Lessons from nine wars since the early 1970s, and the Brexit vote, show that global foreign direct investment inflows generally decline during the year of the war and the year after. South Africa, having embarked on an investment drive since 2018, faces a tough job making the country more investor friendly and marketing it to the rest of the world given the Covid-19 pandemic and most recently the Russia-Ukraine war. Thus, policymakers need to be more aggressive in implementing structural economic reforms alongside public efforts to demonstrate progress, to achieve foreign direct investment targets. In the linked article, first published on Econ3x3, Isaah Mhlanga, executive chief economist at Alexander Forbes, explores this subject.

The sea carries more than 80 per cent of the world’s traded goods, most of which sail inside 40-foot-long steel containers stacked by the thousands atop some of the largest vessels ever built. The shock of the pandemic underscored just how crucial the maritime container trade is to the global economy. From Shanghai to Rotterdam to Los Angeles, the coronavirus upended supply chains. Ports lacked workers who were homesick. Truck drivers and ship crews couldn’t cross borders because of public health restrictions. Pent-up demand from huge stimulus programs during extended lockdowns overwhelmed the capacity of supply chains. Besides causing delays in getting goods to customers, the cost of getting them there surged. Read more in the linked IMF blog post.

The establishment of a Land Court, for which legislation is currently completed in Parliament is one of the steps with which the government hopes to accelerate the snail's pace of land reform. Agbiz made a presentation on its submission on the Land Court Bill to the parliamentary committee on justice and correctional services on 1 March 2022. In the linked article, written for and first published in Landbouweek, Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff and Agbiz head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby discuss this subject.

Livestock farming is one of the most strategic subsectors in SA agriculture. Its value is not only derived from directly accounting for roughly half of the agriculture gross value added, an estimated 48%, but also through its interlinkages with the grains and oilseeds sector. The livestock subsector uses about 53% of the 11.5-million tonnes of maize that is consumed in SA each year. The industry also accounts for a significant consumption share of soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum and wheat. The success and growth of livestock is therefore also beneficial to these commodities and other value chain businesses. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this subject in the linked article, written for and first published in Business Day.

On 6 April, South Africa's petrol (95 ULP inland) and diesel (0.05% wholesale inland) prices will likely increase by R1,84 and R2,99 cents per litre, respectively. These increases will put the retail price of petrol at a record R23,44 per litre from the current level of R21,60 per litre. Simultaneously, the wholesale diesel price will be R22,47 per litre from R19,48 in March 2022. The underpinning driver of the fuel price increase is the rising Brent crude oil price on the back of the current geopolitics, disruption in oil production in the Middle East and supply constraints that existed before the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, amongst other factors. Read more in the linked article by Wandile Sihlobo.

This week, we received further confirmation that South Africa's summer crop is not as bad as some might have feared at the start of the 2021/22 production season when heavy rains threatened the yields. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee showed overall improvements in most crops production estimates from the February figures. For example, the maize harvest was lifted by 1% from the February estimate to 14,7 million tonnes (down 10% y/y). This is a decent harvest, well above the 10-year average of 12,8 million tonnes and annual maize consumption of 11,8 million tonnes. About 7,6 million tonnes is white maize and 7,1 million tonnes is yellow maize. Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data in the linked article.

Statistics South Africa reminds us this morning of the excellent agricultural season we are leaving behind in 2021 when the primary agriculture gross value added expanded by 8,3% y/y (following a year of solid growth of 13,4% y/y). The agency released the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data for Q4, 2021, which showed a similar positive reading of a 7,1% y/y increase in primary agriculture jobs to 868 000, which is well above the long-term agricultural employment of 780 000. The increased activity on the farms in the last quarter of the year and generally improved financial conditions following excellent harvests were at the core of these robust employment conditions in the sector. In the linked article, Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data released by Statistics SA.

The export of agricultural products such as wine, maize and citrus is some of the few resources that still contribute positively to growth in the South African economy – and the grain value chain plays an integral role in this. "South African agricultural producers' record exports during last year exceeded the import value of agricultural products and food. Food and beverages worth R177,8 billion were exported in 2021. This is 5,2% more than in 2020, which means that goods worth R75,4 billion more were exported than imported,” said Mr Hein Rehr, president of the Grain Handling Organisation of Southern Africa (GOSA), at the organisation's recent symposium in Mossel Bay. Agbiz Grain general manager Wessel Lemmer, was also one of the speakers at the symposium. Please click here for more information. In an interview with Pretoria FM, Wessel Lemmer explained why the costs involved in grain storage should receive more attention and gave more information on the Grain Cost Index developed in collaboration with the Bureau for Economic Research (BER). Please click here to listen to the interview.

In an interview with Pretoria FM Wessel Lemmer elaborated on this season’s sunflower seed harvest in South Africa. He also touched on the influence of the Russian-Ukraine war on the supply of vegetable oils in the world market, as well as on the vegetable oil market in South Africa. Please click here to listen to the interview.

Agbiz is delighted to announce that Wolfe Braude will be joining the Agbiz team from April 2022 as manager of the Agbiz Fruit Desk, a joint initiative between Agbiz and Fruit SA. The fruit desk is funded jointly by the South African Table Grape Industry (SATI), Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA), Fresh Produce Exporters’ Forum (FPEF), and Hortgro. “We are excited to welcome Wolfe to our team at Agbiz. He brings with him expertise and experience on, amongst others, trade and agricultural policy and international governance,” says Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff. “The Fruit Desk is an important resource for Fruit SA, and we look forward to benefiting from Wolfe’s expertise to ensure that our industry continues to grow and thrive,” says Fhumulani Ratshitanga, Fruit SA CEO. “On behalf of Fruit SA, I also wish him success in his role.” Read more in the linked Agbiz media statement.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favourable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season. However, the availability and cost of production inputs, especially fertilizer, are discouraging a more bullish production outlook. The cost of farming inputs more than doubled in the past year, increasing the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry. As a result, the Pretoria Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in the marketing year (MY) 2022/23, while the wheat area will increase by a modest 10 per cent. However, South Africa should maintain its status as a net exporter of corn in MY 2022/23 with exports of around 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT), while wheat and wheat products imports should remain at 1.7 MMT. South Africa’s rice imports are expected to increase by three per cent to 1.1 MMT on a marginal growth in demand. Read more in the linked USDA report.

In early February 2022, the World Food Programme announced that 13 million people in the Horn of Africa were facing severe hunger as drought gripped the region. Similar concerns have been raised for several countries in the West African Sahel this year. Make no mistake about it, drought is creating hardship for farmers and herders in these areas. For instance, there have been three consecutive failed rainy seasons in the Horn of Africa. However, blaming nature for hunger is partial at best, and disingenuous at worst, because it obfuscates deeper structural problems and more complex explanations, not to mention solutions. Read more in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

Every few years, it is devastating to watch the same tragedy: a weather cycle that brings debilitating drought and hunger to East Africa, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. The weather cycle responsible for these episodes is a climate-change-enhanced “La Niña”. La Niña is driven by the cooling of ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific sea, causing dry spells in eastern Africa. Human-induced warming in the western Pacific ocean is making things worse. Global emissions have resulted in the rapid warming of the west Pacific, resulting in more rain around Indonesia and concerning but predictable rainfall deficits in arid, food-insecure eastern Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Read more in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

The South African Milk Processors' Organisation (SAMPRO) has compiled a report citing trends in unprocessed milk purchases from 2008 to 2022. The report forms part of the Industry Information Project of SAMPRO. The purpose of the project is to make market signals available to members and other interested parties, which is a prerequisite for effective competition, as envisaged by the Competition Act. Please click here to peruse.

While autumn conditions continue, the position of rain-producing systems during the next few days will be such that large areas of the country should receive below-normal rainfall. The northeastern parts should however receive normal to above-normal rainfall, with widespread thundershowers expected early this weekend. The central to western parts should be relatively dry during the next few days. Following the weekend, it should become warmer with little in the way of rainfall over most areas while northerly to northwesterly winds will dominate the interior as a cold front approaches the winter rainfall region early next week. While the cold front is expected to result in cooler conditions and rain over the winter rainfall region according to current forecasts, it is not at this stage expected to move deep into the interior. With the warmer conditions ahead, there is currently no indication of early or severe frost during the next few days. The warmer conditions during the next few days over the summer rainfall region will be conducive to crop production over the summer-grain-production areas. Read more in the latest edition of Cumulus, published by AgriSeker.

As of 1 January 2022, the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (SACOTA) is a fully independent association catering for its trading members’ needs. Please click here for the latest edition the SACOTA Newsletter.

Westfalia Fruit is paying tribute to the spirit of its founder with a range of environmental initiatives designed to grow the highest-quality avocados in harmony with our planet and its people. Regarded as the father of modern avocado production, Dr Hans Merensky was ahead of his time in adopting a series of techniques designed to conserve water, protect and rejuvenate soils, and offer sustainable livelihoods to the people who farmed his land and beyond. Working on the Westfalia Estate in South Africa up until his death in 1952, Dr Merensky made it both his life’s mission and legacy to establish a way of working that brings substantial positive benefits to both the natural environment and those that relied upon it to live. Today, Westfalia has developed new ways of growing that are both protecting precious water resources and producing strong and healthy avocado trees that will bear fruit and nourish the land for many decades to come. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza.

An industry leader from the Eastern Cape has been elected chairman of the Citrus Growers Association. The citrus industry contributes billions to South African foreign exchange earnings and employs hundreds of thousands of people. Hannes de Waal, an experienced marketer and company leader in the Eastern Cape, was elected as the new chairman of the Citrus Growers Association (CGA) on Friday, 25 March. He will be leading the board of this industry body that serves an industry that earns South Africa billions in export revenue for a two-year term. De Waal has more than 26 years of experience in the industry. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza.

BerriesZA is pleased to announce the appointment of Brent Walsh as CEO of BerriesZA. This appointment reflects the journey that BerriesZA has embarked on and the commitment to securing a strong future for berry producers and participants across the berry value chain. Brent is a newcomer to the wider fruit industry but has been a committed berry eater for many years! Brent brings a wealth of managerial, financial and governance experience with him that he has built up in his career in the NPC sector. As such he has broad experience in stakeholder engagement and management to facilitate building relations with all contributors across the extensive berry industry. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza.

Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in his weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.