.

Two days ago, on the 1st of December 2024, South Africa assumed the Presidency of the G20 group of countries. The G20 comprises many of the world's largest developing and developed economies. It was established to tackle pressing global economic and financial issues. Together, G20 members account for around 85 percent of global GDP and 75 percent of international trade. The grouping therefore plays a critical role in influencing global policy making and fostering global economic stability. Decisions taken by the G20 have a direct impact on the lives of all members of the global community. It has a wide agenda that now includes trade sustainable development, health, agriculture, energy, the environment, climate change and anti-corruption. South Africa’s G20 Presidency takes place at a moment in which the world is facing severe challenges. The climate change crisis is worsening. Across the world, billions of people are affected by underdevelopment, inequality, poverty, hunger and unemployment. The outlook for global economic growth remains subdued, and many economies carry the burden of unsustainable levels of debt. Geopolitical instability, conflict and war are causing further hardship and suffering. Click here to read full article issued by The Presidency.

South Africa’s agricultural sector, a cornerstone of the nation’s economy, is facing a significant downturn. In the third quarter of 2024, agricultural output plummeted by 28.8%, contributing to an unexpected 0.3% contraction in GDP. This decline highlights the sector’s vulnerability to climatic, economic, and market shocks, raising urgent questions about the sustainability of agricultural production in the country. The recent downturn can be attributed to several factors. Severe dry or drought conditions have significantly impacted maize and soybean production, which together account for nearly 70% of South Africa’s field crop output. This has left farmers grappling with reduced yields and heightened financial pressures. The livestock sector has also faced major challenges, including outbreaks of diseases such as avian influenza and foot and mouth, which have disrupted production and supply chains. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Agricultural Economist and Policy Analyst Thapelo Machaba.

South Africa's agriculture has had mixed fortunes this year. The mid-summer drought negatively affected field crops, with livestock also hampered by the animal disease. Fortunately, the horticultural sub-sector has had a fairly more positive year with decent harvests in various fruits. Several high-frequency data releases these past few quarters have mirrored this environment of mixed fortunes. But the trade data for the third quarter of the year paints an even more upbeat story of recovery in the sector's export performance. According to data from Trade Map, South Africa's agricultural exports were at US$4,12 billion in the third quarter, a 5% increase relative to the same period in 2023. The cumulative export value for the first three quarters of 2024 is up 4% from the same period last year, at US$10,55 billion. This reflects an uptick in the volume of various agricultural exports and the price surge in some products. Moreover, while logistics infrastructure efficiency remains a primary concern for the farming sector, the ongoing collaboration between Transnet, private industry, and the various logistical organizations assists in ensuring the continuous flow of products, even if there are delays in specific periods. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo. 

On November 25, 2024, the Pretoria office of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published a report on South Africa's maize market. It highlighted the difficulty caused by the recent mid-summer drought, which led to a 23% decline in maize production to 12,72 million tonnes. South Africa was not alone in this experience; Zimbabwe lost roughly 60% of its maize harvest, while Zambia lost half of its crop. Malawi, Mozambique, and others also experienced significant crop losses. This meant the Southern Africa region would require maize imports to meet its annual needs. The USDA report stated, "South Africa could import approximately 800,000 metric tons of corn in marketing year (May 2024 – April 2025)". This statement raised concerns about South Africa's maize supplies. Furthermore, the maize prices continued to surge, with white maize trading at just over R6 300 per tonne while yellow maize trades at over R5 000 per tonne. These price increases partly reflect the tight maize supplies, weaker domestic currency and stronger regional demand. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa's agriculture has had a challenging year, with the El Niño-induced mid-summer drought weighing on the 2023-24 summer crop production and animal diseases still lingering in the livestock industry. Ordinarily, in seasons like this, one would expect the sector to underperform. Still, the extent of the decline in the country's agricultural fortunes in the third quarter is surprising. The data released by Statistics South Africa shows that the country's agricultural gross value added contracted by -28,8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter, following -4,8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. Later, we will have more to say about the data, which requires a closer look. However, the general trend of the sector can partly be explained by these factors. The field crops' underperformance is mainly in the production of summer grains and oilseeds. For example, South Africa's 2023-24 summer crop harvest is down 23% from the previous season, at 15,40 million tonnes. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

2024 has been a year of mixed fortunes for the agricultural sector. The mid-summer El Niño-induced drought negatively impacted summer crops, while events like the ongoing animal disease woes, the seemingly endless logistical crisis, high interest rates, and uncertainty about the national government all weighed heavily on the sector. The resulting despondency was reflected in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) for Q2 2024, which slumped to its lowest level in 15 years. These challenges – and an expected contraction in the sector for the year, which followed a contraction in the previous year – have played out in subdued bank performance, according to data from the Banking Association of SA (BASA) for June 2023 to June 2024. A period of consolidation was evident with exposure to the sector drifting sideways. Demand for credit was down but deposits were at an all-time high, which suggests that farmers were cautious and delayed capital expenditure over the period. More recently, though, sentiment began improving. Click here to read the full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

For much of the past few weeks, we have focused on the summer grains and oilseed, the plantings of which have recently started across South Africa. But other equally essential crops are winter grains and oilseeds. After a reasonably good production period during the winter season, the farmers are now busy harvesting the 2024-25 winter crops. Unlike other crops where we monitor the production conditions nationally, with winter crops, we pay close attention to the Western Cape because of the province's significant contribution to these crops. For example, about 70% of the winter wheat plantings for the 2024-25 season are in the Western Cape. The area planted for barley, canola, and oats is also significant in the province as a winter rainfall region. Other major winter crop-producing provinces are the Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo, and the production in these provinces is mainly under irrigation. This year's primary challenge for these provinces was the mid-summer drought, which made farmers risk averse, and when the 2024-25 winter season started, they reduced the area plantings. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa’s decision to ease possible maize imports from the U.S. is not necessarily bad. It is a “safety option” in recognition that our white maize supplies are tight. We also face strong demand from broader Southern Africa, whose maize production is down massively because of the drought earlier this year. Such imports will also depend on whether many American farmers planted white corn. Remember, the biggest white maize producers in the world are South Africa and Mexico. The U.S. and South Americans are big on yellow corn — which is for feed and industrial use. Still, with all the tight supply issues, we have continued to export maize to the Southern African region to stabilize food supplies. We forecast South Africa’s overall maize exports at 1.9 million tonnes through to April 2025 marketing year (about 1.2 million tonnes is white maize and 700k tonnes is yellow). Over a million tonnes have already been exported, mainly to the Southern Africa region. So, any possible imports from the U.S. will help ease the maize needs in the coastal areas, and some may be for reexports to the continent. Click here to listen to full podcast – Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

2024 has been a year of mixed fortunes for the agricultural sector. To help us look at what to expect from the South African agricultural sector in 2025, CNBC Africa is joined by Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and John Hudson, Head of Agriculture at Nedbank Commercial Banking. CNBC Africa. Click here to watch. And watch discussion | SA to import genetically modified maize from the US - South Africa is expected to import hundreds of tons of genetically modified maize from the US. This comes after a mid-summer drought that caused a 22-percent drop in domestic production. The Agriculture Department says it has resolved all matters that are a cause for concern regarding the genetically modified crop. AgriBusiness Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo had a discussion with eNCA's Sindi Mabe. Click here to watch. 

According to an article by Wolfram Schlenker, a professor at Columbia University, and David Lobell of Stanford University, published in Environmental Research Letters, climate change could cause medium-term production declines in sub-Saharan Africa. The implications for this region, where agriculture accounts for 40% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in some countries, could be severe. Furthermore, agriculture is responsible for 80% of employment in some of these countries, making most of the population directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture for their survival. South Africa makes a significant contribution to food security in sub-Saharan Africa through exports. Our country takes the lead in respect of production of grain and oilseeds. From May 2001 to August 2024, South Africa imported only ten million tonnes of maize, compared to total exports of maize and maize products of 47,6 million tonnes over the same period. Of this, a total of 3,4 million tonnes were exported to African countries. Thus, South Africa is increasingly taking the lead in promoting food security in sub-Saharan African countries. Click here to read full article by Wessel Lemmer, general manager, Agbiz Grain for the Agbiz Grain Quarterly November 2024 issue.

With South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s state visit to China concluded, the next stop should be the Middle East. But before transitioning to the Middle East, let’s briefly examine China’s agricultural trade. Trade data provides South Africa with some signposts of what to do next: aggressively drive exports to the Chinese market. This market, with over US$200 billion in annual agricultural imports, currently regards South Africa as a small player, holding just 0,4% of the market share. From now on, the focus should remain on nudging China to lower import tariffs on various agricultural products and addressing the phytosanitary barriers for some products. This effort will build on the success of the existing export market possibilities for South African beef, avocados, and wool, among others. As technical experts from various departments work on implementing the agreements from the recent state visit, the political leadership of the Department of Agriculture, Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, and the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, should also refresh their focus on the Middle East. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo for the Agbiz Grain Quarterly November 2024 issue.

SAIIA Chief Executive Elizabeth Sidiropoulos discusses South Africa’s goals as it assumes the G20 presidency in 2025, including poverty, inequality and climate change. South Africa’s transformation into a democracy in 1994 saw it become a very active global player in various forums. In 1999, when the G20 was established, we had a finance minister – Trevor Manuel – and president, Thabo Mbeki, who wanted to make an impact on the international financial system to help Africa and the developing world. Manuel and successive reserve bank governors were very active in the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and G20 in promoting Africa’s and South Africa’s case to build more proactive African engagement. The 2008 global financial crisis originated in the North in a particular context and the responses devised were not necessarily applicable to African circumstances. South Africa contended that regulatory changes introduced in response, such as the Basel rules on correspondent banking, had unintended consequences for Africa and the developing world. Click here to read full article derived from saiia.org.za.

South Africa’s government said there are no plans to create a so-called Brics currency, after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on members of the economic bloc that back the creation of an alternative to the US dollar. “Recent misreporting has led to the incorrect narrative that Brics is planning to create a new currency,” South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation, known as Dirco, said in a statement. “This is not the case. The discussions within Brics focus on trading among member countries using their own national currencies.” The rand eased in line with its emerging-market peers, which weakened on the back of renewed dollar strength. The South African currency fell 0.4% to R18.12 by 10:20 a.m. in Johannesburg. Brics, which groups developing market powers Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, has called for reforms to the international financial system, while stopping short of agreeing on the adoption of a new currency. Read full article first published in moneyweb.co.za here.

Joint statement by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Department of Health and the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. As the holiday season approaches, the public and travellers are warned about rabies in dogs, Cape fur seals and other animals in South Africa. Collectively, these departments wish to alert members of the public about high-risk rabies areas in South Africa where the disease occurs in dogs, Cape fur seals and other animals. Rabies is a deadly viral disease that affects all mammals and can be transmitted from animals to humans. The virus is transmitted in the saliva of infected animals through bites, scratches, and licks. Rabies affects the brain and is fatal once a human or animal shows clinical signs, however, it can be prevented through vaccination of animals and immediate medical attention for people exposed to an infected animal. Click here to read full statement.

The South African Ports Regulator (SAPR) has granted an inflation-related 4.4% average tariff increase for the services rendered to port users by the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) for the 2025/26 period. SAPR CEO, Mukondeleli Johanna Mulaudzi, announced the regulator’s official record of decision in a meeting with port stakeholders and the media on Friday. This comes after the ports authority submitted a tariff application requesting an average tariff increase of 7.90% for the period April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026, along with indicative tariff increases of 18.61% for the period April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027 and 2.52% for April 1, 2027 to March 31, 2028. The application was filed on August 1, 2024. Mulaudzi said the regulator had come to its decision after reviewing the application, stakeholder submissions and the updated inflation data highlighted in National Treasury’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), as well as applying its tariff methodology and strategy. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

South Africa is looking to import maize from the US – where it is called corn – for the first time in seven years as supplies tighten in the wake of last summer’s searing El Niño-induced drought, which has seen futures prices for the staple white variety scale record highs. Agricultural economists caution that this is a protective measure that also reflects the far worse situation in other countries in the region. The maize crop in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi was laid to waste last summer, triggering an unfolding humanitarian disaster. “Import permits for genetically engineered (GE) corn from the United States are once again issued by South Africa. After a mid-summer drought that caused a 22% drop in production, South Africa needs to import corn to supplement domestic production,” the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said earlier this week. “Domestic prices have surged due to the tight supply and greater South African exports to meet regional demand.” Click here to read full article derived from dailymaverick.co.za.

The ambition comes as new figures from the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) confirm South Africa’s position as the largest grower in the southern hemisphere, with 89,700 marketable tonnes produced in 2023/24. That puts it comfortably ahead of Chile (57,000 tonnes), Argentina (30,000 tonnes) and Australia (7,309 tonnes). South Africa has seen a steady increase in production since the turn of the century as farmers expand their operations, invest in new technology and cultivars, and adopt more efficient growing techniques. In 2000, South African raisin production was just 38,142 tonnes, but that rose to 50,628 tonnes in 2010 and 85,080 tonnes in 2020. Weather permitting, output is expected to increase again in 2024/25, with healthy vines reported and a crop in the region of 90,000-110,000 tonnes forecast. Suppliers believe they have a key point of difference due to the fact that climatic conditions allow South Africa to produce near zero-residue product and an unrivalled portfolio that includes everything from Thompsons and Flame to Goldens, Currants and Sultanas. Click here to read full article by fruitnet.com.

There is simply no way that we can raise the capital required to revitalise South Africa’s ports or bring in the expertise needed without private-sector participation. To combat the declining state of South Africa's port and rail network, the Presidency tasked a group of top academics and logistics experts to compile a 'Freight Logistics Road Map' that would guide us in the turnaround strategy. When Cabinet adopted the road map last year, it marked a seminal point in our economic development as it set the agenda to migrate from an outdated system of state monopolies towards a competitive system that would attract private sector investment. Among the recommendations, rail would move towards an open-access system whereby an independent regulator determines the costs and conditions that Transnet and any third party would use to operate trains on our railways in an open and competitive system. The building blocks are rapidly being put in place to accommodate this. Click here to read full article by Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff.

High court drama expected as the battle for investment in Durban container terminal heats up. International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI) is tomorrow (4 December) launching its appeal in the Durban High Court over the interdict that is stopping Transnet from implementing the proposed public-private partnership agreement to run Durban Container Terminal Pier 2. The dispute follows the July 2023 decision by Transnet to award ICTSI, a global Top-ten firm that runs 32 port terminals in 19 countries, the contract to run the Container Terminal. An ICTSI statement said this was done following a rigorous and transparent bidding process. Maersk, through its subsidiary APM Terminals, was one of the failed bidders and approached the courts this year to overturn the contract on what ICTSI called a non-material technicality. In October the KwaZulu-Natal High Court ordered Transnet to halt further implementation of the agreement until the matter could be considered in court. Click here to rad full article first published in fruitnet.com. 

Capespan is reshaping Southern Africa's table grape export logistics. In a pioneering move, the company has routed grapes from the Northern Cape and Namibia through Walvis Bay in Namibia, destined for the EU and UK markets. This decision was driven by the poor performance of the South African ports traditionally used by Capespan, alongside the Walvis Bay port being operated by a private company and the introduction and reliability of the additional MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company) services out of Walvis Bay. The MSC service offers a shortened voyage transit time of 12 to 13 days directly to Rotterdam and London Gateway, minimising delays and ensuring fresher produce reaches its destination, at least 8 days shorter than from the Port of Cape Town. Walvis Bay Port is operated by private operator TIL (https://tilgroup.com/), a subsidiary of MSC. Click here to read full article. 

We are excited to announce that Agbiz will be moving to our new office in the week of 2 to 6 December. Our new location will be at Agri-Hub Office Park, Block C, First Floor, 477 Witherite Street, The Willows, Pretoria. If you have any questions or need further information, please reach out to Retha at admin@agbiz.co.za.

Agbiz Grain and the Peritum Agri Institute are collaborating to accelerate the development of grain silo managers in South Africa. Agbiz Grain is an organisation that promotes the shared interests of commercial grain handlers and storage operators, the Agbiz Grain members, by providing support and influencing the grain industry. South Africa produces an average of 13.5 million tonnes of maize and an additional 1.9 million tonnes of wheat annually. In addition, other grains such as barley and sorghum, as well as oilseeds like sunflower, canola, and soybeans, are also cultivated on a large scale. Approximately 70% of the grain and oilseeds produced in South Africa are stored by the twelve members of Agbiz Grain. Collectively, these companies manage 334 silo complexes, which include concrete silos, silo bags, and bunkers. Click here to read full statement and learn more. Registrations close on 24 January 2025. The program begins on 17 February 2025. For more details, visit Peritum Agri’s website or contact marketing@peritumagri.com. 

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

Discover the latest updates and insights from Hortgro in the newest edition of their publication. Click here to read the November 2024 issue of HORTGRO NEWS, featuring the latest industry developments and important information.

ESG & Value Addition in Agriculture Conference 2024

4-5 December 2024 | Garden Court OR Tambo Johannesburg

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NCM 89th AGM & Congress

13-14 March 2025 | Zebula Golf Estate & Spa

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• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
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