China’s widening trade surplus and the growing US trade deficit since the pandemic have renewed concerns about global imbalances and fuelled an intense debate on their causes and consequences. There are increasing worries that China’s external surpluses result from industrial policy measures designed to stimulate exports and support economic growth amid weak domestic demand. Some worry that the resulting overcapacity could lead to a “China shock 2.0”—a surge of exports that would displace workers and hurt industrial activity elsewhere. This trade and industrial policy view of external balances is incomplete at best and should be replaced with a macro view. External balances are ultimately determined by macroeconomic fundamentals, while the link to trade and industrial policy is more tenuous. To understand the pattern of global external imbalances, we need to understand the macroeconomic drivers of desired saving relative to desired investment, not only in China, but also in the rest of the world including, importantly, the United States. Read full imf.org article here.

The food crisis in Sudan is worsening, with Famine (IPC Phase 5) persisting in the Zamzam IDP site in North Darfur. The situation affects 25.6 million people, a 26% increase since 2023, with conflict displacing over 2 million people into neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan. In Gaza, all 2.2 million residents remain in urgent need of assistance, with half the population experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between March and April 2024, and the risk of famine continuing. While some regions, including Afghanistan, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have seen improvements due to better harvests and stabilizing economies, 18 countries saw worsening conditions driven by conflict, drought, and rising food prices. This includes Nigeria, Sudan, and Yemen. Forced displacement and acute malnutrition continue to rise, particularly in conflict zones like Gaza and Sudan. Click here to read full 2024 Global Report on Food Crisis.

After a sharp decline in Q2 2024 to its lowest level since the 2009 global financial crisis, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) recovered by 10 points to 48 in Q3. The extreme pessimism in the previous survey was partly due to election-related uncertainty. The formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) appears to have eased that concern. The focus is back on fundamental agricultural matters. While the improvement in ACI to 48 points is encouraging, it is below the neutral 50-point mark, implying that South African agribusinesses remain somewhat concerned about business conditions. The recent drought in the 2023-24 summer crop, poorly maintained road infrastructure, weak municipal service delivery, persistent animal disease challenges and heightened geopolitical tensions remain the primary concerns for the sector. Moreover, while organised agriculture continues build a productive relationship with Transnet, there remains room for improved port efficiency. This survey was conducted in the first week of September, covering businesses operating in all agricultural subsectors across South Africa. Click here to read full report issued by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo.

On Tuesday, BUSA leadership met with the President, the Minister and Deputy Minister of Health, and senior officials from the Presidency and the Department of Health to discuss the NHI Act. BUSA is encouraged by Government's openness to engage on the substantive concerns raised by Business regarding the NHI Act. At the President's request, BUSA will prepare a proposal detailing solutions to address its concerns as a basis for further engagement with Government. BUSA’s primary objective is to render the NHI Act workable, affordable, and implementable, while advancing universal health coverage and ensuring an equitable healthcare system for all. Business, healthcare providers and a wide range of stakeholders have consistently supported the goal of universal health coverage but have raised concerns about the NHI Act's potential impact on healthcare, taxpayers, the economy, and investor confidence. Click here to read full statement by BUSA.

In a world facing food security challenges, South Africa's agricultural achievements offer a beacon of hope. Renowned economist Wandile Sihlobo explores how secure land tenure, infrastructure investment, and technology have advanced South Africa’s farming sector. His talk contrasts this progress with sub-Saharan Africa’s struggles, especially undocumented land ownership. Discover how South Africa’s approach offers a roadmap for regional agricultural development, advocating for policy reforms and increased private sector involvement. Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of Agbiz and author of two books on agriculture. He serves on South Africa's Presidential Economic Advisory Council and is a Senior Lecturer at Stellenbosch University. Sihlobo holds positions on various national committees, chairs the BRICS Agribusiness Working Group, and is a columnist for multiple publications. He has degrees in Agricultural Economics. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Click here to watch.

South Africa’s agricultural sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms since 1994. This success has been linked to international trade. Exports now account for roughly half (in value terms) of the annual agricultural production. Other drivers have been improvements in productivity through crop and animal genetics. Exports are largely to the rest of the African continent. In 2023 these accounted for 38% of South Africa’s agricultural exports. The EU is another important market for South Africa’s agricultural sector, accounting for a 19% share in 2023. In recent years, Asia and the Far East, in particular China, have been identified by the agriculture sector and policymakers as the key growth frontiers. Asia and the Middle East accounted for a quarter of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2023. But huge pockets of opportunity remain, in terms of products and countries. China is the biggest opportunity, largely because of its population and economic size. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for theconversation.com.

South Africa has an export-led agricultural sector, and thus we pay particular attention to the trade performance to determine whether there are glitches that must be resolved or necessary policy interventions. In the recent past, the sector has enjoyed solid growth in exports, reaching a record $13.2 billion in 2023. We achieved this despite problems at the ports, which suggest that when the ports are efficient, and farmers have an excellent season, we could see even better export figures. Still the level of success that South Africa has achieved has made the country the only one on the continent in the top 40 global agricultural exporters. But we leave aside the long-term export performance and look at the recent high frequency data, we see that after the sharp increase in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa’s agricultural exports fell slightly year-on-year in the second quarter. According to data from Trade Map, the country’s agricultural exports were $3.37 billion in the second quarter, a 0.1% decline relative to the same period last year. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Now that South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa has concluded a state visit to China, a country with much promise for deepening agricultural trade, the next stop should be the Middle East. Before transitioning to the Middle East, let's briefly examine China's agricultural trade. The agricultural trade data gives South Africa some signposts of what to do next: aggressively drive export to the Chinese market. This is a market of over US$200 billion of agricultural imports a year, and South Africa remains a small player of 0,4% in that market. From now on, the focus should remain on nudging China to lower the import tariffs for various agricultural products and addressing the phytosanitary barriers for some products. This effort will build on the success of the existing export market possibilities for South African beef, avocados, and wool, amongst other products. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

The drought that hit South Africa’s summer crops in February and March this year is starting to show on the economic indicators. After a robust expansion of 13.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa’s agricultural gross value added contracted by 2.1% in the second quarter. These figures are not surprising. South Africa’s agriculture has gone through the severe effect of the El Niño-induced drought, which weighed on crop yield. For example, the country’s 2024-25 summer crop harvest is down 22% from the previous season, estimated at 1.69 million tonnes. This figure of a crop decline encompasses maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. But drought was not the only problem. We continue to struggle with the lingering effects of animal diseases such as avian influenza in poultry, African swine fever in the piggery industry and foot-and-mouth disease in cattle. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Following a few years of robust sales, South Africa's agricultural machinery industry is normalizing. Thus, the sales have been relatively weak since the start of this year. The replacement rate of new machinary was bound to slow, even temporarily. The latest data is no different. For example, tractor sales were down 15% year-on-year in July, with 563 units sold. The combine harvester sales are down 75% year-on-year, with eight units sold.The persistent decline in sales since the start of the year is unsurprising and alighted with our expectations. We have long anticipated that there would be some correction after a long period of strong tractors and combine harvesters sales. The sales of the past few years were a function of both years of ample grain and oilseed harvest that coincided with high commodity prices and boosted farmers' incomes. For example, we have previously stated that South Africa's tractor sales for 2022 amounted to 9,181 units, up 17% year-on-year. Read full report by Wandile Sihlobo here.

The effects of the recent El Niño-induced mid-summer drought are starting to show in South Africa’s agricultural jobs data. For example, the figures recently released by Statistics South Africa show that employment in primary agriculture was down 5% quarter-on-quarter to 896k in the second quarter of 2024. From an annual basis perspective, the performance is also weak, although up 0,2% from the second quart of 2023. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 896k people remains well above the long-term jobs of 799k and generally reflects the harsh summer season we are leaving behind. Some subsectors showing a decline in employment include field crops, livestock, and forestry. The job performance in these subsectors is unsurprising as the mid-summer drought has notably impacted them, specifically field crops. Moreover, the livestock industry faces relatively higher feed costs and lingering animal disease, which all explain these subdued job data in the subsector. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo here.

After slowing to 3,9% in July 2024, South Africa's consumer food price inflation slightly edged up 4,1% in August. The products underpinning this mild increase were "bread and cereal", "meat", "vegetables", "fish", and "milk, eggs and cheese". While a slight uptick was expected, we remain sceptical that price increases will be significant in the coming months. The significant upside risk we have highlighted for some time is the grain-related products in the food basket because of the poor summer crop harvest due to the recent drought. For example, South Africa's 2023-24 maize harvest is estimated at 13,06 million tonnes, down 21% from last season. This sharp decline in harvest prospects signifies the harsh impact of the mid-summer drought, and the regions most affected were the white maize growing areas, a staple crop that is also scarce in the world market. Thus, white maize prices have rallied in recent months, while yellow maize prices have remained sideways. The primary issue is the potential strong demand for white maize from the Southern Africa region to the first quarter of 2025. Click here to read full data response by Wandile Sihlobo. 

By this time next month, the fields across the eastern regions of South Africa will likely be busy. Farmers will be tilling the land for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season in mid-October. It will be another month before the country's western regions start till the land, from mid-November. The variation in the optimal planting windows is mainly due to the differences in rainfall patterns. From now on through the season, the weather outlook will remain a primary focus for the agricultural stakeholders. We are, after all, emerging from a challenging 2023-24 summer grains and oilseed season that resulted in major crop losses. The latest figures from the Crop Estimates Committee show that the 2023-24 summer crop may have fallen as much as 22% from the previous season to 15,69 million tonnes. Click here to listen to full podcast – Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

Long-term trends over several decades indicate a strong correlation between global population growth and the increase in world production of staple foods. The economic growth resulting from the extraction of platinum-group minerals and the anticipated rise in consumer incomes offer the promise of increased local consumption of higher-value South African agricultural products. This also applies to the export of products to countries like China. A fair-trade agreement with China could provide South Africa with unlimited market access for agricultural products in exchange for exporting unprocessed platinum minerals. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Grain General Manager Wessel Lemmer for Landbouweekblad. 

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) mourns the passing of Pravin Gordhan, a stalwart in South African public life and governance. His legacy, built on a foundation of activism during the anti-apartheid struggle, was cemented through his leadership as SARS Commissioner, Minister of Finance, and various other cabinet positions where he served with integrity and a commitment to transparency. Gordhan was a key figure in battling state capture and corruption, advocating for ethical governance and economic stability. His dedication to public service and transformation was unwavering. His contributions, particularly as the Commissioner of the South African Revenue Service (SARS), transformed the nation's tax system and strengthened public trust in financial governance. He also positioned SARS as one of the most respected tax authorities in the world. Click here to read full statement by Business Unity South Africa.

The post-pandemic global economy is beset by slower growth, the most persistent inflation in decades, limited progress on sustainability, and high borrowing costs weighing on investment, including the massive investments needed for the energy transition. Perhaps the strongest headwind, though, is sluggish productivity growth since the global financial crisis. AI is our best chance at relaxing the supply-side constraints that have contributed to slowing growth, new inflationary pressures, rising costs of capital, fiscal distress and declining fiscal space, and challenges in meeting sustainability goals. And the reason is that AI has the potential not only to reverse the downward productivity trend, but over time to produce a major sustained surge in productivity. Of course it will take time. Roy Amara’s law applies here as in past episodes of technological transformation: we tend to overestimate the short-run impacts and underestimate the longer-term ones. Click here to read full article derived from imf.org.

The GIEWS Monthly Report on Food Price Trends for September 2024 highlights key changes in global food prices, focussing on cereals such as wheat, maize, and rice. Global wheat prices dropped in August 2024, driven by weak international demand and larger-than-expected production in key exporting countries like the U.S. and Argentina. Meanwhile, maize prices firmed slightly due to concerns about dry weather impacting crop yields, particularly in Ukraine and Argentina. Rice prices experienced modest increases, though mixed trends across regions kept the overall rise limited. In several FAO-monitored countries, domestic food prices remain high, especially in conflict-affected regions like South Sudan and Sudan, where coarse grain prices hit record highs. Southern Africa also saw food prices rise due to drought-reduced harvests and weak local currencies. The report covers detailed analyses of cereal prices across regions and issues warnings for countries facing acute food insecurity. Click here to read full report by the FAO.

Conservative politics has traditionally been defined by its emphasis on fiscal prudence and the idea of a small state. While parties leaning left are usually associated with more spending and a larger presence of the state in the economy. The reality may be different though. As our new analysis shows, parties across the political spectrum sound increasingly similar when it comes to fiscal policy: they all campaign on ideas of a bigger government and promising more spending. A comprehensive analysis of 65 advanced and emerging market countries over six decades shows that political discourse on fiscal issues has become increasingly favourable to higher government spending since the 1960s. From socialists to nationalists, support for more spending has steadily increased, while fiscal restraint rhetoric has lost favour across the board in the last three decades, after being most popular in the1980s. Click here to read full report derived from imf.org.

Facing a wave of criticism from within the party and mounting concerns about the negative public attention directed at his office, DA leader and Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen has asked his chief of staff, Roman Cabanac, to resign. Mounting internal pressure and the negative public attention directed at his office forced the minister of agriculture, DA leader John Steenhuisen, to ask his newly appointed chief of staff, Roman Cabanac, to resign. Sources within the DA told Daily Maverick many party members were unhappy with Cabanac’s appointment, warning that it risked alienating voters and undermining the party’s efforts to present itself as a unifying force in South African politics. “A chief of staff cannot be on the news more than his principal,” said a senior DA member. “He had to go or John was going to spend a lot of time defending the appointment and not the work of his office.”  Click here to read full article derived from msn.com.

After a dry winter over much of South Africa's northern interior, the first rains of the 2024/25 summer season are expected in the coming days. Showers and thundershowers are forecast for the summer rainfall regions, with the eastern Free State, KZN, and Lesotho likely to receive early rainfall. While overall rainfall will be below normal, the upcoming showers are crucial for areas preparing for early planting, especially in the grain-production regions. A shift towards more positive rainfall patterns is anticipated from mid-September, although widespread thundershowers are expected by late next week. The cold front will bring cooler conditions, and isolated frost may develop in the Free State and Drakensberg. Fire dangers remain heightened due to warm, windy conditions across most of the interior. The winter rainfall regions will see light showers along the southern coastlines. Click here to read full CUMULUS report.

On Wednesday last week, the leaders of the parties that form the Government of National Unity (GNU) met to reflect on how the GNU is working. Three months have passed since 10 parties represented in Parliament signed a Statement of Intent committing themselves to work together in Government and Parliament to advance the country’s interests. The parties agreed to certain fundamental principles, including to respect the Constitution and the rule of law and to promote accountability, transparency, integrity and good governance. The parties also agreed on a common minimum programme that would form the basis of the work of the GNU. At its first Cabinet Lekgotla in mid-July, Ministers and Deputy Ministers drawn from the GNU partners, together with Directors-General and other officials, developed priority actions to give effect to the minimum programme. Since these priority actions were outlined in the Opening of Parliament Address on 18 July 2024, Ministers and Deputy Ministers have been hard at work to implement the tasks assigned to them. Read full article from thepresidency.gov.za here. 

The latest report on South Africa's logistics network reveals a slight decrease in container handling, with operations hindered by adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, and network outages. Cape Town and Durban ports were particularly affected by strong winds, high swells, and congestion. Rail operations also faced disruptions due to cable theft and a derailment. Internationally, port congestion remains high, with 8.2% of the global fleet stuck in ports. Air cargo at ORTIA saw a significant uptick, with volumes up 20% compared to September 2023. Despite challenges, cross-border road freight transit times improved across the SADC region. The report emphasises the need for substantial reforms, focussing on rail freight, infrastructure security, and port efficiency. Collaboration and data-sharing among stakeholders are highlighted as critical to improving South Africa’s logistics network and ensuring long-term operational success. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) has delivered six hydraulic shore tension units to the Ports of Cape Town and Ngqura to help curb shipping and cargo-handling delays caused by high swells at the busy ports. TNPA said the latest delivery brought the total number of mooring units delivered to the ports to 12 as part of a batch of 52 units procured in September 2023. Eight new units were also previously installed at the ports prior to the acquisition. Shipping and cargo handling operations at Cape Town and Ngqura ports are often impacted by strong winds reaching 35 to 50 knots and high sea swells exceeding 3.5 metres. These inclement weather conditions cause operational and safety disruptions leading to delays in vessel movements. The hydraulic tension mooring unit, a system placed on the quayside, ensures the safety of docked vessels by mitigating the severity of long-wave effects on vessels. The benefits of the system include minimised downtime and safety incidents during operations. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

There’s a lot at stake at COP 29 — the major U.N. climate conference taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, later this year — not least of which is setting a new climate finance target. Setting the goal last time didn’t exactly translate to meeting it, and this time around, most agree that the previous target of $100 billion a year for lower-income countries will hardly meet mounting needs. (On that point, Devex has a recent analysis showing how much climate finance is going to the most vulnerable countries. In 2022, some $115.9 billion was spent by developing economies.) A meeting of delegates in Baku last week evidently made little progress toward a new target. The main sticking points were the amount of money and who will be responsible for contributing to it, writes Devex contributor Tais Gadea Lara. “The discussions are still stuck in that developed countries continue to refuse to discuss quantitative proposals, effectively holding a number of crucial topics hostage to get what they want on the contributor base,” Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director at the IMAL Initiative for Climate and Development, tells Tais. Read full article here.

The African Development Bank has urged greater financing of sustainable agricultural policies, practices and innovation. Bank officials made the call at three events hosted by the Bank on the sidelines of the Africa Food Systems Summit 2024 which was held in Kigali, Rwanda September 2-6 under the theme “Innovate, Accelerate and Scale: Delivering food systems transformation in a digital and climate era.” The Summit brought together stakeholders from across the continent to discuss and advance solutions for transforming Africa's food systems. The three side events by the Bank, on Monday 2 September, focused respectively on Dakar 2 Summit updates, Fertilizer and Soil Health, and on facilitating dialogue and collaboration between the Bank’s Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation(link is external) (TAAT) and the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils (VACS)(link is external), a joint initiative of the U.S. Department of State, the African Union, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Click here to read full article.

Donald Trump’s proposed import tariffs are likely to see the cost of shipping goods by ocean increase, in a repeat of the market spike seen during his first term as US President. Trump defended his trade policy during last week’s presidential debate. The policy includes blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods from China. However, data released by Xeneta – the ocean freight rate intelligence platform – shows the last time Trump ramped up tariffs on China imports during the trade war in 2018, the ocean container shipping markets spiked more than 70%. On the critical trade from China to the US West Coast, average spot freight rates increased from $1 503 per FEU on January 1, 2018 to $2 604 per FEU on November 1 of that year. Trump stated during the debate with Kamala Harris that his proposed import tariffs would not result in increased prices for consumers, however, Sand disagrees. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

The Australian government has announced negotiations on the Australia-United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement have concluded. The agreement is set to provide a gateway for Australian exporters to diversify into the Middle East, a market of around 58m consumers and a combined GDP of A$1.4tn (US$950bn). Under the new trade agreement over 99 per cent of Australian products will enter the UAE tariff free, resulting in estimated tariff savings of A$135m in the first year, rising to A$160m per year once the agreement is fully implemented. Australian growers and food producers are estimated to incur tariff savings of A$50m per year for food and agriculture exports. In 2023, Australia exported almost 40,000 tonnes of vegetables to the UAE, worth A$34m, making the nation the second largest export destination for Australian vegetable produce by value, and largest by volume. Click here to read full article derived from fruitnet.com.

The long-term future of the South African mango export sector seems much brighter after a deal was announced to boost the introduction of new varieties in the country. Mangoes is one category of the South African subtropical export sector which has shown very little export growth since 2000. Based on three main varieties and a condensed production and export season, there has been little incentive for growers to increase their plantings. The recently announced acquisition by international breeder Sun World of the Biogold Group, a major South Africa-based global fruit variety rights manager trading as Citrogold in South Africa, is seen as one of the most significant developments in the country’s mango sector for more than two decades. The Biogold deal means that some of the most promising international varieties, plus those emerging from the local breeding programmes, will now be available to the industry. Read full article here.

Chile's fresh cherry exports have seen remarkable growth over the past decade, now accounting for nearly half of global trade by volume, with 90% of exports destined for China. In the 2023/24 marketing year, Chile is projected to export 375,000 tonnes of cherries, with China's rising consumption driving the demand. Chile remains the world’s top cherry exporter, exporting five times more than Turkey, the second-largest exporter. Despite slight production setbacks in 2023 due to weather conditions, exports to China rose by 3% in volume and nearly 15% in value. As Chile’s cherry production is forecast to hit a record 502,000 tonnes in 2024/25, its bilateral trade with China will continue to fuel the global cherry market, with China's imports expected to grow for the tenth consecutive year. Click here to read full Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade report by USDA.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

Explore the latest developments in the South African wine industry. Click here to read the August issue and stay updated on key insights and upcoming events.

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

Artificial Intelligence in Agriculture Conference

26-27 September 2024 | Indaba Hotel, Fourways

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Emergency AgriClimate Summit 24

26 September 2024 | Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria

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Garlic Conference for Garlic Growers

3 October 2024 | ARC Roodeplaat

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AgriSA Green Horizons Congress

9 - 10 October 2024 | V&A Waterfront Cape Town

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Sustainability Summit to Address Key Global Challenges in Water, Energy, Transport, Agriculture, and Smart City Infrastructure

15 October 2024 | Emperors Palace

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RPO Conference

17 October 2024 | Nampo, Bothaville

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SAIAE & PASAE International Symposium 2024

23 – 25 October 2024 | Grabouw, Western Cape

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AFMA Symposium 2024

31 October 2024 | CSIR International Convention Centre

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C&I Solar + Storage Summit

19-20 November 2024 | The Maslow Hotel, Johannesburg

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Shape Africa’s Agricultural Future at the Annual African Agri Investment Indaba 2024

18 – 20 November 2024 | Cape Town International Convention Centre

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• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
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• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
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