Global geopolitical risks remain elevated, raising concerns about their potential impact on economic and financial stability. Shocks such as wars, diplomatic tensions, or terrorism can disrupt cross-border trade and investment. This can hurt asset prices, affect financial institutions, and curtail lending to the private sector, weighing on economic activity and posing a threat to financial stability. Such risks are challenging for investors to price due to their unique nature, rare occurrence, and uncertain duration and scope. This can lead to sharp market reactions when geopolitical shocks materialize. As we show in a chapter of the latest Global Financial Stability Report, stock prices tend to decline significantly during major geopolitical risk events, as measured by more frequent news stories mentioning adverse geopolitical developments and associated risks. The average monthly drop is about 1 percentage point across countries, though it’s a much larger 2.5 percentage points in emerging market economies. Click here to read full report.

Corruption remains a persistent global challenge, with its impacts evolving alongside economic pressure and shifting governance landscape. While some countries are making progress, others are witnessing long-standing achievements come under scrutiny. In this context, there is a growing need to adapt strategies to new realities in our interconnected world. Collective action builds trust, fosters collaboration and innovation, and sustains momentum for achieving successful outcomes. Addressing corruption is critical for fostering a fair and transparent economic environment, which in turn creates jobs, attracts investment, and promotes sustainable development. By reducing economic vulnerabilities and ensuring meaningful job opportunities—particularly for young people and women in developing countries—we can achieve both economic growth and social justice. At the forefront of these discussions is the pressing need to innovate and redefine partnerships and collaborative approaches in the fight against corruption. Click here to read full article derived from blogs.worldbank.org.

The vote on the Fiscal Framework was 194 for and 182 against, thus a slim majority of only 12. However, 24 members of Parliament (MPs) did not vote. A lot of uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) members were absent, and some MPs who spoke against the Budget left the chamber before the vote. Some calculate that if everyone who had spoken against the budget voted, the ‘No’ votes would have been 195! As Wellington has reputedly said after the battle of Waterloo, ‘It was a damn close-run thing’. The Democratic Alliance (DA) and EFF have both indicated they want to challenge the adoption of the Fiscal Framework in the High Court, and the DA proceeded to file papers with the court. There will probably be appeals and cross-appeals, and winding through the courts may take a while. There are still several rounds of approval awaiting the Budget, and the slimness of the margin on the Fiscal Framework vote will make it a closely watched process. Click here to read full report by JP Landman.

Trade between nations is a vital part of economic progress. That is why, as part of our G20 Presidency, South Africa is promoting a trade agenda in which G20 members commit to measures to promote expanded, more inclusive and more sustainable value chains. I recently came across an inspiring story of a farmer from Elukwatini in Mpumalanga that highlights how deepening G20 trade can support the growth of local industry. In February, Bongani Thobela took part in the world’s largest fresh produce trade fair in Germany, a G20 member and the third largest market for South African exports. There he was able to meet potential buyers and has since secured an export license and sent samples of his produce to Germany and China. He was part of an initiative by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition to support local producers to attend international trade fairs and exhibitions to expose them to international markets. This reflects our conviction that greater exports of a more diverse variety of goods and service are essential for the growth of our economy and the creation of more jobs. Click here to read full release by thepresidency.gov.za.

In political economy, there is something called "flooding the zone". Roughly explained, this is when a deluge of information takes people's attention away from what should be a priority. In South Africa's agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously be vigilant and reflect thoughtfully on risks affecting the sector. In recent weeks, the focus has primarily been on trade matters and the U.S. tariffs, understandably so because the U.S. is a valuable market for South Africa's agriculture. The U.S. reciprocal tariffs are imposed when the citrus industry is at its export season; therefore, our focus on these issues should be paramount. Equally, concerns about the sustainability of the Government of National Unity and the fiscal problems that dominate the domestic conversation are warranted as these place a sharp spotlight on South Africa's political futures and the plight of economic renewal. Yet still, we must not allow other important domestic issues affecting the sector to be drowned by political noise. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo. 

Many analysts and observers that have been following global politics have come to a consensus around a few set of facts: (a) that the Trump Administration is seeking to re-set the global trading landscape through trade policy interventions that could fundamentally re-shape investments, trade patterns, and the global economy at large. (b) A consequent retreat of the US from its wider global geo-economic contribution, which effectively diminishes its role from a global to a regional super power, and effectively underscoring the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world. From a South African perspective, the upheaval of the global geo-economic and political landscape creates heightened uncertainty, which demands a set of interventions that can effectively reduce risk, and preserve economic interests, and continue to grow the country’s economic through its export-led strategy. In that sense, the "need for export expansion to new markets" is necessary. To the careful observer, export diversification is not a new conversation, it is a discussion that began well before the anticipated higher tariffs in the U.S. market. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo and Tinashe Kapuya.

Over the weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping correctly remarked that there are 'No Winners' in tariff wars. The full consequences of the unfolding tariff war are yet to be clear on a global growth scale, but they are certainly on the downside. However, a few countries may emerge as winners from a sectoral perspective. Brazil and Argentina are evolving as the leading agricultural exporters to China, as U.S. farmers face higher retaliatory tariffs in China. The Financial Times published an article this past weekend that explains what is unfolding in just these few months. It states that: "Brazil's beef sales to China climbed a third in the first quarter of 2025, compared with a year earlier, while Chinese imports of its poultry increased 19 per cent year on year in March, according to local trade associations. Meanwhile, foreign demand has seen Brazilian soybeans trading at a $1.15 premium to their U.S. counterparts on global markets, having sold at a 25-cent discount only in January." Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

While other countries have taken a confrontational tone in trade policy, SA must continue strengthening relations and widening export opportunities for all the export-reliant sectors of the economy. Agriculture is one sector that largely depends on exports and has benefited immensely from the trade opportunities the SA authorities have successfully negotiated in recent decades. SA must make an accelerated effort to maintain relationships and strengthen friendships. One region that requires some attention is the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), a free-trade customs union that includes Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Eswatini. In 2021 Botswana banned imports of vegetables from SA, which continued until the partial removal of restrictions by President Duma Boko in December. This month the government of Botswana plans to remove the remaining import restrictions on beetroot, butternut, cabbage, carrot, garlic, ginger, green melons, herbs, lettuce, onions, potatoes, sweet pepper, tomatoes and watermelons from SA. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Efforts will intensify to diversify export destinations, targeting markets across Africa, as well as in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas, say SA ministers. The South African government has underscored the urgent need to diversify the country’s agricultural exports in the wake of the US decision to increase tariffs on its trading partners. The progress of South Africa’s agricultural sector has relied partly on exports, which now account for roughly half of the production in value terms. South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a new record of US$13.7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year, according to data from Trade Map. South Africa also imports various agricultural products. In 2024, South Africa’s agricultural imports amounted to US$7.6 billion. The US accounts for 4% of South Africa’s agricultural exports. The biggest agricultural exports to the US are citrus, wine, grapes and nuts. These typically entered the US market duty free, and now fall under the tariff level of between 10% and 31%, which Washington has levied on South Africa. Click here to read full article.

South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds the presidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda. For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities the promotion of policies and investments that can lead to improved food and nutrition security, empowering youth and women to participate in agrifood systems, fostering innovation and the transfer of useful technologies in agriculture industries, and building climate resilience for sustainable food production. Click here to listen to full podcast. 

Analysts stress the urgent need for the diversification of South Africa's agricultural exports. This is despite the 90-day reprieve US President Donald Trump announced a week after he unleashed trade tumult on 75 countries, SA included. Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo emphasises the necessity for SA to diversify its export markets to reduce dependence on the US and protect rural economies.

Agbiz is proud to announce the appointment of Dr Charl David van der Merwe as the new manager of the grain desk, succeeding Wessel Lemmer, who previously led the desk with dedication and expertise, starting on 1 May. With a career spanning over 27 years in the agricultural sector, Dr van der Merwe brings extensive experience in grain handling, procurement, market analysis, and strategic development. His leadership and industry knowledge will be instrumental in advancing Agbiz Grain’s mission of supporting and promoting the interests of its members. Dr van der Merwe has held key roles across the grain value chain, from agricultural economics and commodity management to procurement and strategic business development. His previous positions at major agricultural organisations, including NWK, Suidwes Landbou, Tiger Brands, and CMI, have equipped him with a deep understanding of the challenges and opportunities within the sector. At Agbiz Grain, he will focus on policy advocacy, stakeholder engagement, and industry representation, ensuring that the grain industry remains competitive and sustainable. Click here to read full statement. 

A thriving economy is built on talent. Across Africa, the job market faces a growing shortage of highly skilled professionals in critical fields such as engineering, health, agriculture, digital technologies, and others. A decade ago, a survey by the Africa Investors Council revealed that major companies struggled to recruit qualified talent in these areas, while the African Capacity Building Foundation reported that only about 20 percent of higher education students in sub-Saharan Africa were enrolled in scientific and technological disciplines. Faced with this reality, a quiet yet transformative revolution began with the creation of Africa's Higher Education Centers of Excellence (ACEs) in 2014. With over $657 million from the World Bank and a co-financing of around $72 million from the French Development Agency, the program has enhanced the quality of scientific and technological education through the creation of more than 80 Centers of Excellence across 50 universities in 20 African countries. It has not only transformed higher education but has also strengthened applied research and innovation—key drivers of Africa's competitiveness. Click here to read full blogs.worldbank.org article. 

Over the years, a rules-based global trading system has boosted international commerce and contributed to a gradual, steady decline in tariffs — a tax that countries levy on imported goods. In 2023, about two thirds of world trade occurred without tariffs. In contrast, a sweeping spate of steeper tariffs recently introduced by major economies are raising concerns over escalating trade tensions and their impact on developing countries. In a new report released on 14 April, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) is amping up calls that the poorest and most vulnerable economies be exempt from “reciprocal tariffs”. Such tariffs, currently on pause for 90 days, were calculated at rates to balance bilateral merchandise trade deficits between the United States and 57 of its trading partners, which range from 11% for Cameroon to 50% for Lesotho. The report, entitled “Escalating tariffs: The impact on small and vulnerable economies”, finds that in many cases, reciprocal tariffs risk devastating developing and least developed economies, without significantly reducing US trade deficits or increasing revenue collection. Click here to read full article.

Many of the world’s largest shipping nations decided on Friday to impose a minimum fee of $100 for every ton of greenhouse gases emitted by ships above certain thresholds, in what is effectively the first global tax on greenhouse gas emissions. The International Maritime Organization estimates $11 billion to $13 billion in revenue annually from the fees, with the money to be put into its net zero fund to invest in fuels and technologies needed to transition to green shipping, reward low-emission ships and support developing countries so they aren’t left behind with dirty fuels and old ships. The thresholds set through the agreement will get stricter over time to try to reach the IMO’s goal of net zero across the industry by about 2050. The agreement, reached with the United States notably absent, is expected to be formally adopted at an October meeting to take effect in 2027. The IMO, which regulates international shipping, also set a marine fuel standard to phase in cleaner fuels. Click here to read apnews.com article.

The container ship was halfway across the Atlantic when Donald Trump, during his first term in office, levied tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US from most countries. At the stroke of a pen on a US presidential executive order, about £100,000 was added to the cost of one of the shipments onboard, from the UK advanced materials manufacturer Goodfellow, destined for a US customer. This time, the Cambridge-based company – which supplies scientific materials including metals, alloys and polymers for research – and its customers remembered the sting of experience. Several clients got in touch trying to get ahead of Trump’s threatened second-term tariffs. “We had conversations with people about whether [orders] could be sped up to pull them forward, which is not necessarily an option because of lead times and manufacturing times,” said Andrew Watson, the chief financial officer at Goodfellow. Similar conversations will undoubtedly have taken place at companies around the globe in recent weeks, as suppliers scrambled to move goods to the US before Trump’s much-trailed “liberation day” announcement, trying to dodge higher costs and protect their margins. Click here to read full article derived from theguardian.com.

SA’s agricultural sector stands at a crossroads, requiring fresh market opportunities to sustain growth and resilience in an unpredictable global trade environment. With the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) uncertain, there is an urgent need to establish stronger trade relationships that will secure the sector’s long-term stability. If Agoa is not renewed, billions in export revenue could be at stake, local producers could face higher tariffs, and significant employment losses could follow. Japan, with its strong demand for premium food products, presents a strategic opportunity that we are actively pursuing. From March 15-20 I accompanied deputy president Paul Mashatile on an official visit to Tokyo to explore ways to deepen trade relations in the agricultural sector. Despite the vast potential in this market, engagement at the highest level has been limited, which has delayed key negotiations and hindered broader access for SA agricultural exports. Click here to read full article derived from businesslive.co.za.

Industry body SA Canegrowers implores the South African government to prioritise negotiations with the US on tariff reductions and exemptions to help create certainty in the agriculture industry. This follows the April 2 announcement by the US administration of a 30% tariff on all South African goods imported into the US. The tariff was subsequently suspended for 90 days, with a 10% base tariff remaining in place. “Even a 10% tariff on exports has negative consequences for South African sugarcane growers and the rural economies that depend on sugar production for jobs and livelihoods,” SA Canegrowers says. “The tariffs affirm the urgency to negotiate a new bilateral and mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, as an essential step to secure long-term trade certainty,” the Presidency said in a statement issued on April 3. In its announcement of the tariffs, the US administration said its new tariffs would address unfair disparities and non-tariff barriers imposed by other countries, including South Africa. Click here to read full article.

The number five is often seen as a symbol of balance, progress, and transformation—much like the steady progress the World Bank Group has made since it set up an Outcomes Department five months ago. This new department seeks to elevate the way we measure our impact, strengthening our accountability for results. Just as five fingers help us build and create and the five senses allow us to experience the world around us, the department has worked to lay a strong foundation for the future. In these first few months, the Outcomes Department has reached five key milestones that contribute to the organization’s ongoing focus on measurable impact. From setting up a comprehensive data tracking system to fostering partnerships and improving reporting, each step has been part of our shared effort to build a results-driven path forward. Read more on these milestones, the first steps in a larger journey ahead here. 

South African port activity declined this past week, with total container throughput falling by 12% to 65,039 TEUs. Inclement weather and equipment breakdowns significantly disrupted operations at key terminals, particularly in Cape Town and Durban. Cape Town alone lost over 30 operational hours due to wind-related delays. Despite the dip, next week’s volumes are projected to rise by 40%, with a daily throughput of nearly 13,000 TEUs anticipated. Maersk has responded to the ongoing inefficiencies by rerouting vessels and reducing demurrage-free periods at Durban, Port Elizabeth, and Ngqura in preparation for the reefer season. Inland, rail cargo operations were hindered by cable theft around Pretoria, while the implementation of the Carbon Emission Reduction Tariff has been delayed until July. In the air cargo space, volumes surged by 15% week-on-week at OR Tambo International Airport. Current volumes are now 35% higher than pre-pandemic levels, signalling strong recovery. Click here to read full report.

An urgent appeal has gone out to local shippers, the freight forwarding community and the liner trade serving South Africa’s ports to meet a tight deadline for objecting to the government’s contentious plans for in-shoring cargo movement along the country’s coastline. According to a notification by the Portfolio Committee on Transport, “the time period for interested people and stakeholders to submit written comments on the Merchant Shipping Bill”, has been extended to April 25. Terry Gale of Exporters Western Cape (EWC) said it didn’t give industry much time to object to section B12 of 2023, whereby government wants one shipping line that will be responsible for moving ocean cargo along the country’s coastline, known as “cabotage.” In March, the EWC chairperson warned that cabotage would be “catastrophic” for the freight industry, as essentially it entails a hub port system whereby independent ocean carriers will not be able to call at more than one port on the country’s coastline. He told a gathering of shippers in Cape Town that it would bring about double-handling of cargo and multimodal complexity that would cause further supply chain delays. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

South Africa’s citrus industry is urging the government to speed up talks with the United States after new tariffs threatened to shrink market access and hurt rural livelihoods. In a recent letter, Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), said the U.S. decision to impose a 30% tariff on South African citrus exports could have serious consequences. “The tariffs imposed by the U.S. President will hurt South African citrus farms and the rural communities that depend on them,” Ntshabele warned. He added that while the 90-day reprieve from the tariff hike is welcome, it is only a temporary relief. “The 90-day reprieve is an incentive for SA to expedite negotiations with the U.S. to conclude a lasting solution,” he stated. Ntshabele emphasized that South African citrus growers are not a threat to their American counterparts. He argued that the seasonal nature of the trade benefits both sides. Click here to read full article.

The South African Avocado Growers Association (Saaga) recently hosted an event in George, highlighting the expansion of avocado production in areas such as George, the Helderberg Basin, and Riebeeck Kasteel. The focus was on industry prospects and implications for local farmers. The next Saaga study group session is scheduled for May 6. Stellenbosch University has increased its research initiatives on avocados, particularly in the George region. The university's subtropical research unit has partnered with the international NIK Group to utilize AI-enhanced agridrones capable of lifting 60kg. Initial trials are set for the George area. At the event, Prof André Jooste and Dr Anelle Blanckenberg from Stellenbosch University presented insights. Jooste discussed diversification and market opportunities, emphasizing the need for South African producers to access markets in China and India. Blanckenberg shared updates from a recent research symposium in Tzaneen and outlined planned research in the Southern Cape. Click here to read full article.

The South African table grape industry broke several records this season. Although South Africa’s table grape hectares have shrunk by 2% this past year, the industry recorded the largest national harvest ever. Of a total of 78.9 million cartons (4.5 kg equivalent), which was 4% more than last season, 77.4 million cartons were exported – 5% more than last season, said Jacques Ferreira, commercial affairs manager for the South African Table Grape Industry (Sati). The industry also set a new record for weekly inspection volumes during the peak of the export season – weeks two to six of 2025 – by inspecting more than seven million cartons per week. Sati expects table grape yields to increase further as more vineyards are replaced with higher-yielding cultivars. Inspection volumes have grown by 3.2% in the past 10 years. The volume of exports shipped through the Cape Town Container Terminal and Cape Town Multi-Purpose Terminal combined increased from 82% in 2023/’24 to 90% in 2024/2025. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

In this insightful discussion with Anlie Hattingh on AgriXtra, Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff unpacks the newly signed Expropriation Act, shedding light on its implications for land reform and property rights. While some see the legislation as a step forward, others fear its impact on private ownership. Boshoff provides a balanced perspective, separating fact from fiction and exploring what this means for the agricultural sector. Click here to watch the full interview.

In this insightful interview with Anlie Hattingh, Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff reviews the key milestones and challenges of 2024 while sharing his vision for 2025. The discussion dives into crucial topics such as Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, sustainable practices across agriculture and its value chains, and what lies ahead for the industry. Click here to watch full interview.

Agbiz is pleased to welcome Maphuti Mawasha as our new Finance Manager. She brings over a decade of experience in financial services and business strategy. Her expertise includes budgeting, financial forecasting, and compliance management. Maphuti has worked with top financial institutions, ensuring sound financial oversight. She holds a National Diploma in Public Finance and Accounting and is pursuing a BCom. We thank Phyllis Strydom for her dedication and contributions.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

Transforming Poultry Productivity and Empowering Sustainability in Africa

29-30 April 2025 | The Garden Venue, Johannesburg, South Africa

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BUSA Sustaining Progress Conference 2025

29 May 2025 | Focus Rooms, Modderfontein

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Potatoes SA Innovation Symposium

23 & 24 July 2025 | CSIR Convention Centre, Pretoria

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3rd Annual Food Waste Solutions Summit

26-27 June 2025 | Hotel Sky, Sandton

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International Fresh Produce Association’s Southern Africa Conference

23-24 July 2025 | Pretoria, South Africa

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South African Sugar Technologists’ Association Congress 2025 

12-14 August 2025 | ICC Durban

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• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.