Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, delivered remarks at the China Development Forum, emphasising the imperative of advancing China's sustainable economic growth. Against the backdrop of global economic challenges, including diverging inflation rates and geopolitical tensions, Georgieva underscored the resilience of the global economy but highlighted the need for fiscal consolidation and transformative reforms. She outlined the potential for China to achieve high-quality growth through pro-market reforms, emphasising the importance of sound macroeconomic fundamentals, domestic consumption, and investment in human capital. Georgieva commended China's progress in AI preparedness and renewable energy deployment while advocating for further advancements in green economy initiatives. She affirmed the IMF's commitment to supporting China's reform agenda and international cooperation efforts, acknowledging China's contributions to strengthening the IMF's financial capacity and addressing debt distress in emerging economies. Georgieva concluded with optimism, envisioning a prosperous future shaped by collaboration and resilience. Click here to read full article. 

African nations, including Niger, Senegal, Ivory Coast, the DRC, and Rwanda, are poised for significant economic expansion in 2024, driven by various factors like hydrocarbon production, infrastructure projects, and mining. Despite challenges such as political instability and climate risks, these countries are expected to bolster their economies through strategic investments and reforms. The Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) underscores the importance of revitalising trade, mobilising domestic resources, and implementing structural reforms to achieve sustainable growth and development amidst global economic uncertainties and social challenges. Click here to read full statement issued by Communications Section Economic Commission for Africa.

South Africa has made commendable progress in containing and closing the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks that have plagued the country since 2021. Currently, only KwaZulu-Natal and Free State have areas with unresolved outbreaks in the previous FMD-free zones. All other outbreaks in the previous FMD-free zone have been resolved and closed with the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). No cases of FMD were reported in Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and Western Cape, meaning that they have remained FMD-free without vaccination. The last outbreaks in the previous FMD-free zones in Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and North West were reported more than a year ago, in November 2022. The outbreaks on affected premises in these provinces were resolved and closed with the WOAH. Click here to read full statement issued by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.

South Africa witnesses significant labour migration from the SADC region, as per the 2023 Migration Profile Report by Statistics South Africa. SADC countries contribute 83.7% of total immigrants, contrasting with declining numbers from the UK and Europe. Employed immigrants in South Africa rose from 6.0% in 2012 to 8.9% in 2022, with major employment sectors including private households, construction, and wholesale/retail trade. Despite challenges, such as unemployment rates fluctuating from 15.6% in 2012 to 18.2% in 2022, labour migration remains pivotal for economic growth. This collaborative migration profile underscores the complexities and opportunities of South Africa's migration landscape, providing insights into socio-economic dynamics and policy implications. For more information, download the full report by statssa.gov.za here.

The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development is assessing the severity of the El-Nino-induced drought and its impact on crop-yields and financial status on farmers. The recent Crop Estimates Committee shows that South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed production could fall by 21% year-on-year to 15,2 million tonnes. This will still be sufficient for domestic needs, but the neighboring countries in the regions have been hit hard and may experience food insecurity. There are also emerging feed challenges for the livestock farmers. Fortunately, the vegetables and fruit supplies are reasonably decent, and prices should be moderate in the near future. The department has also briefed the cabinet about the difficulties presented by the drought and some measures are being considered to mitigate the impact and also ensures business continuity of farmers. Click here to read full statement issued by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.

Opposition parties in Parliament are considering legal measures in response to the approval of the Expropriation Bill. To delve deeper into the effectiveness of the bill for transformation and its implications, we are joined virtually by Dr. Rosalie Kingwill, an Independent Land Governance Researcher focusing on property rights and land administration, and Annelize Crosby, a Legal Intelligence Manager at Agbiz with expertise in legislative tracking. Click here to watch full interview with SABC News.

There have been several attempts since 2008 to replace the 1975 Expropriation Act. The latest attempt was the Expropriation Bill that was tabled in Parliament on 15 October 2020.After a lengthy parliamentary process the Bill was finally passed by Parliament on 27 March 2024. The Select Committee on Transport, Public Service and Administration, Public Works and Infrastructure adopted a number of amendments to the Bill, which amendments were approved by the Portfolio committee on Public Works and Infrastructure. These amendments include a new clause 2(3) which provides for the compulsory acquisition of property directly or indirectly by a third-party beneficiary through an expropriating authority in the public interest. Read full report by Agbiz Head of Legal intelligence, Annelize Crosby here.

We are starting another critical period for South Africa's field crops, this time for winter crops. Farmers in the Western Cape will likely begin to prepare the soil for the 2024/25 winter crop production season by the end of April into May. Other major winter crop-producing provinces, such as Free State, Limpopo and the Northern Cape, will likely start around the end of May. The production of winter crops outside the Western Cape has sizable irrigation support. These regions should benefit from the relatively higher dam levels from the early summer rainfall. In major winter grains such as wheat, nearly half of the production in South Africa is produced under irrigation. The irrigation share in overall wheat production is essential in an environment where drier weather conditions and heat waves are causing significant damage to summer grains and oilseed regions. Admittedly, the weather forecasts for the Western Cape's winter season remain uncertain. We know the El Niño state is expected to end and return to neutral by early winter. Click here to read full article by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo.

Since the reports of El Niño-induced drought and crop losses emerged, there have been rising concerns about a potential surge in South Africa’s consumer food price inflation. There have also been calls for the government to intervene and cushion households from potential food price surges. It remains unclear, however, if such assistance should be through policy instruments or household support in the form of food packages for the indigent. There may even be a temptation to ask whether the government should limit agricultural commodity exports or policy options for price interventions. Such suggestions, while sympathetic to households, would be policy mistakes. The appropriate policy action for the South African government should be a dose of do‐nothingism. Any intervention would potentially have negative unintended consequences in the next production season and leave the country with long-term food security issues. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo here.

Since the reports of El Niño-induced drought and crop losses emerged, there have been rising concerns about a potential surge in South Africa’s consumer food price inflation. There have also been calls for the government to intervene and cushion households from potential food price surges. It remains unclear, however, if such assistance should be through policy instruments or household support in the form of food packages for the indigent. There may even be a temptation to ask whether the government should limit agricultural commodity exports or policy options for price interventions. Such suggestions, while sympathetic to households, would be policy mistakes. The appropriate policy action for the South African government should be a dose of do‐nothingism. Any intervention would potentially have negative unintended consequences in the next production season and leave the country with long-term food security issues. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo here.

You might have room for an extra chop at the braai. Bloomberg's Shisa Nyama Index indicates a decline in meat prices compared to last month, while the country's consumer food inflation eased to 6 percent in February. AGBIZ Chief Economist, Wandile Sihlobo, attributes this drop to a supply recovery. Watch the interview here. Sihlobo also discusses the challenges ahead for South Africa's agriculture sector in an interview with SABC News, watch here.

PwC underscores the urgency for sustainable food production methods and the reduction of food waste to meet Africa's future nutritional demands. Amidst growing sustainability awareness, stakeholders are adopting new agricultural practices, spurred by regulatory changes and consumer demands. Leveraging organic farming, technology integration, and transparent supply chains can mitigate environmental impact and enhance profitability. The report emphasises the importance of regulatory compliance, technological innovation, and consumer trust in reshaping the food industry's landscape. As environmental regulations tighten, businesses are urged to proactively adapt to ensure long-term viability and resilience. Now is the pivotal moment for stakeholders to embrace transformative changes and drive positive impacts on both business and society. Click here to read full article first published on engineeringnews.co.za.

Alissa Ashcroft, Karla Vasquez, and Rhoda Weeks-Brown highlight the detrimental impact of hidden debt on economies and advocate for better disclosure laws. They emphasise the need for updated domestic legislation to ensure transparency in public obligations. Their research identifies vulnerabilities in current legal frameworks and provides recommendations for strengthening disclosure requirements, citing examples from countries such as Ecuador and Ghana. By enhancing transparency, they argue, countries can mitigate the risks of corruption and improve accountability, benefiting both borrowers and creditors. The authors stress the importance of international cooperation and IMF involvement in promoting debt transparency for sustainable economic growth. Click here to read full article by IMF Blog.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25. Oilseeds are important rotational crops. Stable local demand for oilseed crushing, coupled with potential export markets should motivate producers to maintain oilseed area. Despite major investments over the past 15 years to expand oilseed processing capabilities, production has exceeded crushing capacity, shifting excess oilseeds to export markets. South Africa’s economic challenges, policy uncertainties, rolling blackouts, high interest rates, utility costs, and inflation are likely to delay significant investments to further expand crushing capacity. Read full Oilseeds and Products Annual report here.

This update provides insights into South Africa's supply chain and international trade. Commercial ports saw a slight increase in container handling, despite challenges like high swells and equipment breakdowns. In the global maritime industry, the Baltimore bridge collapse and vessel diversions via the Cape of Good Hope impacted operations. Air cargo handling at ORTIA reached record levels, influenced by global dynamics and regional challenges. Regional road freight trade saw changes in queue and transit times, with border crossing times fluctuating. Additionally, developments in regional trade policies, such as Botswana's fuel import regulations, are highlighted. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

Macadamia prices are recovering back from historic lows last year. As the 2024 harvest is about to commence in South Africa, there is optimism about the road ahead. But industry experts caution that now more than ever, the sweet spot for macadamia nut prices needs to be established to keep the sector as a whole sustainable over the long term. Global Macadamias, a large processor and exporter based in South Africa, saw its sales team traverse the globe over the last few months, stopping in all the major macadamia nut markets in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and the United States. "The feedback we received was consistent: demand has increased, leading to higher prices," said Roelof van Rooyen, director of Global Macadamias. Indications across the market are that inshell and kernel prices for macadamias are set to rise by between 10% to 30% depending on crackout style, size and quality. Click here to read full article derived from freshplaza.com.

The 2024 citrus export season will begin in earnest this month. In the build-up to the export season, the variety focus groups of the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) presented their predicted export volumes for the upcoming season at the Citrus Marketing Forum held last week. Overall, an increase in export volume is expected. This is a testament to the resilience of South African citrus growers, producing more citrus under challenging circumstances, such as steep increases in input costs, load shedding and deteriorating public infrastructure. This increase is also a result of younger trees coming into production across a number of regions. Click here to read full statement by Justin Chadwick CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association Of Southern Africa (CGA).

The NWU Business School's Purchasing Managers' Index (PUI) dipped slightly to 65.8 in 1Q 2024, reflecting a challenging economic environment compounded by uncertainties surrounding South Africa's upcoming elections. While the IMF forecasts a global economic growth of 3.2% in 2024, regional disparities persist, with the US, EU, and China exhibiting varied economic performances. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by Red Sea shipping disruptions, continue to disrupt supply chains. Despite the World Bank's optimism for Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP growth, challenges remain, particularly in major economies like Nigeria and South Africa. Domestically, South Africa faces persistent economic headwinds with sluggish GDP growth and strained household finances. The South African Reserve Bank maintains borrowing costs for now but hints at potential easing in the second half of 2024. Amid uncertainties, reforms in the energy, logistics, and transportation sectors offer hope for driving growth, yet business confidence remains fragile due to the political uncertainty surrounding the elections. Click here to read full NWU Business School Policy Uncertainty Index (PUI) 1Q 2024.

In the latest edition of Fresh Quarterly, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

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