Agbiz and AgriSA represent South African producers at the Cairns Group Farm Leaders, a coalition of agricultural exporting countries that represent farmers growing and producing over one third of the world's agricultural exports. The group's aim is for an equitable and enforceable rules-based trading system in agriculture. Members include national farmer and agribusiness organisations from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, Uruguay, and Vietnam. The Cairns Group released a statement during COP27. Please click here to peruse.

The Climate Implementation Summit at the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP27) concluded at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt with the announcement of a total of $7.4 billion support for global efforts towards food security. At the end of the two-day high-level summit, which was attended by more than 100 Heads of State and global leaders, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation pledged to invest $1.4 billion over four years to support smallholder farmers, particularly women, with innovative digital technologies. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) also announced the launch of its $6 billion global food security platform, consisting of $3 billion from the IFC, $2 billion from private investors and $1 billion as blended finance. Please click here to peruse.

A study looking into current volatility in the fertilisers market and its impact on agricultural production was issued earlier this month by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Calling for urgent action to address the fertiliser crisis, the study outlines policy recommendations for G20 governments, highlighting the importance of keeping the fertiliser market open to meet global demand and to avoid a food availability crisis. Please click here to peruse.

As the old adage goes, there are only two things that are certain in life: death...and taxes. As social contract theory goes; individuals give up an element of freedom (and money) in exchange for security, services and harmony in society. In other words, we pay taxes so that we can get services such as infrastructure, safety and social security. An element of cross-subsidisation is inevitable but it contributes to the overall stability of society. This logic has been diluted of late. Government services have increasingly moved towards a ‘user-pays principle’ and taxes have increasingly been used as a punitive measure to change behaviour. The two examples that come to mind are the Carbon Tax and the Health Promotion Levy. The Carbon Tax Act attaches a price to greenhouse gas emissions. The logic underpinning the Act is that companies would do everything in their power to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions as emissions will have a direct impact on their balance sheet. The health promotion levy increases the cost of beverages with a high sugar content in an attempt to mould consumer preferences towards healthier options. Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff discusses this topic in the linked article, written for and first published in Farmer's Weekly.

We are a month away from the 55th National Conference of the governing African National Congress (ANC), where new leadership will be elected and resolutions will be adopted on critical policy matters. Agriculture policy, food security and land reform will likely be among the crucial topics for the conference. The outcomes of the party's policy conference held in July this year give us some insight into the ANC's broad approach to agriculture, food security, and land reform. The policy papers from the July conference have championed agriculture as an important sector of the South African economy, with the potential to uplift many South Africans out of poverty through increased food production, vibrant economic activity and job creation. This perspective gives one hope that the policy approach towards this sector will be constructive, demonstrating an understanding of the need for a stable environment and increased investment to sustain the country's gains thus far on the food security front. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this topic in the linked article.

This past week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly flagship report, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. This report provides insight into the production conditions of the major grains and oilseeds. While there have been some changes in production conditions in various countries, the overall estimates remain broadly unchanged from the forecasts released in October 2022. For example, the USDA forecasts 2022/23 global wheat production at 783 million tonnes, up by 0,1% from October 2022. This is mainly because of improved production conditions in Australia, Brazil and Kazakhstan, which overshadowed the decline in crop conditions in Argentina, amongst others. Notably, the current forecast is up by 0,4% from the 2021/22 global wheat harvest, supported by expected large yields in Russia, the US, Canada, Kazakhstan, China, Turkey, and the UK. Read more in the linked article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Rainfall currently being experienced across the country is expected to have a positive impact on South Africa's new agricultural season. More rainfall is forecast until February 2023. There are convincing signals pointing to another favourable agricultural season for SA in 2022/2023. Agricultural economist Wandile Shlobo explains in the linked interview with Newzroom Africa.

Since April 2020, the monthly tractor sales have remained positive, registering an average of 26% y/y growth over the past 31 months. When this year started, I thought the farmers would reduce spending on agricultural machinery as fertilizer, agrochemicals and fuel prices increased aggressively along with a rise in the interest rates, all of which added financial pressure on farmers. I also assumed that the two years of solid sales – 2020 and 2021 – would mean farmers would see a limited need to replace the tractors. But the data tells a different story; with tractor sales seeing an average of 20% y/y growth over the past ten months of 2022. The major surprise came with October 2022 tractor sales data released this past week. The sales were up 48% y/y from October 2021, amounting to 1 268 units, the highest in 40 years. Wandile Sihlobo explains more in this week's podcast. Please click here to listen to the podcast.

The November edition of Agbiz Grain Quarterly keeps every role player abreast of new developments in the grain-handling and storage industry in South Africa. As always, the latest edition includes several in-depth, industry-specific articles ranging from food production optimisation and the future of grain, to ways to curtail mechanical grain damage.

Also, in the November edition:

• Overview of the 2021/22 season’s wheat crop quality survey.
• Mycotoxins: The PPB challenge in grains.
• Why protocols are necessary to settle disputes.
• An introduction to health and safety legislation.
• Private sector participation: Will it save Transnet or not?

To download the current PDF version of Agbiz Grain Quarterly, click here. To download the digimag, click here.

Legislation regarding health and safety in the workplace is of great importance to employers, especially those in the agricultural industry. Lucinda Janse van Rensburg from Implex was one of the speakers at the first virtual Safety, Health, Environment and Quality (SHEQ) workshop, jointly organised by Agbiz and Agbiz Grain to inform members about this important aspect. The workshop targeted persons in charge of occupational health and safety matters. This might include health and safety officers or health and safety managers, as well as senior-level managers. Please click here to listen to an RSG Landbou interview with Lucinda Janse van Rensburg about this topic.

Economic outlooks don’t come easy in the current environment but the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) regional economic outlook report for sub-Saharan Africa proved to be particularly challenging. Its title Living on the Edge tells part of the story but in this podcast, economist Wenjie Chen walks us through the research behind the new report. Chen is a deputy head in the Regional Studies Division and part of the team of macroeconomists who dissect regional trends to come up with key priorities for policymakers. Please click here to listen to the podcast.

In a context of economic uncertainty exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the food security crisis, G20 economies between mid-May and mid-October 2022 introduced export restrictions at an increased pace, particularly on food and fertilizer, according to the 28th WTO Trade Monitoring Report on G20 trade measures issued on 14 November. WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala called on G20 countries, and all WTO members, to refrain from adopting new trade-restrictive measures that can further contribute to a worsening of the global economic outlook. Please click here to peruse.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) says the supply chain of petroleum products to South Africa is “resilient as ever”. This follows comments made by the Liquid Fuel wholesale Association that the country is facing possible liquid fuel supply shortages. “The DMRE would like to assure South Africans that there is no imminent shortage of liquid fuels in the country, and predictions made by the Liquid Fuel Wholesalers Association (LFWA) are very unfortunate. “The supply chain of the petroleum sector in South Africa is resilient even as the disruptive geopolitical war in Eastern Europe rages on. The department engages the industry on a weekly basis on supply issues and will seek clarity from the LFWA on its comments,” the department said. The DMRE explained that government has invested in fuel import for years which contributes to fuel supply security. Over a number of years, the government deliberately enabled investment in fuel import terminals when the reliability of existing petroleum refineries was in question. These import terminals provided the backup to existing refineries and this has proven to have been a correct strategy as refineries close. The import terminals throughout the country’s ports are able to ensure the security of fuel supply. “In addition, major investments have been made by both Mozambique and Namibia which further strengthen the region’s fuel supply position,” the department said. 

Port operations this past week were typified by equipment breakdowns and shortages, adverse weather conditions, backlogs, and congestion. Concerns regarding the cranes at south key at berth 108 in Durban were revisited this week as multiple cranes remain on extended outages, halting operational performance at the berth. In addition, Durban experienced another challenging week on all fronts as a dry bulk vessel at the Island View terminal was delayed for 12 hours due to adverse weather conditions. Elsewhere, NCT also experienced a challenging week as the terminal was windbound on multiple occasions throughout the week, with the most substantial delay occurring on Wednesday for approximately ten hours. In the global shipping industry, container volumes have plummeted from last month, as the global merchandise landscape is shaping towards a massive economic lull, further providing setbacks for the shipping industry. Please click here to access the latest BUSA Covid-19 Cargo Movement Update.

According to figures from trade body Hortgro, exporters are forecasting a 4 per cent increase for both plums and peaches at 86 000 tonnes and 6 550 tonnes respectively, with a 15 per cent rise in nectarines to 23 650 tonnes. Better weather conditions and a focus on quality and fruit size have left growers expecting a good to above-average stonefruit crop, Hortgro said. There has been particular attention on expanding the nectarine and plum sectors, with several new orchards planted over the past five years to support volume growth. The return to stability and a larger estimated export crop had set South Africa up for a positive UK promotional campaign for 2022/23, Hortgro outlined. This year’s push will be primarily focused on retailer collaboration, and in particular driving sales during the peak weeks for plum supply. Read more in the linked article, first published on fruitnet.com.

This week, the National Council of Provinces is taking Parliament to the People in KwaZulu-Natal. The provincial economy will be the focus of discussion on Wednesday, 16 November with Minister Ebrahim Patel in attendance, and President Ramaphosa will deliver a keynote address on Friday, 18 November. SA Canegrowers and other industry stakeholders will be in attendance and will use the opportunity to call on national government to eliminate the Health Promotion Levy that continues to put one million livelihoods supported by the sugar industry at risk.

With the province facing critical service delivery failures, compounded by the unrest in July 2021 and the floods in April 2022, it is critical that the President and Minister Patel intervene on the issue of the Health Promotion Levy to help preserve jobs in the embattled province. Read more in the linked media statement by Andrew Russell, chairperson of SA Canegrowers.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.