Combatting the climate crisis requires us to rapidly transform the systems that propel our economy, including power generation, buildings, industry, transport, land use, and agriculture - as well as the immediate scale-up of technological carbon removal. But by how much? And how can decision-makers unlock the transformational change that is required? A newly released report - The State of Climate Action 2021 - identifies 40 indicators across key sectors that must transform to address the climate crisis and assesses how current trends will impact how much work remains to be done by 2030 and 2050 to deliver a zero-carbon world in time. It also outlines the required shifts in supportive policies, innovations, strong institutions, leadership and social norms to unlock change. For example, wind and solar power have experienced exponential growth over the past two decades. The encouraging news is that we are seeing a number of bright spots in climate change mitigation. At the same time, for many other transformations, action is incremental at best and headed in the wrong direction altogether at worst. In fact, none of the 40 indicators this report assesses is on track to reach our 2030 targets. For instance, to meet targets that align with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius the world must - among other actions - phase out unabated coal electricity generation five times faster than current trends, accelerate the increase of annual gross tree cover gain three times faster and boost crop productivity nearly two times faster. Published under the Systems Change Lab, this report is a joint effort between the High-Level Climate Champions, Climate ActionTracker, ClimateWorks Foundation, the Bezos Earth Fund, and World Resources Institute. Please click here to peruse the report.

The biggest vote in the election was the stay-away vote. Some 26 million people were registered, but only about 46% chose to go out and vote. This is as powerful a political statement as you can get. Fikile Mbalula, Head of Elections for the African National Congress (ANC), appropriately described it as ‘a warning shot’ for the ruling party. Many South Africans chose not to vote against the ANC; instead, they withheld their vote from it. The impact of this stay-away vote is that the ANC is expected to end up with about 46% of the vote, compared with 54% in the previous local government elections held in 2016, and 62% in 2011. The decline over 10 years is enormous. Shifts of this magnitude do not just come and go. In 2016, the ANC also lost considerable ground. Most notably, it lost control of four major metros: Johannesburg, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekhuruleni. This was a big shock to the ANC system, happening as it did when then-President Jacob Zuma boasted the ANC would rule ‘until Jesus comes’. The 2016 elections shattered that arrogance. Those results also helped pave the way for a sea change (or ‘self-correction’) in the ANC, manifesting in the 2017 election of Cyril Ramaphosa as president at Nasrec. Read more in the linked article by political and trend analyst JP Landman.

When it comes to fiscal policy the path of virtue does not always run smoothly. Yet finance minister Enoch Godongwana will have a better story to tell in his forthcoming medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS), or “mini budget”, than his predecessor, Tito Mboweni, had in the (main) February budget. Indeed, this is a windfall MTBPS for Godongwana. A global commodity-related tax revenue boost, the opening up of the economy by moving to lockdown level 1 and technical adjustments to the national accounts have together created the impression of a somewhat healthier and more manageable fiscal situation. Prof. Raymond Parson of the North-West University Business School shares his views in the linked article, first published in Business Day.

On Tuesday, the National Business Initiative gave stakeholders a ‘sneak-peak' into their preliminary findings on the just transition pathways for agriculture, forestry and other land uses. For those who may not be familiar with the term, the ‘just transition’ refers to the process whereby economic sectors within the global economy can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to halt the advance of climate change. With the backdrop of COP 26 currently taking place in Glasgow, there is a growing, global consensus that we need to transition towards a green economy. The ‘just’ element is key as there is an inherent risk that underdeveloped countries may be treated unfairly vis-à-vis developed countries who have the benefit of 150 years of carbon-intensive development. Likewise, not all sectors in the economy have the same mitigation potential and there must be an element of justice for employees working in carbon-intensive industries whose livelihoods may be at risk if appropriate plans are not put in place. Read more in the linked article by Agbiz head of Legal Intelligence Theo Boshoff. Please follow this link for the presentation of key findings

from the NBI Just Transition Pathways project.

Agbiz would like suitably qualified applicants to apply for the position of Manager: Legal Intelligence, commencing on 1 January 2022. The incumbent needs a legal qualification as background but the position differs vastly from legal practice. Agbiz conducts policy advocacy on behalf of its members and requires someone who can convert legal knowledge into legal intelligence by analysing draft policies and legislation to determine their relevance to the sector, the impact it would have on agribusinesses and to formulate counter-proposals and advocate for amendments to draft policy and legislation in line with the organisation’s mandate. Please click here for more information.  

Last week, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast of the 2021/22 winter crops. There were minimal changes from the previous update of the end of

September, with wheat production forecast up by 0,2% to 2,09 million tonnes. Meanwhile,

barley, canola, and oats production forecasts were respectively down by 2%, 3%, and 2%

from the previous forecast to 348 200 tonnes, 190 000 tonnes, and 80 473 tonnes. For wheat, this production estimate is roughly in line with the previous season's crop of 2,12 million tonnes, while for oats and canola, this is the largest crop on record. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data in the linked article.

Most of the national government's agricultural policies and programmes depend on implementation by the provincial governments and municipalities for their success. The policies crafted in Pretoria have to find their way in various local agricultural strategies to materialise. The same goes for organised agriculture structures such as Agbiz. The engagements about multiple issues that constrain agribusinesses can be discussed with government leadership in Pretoria. Still, the execution is typically dependent on the cooperation of the provincial government and various municipalities. This doesn't mean that

the national government is not impactful, quite the opposite. It sets the tone and focus for policy and takes the lead in important programmes such as land reform and blended finance. But on most other policies, the details are often left to the provinces to execute. The levels of administrative efficiencies amongst the provinces are typically displayed through the implementation rate of various programmes. Read more in the linked article by Wandile Sihlobo.

New plant breeding techniques can improve producers' production and profitability, resulting in an increased flow of grain and oilseeds in storage facilities. This will lead to increased volumes and quality of grain and oilseeds. All participants in the grain value chain could benefit from this. This was also the case when GMO technology was adopted in South Africa as a result of legislation on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) over the past 30 years. Agbiz Grain general manager Wessel Lemmer discusses this subject in the linked article, written for and first published in Landbouweekblad.

Two of the world’s top fertiliser producers expect the crop-nutrient price surge will continue. Nutrien Ltd., the world’s largest crop-nutrient supplier, raised its full-year guidance Monday as it forecast strong crop prices will support fertilizer spending. Prices for potash -- a key soil nutrient rich in potassium -- continue to increase in all key markets driven by record demand and strong grower margins, the company said Monday in a statement. Its outlook came just as Mosaic Co., the world’s largest phosphate producer, said in a statement it “expects upward pricing momentum to continue” as 90% of fourth-quarter sales are committed and priced, with some customers requesting commitments as far forward as second quarter of 2022. Please click here to peruse.

South Africa’s agricultural sector is now in another planning phase with the drafting of the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan. This social compact between the government, labour and industry is envisaged to result in practical, actionable reforms to drive inclusive growth and job creation in agricultural value chains. The foundation of this new plan is anchored on inclusive, sustained and profitable participation in South Africa’s agricultural economy. Whenever stakeholders gather to discuss reform at the sector level, import replacement, or localisation of food production, is often first on the agenda. Proponents argue that this boosts local production and results in higher levels of investment, economic growth and job creation in the domestic economy, as opposed to in other countries. A wide range of policy instruments are available to achieve this, but import tariffs and tariff quotas are mostly used. However, there are compelling counterarguments that merit careful consideration. Read more in the linked article, first published in Business Day.

The production of apples, pears and table grapes is forecast to continue its growth in the 2021/22 MY, based on normal weather conditions, new areas coming into production and high yielding varieties. South Africa is self-sufficient and only imports small quantities of deciduous fruits to fulfil niche markets or to satisfy demand during the off-season when supply is limited. Read more in the latest report published by the United States Department of Agriculture that is linked here.

An updated publication - Step-by-Step Export Manual - published by the DALLRD (Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALLRD), was compiled with the assistance of the Fresh Produce Exporters' Forum (FPEF) and is freely available. It will also be available on the FPEF and DALRRD websites. We will also share it with other relevant government departments. Please click here to peruse.

Of the five groups of primary agricultural products covered by a report compiled by the South African Milk Processors’ Organisation (Sampro), the change in the producer price index of milk (which measures the change in the prices of unprocessed milk achieved by unprocessed milk producers), shows that the price index for unprocessed milk is one of three of the five agricultural products of which the price index decreased from August to September 2021, and the decrease is the highest; the third-highest increase in the 12 months up to September 2021; and the second-highest increase in the 11 6 months from January 2012 to September 2021. Please click here to access the report.

The cotton market is riding on several bull variables. World cotton demand is showing signs of recovery and strength with world exports for 2021/22 being revised upwards to 10.2 million tons and world consumption revised upwards to 26 million tons. Higher demand compared to production is expected in 2021/22 to cause ending stocks to decline for the second year in a row to stand at 19.9 million tons, 1.4% lower than the previous season. Read more in the latest Cotton Market Report, published by Cotton SA.

Government should scrap the levy while it finalises a study on its effect on health in SA over the past three years, writes Andrew Russel, chair of the SA Canegrowers Association in an article, first published in Business Day. "In his article, Nzama Mbalati of the Healthy Living Alliance (Heala) expresses sympathy for the plight of cane growers affected by the sugar tax (Sugar tax is working as planned and should be increased, October 10). Yet this sympathy is cold comfort when Mbalati’s entire article is devoted to dismissing the real and devastating consequences of the tax for the industry and the 1-million livelihoods that depend on it." Please click here to peruse.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

Read more about the latest developments and news in the pork industry in the South African Pork Producers' Organisation (SAPPO) newsletter, SAPPO Weekly Update.