2020 marked some of the largest reductions in trade and output volumes since World War II. Focusing on the Covid-19 pandemic and using the latest monthly and quarterly data on international trade of selected countries and products, the OECD documents key shifts in geographical direction and product composition of international trade in 2020. Trade in services declined by more than twice as much as trade in goods and its recovery has also been slower. While some international supply chains came under pressure in the early months of the pandemic, the data also show that supply chains were instrumental in the resumption of economic activity. The full trade policy paper is linked here.

Real economic activity in South Africa expanded for a fourth consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2021. Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated marginally from a revised 1.0% (4.2% annualised) in the first quarter of 2021 to 1.2% (4.7% annualised) in the second quarter, despite the third wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) infections. However, the seasonally adjusted level of real output in the second quarter of 2021 was still lower than the level in the first quarter of 2020 at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Growth in the real gross value added (GVA) by the primary sector accelerated further in the second quarter of 2021, even though real mining output increased at a slower pace. The real GVA by the agricultural sector increased at a brisk pace in the second quarter of 2021 after contracting in the first quarter. Agricultural output was boosted by the increased production of field crops, with the most recent commercial maize crop estimate for the 2020/21 season being 6.6% more than the final crop for the 2019/20 season. The production of horticultural and animal products also increased in the second quarter of 2021. Please click here to read the full Quarterly Bulletin published by the South African Reserve Bank.

The extent of market concentration in South Africa’s agriculture sector is a perennial topic for debate, no doubt because of the complexity of the country’s food system, the dangers of generalisation, and some debilitating data problems. Some analysts believe the sector is already overly concentrated, some see increasing concentration, and some think there is no real problem with how markets are functioning. Since the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy has been researching the sector for two decades, the authors of the linked article, first published in Business Day, write this article to add to the debate. In the process Louw Pienaar, Prof. Ferdi Meyer and Prof. Nick Vink emphasise that the main objective of agricultural policy must be to get rid of the dualism that pervades the sector. Removing structural barriers that limit competition is an integral part of this process. However, this must take into account the complexities of the sector.

On 23 September the International Bar Association’s Agricultural Law Section hosted the first International Law Conference in cooperation with the Ukrainian Bar Association. During the Biotech session, Dr Lukeshni Chetty, general manager of SANSOR, presented on the regulation of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Whilst GMOs are often a divisive topic in international debates, Dr Chetty brought valuable perspective and balance to the debate. Whilst acknowledging that GMOs should be regulated, the GMOs have dramatically improved food security in resource-poor countries, reduced the reliance on agro-chemicals and improved yields. Dr Chetty’s presentation can be viewed by following this link to a recording of the conference. 

Agbiz has received a letter from Minister Thoko Didiza requesting Agbiz and its members to submit their BBBEE certificates to the Charter Council so that the council can prepare its reports on the status of transformation in the sector. In response, Agbiz clarified that:

Nevertheless, we wanted to share the minister's letter with members in the event that members falling within the scope of the council wish to submit their certificates at their own discretion. The department has created an online IT portal to facilitate the submission of certificates or affidavits. The portal can be accessed by following this link: AgriBEE Application (daff.gov.za). Members have previously reported challenges with the IT portal. If these challenges still persist, we kindly ask you to report the date of access and the challenges experienced by members to theo@agbiz.co.za so that these issues can be relayed to the BBBEE secretariat at the department. The minister's letter is linked here.

We have had a fair share of depressing news from various sectors of the economy, but the light that agriculture presents deserves some attention. There are favourable economic conditions in this sector, and these are clear from recent data releases on the gross value added, sentiment indicators, and farm machinery expenditure. First, after contracting 1% quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2021, the agricultural gross value added rebounded 6.2% in the second quarter. This improvement is supported by increased production of field crops, horticulture and relatively better production conditions within the livestock subsector. In the linked article, written for and first published in The Herald, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this subject.

Views on the 2021/22 global and domestic agricultural production forecasts are mixed, but the central global theme is that the 2021/22 season seems set to show recovery across all major grains and oilseeds. In its monthly release on 23 September, the International Grains Council (IGC) placed its 2021/22 global grains and oilseeds production estimate at 2.29-billion tonnes, up 4% from the previous season. The expected recovery in maize, wheat, rice and soybean production is the forecast's primary driver. Still, rising consumption from the animal-feed industry and general industrial use means that the 2021/22 global grains and oilseeds stocks could remain tight at 599 million tonnes, roughly unchanged from the previous season's level of 598-million tonnes. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this subject in the linked article.

Stakeholders in the grain and oilseed sector gathered virtually for the Agbiz Grain Symposium, which was hosted from 21 to 23 September. The theme of this year’s symposium was "The grain-handling and storage sector beyond 2021". Some of the key speakers included Prof. Johann Kirsten, Ted Blom, Dr John Purchase, Prof Ferdi Meyer, Wandile Sihlobo, and Arlan Suderman. The theme was sub-divided over the four mornings of the symposium.

In a broad effort to escalate the country’s vaccination programme, the president officially launched the first Vooma Vaccination Weekend earlier this week, which is being rolled out on Friday and Saturday, 1 to 2 October. In addition to public vaccination sites, about 1 000 private vaccination sites will be open on Friday and more than 550 sites will open specially on Saturday. The goal is to vaccinate 500 000 people over this coming weekend, and the ultimate objective is to vaccinate 70% of all adults by the end of the year, and before the onset of the fourth wave. By doing so, we will be able to save 20 000 lives. More information on how your business can support the Vooma Vaccination Weekend is available in the linked document.

Global food prices shot up nearly 33% in September 2021 compared with the same period the year before. That’s according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)‘s monthly Food Price Index, which also found that global prices have risen by more than 3% since July, reaching levels not seen since 2011. The Food Price Index is designed to capture the combined outcome of changes in a range of food commodities, including vegetable oils, cereals, meat and sugar, and compare them month to month. It converts actual prices to an index, relative to average price levels between 2002 and 2004. This is the standard source for tracking food prices – nominal prices, as they’re known, which means they’re not adjusted for inflation. Please click here to read the full article, first published on The Conversation.

The FAO assesses that globally 44 countries, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, and two in Latin America and the Caribbean, are in need of external assistance for food. Critical areas of concern are Afghanistan and the Tigray Region in Ethiopia, where conflict situations have severely worsened the already fragile food insecurity conditions, and in Haiti and southern Madagascar due to natural disasters and weather shocks. At the global level, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic continues to undermine food security. Read more in the linked FAO report - Crop Prospects and Food Situation.

A report published by the FAO - Cereal supply and demand balances for sub-Saharan African countries - contains a subset of CCBS data and presents updated cereal supply and demand balances for all sub-Saharan African countries. It complements the information of the FAO/GIEWS Crop Prospects and Food Situation report and is published four times a year with the same schedule. This report is based on information available as of August 2021. Please click here to peruse.

The cows kept by small-scale farmers in Africa are notoriously unproductive. The average dairy cow, for example, produces about 540 litres of milk per lactation. By contrast, dairy cows in North America that belong to commercial or intensive farmers can produce up to 10 479 litres of milk per lactation. One of the main differences between the two animals lies in the quality of their feeds and forage. Simply put, the more nutritious cows’ diets are, the more and better quality milk they produce. And small-scale farms – of which there are about 33 million in Africa, contributing up to 70% of the continent’s food supply – usually cannot afford more nutritious feed. Brachiaria – the genus name of Urochloa – consists of about 100 documented species of grass of which seven species used as fodder plants are of African origin. This grass may hold the key to improving milk yields from cows kept by small-scale farmers. Why is this an important goal? Please click here to read the full article, first published on The Conversation.

The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) announced on 30 September that one of its African swine fever (ASF) vaccine candidates has been shown to prevent and effectively protect both European and Asian bred swine against the current circulating Asian strain of the virus. Newly published USDA research, as highlighted in the journal Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, shows that ARS scientists have developed a vaccine candidate with the ability to be commercially produced while still maintaining its vaccine efficacy against Asian ASF strains when tested in both European and Asian breeds of swine. The findings also show that a commercial partner can replicate experimental level results and prevent the spread of the virus. Read more in the linked article, first published on Feedstuffs.

The Animal Feed Manufacturers' Association (AFMA) introduced a new affiliate membership category at its 74th Annual General Meeting held on Friday, 3 September 2021. The new affiliate member category aims to provide an opportunity for registered companies that do not manufacture or trade in animal feed products but are providing a service to the feed industry to be affiliated with AFMA. These businesses include consultation services in nutrition, manufacturing, or IT systems, analytical services (laboratory), manufacturing equipment services, and other related industry associations or non-profit organisations (NPOs) that are reaching out to partner strategically with AFMA. Please click here for the AFMA media statement.

Hortgro News contains all the recent relevant news and developments. Please click here for the latest edition.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

Read more about the latest developments and news in the pork industry in the South African Pork Producers' Organisation's (SAPPO) newsletter, SAPPO Weekly Update.