From the shiny cars lining up at the dealership to the countless goodies stacked on supermarket shelves, and even the packages delivered right to our doorsteps, logistics is the invisible force that keeps it all moving. With it, we can get our hands on the things we need and want. Consider logistics as the lifeblood of the global economy, ensuring that goods and resources move efficiently to where they are needed. Despite its crucial role, this sector still faces various challenges that hinder its growth globally. In Africa, a continent teeming with a bustling population and abundant natural resources, the movement of goods and people, both within and beyond its borders, encounters obstacles due to inconsistent and often insufficient logistics infrastructure. However, certain African nations stand at the forefront of the logistics sector when compared to their counterparts. Click here to read full article derived from africa.businessinsider.com. 

Access to electricity – measured by the share of individuals who use electricity as their main energy source – has significantly improved in lower-income countries in recent decades. Thanks to large-scale rural electrification and infrastructure development programmes, 90% of the population in these countries had access by 2021, up from about 74% at the turn of the century. In many of these countries, however, electricity supply is often unreliable. Generating capacity is inadequate, there’s not enough investment in infrastructure, and energy prices are high. Consequently, outages are frequent and long-lasting. By forcing households and firms to use alternatives, such as diesel generators and back-up batteries, these outages raise the costs of energy, thus limiting the benefits of access. Those costs come in the form of direct expenses for households and firms and broader social impacts. Click here to read full article derived from theconversation.com.

South Africa has just gone through its most significant elections, since our first democratic elections in 1994. More than 16 million South Africans have expressed their aspirations and sent a clear message that they do not trust any single political party to govern alone. As political parties engage in talks to form coalition governments, we emphasise the importance of prioritising the interests of the entire country over their own parties and personal interests. Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) joins the many who have congratulated South Africa on successfully conducting elections in which 52 parties and independent candidates participated in the national elections, with hundreds of others participating in the provincial elections throughout the country. Click here to read full BUSA media release.

Agbiz, in partnership with Kwanalu, organised a workshop aimed at equipping members of the farming community with strategies to cope with instability and unrest, drawing from the experiences of the July 2021 unrest in KZN. The workshop sought to facilitate learning from past challenges and foster collaboration to build resilient communities capable of addressing and preventing future upheavals. Pannar Seed kindly hosted and sponsored the workshop. Click here to watch video shot and produced by GWK. 

With the voter counts now completed and the African National Congress (ANC) support having fallen sharply to just 40% support, some form of a coalition government will likely govern South Africa. The nature of such a coalition arrangement will likely emerge in the coming days and weeks. As with any coalition negotiations, trade-offs will likely involve several government functions and policies. The question that should be addressed in the agriculture sector is: What are the implications for potential changes in government functions on agriculture and land reform policy? We believe that regardless of the formation of the coalition the ANC settles with, the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) policies should be maintained. Read full report by Agbiz Chief Economist, Wandile Sihlobo here.

After publishing a sharp contraction of -12,2% year-on-year in 2023 of the agricultural gross value-added performance, Statistics South Africa revised the figures to a mild contraction of -4,8% year-on-year. This revised figure is roughly in line with the expectations of various researchers, most notably the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP). Importantly, South Africa's agricultural gross value added grew by 13,5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2024. This improvement is based on the robust production conditions of various horticulture products, the livestock and poultry industry recovery after a few challenging months of animal diseases that weighed on production, and the base effects. Admittedly, the production conditions in some livestock and poultry businesses may not be fully back to their normal levels, but the general subsector performance is on a recovery path. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe have recently published reports indicating a potential decline in grain harvest because of intense El Niño-induced dryness. These developments could put the entire Southern Africa maize supply chain at risk, with Zambia and South Africa hard hit by heatwaves and dryness. The neighbouring small producers such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia are also struggling with dryness. Given that South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are among the largest maize producers within the Southern Africa region, a potential decline in the harvest in these countries suggests there could be an increase in the risk of food insecurity. This would necessitate imports to meet the shortfall in the region’s maize supplies. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for theconversation.com.

The collaboration between Transnet, organized business and agriculture sector stakeholders to improve efficiency at South African ports must continue. Efficient logistics are the lifeblood of South African agriculture and other exporting sectors of the economy. Admittedly, the deciduous fruit industry faced numerous challenges at the port of Cape Town at the start of this year related to delays that proved costly to farming businesses. Still, continuous collaboration to ensure improvements is the only viable path forward. We are already seeing the benefits of the improvements in the agricultural sector through the rise in the value of exports. For example, in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa’s agricultural exports increased by 6% year-on-year, reaching US$3,1 billion, according to data from Trade Map. This increase results from a relatively higher volume and price of exported products. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo derived from agribook.co.za here.

We appreciate that the minds of many South Africans are on national elections matters, but food matters remain vital in the midst of all. Thus, reflecting on the latest Crop Estimates Committee's (CEC) forecasts for the 2023/24 summer crop production season is valuable. This is a fourth production estimate for the season, and the harvest across the country is underway, so we may put more weight on the accuracy of this figure than our tentative view in the previous estimates. At the end of May 2024, the CEC placed South Africa's 2023/24 total summer grains and oilseed production forecast at 15,9 million tonnes, down 0,5% from the previous month's forecast and 21% lower than the last season's harvest. Click here to listen to full podcast – Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

With the elections imminent, fireside conversations have drifted towards predictions for the elections and what it could mean for agriculture. Most polls indicate that we could be headed for a coalition of some kind and questions naturally gravitate towards what this could mean for critical policies affecting the agricultural sector. Without looking too deep into the crystal ball, here are a few policy areas that are worth looking out for post-elections. Looking at the various manifestos, all parties across the political spectrum have two issues in common this year, namely skills development and immigration. Interestingly, all political parties support training and skills development for agriculture as it is seen to harbor the potential for significant job creation. Click here to read full article by Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff first published in Farmers Weekly.

Climate change poses a special challenge to the International Monetary Fund. While the IMF’s World Economic Outlook offered its first substantive discussion of the matter back in 2008, the executive board didn’t agree on a strategy for helping member countries address it until 2021. To this day, the issue provokes strong reactions both from those who want the IMF to do more and from those who argue that it has already strayed beyond its core mandate and expertise. Why should an issue that is widely considered an existential threat to the planet raise such controversy about the work of the IMF? In part, not everyone appreciates the seriousness and urgency of addressing climate change and its risks for global prosperity. Even some of those who do maintain that it has little to do with the core mission of the IMF. Click here to read full report by the imf.org.

African economies remain resilient amid multiple shocks, with average growth projected to stabilise at 4.0% in 2024–25, up from 3.1% in 2023. The slowdown in 2023, from 4.1% in 2022, was due to high food and energy prices, weak global demand, climate impacts on agriculture and power generation, and political instability. Despite these challenges, 15 countries saw growth of at least 5% in 2023. While three of the largest economies slowed, over half of African countries had higher GDP growth in 2023 than in 2022. The continent's resilience is expected to boost GDP growth to 3.7% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, led by East, Southern, and West Africa. In 2024, 40 countries are expected to post higher growth, with 17 economies growing by more than 5%, maintaining Africa's status as the second fastest-growing region globally after Asia. Click here to read full Africa’s Economic Performance and Outlook. 

Job losses caused by the closing of coal-fired power plants, aimed at decarbonising South Africa’s economy, will be dwarfed by the job losses that could stem from export levies such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These levies, which seek to tax carbon emissions associated with imported products at the same level as local emissions, will have a catastrophic impact on exports like the Western Cape’s high-value horticultural trade, André de Ruyter, former CEO of Eskom, warned at the deciduous fruit grower organisation Hortgro’s technical symposium in Somerset West. “South Africa is one of the most carbon intensive countries in the world. It has 1.5 times the carbon intensity of China and double the carbon intensity of the global average, and a lot of this carbon is contained in our export products,” said De Ruyter, currently a Senior Fellow at the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs in the USA. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

It was a tough season for South African stonefruit, but there are signs of things improving for the category. Logistical problems and a dramatic increase in the supply of South African nectarines to the EU were the most significant features of the country’s stonefruit export season. In a report compiled for growers by industry body Hortgro, it was also revealed that steady progress was being made to gain access for South African stonefruit to China. “It was one of the most difficult seasons we have ever had,” said Hortgro’s Jacques du Preez. “It was mostly factors outside our control which caused the most frustration. The sad part is that market conditions were excellent, but logistics hurt us badly.” Click here to read full article derived from fruitnet.com.

This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organised by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. It aims to summarise the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policymakers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in April 2024. Click here to read the full Chief Economists Outlook for May 2024 by the WEF.

We had an uncertain start to 2024, but recently, developments have been somewhat more positive. Inflation outcomes were worse than expected early in the year, leading to a repricing of rate expectations. There is still considerable uncertainty about the longer-run inflation outlook, globally. That said, inflation outcomes in the United States have been more benign recently, and markets still see some room for adjustments by the US Federal Reserve this year. We may also see easing by other major central banks. Meanwhile, oil prices are back to where they were at the start of the year, close to $80 per barrel, after briefly exceeding $90. Although geopolitical tensions are far from resolved, some of the more adverse economic scenarios, such as oil prices above $100 per barrel, appear less probable now. Our own forecast suggests oil prices will remain near their current levels. Click here to read full statement by the South African Reserve Bank. 

As the South African citrus production season develops, South African lemons have also been put on the market alongside grapefruits. With the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, the sales of imported apple gift boxes are booming. South African lemons are now on the market, and current prices are lower than early prices in previous years. Merchants attribute this to the overall decline in the fruit market and the large volume of locally produced lemons in China, which impacts the demand for imported lemons. The arrival of South African grapefruits continues to increase, and prices have gradually reduced. Currently, they are mostly priced at ¥150-¥160 each, about 15% lower than in the past. Merchants report that while the quality of the grapefruits is good, the large and rapidly increasing volume has led to high early-season prices followed by a rapid decline. Click here to read full article derived from freshplaza.com.

Eight decades after Bretton Woods, the IMF must professionalize and depoliticize its decisions. If the IMF didn’t already exist, we would have to invent it. After two once-a-century catastrophes in quick succession—the pandemic and the global financial crisis—countries have borrowed massively to help their people and institutions survive. More disruptions threaten as the planet warms and new pathogens emerge. Meanwhile, rising barriers to trade and investment hamper the usual mechanisms to bridge opportunity gaps between aging industrial countries and young developing economies. That growing disconnect has spurred millions of migrants to brave dense jungles and open seas to find a footing in the developed world, in turn increasing calls against global integration. Click here to read full report by the imf.org.

When I recently visited Cambridge University, I raised a simple question: How can we build an economy that benefits not just this generation but also those that follow? Finding the right answer is more important than ever. Geopolitical tensions are on the rise, and the world economy is facing its weakest medium-term prospects in decades. Young people especially face enormous challenges, from paying for their education, to finding work and buying a home, to grappling with the potentially costly impact of climate change on their lives. Many people feel that the economy is not working for them. Many are not just anxious but angry. And we are seeing this play out in society and in politics, raising the specter of an “age of anger,” of further polarization and instability. Click here to read full report by the imf.org.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
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