New IMF research highlights the crucial role of macroeconomic policies in preventing armed conflict, which can help save lives, reduce forced displacement, and protect economies from devastation. By using machine learning-based conflict predictions, the study finds that every $1 invested in prevention—through policies that promote economic stability, institutional strength, and local development—can save between $26 and $103 in potential conflict-related costs. These include humanitarian aid expenses and lost economic productivity. Countries at high risk of violence stand to benefit the most from proactive economic measures that foster stability before tensions escalate. The study identifies three key areas where macroeconomic policy can reduce the risk of conflict: stronger fiscal management, where governments invest in public services to address economic grievances; resilient labour markets, as employment opportunities reduce the likelihood of people resorting to violence; and international financial support, which has been shown to lower conflict risk by 1.5-4 percentage points. As global conflicts reach a 50-year high, the IMF is increasing its focus on fragile and conflict-affected states. Click here to read full report.

The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) increased 11 points from Q4 2024 to 70 in Q1 2025. This is the third consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest level since Q4 2021, a year of La Niña rainfall that boosted agricultural output. The current level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain optimistic about business conditions in the country. This optimism is a result of a combination of factors, including La Niña rains that support the 2024-25 agricultural season, improvements in port efficiency that supported exports in 2024, and the progress in controlling animal diseases. This survey was conducted in the third week of February, covering various agribusinesses operating in all agricultural subsectors across South Africa. The ACI comprises ten subindices; nine improved notably in Q1 2025, while one declined mildly. Here is the detailed view of the subindices. The turnover subindex confidence is up 14 points from Q4 2024 to 60 in Q1 2025. We observed most optimism in agribusinesses operating in fruits and winter crops, while others maintained a generally unchanged view from the previous quarter. Click here to read full report by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo. 

South Africa faces persistent economic challenges, including high unemployment, poverty, and inequality, which have been exacerbated by weak governance and declining productivity. The Government of National Unity, in power since June 2024, has committed to accelerating structural reforms initiated in 2020 to address these issues. Key initiatives include energy sector reforms, enabling private-sector participation in electricity generation, and logistics sector improvements to enhance freight rail and port operations. The IMF recommends additional reforms to unlock growth, including cutting red tape, supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and enhancing labour market flexibility to reduce unemployment. Strengthening anti-corruption measures and improving state-owned enterprise governance are also critical to restoring trust in public institutions. Recent IMF research suggests that halving regulatory and governance inefficiencies could boost economic output by 9% and significantly increase employment. Click here to read full article by imf.org.

Sean Walsh, chairperson of Agbiz, said in a statement that he understood that finding the right balance between government spending to boost economic growth and taxing the public was a difficult task. However, he expressed concern about the 1% VAT increase over two years announced by Godongwana, as many South African were already struggling to meet their basic food needs, despite South Africa having some of the most affordable food in the world and secure supply. He also emphasised the importance of economic reforms, spending prudence and reducing wasteful expenditure to set the country on a long-term path of economic growth. “We need to seriously implement the economic reforms referred to in past budget speeches and normalise government spending on welfare programmes.” Theo Boshoff, Agbiz CEO, added that the implementation of Operation Vulindlela needed to be government’s first priority. “We need a reformed financial model for local government, and this should receive priority to reduce the high costs of doing business due to basic service delivery challenges. We have heard repeated reference to the White Paper on Local Government, but little is known about what reforms it will propose.” Click here to read full farmersweekly.co.za article and click here to read Agbiz Press Release – Budget Speech 2025. 

At a time of heightened geoeconomic tensions, it is tempting to argue that countries, industries and businesses must align with particular interests or regions. For businesses and industries, the ideal path should be to remain neutral and continue to broaden business activity with a wider range of countries. This is especially critical for South Africa's agriculture. The sector is export-oriented, with exports reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% year-on-year. The export markets and products are varied, with the African continent absorbing nearly half, while the EU, Middle and Asia, and the UK are also sizable markets. South Africa should not rest on this success, but should maintain deepen trade relations in regions where capacity remains. The EU-South Africa agricultural trade has had a few frictions, mainly related to citrus. There is growing sentiment amongst the EU farmers that the region must manage its imports and protect the domestic producers. We don't believe the EU policymakers would respond to farmers' needs through tariffs or stronger policies discouraging imports. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa's agricultural machinery sales are showing signs of recovery. For example, tractor sales increased for the second consecutive month, up 21% year-on-year in February 2025, with 638 units sold. This follows a 28% sales jump in January 2025. The combine harvesters' sales were up 6% year-on-year in February, with 19 units sold. The increase in sales reflects the positive sentiment in the sector about the harvest based on favourable weather conditions and the base effects. The weak performance in agricultural machinery sales in 2024 resulted from various factors. First, South Africa's agricultural sector had higher machinery sales between 2020 and 2023. Improved farmers' incomes supported higher sales due to ample harvest and higher commodity prices. Thus, there was bound to be some correction, leading to a moderation in sales in 2024. Second, after a few good agricultural years, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season, weighing on farmers' fortunes and worsening sales performance. Farmers were under financial pressure because of the crop losses. For example, the 2023-24 mid-summer drought has led to a 23% decline in South Africa's summer grains and oilseed production to 15,53 million tonnes. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

The challenges that have constrained South Africa's agricultural growth potential in the past few years remain. These include poorly functioning municipalities, deteriorating roads and rail, inefficiencies at the ports, the slow process of releasing government-owned land to beneficiaries with title deeds, higher crime levels, and stock theft, amongst other issues. These challenges must be resolved for South Africa's agriculture to grow robustly in the coming years. At the start of the year, we expected that the focus would primarily continue to be on a collaborative approach between the government and private sector to tackle these challenges. However, much of the public discourse has been on international trade risks and misinformation about land reform policy in South Africa. While it is important to address the misinformation and the risks it presents to South Africa's participation in AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), these two issues must not take all the focus and efforts of stakeholders. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa’s soybean production has grown significantly since the dawn of democracy, from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993/94 production season to an expected 2,3 million tonnes in 2024/25. The growing demand for soybean oilcake or meal by the animal feed industry stimulated this growth. This, in turn, has been driven by an increase in the demand for high-protein food, particularly poultry products. South Africa’s per capita consumption of poultry meat has almost doubled over the past 17 years, currently estimated at around 41 kilograms. To service the growing demand, South African agribusinesses, supported by the government, made investments to increase domestic soybean processing capacity from roughly 860,000 tonnes in 2012 to around 2.2 million tonnes now. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

We spent the past two days – March 12 and 13 -- in Gqeberha attending the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa 2025 Summit. The Theme of the Summit was "Tough times don't last, tough people do". We got to listen to exceptional speakers on various themes, from political economy, Asian citrus market dynamics, SA citrus growth prospects and export strategies, and logistics issues, amongst other themes. The event was well attended with roughly 700 delegates – growers, traders, government offices, agricultural leaders, and logistics companies. When one examines South Africa's agriculture production and export data today, citrus typically ranks first. The country's production of oranges, grapefruit, mandarins, and lemons has increased significantly. But it was not always the case. About three decades ago, the industries at the top of the list were mainly maize, poultry, dairy, deciduous fruit, and other livestock production. In export data, maize, wool, wine, and various fruits were primarily on the top, and citrus didn't feature prominently. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo. 

The agricultural sector now enjoys universal recognition and its status as a growth propeller is embraced in a way that transcends sectoral interests. Specifically, the country’s political leadership deeply appreciates the importance of agriculture in driving the rural economy, addressing poverty and creating job opportunities. Much has also been written about the sector’s untapped opportunities for unlocking growth and addressing racial inequities in its ownership. Our attempt in this book is to move the conversation even further and provide a more concrete view of how to unlock the agricultural potential in South Africa fully. We specifically attempt to highlight some uncomfortable truths about South Africa’s agriculture by focusing on some key principles and highlighting policies and economic realities. This is done in the hope that everyone will now have the same level of understanding of the specific needs and interventions in the sector. While the contents may be uncomfortable for some, this book is intended to ignite an urgent call for decisive policy and programme implementation and to demand stronger collaboration among social partners. Click here to learn more. Click here to purchase.

South Africa contains a contradiction: it is the leading agricultural exporter in Africa, even as the number of households in the country that are food insecure grows. Without proper policy engagement on this challenge, the sector faces the risk of more misconceptions about its export-driven growth drive while many South Africans are impoverished. An accurate diagnosis of the problem and its underlying causes is critical to formulating a suitable policy response. In February 2025, Stats SA released the Food Security Report for 2019, 2022 and 2023 (the pandemic affected the ability to collect data in 2020 and 2021). The report used data from the General Household Survey for those years. Click here to read article and listen to podcast. 

Farming in South Africa has taken root in political discourse. Not just on the domestic political agenda, but also under the Trump administration. The US President is offering a fast-track to citizenship for South African farmers. A new book, The Uncomfortable Truth about South Africa's Agriculture', lays bare the problems from ownership disparities to policy roadblocks. Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz Agricultural Economist and author, has more on this. Click here to watch. Click here to learn more.

The Agbiz Grain SHEQ, or safety, health, environment and quality, seminar held in Pretoria last year brought together industry leaders to discuss critical issues pertaining to the grain storage sector. The key topics included the Agbiz Grain SHEQ compliance audit, alcohol and substance abuse in the workplace (especially cannabis use), workplace injuries and challenges such as medical practitioners refusing to treat injury-on-duty (IOD) cases, employees faking IODs, and navigating compensation under the Compensation for Occupational Injuries and Diseases Act, 1993 (Act 130 of 1993) or COIDA. The first session addressed the need for audit criteria tailored to the grain storage sector. Due to the industry being unique with distinct risks and mitigation methods, a sector-specific audit document needs to be created. This document, developed by a sector committee with external input, will cover all compliance aspects for grain storage facilities. Click here to read full article by By Christal-Lize Muller, Plaas Media.

New IMF research highlights the crucial role of macroeconomic policy in preventing armed conflict and reducing humanitarian crises. Simulations using machine learning-based predictions show that every $1 invested in prevention—through economic stability, institutional strengthening, and local development—can save between $26 and $103 in potential conflict-related costs. The research identifies three key policy areas that reduce the risk of violence: strong fiscal management, where governments invest in public services; resilient labour markets, as job opportunities deter armed conflict; and international financial support, which has been shown to lower conflict risk by 1.5-4 percentage points. With global conflict levels at a 50-year high, the IMF emphasises the need for early warning systems in fragile states to detect rising tensions before violence erupts. These findings reinforce the importance of targeted economic policies in fostering peace, stability, and long-term development. Click here to read full article by imf.org.

South Africa is seeing a "doubling down" of G20 partners, European countries, the Far East, and the Middle East who are eager to help fill the gap in funding of the Just Energy Transition (JET) left following the withdrawal of the partnership by the US recently. America had pledged a total of $1.5 billion (R27bn) in grants and additional commitments from private American businesses, but that has recently been cancelled. Speaking at a webinar, "Understanding green finance mechanisms and options for South Africa’s decarbonisation and just energy transition," Deputy Minister of Energy and Electricity Samantha Graham-Maré said that though the US is now trying to censure South Africa from the transitioning process, the country would, in all likelihood, have to follow in Brazil's steps and have consensus on the ministerial statement, which means that it will be reduced to some form of a communiqué that is issued at the end of the year. Graham-Maré said, "We have received some incredible support from the rest of the G20 countries. There has been a doubling down and we have seen that with European countries, in particular.” Click here to read full article.

Research company Bureau for Economic Research (BER) finds in its latest Inflation Expectations Survey for the first quarter of the year that respondents expect headline consumer inflation this year to be 4.3%. The forecast was revised downward from an initial 4.5% expectation for consumer inflation made late last year in the prior survey. BER conducts a quarterly survey to measure inflation expectations and other macroeconomic variables related to inflation, on behalf of the South African Reserve Bank, which takes the survey into consideration when it decides on the interest rate. This was despite a slight uptick in reported yearly inflation between the two survey periods – from 2.8% in October last year to 3.2% in January. Looking further ahead, respondents’ expectations for 2026 were unchanged at 4.6%, though they expect a slight increase to 4.7% in 2027. BER says analysts are more optimistic among the three social groups, expecting inflation of only 3.9% this year, then stabilising at 4.3% in the following two years. Click here to read full article from engineeringnews.co.za.

The 2025 Grain SA Congress, held on 12-13 March under the theme A Producer’s Journey, from Surviving to Thriving, brought together key stakeholders, industry experts, and policymakers to address pressing challenges and opportunities in the grain sector. Discussions focused on policy engagement, technological advancements, economic resilience, and global market trends affecting South African grain producers. In his farewell address, outgoing Grain SA Chairperson Derek Mathews emphasised the resilience and determination of South African grain producers. He commended the sector’s ability to adapt to economic volatility, climate challenges, and shifting legislative landscapes while reaffirming Grain SA’s dedication to farmer development and national food security. A key issue raised was the recent implementation of the Expropriation Act, which Grain SA strongly opposes in its current form. Mathews warned of the potential risks the law poses to agricultural stability and investment, reinforcing the organisation’s commitment to protecting farmer rights and advocating for responsible land policies. Click here to read full press release.

It is a well-known story, that of a family who are gifted a chicken in its egg-laying prime and must decide what to do with it. They can either feed it and let it lay many eggs to produce more chickens for multiple cooking needs; or eat it at once. The wise families let the chicken lay as many eggs as possible before converting the bird into dinner a long time after taking possession of it. The unwise families slaughter the chicken and eat it after only a few eggs, which the family proceeds to eat. – ending up with nothing. That is the story of South Africa’s budget since 2013. We have transformed from hatching eggs, eating some and hatching more; to eating the eggs and whatever chickens are still running around. In the late 1990s South Africa chose to save eggs, hatch them, grow egg-laying chickens and provide an increasingly balanced diet for citizens while preparing for a rainy day. That strategy, which saw the country paying down national debt, growing the economy by more than 5% at some stage and reduce unemployment from 32% in 2000 to 21% by 2007. Click here to read full article derived from songezo.substack.com.

The latest report on South Africa’s economic and employment trends highlights a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, which dropped from 32.1% to 31.9% in Q4 2024. This decline was driven by employment growth in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Gauteng, while the Free State, North West, and Limpopo recorded job losses. The finance sector saw the largest job gains, adding 232,000 new positions, whereas community and social services experienced the highest losses. Economic data shows that GDP growth is primarily fuelled by foreign investment, as the production value of multinational companies in South Africa outpaces that of local businesses abroad. However, South Africa's exports rely more on rising prices than increased volumes, which poses long-term sustainability concerns. The report also notes shifts in consumer price index (CPI) weights, with significant increases in spending on restaurants, accommodation, and digital services. Additionally, South Africa maintains stricter Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regulations than the OECD median, particularly in sectors like transport, media, and aquaculture. Click here to read full report. 

While the general date for application is still 18 months away, South Africa’s pome and stonefruit industries are actively engaged in processes to adhere to the packaging regulations. South Africa is reacting to the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), which is now very much a reality with a general date of application in around 18 months’ time. The country, like most other exporting nations, has a long history of using plastic components in fruit export packaging. These components have been developed over decades, mostly with the aim of delivering products in the best condition and quality, thousands of kilometres away, across oceans and on other continents. Transitioning to alternatives can be challenging and sometimes takes time to implement to reduce unnecessary waste and to ensure that quality is maintained. ”South African stonefruit and pomefruit industry organisation Hortgro, together with Greencape, is engaging with the plastics industry (recyclers and innovators) for alternatives and longer-term solutions to meet the South African Plastics Pact target.” Click here to read full article by fruitnet.com.

Rain during February halted harvesting of the early lemon crop in the upper north of South Africa, which has been somewhat frustrating to growers who are, for the first time in years, noting a really early pull for South African lemons from Southeast Asian countries. The reason is the lower crop emanating from China, although details of China's domestic citrus production remain opaque, notes Hannes de Waal, managing director of the Sundays River Citrus Company and chairperson of the board running the Citrus Growers' Association. On citrus farms in the Senwes area of Limpopo (Groblersdal/Marble Hall) and down in the Eastern Cape, Easter weekend marks the start of the lemon harvest. In the Sundays River Valley the first lemon set is very light, De Waal remarks. "But," he adds, "there will be sufficient lemons for all markets globally from South Africa." There is no published official lemon export estimate for South Africa yet. With maturing new orchards there could be growth, perhaps counterweighted by the severe frost in the interior and north of the country in July last year. Click here to read full article derived from freshplaza.com.

Table grape export volumes from Cape Town continue to surpass those of the previous season despite more than twice the number of windbound hours in February compared to February 2024. Yet despite 140 more windbound hours in February, up until Week 10, the port exported 3% more table grapes compared to a year before, with 96.1 million 4.5kg cartons shipped. In its latest season update, the South African Table Grape Industry (Sati) notes a 5% increase in the volume of table grapes inspected for export up to and including Week 10 of the year, numbering 76.91m 4.5kg equivalent. This is 0.5% more than the national crop estimate of 76.4m cartons. Up to Week 10, 77% of volumes were exported to the EU and the UK, and 10% to North America. Antoinette van Heerden, logistical affairs manager at the Fresh Produce Exporters’ Forum (FPEF), noted that the CTCT was now operating nine out of nine ship-to-shore cranes, and 24 out of 24 rubber-tyred gantry (RTG) cranes. Read full freightnews.co.za article here. 

Unusually high rainfall and humidity hit the Lower Orange River, but supplies are holding up. South African raisin suppliers are targeting a high-volume, quality export crop despite production being impacted by unseasonal weather. Drying conditions for raisins in the Lower Orange River region of South Africa were hit by unusually high rainfall and humidity in week 10 of 2025, with some crops lost due to weaker drying ratios, lower sugar content and a higher percentage of no-value product. Despite that, thanks to an excellent pre-harvest season, crop development is only delayed by around two weeks and suppliers are still expecting a marketable crop in the region of 96,000-104,000 tonnes. Approximately 46 per cent of this season’s crop has already been delivered to packers and exporters. With the industry producing a final total of 96,000t in 2023/24, it is highly likely that even with the weather challenges, 2024/25 will produce another crop above 90,000t. The continued growth of the sector is thanks primarily to the establishment of around 2,535ha of new land for raisin production across both the Orange River and Olifants River regions between 2020 and 2022. Click here to read full article by fruitnet.com.

The latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update highlights a 14% increase in port volumes and a 9% rise in air cargo flows over the past week, signalling positive movement in South Africa’s trade and logistics sector. However, operational challenges persist due to weather disruptions, equipment breakdowns, and infrastructure constraints at major ports, including Durban and Cape Town. Key developments include MSC’s acquisition of an 80% stake in Hutchison Ports, positioning it as the world’s largest container terminal operator. Global shipping trends also reflect continued slow-steaming practices to align with carbon emission targets. Meanwhile, rail inefficiencies remain a concern, costing the economy approximately R1 billion per day, emphasising the urgency of Transnet’s restructuring efforts. On the air cargo front, volumes at OR Tambo International Airport rebounded after weeks of decline, exceeding both 2024 averages and pre-pandemic levels. Internationally, the China-to-US air cargo market weakened, while demand for shipments to Europe remained stable. Cross-border trade saw improved transit times, with delays at key border posts, including Lebombo and Beitbridge, gradually decreasing. However, road congestion, flooding-related closures, and regulatory changes continue to pose challenges for freight movement within the SADC region. Click here to read full report. 

In this insightful discussion with Anlie Hattingh on AgriXtra, Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff unpacks the newly signed Expropriation Act, shedding light on its implications for land reform and property rights. While some see the legislation as a step forward, others fear its impact on private ownership. Boshoff provides a balanced perspective, separating fact from fiction and exploring what this means for the agricultural sector. Click here to watch the full interview.

Wolfe Braude, Fruit Desk Manager at Agbiz Fruit, discusses the latest developments in South Africa's trade environment and their impact on the agricultural sector. He also highlights the role of Agbiz Fruit and its contributions to supporting and growing the fruit industry. Click here to watch to learn more about trade insights and Agbiz Fruit’s key initiatives!

In this insightful interview with Anlie Hattingh, Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff reviews the key milestones and challenges of 2024 while sharing his vision for 2025. The discussion dives into crucial topics such as Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, sustainable practices across agriculture and its value chains, and what lies ahead for the industry. Click here to watch full interview.

While the South African citrus industry is facing uncertain times, its immense growth trajectory is assured if market access opportunities are seized and logistics challenges are addressed with urgency. This was one of the clear messages coming out of the 5th Citrus Summit, hosted by the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), which brought together the entire citrus industry in Gqeberha from 11 - 13 March. The Summit's keynote address was delivered by the Minister of Agriculture, John Steenhuisen. "South Africa's citrus industry is one of the success stories of our country," he said, noting that "it created countless jobs in our rural communities - where we need them most." Click here to read full statement by CGA.

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

IFPA Fresh Solutions Stellenbosch

26 March 2025 | Cavalli Estate, Somerset West, Cape Town

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Mzansi Young Farmers Indaba

1-2 April 2025 | Lavender Kontrei Market, Pretoria North, Gauteng 

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Transforming Poultry Productivity and Empowering Sustainability in Africa

29-30 April 2025 | The Garden Venue, Johannesburg, South Africa

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BUSA Sustaining Progress Conference 2025

29 May 2025 | Focus Rooms, Modderfontein

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3rd Annual Food Waste Solutions Summit

26-27 June 2025 | Hotel Sky, Sandton

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International Fresh Produce Association’s Southern Africa Conference

23-24 July 2025 | Pretoria, South Africa

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South African Sugar Technologists’ Association Congress 2025 

12-14 August 2025 | ICC Durban

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• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.