Following a notable decline last year on the back of Western Cape drought, South Africa's wheat production could increase by 18% y/y to 1.8 million tonnes in 2018/19 production season. This is on the back of an expansion in area planted and improvement in yield prospects, particularly in the Western Cape province. This means the import requirements in the 2018/19 season could soften to levels around 1.6 million tonnes, from the estimated level of 1.9 million tonnes in the 2017/18 season. Most summer crop production estimates remain unchanged from last month with the exception of sunflower seed and sorghum, which were lifted by 8% and 27% from July 2018 estimates, respectively. Agbiz head of Agribusiness Research, Wandile Sihlobo, provides  more insight.

September 3 is an important date for the global wheat market - thanks to Russia. The country's agricultural ministry will be meeting with grain exporters to discuss the market situation and export plans for the 2018/19 season. The outcome of this meeting will be important, as the government indicated a possibility of curbing wheat exports once they reach 25 million tonnes. This is a way of ensuring that there are sufficient domestic supplies given that Russia's 2018/19 wheat production is expected to decline by 21 percent from last season to 67 million tonnes. This is on the back of unfavourable weather conditions and a reduction in area planted. Click here to read Wandile Sihlobo's linked article.

South African farmers planted 28 800 hectares of sorghum in the 2017/18 production season - the smallest area on record in a dataset starting from 1936/37. This is a disappointing picture, given that sorghum was once seen as key to the development of the biofuel industry in South Africa and, in turn, job creation in rural areas. Wandile Sihlobo, provides  more insight.

The last time Zimbabwe was nearly self-sufficient in wheat production was in 2001, with a harvest of about 325,000t. After nearly two decades, production declined to a mere 20,000t as a consequence of bad policy decisions. The government embarked on an ambitious investment plan in 2017 to revive wheat production. This was a plausible initiative following increasing bread and other wheaten product consumption. This plan entailed production loan schemes for acquiring inputs such as seeds, fertiliser, agrochemicals and irrigation facilities. Disappointingly, there has been no change in wheat area planted and subsequent harvest outcome.  Click here for Wandile Sihlobo's full article.