Agricultural bodies warn of ‘catastrophic’ consequences for the fresh produce sector as the US threatens to impose tariffs of up to 50 percent on imports from key trading partners. The past week has seen a flurry of tariff-related activity in the US, adding to concerns and confusion for the fresh produce business in a number of countries around the world. On Saturday, US president Donald Trump threatened a new 30 per cent tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective 1 August, after weeks of negotiations failed to reach mutually agreed outcomes. Both the EU and Mexico called the tariffs “unfair and disruptive” and restated their commitment to securing trade deals before the end of July. “The 30 per cent tariffs threatened by Trump are an unacceptable proposal,” said Cristiano Fini, president of Italian agricultural body Cia. “Europe must be united and not halt negotiations. We must avoid a trade war with the United States, which would be catastrophic for the entire agri-food sector.” Spanish export association Fepex pointed to the major deficit that the US runs with the EU when it comes to fresh produce trade. Click here to read full article.

Agricultural commodity prices continued their downward trend in the second quarter of 2025, with the World Bank’s agricultural price index dropping nearly 7 percent since the start of the year. Food and raw material prices within the index fell by 7 and 1 percent, respectively, while beverage prices fell by 13 percent. The index is projected to decline further in 2025 and 2026, though the outlook remains subject to significant risks. Short term, factors such as macroeconomic conditions, input costs, trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and extreme weather events—especially heat waves—could affect price trajectories. Long term influences include changing climate patterns and greater use of food commodities for biofuels, which may reshape global agricultural markets. Weakening global growth. Global economic growth is projected to slow in 2025, driven by rising trade barriers and ongoing policy uncertainty. Growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs)—key players in global commodity production and consumption—is expected to average 3.8 percent in 2025 and 2026, marking a downward revision of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, since January 2025. Click here to read full article.

Econometric modelling of the impact on South Africa of US tariffs – including the proposed 30% reciprocal tariff on all non-exempted goods, the 25% tariff on automotives and automotive components, and the 50% tariff on steel, aluminium and copper – indicates that yearly South African exports to America could decline by between $1.4-billion and $2.3-billion. In 2024, South Africa exported goods to the US valued at $14.9-billion. EY tax partner Duane Newman reports that its modelling suggests a potential fall in exports of between $1.4-billion and $1.6-billion yearly in 2024 prices. While Professor Lawrence Edwards, of the University of Cape Town’s School of Economics, says its analysis points to a potential loss of $2.3-billion once the higher tariffs imposed on South Africa relative to competitor exporters are also taken into account. Worryingly, the tariff figure imposed on South Africa could rise to 40% should President Donald Trump follow through on his threat to impose an additional 10% on countries that support the “anti-American policies of BRICS”, of which South Africa is a member. Click here to read full article.

The week saw positive momentum for South Africa as President Trump delayed the imposition of 30% tariffs on South African imports until 1 August, offering a window for further negotiation. Locally, manufacturing output showed a modest recovery in May following six months of contraction, while container and bulk exports recorded year-on-year growth in June. The agricultural sector showed strength as tractor sales surged by 30.6% y/y, suggesting ongoing investment confidence. Eskom’s energy availability factor rose to 62.1%, with fewer unplanned outages, and the Operation Vulindlela Phase II report indicated that 56% of structural reforms are on track. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves rose by $252 million in June, supporting broader economic stability. Globally, economic and environmental shifts are accelerating. Angola’s inflation rate eased, while major Chinese energy deals were secured in Zambia and Malawi. China led global growth in renewable energy infrastructure, building more solar and wind power than coal or gas. Click here to read full report.

The recent Chinese offer of duty-free market access for all goods for African countries has triggered great interest amongst agribusiness exporters. SA exports currently comprise only around 0.4% of the massive $215 billion Chinese agricultural import total. China is currently a small component of SA Agri exports (2024 data), but with great potential. SA exports include fruits, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans, and wool. China is on record as saying recently that it would want to see an increase in Agri imports from SA. The desire by China to further diversify its import basket is possibly a factor in this as well. At the same time, SA has been a promoter within BRICS+ policy discussions of the need for increased intra-BRICS+ agricultural trade. The visit this week by SA’s Deputy President is therefore an opportunity to take these relations forward. Deputy President Mashatile will undertake a strategic working visit to the People’s Republic of China from 14 to 18 July 2025 to participate in the China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) and officially launch the South African National Pavilion. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Fruit Desk Manager Wolfe Braude. 

South Africa’s proposed Transformation Fund could reshape black economic empowerment. However, according to Agbiz agricultural economist and policy analyst Thapelo Machaba, without clarity, accountability, and alignment with existing programmes, it risks repeating old mistakes. The department of trade, industry and competition (DTIC) has proposed the creation of a Transformation Fund, envisioned as a R100 billion initiative to drive inclusive economic growth and address persistent inequality. The fund aims to pool public and private resources, including contributions of up to 3% of net profit after tax (NPAT) from companies to support black-owned businesses, township- and rural enterprises, and youth employment. The Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) and Business Unity South Africa (Busa), among other voices in the private sector, have welcomed the fund’s intention but raised serious concerns about its structure, feasibility, and overlap with existing efforts. Click here to read full article by Thapelo Machaba for foodformzansi.co.za.

In the wake of the trade friction presented by the U.S.'s Liberation Day tariffs, which are at 31% and pose profound challenges for exporting businesses, the South African government signalled that work would soon begin on building an export diversification strategy for the country. This would be a way to spread the risk, given that trade fragmentation remains a persistent global theme. However, since May, much of the effort by the South African authorities has been focused on U.S. issues, with limited work on the export diversification approach. This should not have been the case; the ideal approach is a simultaneous process, where export diversification continues while other teams manage U.S. trade relations. One would argue that export diversification is where the South African government should be directing most of its energies. Watch the latest episode with agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo here.

I know our minds remain focused on the current 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds season, whose harvest is underway across the country, and is occurring much later than usual by more than a month due to the excessive and prolonged rainy season. However, I noticed this morning an interesting piece by World Bank economists reflecting on the outlook for global agriculture, and one of the points they raise is their concern about input costs going into 2026. Amongst other things, the World Bank’s analysts argue that: “Fertiliser prices continued to rise in the second quarter of 2025, with the World Bank’s fertiliser price index up 15 per cent since the start of the year. Triple superphosphate (TSP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) saw particularly sharp gains, rising 43 and 23 per cent, respectively. The increase has been driven by strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls, especially in the case of urea. For the full year, prices are projected to register a modest increase over 2024, supported by firm demand, before stabilising in 2026.” Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa cannot afford to lose the United States as a trade partner – especially in agriculture – even as it pursues export diversification. Reacting to President Donald Trump’s announcement that all South African goods imported to the USA will be subject to a 30% levy, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), told BizNews that various sectors will have to go back to the drawing board. Sihlobo said South Africa must pay close attention to what the US is asking for and work on improving its offer. “We cannot just substitute the US – it remains super important to us in agriculture.” He further noted that this sentiment is echoed by players in the mining, automotive, and other industries. Some have questioned why South Africa doesn’t simply pivot to alternative markets like China. But Sihlobo dismissed this as unrealistic. “You can’t switch markets overnight. There are supply chain dynamics, relationship infrastructure and logistics that have been built over the years. In China, South African exporters still face steep tariffs – up to 20% on wine, 12% on macadamias – and we don’t have a trade agreement in place.” Click here to read full article.

Instead, we wanted to ensure Brazil controls the avian influenza outbreak before we could resume the imports. This decision was not unique to South Africa, but a standard global practice, and at the time, the EU and China had already placed temporary bans on Brazil’s poultry imports. We also had haunting memories of the 2023 avian influenza in South Africa, which led to significant financial losses for poultry producers and higher prices for eggs and other poultry products for consumers. At the same time, we were seeing the perverse spread of the various strains of bird flu in the US and parts of the UK, which had crossed from poultry to dairy, and then to humans. Having witnessed such cases, it only seemed fair to ensure that South Africa takes a careful approach to the imports. After it was established that the ban was only in a few areas, South Africa started applying a regionalised poultry import restriction and opened some regions for imports. Click here to read full article and click here to listen to podcast.

Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others. Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August 1 will likely cause Americans headaches. Brazil's coffee is inescapable due to its significance in global coffee production. Coffee prices have been relatively high since the start of the year due to unfavourable weather conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, which have weighed on global supplies. The U.S. tariffs will pose a challenge for American consumers. We are watching the impact of all this on the global coffee prices, which have surged recently on the back of the U.S. tariffs and the preexisting challenges of unfavourable production conditions in South America. As South Africa, we import coffee, and Brazil can surely have room to increase supplies to South Africa. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

In the wake of the trade friction presented by US President Donald Trump’s latest adjustment to his “Liberation Day” import tariffs, which are now at about 30% and pose profound challenges for SA exporting businesses, the government has signalled that work will soon begin on an export diversification strategy for the country. This would be a way to spread the risk, given that trade fragmentation remains a persistent global theme. However, since May, much of the effort by the SA authorities has been focused on US issues, with limited work on the export diversification approach. This should not have been the case; the ideal approach is a simultaneous process, where export diversification continues while other teams manage US trade relations. One could argue that export diversification is where the government should be directing most of its energies. There are always risks associated with being overconcentrated in a few markets, as disruption in those markets could have effects on growth and employment. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

One of the stories I picked up in the FT this morning is comments by John-Arne Røttingen of the Wellcome charitable foundation, expressing worries about the change in aid to African countries. Røttingen’s remarks mainly focused on the health impact, especially for countries that lack the fiscal space to close the gaps left by the reduction in USAID funds and the reduction in other Western countries’ assistance. The one aspect that I am also particularly worried about is food insecurity in some African countries. The funding cuts to USAID also impact the World Food Programme (roughly half of the WFP budget is from USAID). Yes, we may not see the immediate impact of all this currently in food insecurity levels, as the sub-Saharan Africa region has a reasonably good agricultural season. However, when supplies are depleted later in the year or we encounter droughts, we will see the shock to households. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

The Department of Agriculture has green-lighted Astral Foods Limited's request to vaccinate its broiler breeding stock against avian flu. The poultry industry has lauded the move as it's expected to avert an outbreak that could trigger shortages and price hikes. The regulatory agility promises quicker, more efficient vaccine registration, empowering businesses to bolster food security. Click here to watch full interview.

South Africa’s agricultural sector stands at a critical crossroads, balancing strong export performance with mounting challenges like infrastructure constraints, trade barriers, and the need for market diversification. Joining CNBC Africa is to unpack the opportunities and risks ahead is Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. Click here to watch.

In a world of growing trade fragmentation, one area the Brics countries should place greater focus on in their deliberations this year is deepening intra-Brics trade. For South Africa’s agriculture, this has been central to discussions for some time, reflecting our desire to expand export markets to the Brics countries, as well as the potential that lies in the bloc. South African agricultural exports to the Brics remain relatively low (less than 10% of our total agricultural exports to the world, which stood at $13.7bn in 2024). The Brics group is not a trade bloc, which partly explains this limited penetration. However, this may be an opportune time to change that and explore a more ambitious agricultural trade arrangement — one that aims to address the low intra-trade challenge in agriculture within this grouping. Click here to read full article and listen to podcast.

The debate on land reform in South Africa does seem like a case of the same proposals coming around again and again. Although South Africa has a clear constitutional and legal framework for land reform, a lack of effective implementation of available measures and instruments coupled with low levels of budgetary allocations for land reform, corruption, lack of political will and lack of capacity, as cited in the 2017 High-level panel report on key legislation[1], has frustrated progress with the various land reform programmes. The Minister of Land Reform and Rural Development, Minister Nyhontso recently engaged with the portfolio committee on rural development and land reform in Parliament. He said, amongst other things, that the land redistribution programme is moving at a slow pace and that the slow pace of land reform in South Africa has become a source of mounting frustration for millions. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby for Agbiz Grain Quarterly. Page 28-31.

World Population Day is observed annually on July 11th to enhance awareness of population trends, including the impact on a large array of development challenges. It is estimated that there are about 8.2 billion people on this planet in 2025. The world population was about 3 billion in 1960 and grew to 8.2 billion in 65 years. According to the projections by the United Nations, it is likely that the world population will continue to grow and reach 9.6 billion in 2050. Looking at fertility and mortality trends is essential to understanding global demographic change. In the absence of migration (when the whole world is considered, net migration is zero), population growth refers to the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. The births and deaths that took place over the past century determine the current population size and composition. Population growth happens when there are more births than deaths. Over the past decades, there have been profound changes in birth rates, death rates, and population size globally. Click here to read full article.

Fertilizer prices continued to rise in the second quarter of 2025, with the World Bank’s fertilizer price index up 15 percent since the start of the year. Triple superphosphate (TSP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) saw particularly sharp gains, rising 43 and 23 percent, respectively. The increase has been driven by strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls—especially in the case of urea. For the full year, prices are projected to register a modest increase over 2024, supported by firm demand, before stabilizing in 2026. However, prices are expected to remain well above their 2015–19 average, reflecting elevated input costs, resilient consumption, and ongoing export restrictions (China), sanctions (Belarus), and tariffs (Belarus and Russia). Risks to the outlook include input cost increases on the upside, and a potential easing if Chinese exports resume on the downside. Some input costs have eased in recent months. Natural gas prices—a key input for nitrogen fertilizer production—have moderated, with prices in the United States and Europe down by 26 and 16 percent, respectively, since the start of the year. Ammonia prices have also declined significantly. In contrast, liquid sulphur prices have surged, tripling since the end of 2024. Read article here.

In an exclusive interview conducted on the sidelines of the two-day Gauteng Agro-Processing Convention and Expo, held at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), highlighted critical challenges facing South Africa’s agricultural sector, chief among them the stalled implementation of land reform. Sihlobo pointed to the delayed release of land acquired by the government for redistribution as a major obstacle to agricultural development. “The government has acquired approximately 2,5 million hectares of land but hasn’t issued proper title deeds to beneficiaries,” he explained. “This is creating a significant bottleneck in our agricultural development.” He emphasised that without title deeds, farmers cannot use their land as collateral to secure loans for inputs, equipment or expansion. Short-term leases and poor beneficiary selection processes further compound the problem. Click here to read full article.

With zero customs duties, a shared external tariff, and strong retail infrastructure across member states, the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) can present a unique opportunity for farmers to access regional markets with reduced red tape and favourable trade terms. For South African farmers eager to expand their horizons, the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) offers a practical gateway into export markets. Made up of South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Eswatini, Sacu is not only the world’s oldest customs union, but also one of the country’s most important trade partners, especially for agriculture. With zero customs duties, a shared external tariff, and strong retail infrastructure across member states, the union can present a unique opportunity for farmers to access regional markets with reduced red tape and favourable trade terms. Click here to read full article.

This update provides a consolidated overview of the South African logistics network and the current state of international trade. At our container terminals, another record high average of 13 933 TEUs was handled daily, increasing from 12 531 TEUs the previous week. Despite the record throughput, some delays were still experienced because of adverse weather, vacant berths, as well as continuous equipment breakdowns and shortages. The Port of Cape Town experienced more than 30 operational hours of downtime due to adverse weather this week, while the main operational constraints in Durban were continuous equipment breakdowns, adverse weather, and congestion. Poor weather, vessel ranging, and vacant berths mainly impacted operations at our Eastern Cape Ports, as inclement weather conditions also ensured operational delays at the Port of Richards Bay. The latest reports from TFR suggest that intermittent cable theft incidents still occurred on the Central Corridor this week. However, trains are still moving on the line. Additionally, operations on the line between City Deep and Mafikeng were delayed for around 2-3 days due to a shortage of working diesel locomotives. Click here to read full report.

The 2025 stone fruit season across key global regions is marked by contrasting trends in production, pricing, and market dynamics. Weather impacts, shifting acreage, and strong demand continue to shape outcomes for producers and exporters alike. Italy reports stable overall production but reduced yields and rising prices, especially in northern regions. Orchard removals and weather-related challenges are driving strong demand and higher prices for available volumes. Spain is experiencing firm market conditions, with high temperatures boosting consumption and prices up to 60% higher for some categories. Despite hail-related losses, production in Catalonia remains above the five-year average. France expects a rise in apricot volumes but lower peach production. While peach prices are increasing, the market remains fluid due to summer temperatures supporting demand. The Netherlands faces a significant peach shortfall following hailstorms in Spain. Click here to read full article.

The energy price index rose 9.7% in June, driven by a 11.3% surge in crude oil, the World Bank's Pink Sheet reported. The non-energy price index eased by 1.1%. The agricultural price index fell 2.8% in June, with food prices down 1.4%, beverages dropping 8.2%, and raw materials remaining broadly unchanged. Fertilizer prices rose 7.3%. Metal prices increased by 1.7% in June, led by gains in aluminum and copper (both up 3.2%) and tin (+1.8%), while iron ore declined 4.8%. Precious metals rose by 2.6%, supported by sharp increases in platinum (+27.8%) and silver (+9.9%). The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements. Click here to read full article.

World cotton production and consumption for the 2025/26 season, are projected at 25.90 million tonnes, and 25.6 million tonnes respectively. There is a downward revision for US production and an upward revision for US exports, based on the lates report from USDA, which considers the recent heavy rains and planting delays in the delta region. The world cotton lint production projection for 2024/25 is estimated to be at 25,9 million tonnes and consumption at about 25,6 million tonnes. Trade is estimated to be around 9,3 million tonnes. US exports have been revised upwards based on recent monthly export figures, but India, Argentina, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Greece and Turkey, are projected to see decreases in exports. China’s imports have also been revised downward based on recent import trends. Economic and geopolitical tensions can have an influence on consumer consumption and demand, and it remains to be seen if the increasing tariffs that are suspended for 3 months, will influence trade deals. The effect of the conflict between Israel and Iran has on the market, can be reflected in the imports of Iran. Click here to read full article. 

In the video, stakeholders from the fruit export industry, the Western Cape Government, and Transnet Port Terminals reflect on the successful implementation of a public–private partnership that delivered two 500kVA generators and 120 additional reefer plug points at the Cape Town Container Terminal. Speakers featured in the video include: Theo Boshoff, CEO of Agbiz, Noxolo Thabatha, Terminal Manager at Cape Town Container Terminal, Glen Steyn, Project Manager, Logistics Development: Western Cape Government, Mecia Peterson, CEO: South African Table Grape Industry (SATI), Oscar Borchards, Managing Executive, Western Cape Terminals: Transnet, Ilse van Schalkwyk, Acting DDG: SEAD & Chief Director: Economic Sector Support, Antoinette van Heerden, Logistics Manager: Fresh Produce Exporters Forum and Jacques du Preez, General Manager: Trade and Markets, Hortgro. Watch the video here and read the full joint press release here.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

Potatoes SA Innovation Symposium

23 & 24 July 2025 | CSIR Convention Centre, Pretoria

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SATI & SASEV Table Talk: Grape Conversations Roadshow

28 July 2025 | Wildwood Estate, Groblersdal

30 July 2025 | Lake Grappa, Kakamas

01 August 2025 | Kronenburg, Paarl

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Agbiz/Agbiz Grain 11th Virtual SHEQ Workshop

29 July 2025 | Virtual

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International Fresh Produce Association’s Southern Africa Conference

23-24 July 2025 | Pretoria, South Africa

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TIPS FORUM 2025

30-31 July 2025 | IDC Auditorium, Sandton

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BFAP Baseline 2025

13 August 2025 | Pretoria

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2025 Agricultural Transformation Lekgotla

13 August 2025 | Batter Boys, Pretoria

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SAPPO PIGx2 2025

31 July - 1 August | Maslow Hotel, Menlyn, Pretoria

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South African Sugar Technologists’ Association Congress 2025 

12-14 August 2025 | ICC Durban

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