The European Union (EU) is the second most important market for South Africa's agricultural products, accounting for 27% of the country's total agricultural exports. Despite South Africa transitioning from the Trade Development Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) to the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) to secure continued and improved market access in the EU, a new set of regulations under the EU Green Deal and its Farm to Fork Strategy are set to impose additional compliance costs that will likely negate the benefits of existing preferential trade arrangements. We present a set of challenges, opportunities, and risks that both government and the private sector need to address if South Africa aims to increase agricultural exports to the EU. Read more in the linked article by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo and Tinashe Kapuya, senior programme officer at the Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa in Nairobi.

In the run-up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference — COP26 — co-hosted by the British and Italian governments in Glasgow, Scotland, next month, many large economies faced severe energy shortages that threatened both their energy supply and food security. Their tribulations showed just how complicated managing energy transition would be for many countries, especially those less economically resilient than rich countries. That a major economy like China looks vulnerable in the face of power deficiencies should be a rude awakening for other countries, including South Africa, under pressure from Britain, the US and Europe to decommission their coal resources — or abandon gas — at one fell swoop. Dr Mzukisi Qobo, head of the Wits School of Governance at the University of the Witwatersrand, discusses this subject in the linked article, first published in the Mail & Guardian.

After an unparalleled contraction in 2020, sub-Saharan Africa is set to grow by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. The recovery is supported by rising commodity prices, improving global trade and financial conditions. But this welcomed rebound is relatively modest by global standards, leading to a widening income disparity with developed economies. Seven charts taken from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest Regional Economic Outlook tell the story of the forecast for sub-Saharan Africa. Please click here to peruse.

The dominant message about SA’s agriculture in the past few months has been of a thriving sector, having grown by 13.4% year on year in 2020 and expected to grow a further 7.6% in 2021. The large harvests of 2020 improved farmers’ finances and allowed some to replace old machinery. Tractor and combine harvester sales expanded by double digits in many months after mid-2020. Yet, this is not a complete picture of the financial conditions in this sector. Rising input costs — higher feed prices for livestock and poultry and higher fuel, fertilizer and agrochemical costs for those in field crops and horticulture — are worth highlighting. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this subject in the linked article, written for and first published in Business Day.

We have long held an optimistic view about the 2021/22 production season. The robust tractor sales since the start of the year, prospects of yet another La Niña, and relatively higher commodity prices convinced us that South African farmers would likely maintain an area planting for summer grains and oilseeds of over 4,2 million hectares. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) this afternoon concurs with this view. The CEC indicates that South African farmers intend to plant a total area of 4,34 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds. This is up by 5% increase from the 2020/21 production season. Read more in the linked article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa's consumer food price inflation moderated to 7,0% y/y in September 2021, from 7,4% in the previous month. The products prices underpinning this deceleration include 'bread and cereals', 'meat', 'fish', and 'vegetables'. While we expect consumer food price inflation to continue to slow in the coming months, we no longer think this will be significant. There will likely be upward cost pressures from 'meat' and 'oils and fats' to counter the expected decline in various products such as 'bread and cereals' and 'vegetables'. Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data in the linked article.

The JSE has announced the resignation of Raphael Karuaihe, head of commodities. Raphael will be leaving the JSE for an exciting opportunity in Namibia, where he has been appointed as the CEO of the AgriBank of Namibia. "We will miss Raphael dearly and value his contribution to the JSE, having been with the organisation for almost a decade since 2012. The opportunity ahead is a personally exciting one for Raphael and takes him back home to Namibia, which has been his intention for the future; so in this regard, we are sincerely happy for him." Raphael will remain with the JSE until the end of the year. In the meantime, I will work closely with him and the team to ensure that we manage a smooth leadership transition for the JSE commodities market.

Daily vaccination rates have been improving again, but are still not at the desired rate, and we continue to aim to reach more than 70% of the adult population as quickly as possible. A powerful new initiative that businesses can support, and which will be launching soon, is the “Vax Champs” campaign – designed to educate and empower ordinary citizens with the information they need to encourage their friends, family, colleagues and neighbours to get vaccinated. Vax Champs will give businesses the resources to enlist staff and communities to promote vaccination. We will provide further detail and resources on this initiative in the coming weeks. Finally, the next Vooma Weekend has been confirmed for 12 to14 November – we urge all private vaccination sites to prepare and make appropriate plans so that we can exceed the numbers we saw on the previous one. Read more about these initiatives in the linked B4SA newsletter.

Some people are wondering, why would a vaccinated person care about the vaccination status of another person? Briefly, it’s because vaccines reduce the probability of getting infected, which reduces the probability of a vaccinated person infecting someone else. And, despite vaccination providing excellent protection against severe disease, a small proportion of vaccinated people still require ICU care. Therefore some vaccinated people may have a strong preference to mix primarily with other vaccinated people. But what exactly is the risk of catching Covid from someone who’s unvaccinated? Read more in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

The outcome of the global climate change conference, COP26, and the world’s willingness to take the tough decisions necessary to contain global warming, will have bigger consequences for Africa than for most other continents. It is in Africa that the impact is already most destabilising. And yet the continent’s 54 countries will struggle to make themselves heard. The critical negotiations will, as usual, be between the big economies; the US, EU, China, India. A recent conference jointly hosted by the Royal African Society, International Crisis Group and Africa Confidential on Climate, Conflict and Demography in Africa sought to give African countries a louder voice. It identified five key messages for African governments, some for them to take to COP26, others for them to take home and act on themselves. Read more in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

Trade and production of blueberries are expanding globally as product development boosts their profile in form and function. Hailed for their flavor, versatility, and health benefits, blueberry consumption has expanded beyond fresh, ranging from pureed to powdered forms. Blueberries are also being used as ingredients and additives in foods and beverages. These new uses and forms of blueberries are combined with increasing fresh consumption to drive up production worldwide. Global production and trade have seen the most dramatic growth between 2010 and 2019, driven ever higher by mounting consumer demand. Read more in the linked USDA report on this topic.

Please find more information about the course ‘Rural Entrepreneurship – Africa (RE)’ in the linked flyer. This course is offered by Wageningen Centre for Development Innovation (Wageningen CDI). The RE course focuses on inclusive (fresh) food value chain development and on improved food and nutrition security. This dual objective can be achieved by an improved performance of local (fresh) food value chains. The reasoning is shown in the, slightly outdated, video clip ‘MA4FS’. The curriculum of the RE course is tailored to a more in-depth analysis of the dynamics of a number of local (fresh) food value chains and the performance analysis of small and medium agri-processors operating in these value chains. It addresses a wide range of relevant subjects in this context. In addition, as is shown in the video clip, it contributes to inclusive market development by addressing poverty and through community development and youth engagement initiatives.

The South African kiwifruit industry could experience impressive expansion, as with blueberries, which were stagnant for a long time and expanded greatly as global demand spurred SA farmers to increase their production. This is the view of leading local kiwifruit experts who participated in PMA Southern Africa's live broadcast in partnership with Beanstalk.Global on 21 October. The panel included Louw Pienaar from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Pieter de Jongh from Fresh World, Flippie Viljoen from Top Fruit, Malcolm Deacon from Gold Tree Farms, and Athol Currie from The Fruit Farm Group South Africa (TFFGSA). "Globally, the kiwifruit industry has seen a significant growth considering imports and price increases over time. It is expected that the growing trend will continue over the next few years," said Louw Pienaar of BFAP. Read more in the linked PMA media statement.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

Read more about the latest developments and news in the pork industry in the South African Pork Producers' Organisation (SAPPO) newsletter, SAPPO Weekly Update.