During President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, America launched an all-out trade war with China to boost US manufacturing, secure US national security interests and resolve what Trump believed was an extremely out-of-balance trade relationship. President Joe Biden kept most of those tariffs in place and added a few new ones, too. While leaders of the two nations continue to butt heads, US consumers have paid the price, shelling out more money on goods imported from China. Now, Trump is focusing his attention on America’s largest and third-largest trading partners: Mexico and Canada. And he’s promising something extraordinary: Come January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated, he pledges he will slap a new, 25%, across-the-board tariff on all goods the US imports from its closest neighbors — goods that are almost all coming across the border for free because of the Trump-negotiated US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Click here to read full article derived from edition.cnn.com.

The Department of Agriculture wishes to update stakeholders on the ongoing Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. While outbreaks in all other previously affected provinces have been resolved and officially closed with the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), focused efforts are ongoing to manage and contain the disease in these two areas. The FMD outbreak in the Eastern Cape, first detected in May 2024, has affected 37 farms in the Humansdorp area and one farm in East London. Additionally, 36 farms were pre-emptively vaccinated to reduce the spread of the virus and mitigate clinical symptoms. Since the outbreak began, 96,906 cattle and 635 sheep have been vaccinated. A Disease Management Area (DMA), declared in July 2024, remains in effect. Movement of animals into, through, or out of this area is restricted and permitted only with authorisation from the State Veterinary office. Click here to read full statement by the Ministry of Agriculture.

After starting the year with an El-Niño-induced drought that negatively impacted on summer crops, high interest rates, animal disease woes and the persistent logistical crisis, sentiment in the agriculture sector of South Africa has improved towards the end of the year. The initial despondency was reflected in the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and Industrial Development Corporation’s Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) in the second quarter, when the headline reading decreased to its lowest level in 15 years, at 38. These challenges – and an expected contraction in the sector for the year, which followed a contraction in the previous year – have played out in subdued bank performance, according to data from the Banking Association of South Africa for June 2023 to June this year. “A period of consolidation was evident, with exposure to the sector drifting sideways. Demand for credit was down but deposits were at an all-time high, which suggests that farmers were cautious and delayed capital expenditure over the period,” says Nedbank commercial banking agriculture head John Hudson. Read full article here.

When South Africa assumes the leadership of the Group of 20 (G20) on December 1 2024, the country will be in a prime position to chair the Business Forum, the B20. The G20 comprises 19 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Russia, Türkiye, the UK, and the USA) and two bodies: the African Union and the European Union. South Africa's agenda is under the theme of "Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability." The B20 brings together business representatives from the G20 countries and sets out workstreams that take their cue from the theme defined by the government, although its actual work is autonomous. The process for formulating the priorities of the business community should soon be underway. Going to the G20, the South African agricultural sector, as a critical stakeholder in the B20, will need to outline bold goals. First, there should be a strong call for knowledge sharing on climate-smart agricultural practices. This theme is relevant not only for the G20 countries but also for the African continent. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

We are ending this year with food price inflation — the rate at which prices are increasing — cooling off to levels we have not seen in years. For example, having stabilised at 4,1% in September 2024, consumer food price inflation slowed notably to 2,8% in October. This is the lowest level since May 2019. The deceleration was broad — except for “sugar, sweets and desserts”, which lifted somewhat. The slowdown was largely driven by base effects, as food price inflation was elevated this time last year. For example, this time last year, grain prices faced upward pressure after India’s rice export ban, while a bird flu outbreak constrained egg supplies, exacerbating price risks. However, India has resumed rice exports, prices have slowed generally, and poultry product supplies have normalised. Also worth noting is that the recovery in vegetable supplies across various fresh produce markets in the country added to the softening of prices. We had a brief period of elevated vegetable prices after the black frost in Limpopo, which damaged some potato fields. Fortunately, the supplies are recovering.  Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Southern Africa has experienced agricultural trade friction in the past few years since Namibia and Botswana banned the import of South African vegetables and citrus. Simply put, the rationale of both Namibia and Botswana was that the import ban ensures their domestic producers are not exposed to South African competition, thus giving them space to rebuild for self-sufficiency. All these countries are members of the Southern African Customs Union, and such a policy reaction disrespects the spirit of free trade. While South African fruit exports could be redirected to other markets worldwide, the vegetable industry had to bear the financial impact of reduced regional demand. Beyond breaching the spirit of the customs union, Botswana and Namibia also have limitations in the potential of their land to produce sufficient high-quality vegetables. Thus, there have been reports of food inflation in these countries. Click here to listen to full podcast – Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo. Click here to listen to ‘Farmers need more support’ on moneyweb.co.za.

Trade between African countries is not always easy. South Africa has faced friction over agricultural trade in recent years from both Namibia and Botswana. With a new administration in place now in Botswana, Agricultural Economist Wandile Sihlobo believes now is the right time for countries under the South African Customs Union to look at restarting and improving the agricultural trade relationship. Sihlobo explains how South Africa can improve its agricultural relationships. Click here to watch full interview by Newzroom Afrika.

Agbiz Grain Quarterly, a digital magazine dedicated to South Africa's grain handling and storage industry, has just released its November 2024 issue. This edition spotlights groundbreaking research on hyperspectral imaging and the benefits of agritech in advancing farming practices. Additionally, it covers new trade opportunities with China and the Middle East, discusses a proposed ‘food stamp’ system for South Africa, and highlights recent developments in agricultural legislation. Readers can explore topics such as strategies for future-proofing food security, key laws and regulations in the agricultural sector, and the role of South Africa’s mineral wealth in supporting agriculture. The issue also delves into innovative approaches to grain grading using hyperspectral imaging and provides updates on statutory measures for winter grains, along with insights into fumigation and pest control compliance. To download the current PDF version of Agbiz Grain Quarterly click here and to download the digimag click here. 

Agbiz Grain and the Peritum Agri Institute are collaborating to accelerate the development of grain silo managers in South Africa. Agbiz Grain is an organisation that promotes the shared interests of commercial grain handlers and storage operators, the Agbiz Grain members, by providing support and influencing the grain industry. South Africa produces an average of 13.5 million tonnes of maize and an additional 1.9 million tonnes of wheat annually. In addition, other grains such as barley and sorghum, as well as oilseeds like sunflower, canola, and soybeans, are also cultivated on a large scale. Approximately 70% of the grain and oilseeds produced in South Africa are stored by the twelve members of Agbiz Grain. Collectively, these companies manage 334 silo complexes, which include concrete silos, silo bags, and bunkers. Click here to read full statement and learn more. Registrations close on 24 January 2025. The program begins on 17 February 2025. For more details, visit Peritum Agri’s website or contact marketing@peritumagri.com. 

Donald Trump has chosen Brooke Rollins, president of the America First Policy Institute, to be agriculture secretary. “As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American Farmers, who are truly the backbone of our Country,” the US president-elect said in a statement. Trump’s nomination of Rollins marks the completion of his top cabinet picks for his incoming administration. If confirmed by the Senate, Rollins would lead a 100,000-person agency with offices in every county in the country, whose remit includes farm and nutrition programs, forestry, home and farm lending, food safety, rural development, agricultural research, trade and more. It had a budget of $437.2bn in 2024. The nominee’s agenda would carry implications for American diets and wallets, both urban and rural. Department of Agriculture officials and staff negotiate trade deals, guide dietary recommendations, inspect meat, fight wildfires and support rural broadband, among other activities. Click here to read full article derived from theguardian.com.

The China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Products, and Animal By-Products (CFNA) is making efforts to expand the Chinese blueberry market, considering the increase in the production of new varieties and sales opportunities in the region. This is confirmed by the creation of the first Blueberry Committee of the Chamber of Commerce made up of important international companies with operations in China, including Camposol, Agrovision, Agroberries, Driscoll's, Fall Creek, and PLANASA, among others. One of the companies invited to join the committee was Giddings Fruit, along with local breeders and growers. In conversation with Freshfruitportal.com, Gonzalo Matamala, general manager of Giddings Fruit Asia Pacific (APAC) & Mainland China, confirmed the news, indicating that the formation of the committee is a sign that blueberries will soon be an export flag in China's fresh produce category. Read full article derived from freshfruitportal.com here.

Some British retailers and wholesalers have been forced to switch to sourcing oranges from South Africa and South America early after last month’s catastrophic floods in eastern Spain left farmers struggling to harvest and ship their crops. Companies in the UK have moved to buying fruit from the southern hemisphere several weeks earlier than in a typical year to prevent gaps emerging on supermarket shelves and amid fears over the quality of Spanish produce. Persimmons, also known as sharon or kaki fruit, have been affected even worse than oranges by the flooding as they are more delicate than citrus, analysts and industry insiders said. The Valencian branch of Asaja, Spain’s biggest farming association, has estimated that the floods have resulted in losses of more than €1bn for the region’s agricultural sector. “The damage is catastrophic in terms of output, cultivated fields, agrarian infrastructure, agricultural machinery and vehicles, livestock farms and nurseries – and in terms of the lands lost as entire fields have disappeared,” it said. Click here to read full article from theguardian.com.

In 2023 total investment in the country amounted to just over R1 trillion. Total GDP was just over R7 trillion, which means investment came to 15% of GDP. It is below the 25% National Development Plan’s ambition but still an enormous number. It comes to R114 million per hour, every hour of each of the 365 days of the year! (Just for fun, some context on numbers we use so glibly: If one counts at a speed of 1 digit every second, it will take 5 seconds to get to 5 and 10 seconds to get to 10, and so on. To get to 1 million will take 11.5 days; 1 billion 31.7 years; and 1 trillion 31 709 years! To get to R114 million will take 3.6 years.) Traditionally, fixed investment in South Africa comprised about two-thirds from the private sector and one third from the public sector. In recent years, the public sector share has declined, and the private sector share has increased. By 2023, the numbers came to 71% and 29%, respectively. The private sector is becoming ever more important. Click here to read full article by JP Landman. Click here to listen to podcast. 

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing at 2.7% per year and is expected to reach two billion by the year 2050. The region’s urban population is growing even faster: it was at 533 million in 2023, a 3.85% increase from 2022. The need to feed this population will put pressure on land and water resources. I’m part of a group of researchers who have looked at whether regional food production would be sufficient to supply growing urban populations. By and large, we have found high levels of food self-sufficiency. But climate change could put a spanner in the works. We have also looked at the potential of local water conservation measures to help achieve food self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Our study shows that measures such as better irrigation or water harvesting could boost food production while buffering the vagaries of weather. We found that ambitious – yet realistic – adoption of such measures increases food supply to cities and makes the region as a whole self-sufficient. Click here to read full article derived from theconversation.com.

India and South Africa share a historically profound and strategically significant relationship shaped by shared struggles against colonialism and apartheid. This bond is strengthened through platforms like BRICS, which facilitates political and economic collaboration. Alongside China and Russia, India and South Africa also actively participate in the IBSA Dialogue Forum with Brazil to address social, economic, and political issues of global importance. Ongoing discussions for a preferential trade agreement between India and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) hold the promise of reduced trade barriers and enhanced market access, fostering greater trade volumes and investment. In August 2024, South Africa’s Trade, Industry, and Competition Minister Parks Tau reaffirmed the commitment to bolstering bilateral trade and investment during the launch of the India-South Africa Chamber of Commerce (ISACC). Click here to read full article derived from india-briefing.com.

On October 25, 2024 the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) published a National Smart Agriculture Action Plan (2024-2028) (hereafter “Action Plan”). The Action Plan highlights the PRC’s goal of creating new digital platforms to integrate big data, deploying new software and machinery to improve efficiency, and digitizing data collection throughout the supply chain. The PRC has invested heavily in new high-tech agricultural production technologies and this Action Plan signals a commitment to getting these technologies out of the laboratory and into the field. However, no new resources or funding for this initiative was announced. Due to its geography and large population, the PRC faces unique dynamics related to food production. PRC officials frequently cite that China has less than 10 percent of the world’s arable land and even less usable water to support roughly 19 percent of the world’s population. Despite being a world leader in production volume for many crops, the average farm size is about 0.65 hectares (1.6 acres). The level of intensification needed to sustain this production on a limited land base means that Chinese agricultural soils are under pressure, pest and disease outbreaks can have outsize impact, and climate and environmental changes are keenly felt. Click here to read full report by USDA.

The COP29 Presidency of Azerbaijan today announced the agreement of the Baku Finance Goal (BFG), a new commitment to channel $1.3tn of climate finance to the developing world each year. Success on the COP29 Presidency’s top priority for the UN Climate Summit represents a significant uplift from the previous climate finance goal of $100 billion and will unlock a new wave of global investment. The Baku Finance Goal contains a core target for developed countries to take the lead on mobilizing at least $300 billion per year for developing countries by 2035. This represents a $50bn increase on the previous draft text, and is the product of 48 hours of intensive diplomacy by the COP29 Presidency. It pays special consideration to support the least developed countries and small island developing states, with provisions on accessibility and transparency. The Baku Finance Goal is the centrepiece of a package of agreements that deliver progress across all climate pillars. Click here to read full article derived from cop29.az.

This week’s logistics report highlights challenges in South Africa's port and freight operations due to adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, and staff shortages. Port activity slowed, with a daily average of 11,040 TEUs handled, while Durban saw improvement with its helicopter back in service. Globally, container freight rates dropped, yet charter rates surged due to tight supply. Air cargo volumes at ORTIA remain strong, showing significant growth compared to pre-pandemic levels. Regionally, border crossing times increased, with several SADC posts taking over a day to clear. To stay competitive amidst global shipping fragmentation and rising tonne-mile growth, South Africa must address inefficiencies, enhance port operations, and foster stronger trade linkages. Digitalisation and stakeholder collaboration are vital to maintaining the country’s strategic role in global trade, especially in the Global South. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

We are excited to announce that Agbiz will be moving to our new office in the week of 2 to 6 December. Our new location will be at Agri-Hub Office Park, Block C, First Floor, 477 Witherite Street, The Willows, Pretoria. If you have any questions or need further information, please reach out to Retha at admin@agbiz.co.za.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

Agbiz Media Day

6 December 2024 | Grain Building Auditorium, 477 Witherite Street, The Willows

Register

ESG & Value Addition in Agriculture Conference 2024

4-5 December 2024 | Garden Court OR Tambo Johannesburg

Learn more 

NCM 89th AGM & Congress

13-14 March 2025 | Zebula Golf Estate & Spa

Learn more 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.