The informal economy is a lifeline for millions worldwide. It’s a vibrant mix of jobs, small businesses, and economic activities that thrive beyond formal regulations, fuelled by a dynamic and entrepreneurial spirit. Yet, this vital force is often overlooked in the global discourse on economic growth. This must change. To unlock the full potential of emerging markets, we must integrate the informal economy and make it a key part of the global agenda to drive sustainable, long-term growth. In many emerging markets, formal economies struggle to scale fast enough to meet their populations’ needs. According to the World Bank, Africa’s working-age population is expected to grow by 450 million between 2017 and 2035. However, based on the current economic trajectory and without significant policy reform, there will be only 100 million new jobs. Similarly, India – home to over 600 million people aged between 18 and 35, with 65% under 35 – continues to experience a demographic boom. Click here to read full article derived from weforum.org.

South Africa is committed to enhancing the export of value-added goods and services to Saudi Arabia. “We must strive for a mutually beneficial trade relationship,” said Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Parks Tau at the opening of the South Africa – Saudi Arabia Business Forum at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg on Monday. Tau announced that South Africa and Saudi Arabia have agreed to consolidate several initiatives into a comprehensive action plan. "Over the next few weeks, we will consolidate several initiatives into an action plan for implementation over the next two years and institutionalise the relationship in that way. “We will take direct responsibility for overseeing the implementation of this plan, ensuring that we deliver on these commitments," he said. He highlighted that the cornerstone of economic relations between South Africa and Saudi Arabia has been guided by the structured framework of the Joint Economic Commission. Read full article here. Watch Minister Tau Delivers ​Welcome Remarks at the opening of Saudi – SA Business Forum here.

In 2025, South Africa will become the first African country to assume the presidency of the G20, taking over from Brazil. In the midst of a global polycrisis, South Africa’s G20 presidency offers an opportunity to reshape global governance on three critical issues: global financial reform, climate action and a just energy transition, and sustainable food systems. Thirty years ago, G7 countries constituted nearly 70% of the global economy. In contrast, by 2024, the Brics+ bloc accounted for about 35% of the world’s GDP, compared with the 30% held by G7 countries. Meanwhile, G20 countries currently represent 85% of the global economy, 75% of global trade and 63% of the world’s population. This shift underscores the growing influence and significance of emerging economies. South Africa’s membership in the G20 and Brics+ stresses the country’s role as an economic and political powerhouse both on the African continent and increasingly in the Global South. Click here to read full article.

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) is profoundly saddened by the passing of Tito Mboweni, former Governor of the South African Reserve Bank and esteemed Minister of Finance. Tito's contributions to South Africa's economic landscape were transformative and will be remembered for years to come. During his tenure, Tito Mboweni played a crucial role in shaping South Africa's economic policies, promoting fiscal discipline, and ensuring monetary stability. He was a key architect of significant reforms that enhanced the resilience of our economy, particularly during challenging times, including the global financial crisis. His leadership fostered a climate of confidence among investors and businesses, encouraging both local and foreign investment. Cas Coovadia, CEO of BUSA,"I first met Tito in the days after the ANC was unbanned and he returned from exile. He played a critical role in the development of ANC economic policy, always being the pragmatic voice, informed by his studies at East Anglia University in England.” Click here to read full statement by BUSA.

Agriculture minister John Steenhuisen has called on industry leaders and government to act swiftly in forging public-private partnerships to accelerate sustainable agricultural growth, warning that the window to leverage South Africa’s newfound political momentum will not remain open for long. Speaking at a high-profile Ministerial Stakeholder Dialogue hosted by the Agricultural Development Agency (Agda) in partnership with Absa, Steenhuisen said agriculture must play a pivotal role in the country’s national unity mission. The event centred around the theme: “Cultivating public-private partnerships for accelerated and sustainable agricultural growth.” The event, held on Monday at the Maslow Hotel in Pretoria, aimed to foster collaboration between the public and private sectors to drive long-term, inclusive growth across the agricultural industry. In his keynote speech, Steenhuisen pointed to a growing sense of optimism in South Africa following the formation of the government of national unity. Click here to read full article derived from foodformzansi.co.za.

The Freight Logistics Roadmap, developed by Operation Vulindlela, recommended a series of regulatory and institutional reforms on rail but made limited, ad hoc recommendations in relation to ports. More specifically, the roadmap recommended that the public-private partnerships advertised by Transnet for the Port of Ngqura in the Eastern Cape and Durban Pier 2 in KwaZulu Natal be expedited. Durban Pier 2 handles approximately two-thirds of South Africa’s total container cargo, and when a call for qualifications was put out, thirty-two of the world’s leading port handling companies expressed their interest. Once Transnet selected a preferred partner, it would sell a 49% stake in a special purpose vehicle to jointly operate and invest in Pier 2. Transnet is, naturally, the legacy owner, but the expectation was that the private sector partner invest in equipment to recapitalise the terminal and bring in expertise to jointly operate the terminal for the next 25 years. This is, then, not a decision to be taken lightly. Click here to read full report by Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff. 

There is consensus amongst South African agribusinesses, farmers, and the government that the path to growing South Africa's agricultural sector must include a strong focus on exports. Creating an environment where the agricultural sector continues to attract investment and grows sustainably in the long run will be difficult to achieve without opening up the export markets. Thus, the government and private sector's efforts in boosting agricultural production in various regions of South Africa must be matched with the same drive to expand export markets. South Africa is not an insignificant player in global agriculture. The country ranked 32nd among the world's top agricultural exporters in 2023 and the only African country in the top 40, according to data from Trade Map (exports amounted to US$13,2 billion in 2023). This was made possible by a range of trading agreements South Africa secured over the past decades, the most important being with some African, European, American, and Asian countries. The African continent and Europe now account for about two-thirds of South Africa's agricultural exports. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo. 

I recently said on X that South Africa is food secure at a national level but has a major household food insecurity problem. One of the measures researchers often use to evaluate the food security condition of each country relative to the world is The Economist’s Global Food Security Index. In 2022, South Africa ranked 59th out of 113 countries and was the most food secure in sub-Saharan Africa. This is an improvement from the previous year’s ranking of 70th. South Africa ranked the second most food-secure country in the African continent after Morocco. The Global Food Security Index comprises four sub-indices: 1) food affordability, 2) food availability, 3) food quality and safety, and 4) sustainability and adaptation. The affordability and availability subindices carry a combined weighting of two-thirds of the total index. The affordability sub-index includes the change in average food costs, agricultural trade, food safety net programmes, proportion of population under the global poverty line, and funding for food safety net programmes. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for mg.co.za. Read longer report here. 

Ordinarily, we use agricultural machinery sales to gauge farmers' intentions for the season ahead. When the sales are robust, we are typically positive that farmers are eager for the new season. Equally, we worry about the poor machinery sales. But we are in no ordinary period. The recent months' sales cannot be a guide for the season ahead for various reasons. First, the agricultural sector has had a few seasons of higher machinery sales, supported by improved farmers' incomes due to ample harvest and higher commodity prices. Thus, there was bound to be some correction period, leading to moderation in sales. Since the start of 2024, we have been in this "market correction" period for both tractors and combine harvesters' sales. After a few years of higher sales, the replacement rate of the old machines is justifiably down. Second, the fact that we also struggled with an intense mid-summer drought did not help. Farmers are under financial pressure because of the crop losses. For example, the 2023-24 mid-summer drought has led to a projected 23% decline in South Africa's summer grains and oilseed production to 15,45 million tonnes. Click here to read full article. 

Like many other sectors of the South African economy, agriculture has shown signs of improved optimism since the government of national unity (GNU) got off the ground, which has fuelled confidence about the path forward. The Agbiz/IDC agribusiness confidence index, a sentiment indicator of business conditions in the sector, has risen from its low of the second quarter, increasing by 10 points to 48 in the third quarter. While the index remains below the neutral 50-point mark, the 10-point jump is encouraging, signalling that things are moving in the right direction. A sustained lift in sentiment matters, especially over the long run, for fixed investment in the agriculture and agribusiness sectors. The index also serves as a leading indicator of agricultural growth prospects over time. We can thus expect slightly better farming output data for the third quarter of 2024. Several factors underpin the improvement in sentiment. One of them is the better electricity supply. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo. Click here to listen to podcast of the same topic.

While South Africa’s maize production is down 22% from the last season because of the tough mid-summer drought to an expected harvest of 12,8 million tonnes, we continue to export maize to the Southern African region. The expected harvest, combined with large carryover stock from the last season, has made South Africa comfortable about maize supplies. For example, in the week of October 4, South Africa exported 42k tonnes of maize. Of this volume, 52% was exported to Zimbabwe, 17% to Botswana, 17% to Namibia, and the balance to the neighbouring African countries. This placed South Africa’s total maize exports in the 2024-25 marketing year at 971k tonnes out of the expected 1,90 million tonnes (down from 3,44 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year because of the mid-summer drought). Click here to read article. And click here to watch SA's maize production prospects lowered - Wandile Sihlobo weighs in.

Economic uncertainty, while harder to measure than indicators like growth or inflation, has significant impacts on financial stability. Key proxies, such as the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, show that uncertainty remains elevated due to factors like the pandemic, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and climate disasters. High uncertainty can delay investment and consumption, increase credit tightening, and amplify financial market volatility, particularly during shocks. A major concern is the disconnect between economic uncertainty and financial market stability. While markets may seem calm, heightened uncertainty can lead to sharp market volatility and asset price drops if adverse shocks occur. This volatility risks triggering broader economic consequences, especially in countries with high public and private debt. Policymakers must focus on credible fiscal and monetary policies, enhance transparency, and use macroprudential tools to limit risks from debt vulnerabilities and financial market instability. Click here to read full article.

Global public debt is set to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. While many countries will see stable or declining debt, risks are higher than anticipated due to spending pressures, optimism bias in projections, and unidentified debt. Factors like ageing populations, climate change, and geopolitical tensions will drive increased spending, making fiscal adjustments necessary to stabilise debt. IMF research warns that in a severe scenario, global debt could reach 115% of GDP within three years. The report suggests a stronger fiscal consolidation effort, requiring countries to implement more robust policies than current projections to reduce debt risks. Careful design of fiscal measures is essential to protect growth and vulnerable populations, particularly in advanced economies and nations with high debt distress. The report advocates for measured, long-term adjustments, paired with enhanced fiscal governance to reduce risk. Click here to read full article.

At today’s feeble pace, it could take more than a century to eliminate poverty as it is defined for nearly half the world – people who live on less than $6.85 per day, according to the World Bank’s new Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report. The report offers the first post-pandemic assessment of global progress toward eradicating poverty and boosting shared prosperity on a livable planet. The global goal of ending extreme poverty – defined as $2.15 per person per day – by 2030 is out of reach: it could take three decades or more to eliminate poverty at this threshold, which is relevant primarily for low-income countries. Almost 700 million people – 8.5 percent of the global population – live today on less than $2.15 per day, with 7.3 percent of the population projected to be living in extreme poverty in 2030. Extreme poverty remains concentrated in countries with historically low economic growth and fragility, many of which are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Click here to read full article from worldbank.org.

Hot and dry conditions during the autumn and winter of 2024 have led to a decrease in South African sugar cane production, resulting in a slight reduction in sugar output and exports. Domestic sugar consumption for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 has been revised downward due to increased prices and an adjustment in custom duties from R1,096.60/MT to R2,348.90/MT. The area under sugar cane cultivation has decreased to 346,000 hectares, primarily driven by high input costs and anticipated demand reductions tied to the upcoming sugar tax in 2025. Sugar production is now projected at 17.2 million metric tonnes (MMT) for MY 2024/25, down 4% from the previous year. Adverse weather has caused significant yield losses, especially in rainfed regions that account for two-thirds of production. While irrigated areas had sufficient water, they still faced challenges from erratic electricity supply and insufficient heat during critical growth periods. Despite these setbacks, improvements in cane quality are expected, and South Africa will fully utilise its U.S. tariff rate quota for the year. Click here to read full report by USDA.

Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) can be a vital tool for countries with floating exchange rates during large economic shocks. While monetary and fiscal policies usually suffice to handle external disruptions, FXI can help stabilise financial markets under specific circumstances, such as sharp capital outflows, illiquid foreign exchange markets, and crisis-level currency depreciation. However, FXI comes with trade-offs, including potential costs, market distortions, and diminished exchange rate flexibility. The IMF's Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) provides guidelines on when and how FXI should be used, emphasising its role as part of a broader policy approach rather than a substitute for other economic measures. The framework aims to assist countries in preparing for future shocks while maintaining economic and financial stability. Click here to read full article derived from imf.org.

On 15 October 2024, Infrastructure South Africa (ISA) and the Department of Public Works and Infrastructure held a press conference where Minister Dean Macpherson and Acting Head of Infrastructure SA, Mameetse Masemola, unveiled the first bid window process for public infrastructure projects. This marks the launch of a new approach aimed at boosting innovation and public-private collaboration in infrastructure development. ISA had previously published a list of approximately 50 strategic infrastructure projects across key sectors, including ICT, water, transport, and energy. The newly announced bid window builds on the methodology followed by the Independent Power Producer (IPP) office to attract private sector interest in public infrastructure. Seed funding has been provided by ISA to prepare a project pipeline that includes 12 strategic projects, targeting sectors like energy, water and sanitation, transport, human settlements, social infrastructure, municipal infrastructure, and industrial development zones (IDZs). Click here to read full article by Agbiz Digital Communications Manager Temba Msiza. 

Nicholaus Noah, a Tanzanian entrepreneur, has been exporting sisal fibre to Ghana for years. When the National Investment Bank of Ghana -- a state-owned financial institution that foreign traders are obliged to go through -- introduced new policies in early 2024, Mr Noah grew concerned about the potential weight of such non-tariff barriers on small cross-border traders like him. These barriers can be restrictive regulations and procedures, other than tariffs, and make it more difficult and expensive to trade internationally. In Mr Noah’s case, the changes would have extended his reception of customer down payments from three days to 21, along with additional costs to courier documents from Tanzania to Ghana. Mr Noah had heard about the online reporting, monitoring and eliminating mechanism which tackles non-tariff barriers within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). In just a few minutes, he filed a complaint online and set off the resolution process. Read more here.

For the first time in the history of the G20, the forum has been chaired by the Global South for such a long time. Since 2022, with Indonesia, the following presidencies have been held by India (2023), Brasil (2024) and next year, 2025, the baton will be held by South Africa. But what does this mean politically and how does it influence the debate dynamics of the world's largest economies, both on the Finance and Sherpa tracks and in the G20 Social engagement groups? In this context, the G20 Brasil talked to the youth representatives of South Africa and the African Union, who attended the Youth 20 Summit last month. A perspective on the Global South agenda and the future of the G20 under the South African presidency by those who are the future of the continent. “This is a historic moment for developing countries, for the connections of the Global South, because these countries will be able to ensure that the voices and issues concerning them are well communicated. Often, the Global South's countries do not have an adequate role on the international stage, and now they are involved in this process, creating a new voice and a new sense of development.” Read full article here.

The plan to hand over management of the Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 to Philippines-based International Container Terminal Services Incorporated (ICTSI) has hit its first snag. The Durban High Court last week issued an interim interdict that prevents port owner Transnet from negotiating, concluding and implementing the contract with ICTSI, following a legal challenge by losing bidder APM Terminals, owned by Danish shipping company AP Moller-Maersk. Given the potential for contracts of this nature to be contested, Transnet should have anticipated such a challenge. APM says the award of the tender to ICTSI was riddled with irregularities, not least because the winner was assisted over the finish line by a concession that allowed it to fudge its proof of solvency – Transnet allowed ICTSI to use market capitalisation rather than balance sheet equity to prove solvency, painting a flattering portrait of its financial muscle. No other bidder was granted this concession and one has to wonder why. Click here to read full article.

Absa, in collaboration with the Agricultural Development Agency (AGDA), hosted a prestigious Ministerial Stakeholder Dialogue on Monday, 14 October 2024, at the Maslow Hotel in Pretoria. The event convened key stakeholders from across the agricultural value chain, including senior government officials, policymakers, agribusiness executives, financial services leaders, and commercial farmers. With the theme “Cultivating public-private partnerships for accelerated and sustainable agricultural growth,” the high-level dialogue aimed to foster strategic partnerships between the public and private sectors. The event served as a platform for discussion, collaboration, and actionable ideas to drive sustainable growth in South Africa’s agriculture sector. South Africa’s Agriculture Minister, John Steenhuisen, delivered a keynote address reflecting the sense of renewal brought by the newly formed government of national unity. Click here to read full statement. 

AgriSA is celebrating 120 years of leadership in the South African agricultural sector, highlighting the hard work and determination of Mzansi’s farmers who stay competitive globally while managing challenges at home. Leaders in agriculture have gathered at AgriSA’s Green Horizons Congress at the V&A Waterfront in Cape Town on Wednesday, 09 and Thursday, 10 October 2024. The event aims to explore sustainable farming practices, innovative strategies, and collaborative approaches to address future challenges facing the industry. According to AgriSA CEO Johann Kotzé, this year’s congress represents a significant opportunity to reflect on the investability of the food economy and agriculture’s role in sustaining food security. Since the dawn of South African democracy and the deregulation of the agriculture sector, the sector has seen immense growth, Kotzé added. Click here to read full article derived from foodformzansi.co.za.

This update provides an overview of the South African logistics network and the current state of international trade. On average, 8,396 containers were handled daily, an increase from 7,384 the previous week. However, operations faced challenges from adverse weather, congestion, and equipment breakdowns, particularly at ports in Cape Town and Durban. Globally, logistics experienced disruptions due to labour strikes, notably on the U.S. East Coast, affecting shipping capacity. Despite these challenges, global container ship orders have reached record highs, while spot rates for major shipping trades have decreased. In air cargo, ORTIA reported a decline in weekly volumes, but September figures showed significant year-over-year growth. The regional cross-border road freight trade saw improved queue times, though delays at border crossings persist. Overall, while improvements in South Africa's logistics network are underway, ongoing challenges provide opportunities for reforms aimed at enhancing productivity and attracting global partners. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

Westfalia Fruit’s first export of avocados from South Africa to China arrived in Shanghai last week. The first container exported by the multinational supplier arrived on October 8, when Shanghai customs conducted an inspection, the company announced in a statement. The container will be featured at the upcoming China International Import Expo (CIIE) in November, where it will be recognised as the first such import from South Africa. Westfalia Fruit said the milestone marked a “significant expansion” of the company’s global footprint and underscored its commitment to quality and sustainability in the avocado industry. “This achievement not only strengthens Westfalia Fruit’s presence in one of the world’s largest economies but also underscores their broader strategy of entering high-potential markets across the globe, such as the successful entrance into India a few years ago,” the company said. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

The delivery of cold chain boxes into terminal stacks, shipping delays, bottlenecks and inconsistent supply, have made South Africa’s current fruit export season “incredibly challenging”, Citrus Growers’ Association CEO Justin Chadwick has said. In his latest weekly brief, he emphasises that “these challenges were prevalent at all South African ports”. Not all is doom and gloom, though. According to Chadwick, “Specialised reefer shipping to Japan, China, the USA, and Russia remained generally consistent.” Compounding matters on the growers’ side was a difficult season marked by challenging climate conditions. Earlier this year, an official at MSC in Durban said: “We’re simply not seeing the volumes we were expecting.” The source added that a major reason for the disappointing citrus exports was seasonal constraints, causing fruit to ripen later. Click here to read full article.

After a challenging 2024 season characterised by extreme weather conditions such as floods, frost, and strong winds, South African wine producers are optimistic about the 2025 harvest. Most wine regions have experienced above-average winter rainfall, with improved chill unit accumulation and minimal frost damage, leaving producers hopeful about the new season. This is according to harvest predictions compiled by the industry bodies Vinpro and SAWIS. The winter of 2024 brought record rainfall in many regions filling dam levels. The vines have also built reasonable carbohydrate reserves thanks to lower disease pressure and favourable growing conditions after the harvest. Growers generally pruned later to reduce frost damage risk, which, in combination with current spring conditions, ensured a more even bud break. During the bunch initiation period of the previous growing season, atypical cool and wet conditions prevailed in the interior regions and warm and windy conditions in the coastal areas. Click here to read full statement by South Africa Wine.

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

Sustainability Summit to Address Key Global Challenges in Water, Energy, Transport, Agriculture, and Smart City Infrastructure

15 October 2024 | Emperors Palace

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RPO Conference

17 October 2024 | Nampo, Bothaville

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Emergency AgriClimate Summit 24

18 October 2024 | Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria

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GOSA Workshop: Geared for innovation

24 October 2024 | NAMPO Park

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SAIAE & PASAE International Symposium 2024

23 – 25 October 2024 | Grabouw, Western Cape

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AFMA Symposium 2024

31 October 2024 | CSIR International Convention Centre

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C&I Solar + Storage Summit

19-20 November 2024 | The Maslow Hotel, Johannesburg

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Shape Africa’s Agricultural Future at the Annual African Agri Investment Indaba 2024

18 – 20 November 2024 | Cape Town International Convention Centre

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ESG & Value Addition in Agriculture Conference 2024

4-5 December 2024 | Garden Court OR Tambo Johannesburg

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