After falling from 50 to 43 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2021. The outcome could easily have been better were it not for a variety of special factors that kept sentiment subdued. The fieldwork for the fourth quarter survey took place during the first two weeks of November (27 October to 15 November). It covered 1 300 senior executives in the building, manufacturing, retail as well as wholesale and motor trade sectors. Please click here for the BER media statement.

The push to allow third-party rail freight operators onto South Africa’s rail network gained momentum this week with an endorsement from Business Unity South Africa (BUSA). BUSA is the formally recognised representative of business at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC). BUSA CEO, Cas Coovadia stated: “Third-party access to our national rail network is one of the several structural reforms that business has advocated, and which we believe will contribute to strengthening our logistics network. This is critical in enabling a sustained economic recovery as we seek to emerge from the pandemic-induced economic shock.” Read more in the linked BUSA media statement.

Amidst the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, South Africa has maintained a steady 57.8/100 in the 10th annual Global Food Security Index (GFSI); a benchmarking tool developed by Economist Impact and supported by leading agricultural company, Corteva Agriscience. The GSFI is constructed from 58 unique indicators that examine the underlying drivers and causes of food security across both developed and developing countries. Findings consider four key categories, namely affordability, availability, quality and safety and natural resources and resilience. Despite this demonstration of stability, South Africa’s global ranking fell slightly from 69 in the 2020 iteration of the Index down to 70, out of the 113 countries assessed. Read more in the linked media statement.

Agbiz chief economist, Wandile Sihlobo, participated this week in a panel discussion organised by the Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA). The discussion is based on two papers: "Building back fairer from the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa: Some first step reforms in an era of fiscal constraints", by Channing Arndt, Robert J. Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Michael Sachs and Dirk van Seventer and "Building a competitive and dynamic green industrial sector in South Africa" by Tendai Gwatidzo and Witness Simbanegavi. While the former focuses on skills, food systems, nutrition and health, and urban structure, the latter focuses on the importance of green energy for a sustainable future. Together, these papers explore how we can use our existing infrastructure and fiscal environment to become more efficient in the short run and work towards a green sustainable economy in the long run. Looking forward requires an honest reflection of the learnings from the past, and a concerted effort to prioritise green energy. The recording of the session is available here.

In a year of large crop harvests following good rainfall, a few people probably thought consumer food price inflation would accelerate as we have witnessed in the past 10 months, averaging 6,6% y/y (compared with 4,5% y/y in 2020). But the large crop harvests in South Africa contributed less towards price determination in global food prices compared to production constraints in South America, combined with rising demand for oilseeds and grains in China. South America has poor crop harvests, especially for maize, because of the La Niña weather phenomenon that typically leads to below-average rainfall (In Southern Africa La Niña leads to above-average rainfall). These poor harvests, combined with the rising demand in China, provided upward pressure on global grain and oilseed prices. The lingering shipping container shortage and an associated rise in shipping costs for much of the year also supported prices. Wandile Sihlobo discusses this subject in the linked article.

Black farmers produce between 5 and 10 per cent of total agricultural output in South Africa (NAMC 2019), a ratio that has not changed much for two generations despite evidence that it was higher in the early twentieth century (Bundy 1979; Simkins 1981; OECD 2006). Part I of this handbook shows how colonial rule, the segregationist era, and later apartheid provided the foundation for economic dualism in agriculture that excluded most black South Africans from access to land ownership, to agricultural support services, and to economic opportunities in South Africa’s rural areas. This chapter provides a more recent review of the South African agricultural sector from the transition years in the early 1990s to the current challenges of 2020. The discussion starts with an inventory of the natural resource base with which farmers have to work, then addresses the political economy of the sector, various aspects of the performance of the commercial agricultural sector, and finally the growth prospects for the sector against the targets set in the National Development Plan. The handbook can be accessed here. The preview of the chapter is accessible here.

BUSA, which convenes Business for South Africa (B4SA), recently announced that it will be applying for a declaratory order on mandatory vaccinations. We have spoken to the BUSA CEO, Cas Coovadia, for an update on this process. We are informed that BUSA is consulting with its legal team, including a senior counsel. BUSA and its legal adviser, Halton Cheadle, also met with representatives from several legal firms to be briefed on their clients’ experience in applying some form of mandatory vaccination policy. The representatives from these legal firms will coordinate inputs with the BUSA legal adviser, including considering any live cases by any of their clients. The legal team will then advise on the most appropriate and expeditious way to get legal clarity on mandatory vaccinations, of which a declaratory order will be a consideration. Read more in the latest B4SA newsletter linked here.

It’s being called the “shadow pandemic”—an increase in physical, sexual and emotional abuse of women is taking place amid the lockdowns and societal turmoil caused by the global health crisis. The evidence is only growing. In Nigeria, the number of reported cases of gender violence linked to lockdowns increased by more than 130 per cent. In Croatia, reported rapes increased by 228 per cent during the first five months of 2020 compared to 2019. For many women around the world, no place is more unsafe than their own homes. As the world recognizes International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, it has become clear that the pandemic has made this violence worse. Read more in the linked IMF blog post.

Sub-Saharan Africa is losing the race to vaccinate its population against Covid-19. As of November 15, only about 4 per cent of the population in sub-Saharan Africa has been fully vaccinated, up from merely 1 per cent three months ago. It took 27 and 56 days to achieve the same milestone in advanced economies and other emerging markets and developing economies, respectively. The World Health Organization’s target of vaccinating 10 per cent of the population by the end of September was reached by only five sub-Saharan African countries. Only a handful of countries in the region are expected to reach a target set by the IMF, World Health Organization, World Trade Organization and World Bank to vaccinate 40 per cent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021. Read more in the linked IMF blog post.

Reaching net-zero will require significant global efforts to harness technology and boost innovation. The OECD's new joint report with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC), World Corporate Top R&D Investors: Paving the Way to Climate Neutrality, shows that the world’s 2000 top R&D investors make a significant contribution to global climate-related innovation and associated goods and services, owning 70% of climate change mitigation or adaptation patents and more than 10% of global climate-related trademarks. This report sheds light on the innovative activities of top 2000 R&D investors worldwide, and the way they contribute to shaping the development of future technologies, by looking at their Intellectual Property (IP) portfolios. The fourth edition focuses on the role that top R&D investors play in the development and commercialisation of new climate change mitigation or adaptation technologies. It proposes for the first time an analysis of climate-related trademarks, which complement patent data on climate-related technologies. The report is the result of the long-lasting collaboration between the Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) of the OECD and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (EC-JRC). You can download the report here.

Large parts of the summer-grain production region experienced relatively favourable conditions so far this summer. Late-winter to early summer was characterised by wetter than normal conditions over the western to the southern interior, traditionally a late-summer rainfall region. The northeastern parts of the summer rainfall region, where rainfall tends to reach a maximum earlier in the summer, experienced relatively dry conditions, but a few rainfall events resulted in favourable planting conditions into Mpumalanga. Recently, more widespread rainfall also spread into the northeastern half of South Africa. Going forward, relatively wet conditions are expected to occur, according to medium-term outlooks, over large parts as we approach December. Because seasonal forecast systems consider sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as a major factor to predict coming conditions, it is worthwhile to take note of current SST anomalies. Please click here for the Cumulus Seasonal Outlook published by AgriSeker.

Over the nine years that Lodestar has been conducting market research into avocado buying behaviour on behalf of the South African Avocado Growers’ Association, they have seen a significant shift in the way South African consumers view avocados, Sylvia Jones of Lodestar told attendees at the 2021 Subtrop marketing symposium. In 2012 only 36% of respondents called it a planned purchase (as opposed to an impulse buy), but in the latest round of focus groups, telephone and online surveys (including through the ‘I love avocados’ social media campaign, put together by Protactic Strategic Communications), 68% said they had ‘avocados’ on the list when they went shopping for fruit and vegetables (which was about once a week). Read more in the linked article first published on FreshPlaza.

The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) has been made aware by the Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP) regarding the shortage and unavailability of the OBP African horse sickness (AHS) vaccine. The current unavailability of AHS vaccine at this time will have implications with regards to the management of vaccination protocols, and we are aware that it may have been impossible for some horses to be vaccinated as required within the time period prior to 31 October. The department welcomes the assurance given by OBP that contingency plans are being implemented and closely monitored to ensure that production outputs meet the demand and the assurance to the equine industry that all efforts are being made to ensure that the vaccine is available early in December 2021. Read more in the linked DALRRD media statement.

In celebration of a number of Agbiz members who celebrated their 100 years of existence, an annual Agbiz Centenary Bursary Fund was established. The primary objective of the bursary is to promote master's, or PhD level research in agribusiness related fields and Agbiz certainly is proud to be associated with and supporting the set research of Agbiz Centenary Bursary holders. The annual bursary of R39 000 is available to a South African student registered for a master’s or PhD degree in either agricultural economics or agribusiness management-related fields, at any recognised South African university in 2022. Terms and conditions apply. Applications for the 2022 bursary, complete with a completed application form and the required documentation, should reach Agbiz via email or mail before 5 December 2021. Please click here for more information.

Welcome to the latest edition of Harvest SA. In the aftermath of the South African municipal elections, many people are scratching their heads asking themselves what went wrong, while others celebrate the successful outcomes of well-laid plans. If there is any lesson to be drawn from these historical events, it's that complacency is more of a luxury than ever today. Other highlights include expert analyses of agricultural prospects going forward, best practices in crop nutrition by industry leaders, tips to cut costs through smart fertilizer usage, research into more cost-effective pumps, and more. Please click here to peruse.

South Africa’s wine industry is as ready as ever to rebuild, with a focused plan, strategic actions and revised targets towards 2025 and beyond. This according to the respective wine industry organisations during a two-day engagement with producers, wineries and other stakeholders in Worcester and Stellenbosch on 3 and 4 November 2021. “Despite the setbacks brought on by Covid-19 over the past nearly two years, we are committed to not only bouncing back to where we were before the pandemic hit, but bouncing forward to achieve our vision of a robust, adaptable and competitive South African wine and brandy industry,” says Vinpro MD Rico Basson. The industry set specific targets in 2015 to realise this vision by 2025 through its Wine Industry Strategic Exercise (WISE) and has since revised its strategy and targets somewhat to the current realities. “The main strategic outcomes include boosting exports and local sales, promoting inclusive growth and responsible consumption, and striving for sustainability in all facets of business,” Rico says. Read more in the linked Vinpro article.

The winners of the fourth annual Absa Business Day Development Awards have been announced, with Tiger Brands claiming the coveted title of Overall Winner. The annual awards programme recognises companies that are making significant strides in terms of their supplier development initiatives by acknowledging those who go beyond the scorecard, fostering learning, showcasing best practice and encouraging intersectoral collaboration to create scale and impact. The 2021 awards were presented in partnership with Arena Holdings, Fetola and Cold Press Media, with winners announced at a hybrid event held at The Empire Conference and Events Venue in Johannesburg on Thursday, 18 November 2021. Please click here to read more.

As Bayer’s digital farming arm, The Climate Corporation, has made it their mission to create digital tools that will help the world’s farmers sustainably increase their productivity. To ensure that our farmers get expanded support to optimise their FieldView™ experience and access to appropriate equipment technology, Bayer and Climate FieldView South Africa have partnered with Cerealis Precision. Cerealis Precision is a key player in precision farming technologies and equipment and is, therefore, a well-suited partner for Climate FieldView™, through providing farmers with excellent innovations that can help them grow sustainably, optimise yields, and make informed decisions for future planting and harvesting seasons. Read more in the linked Bayer media statement.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

Read more about the latest developments and news in the pork industry in the South African Pork Producers' Organisation (SAPPO) newsletter, SAPPO Weekly Update.