Over the past few years, a surge in food and energy prices has led to inflation and hindered economic growth. The prices of food and energy commodities have steadily risen, particularly after the onset of the pandemic and the historic highs reached following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While international prices have since decreased, they have still contributed to an upward push on domestic inflation. Additionally, high energy prices have raised input and transportation costs, which have negatively impacted economic activity and resulted in higher food prices due to production linkages. Consequently, a cost-of-living crisis has emerged, with vulnerable economies and individuals being particularly affected, resulting in a marked increase in food insecurity. Empirical data suggests that the increased volatility of commodity prices is likely to impede medium-term growth and increase inflation variability. Please click here to access the G20 note.

The global economy’s “speed limit” – the maximum long-term rate at which it can grow without sparking inflation – is set to slump to a three-decade low by 2030. An ambitious policy push is needed to boost productivity and the labour supply, ramp up investment and trade, and harness the potential of the services sector, a new World Bank report shows. The report, Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies, offers the first comprehensive assessment of long-term potential output growth rates in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These rates can be thought of as the global economy’s “speed limit.” Read more in the linked World Bank media statement.

The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) released a draft policy on Water and Sanitation Services Policy on Privately Owned Land for public review on 22 November 2022. The deadline for comments has been extended to 31 March 2023. Agbiz prepared draft comments, requested member feedback, and submitted the final comments. The policy outlines DWS's responsibilities in regulating and supporting water services for residents on private land, along with basic principles for achieving access to water-related infrastructure on such land. In the linked article, Agbiz head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby provides more information.

Additional reassuring information has been received that the erratic weather conditions at the start of the 2022/23 summer production season had minimal impact on South Africa's summer grains and oilseeds. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee this week places South Africa’s 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production at 19,6 million tonnes, up 2% from last month’s figure and 5% higher than the previous season. This is primarily on the back of expected higher yields as the overall planted area for summer grains and oilseeds are 4,4 million hectares, roughly unchanged from the previous season. The persistent load-shedding raised concerns that areas under irrigation could receive poor yields. Thankfully, the favourable rainfall, at a moderate pace, from mid-February provided a much-needed breather and improved crop conditions. In the linked article, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest crop estimates data.

Although we continue to argue that South Africa should expand its agricultural export markets to new frontiers such as India, China, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, amongst others, the export drive should not be at the expense of the existing markets. We should actively engage with existing markets to stimulate the continued expansion of South African agricultural exports. The engagement should focus on the EU and Asia, both crucial regions for export growth, and the rest of the African continent. Read more in the linked article by Wandile Sihlobo.

The just-concluded Africa Agri Tech Conference and Exhibition was dedicated to connecting the southern African agricultural, scientific, and technology communities at one event, staged over three days. The event delivered premium insights coupled with best-in-class presenters and suppliers; exploring global trends and advances in agricultural science, technology, and innovation; and the benefits that these will bring to the agricultural ecosystem in the future. Wandile Sihlobo spoke to the international news channel Arise News about this event. Please click here to view the interview.

In its recent reading, after a 4-point decline in Q4 2022, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) deteriorated further by 5 points in Q1 2023 to 44. The current reading is the lowest since Q2 2020 when Covid-19 lockdown restrictions were first implemented. Notably, the first quarter reading is below the neutral 50-point level, implying that agribusinesses are downbeat about business conditions. In this week's podcast, Wandile Sihlobo discusses sentiments in South African agriculture and agribusiness. This is an important matter because it influences the long-term investment path and growth of the sector. The sentiments in agriculture are measured through the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI). Please click here to peruse.

The Indian government announced on Tuesday that the wheat export ban will remain in place until domestic supplies meet food security needs. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) chairman and managing director, Ashok K Meena, stated at a press conference that wheat production has not been affected by unseasonal rains and that the total wheat output is expected to reach a record 112 million tonnes this year. In addition, he reported that the government has initiated procurement of fresh wheat crop and purchased 10 727 tonnes at the minimum support price (MSP) in Madhya Pradesh on Monday. As a means of controlling domestic prices, India, the world's second-largest wheat producer, implemented an immediate ban on wheat exports in May 2022. Read more in the linked article, first published on tribuneindia.com.

Avocado markets worldwide witness various developments as the Netherlands prepare to receive large volumes from Peru, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, and Colombia. Kenyan avocados have improved significantly in quality, surpassing South Africa in volume. Despite a cost-of-living crisis, the UK sees stable avocado purchases with an increase in arrivals from Peru and South Africa. France and Italy experience supply deficits with higher prices due to insufficient supply and skyrocketing prices for Hass avocados. South Africa's avocado prices have decreased due to oversupply. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza

As the new blueberry harvest approaches, South African farmers are developing new strategies after a difficult year. Despite the industry hitting "rock-bottom" last year, managing director of Rainbow Superfood Tiaan Rossouw is optimistic. Growers are planning to cut costs and think outside the box, resulting in positive changes. Rossouw emphasises a yield-focused approach for the upcoming season and views this time as an opportunity to learn valuable lessons. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza.

Adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, and congestion caused disruptions in port operations this week. Despite minimal delays at the Port of Cape Town, mechanical failures continue to impact productivity. The marine fleet in Durban improved, but Ngqura and Qheberha still share tugs due to repairs. Additionally, national rail lines experienced more cable theft, causing up to four-hour delays. Internationally, French worker strikes increased port congestion, while the situation in China and the US remains unstable. This has resulted in a drop in global container volumes with immediate forecasts predicting a further decline. Read more in the latest BUSA Covid-19 Cargo Movement Update.

After a mostly sunny and warm period in the northern half of the country, cooler temperatures and thundershowers are expected in the next few days. Normal rainfall is predicted for most areas, including the northeast which has been experiencing dry weather. The southern to far eastern regions will receive more widespread and significant rainfall due to upper-air low-pressure systems. More rain is anticipated for the remainder of the month in most of the country, including the winter rainfall region. This is due to the positioning of upper-air lows and cold fronts associated with them. Read more in the latest edition of Cumulus, published by AgriSeker.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.