The impact of rising interest rates on economic activity varies widely across countries, influenced by distinct housing market characteristics. Countries with lower shares of fixed-rate mortgages experience stronger effects of monetary policy tightening, leading to immediate adjustments in household payments. Moreover, nations with higher household debt relative to assets are more susceptible to these changes. Housing supply constraints further amplify the transmission of monetary policy, leading to increased borrowing costs and home price appreciation in restricted markets. Understanding these housing dynamics is crucial for central banks to calibrate policy effectively and mitigate potential economic risks associated with prolonged high interest rates. Read full article derived from IMF Blog here.

South Africa’s logistics utility has confirmed that it has filed an opposing affidavit against a bid by the ports operator of AP Moller–Maersk to interdict the privatisation process at the Port of Durban of International Container Terminal Services Incorporated (ICTSI). This emerged after it was reported this morning that APM Terminals (APMT) had filed papers at the Durban High Court, citing that it had not been allowed a proper, fair and compliant opportunity against the Filipino concession company’s bid. This is despite the Manila-based operator winning the contract last year as the “Preferred Bidder” for the 25-year joint venture with Transnet Port Terminals (TPT) to develop and upgrade the terminal. According to APMT, the bidding process started in 2022 but they only heard about ICTSI’s successful bid on March 1. Click here to read full article first published in freightnews.co.za.

This Trade Report delves into the pivotal role of climate-backed financing in driving Africa's transition to renewable energy sources, emphasising its impact on energy mix diversification, infrastructure development, storage solutions, and surplus trade. It highlights the necessity for innovative financial instruments and robust public-private partnerships to overcome funding challenges and accelerate green projects. The report advocates for strengthened regulatory frameworks and policy support to foster an enabling environment for investment, enabling Africa to unlock its renewable energy potential. Additionally, it underscores the urgency for increased adaptation finance and regional collaboration to enhance energy security and spur economic growth across the continent. Through strategic recommendations and case studies, the report underscores climate-backed financing as a catalyst for Africa's sustainable energy transformation, envisioning a future of resilience and prosperity driven by clean energy. Click here to read full report.

With over 50 parties vying for seats, the emergence of Mr. Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party has stirred controversy, though his candidature remains contested. Initial polls show a dip in support for the ANC, with the MK Party making significant gains. However, the sustainability of this support remains uncertain. Post-election scenarios present various coalition possibilities, with speculation on ANC alliances with smaller parties. Amidst electoral complexities, the election outcome remains uncertain, potentially leading to coalition negotiations and the prospect of a minority government. Click here to read full report by JP Landman. 

Opposition parties in Parliament are considering legal measures in response to the approval of the Expropriation Bill. To delve deeper into the effectiveness of the bill for transformation and its implications, we are joined virtually by Dr. Rosalie Kingwill, an Independent Land Governance Researcher focusing on property rights and land administration, and Annelize Crosby, a Legal Intelligence Manager at Agbiz with expertise in legislative tracking. Click here to watch full interview with SABC News.

The past two years presented major challenges for the South African livestock industry. The spread of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and higher feed costs were the two major factors that weighed on their business. As farmers, various feedlots, and the government worked to control the spread of the FMD, the impact was deepening on the revenues of farming businesses as they suddenly had to limit the movement of animals, and various export markets were temporarily closed. In the case of the beef industry, in 2022, the exports fell below the prior five-year average, totalling 26 881 tonnes, down 16% year-on-year, according to data from Trade Map. The exports recovered slightly in 2023, up 3% year-on-year to 27 675 tonnes. Even as the beef industry confronted these challenges, it had already resolved that widening the export market would catalyze its long-term growth. Read full Agricultural Trade Digest by Wandile Sihlobo.

We are finally seeing some signs of recovery after South Africa's wool exports sharply declined in 2022. The temporary closure of the Chinese market in the second to third quarters of 2022 weighed on the industry's exports and farmers' finances. China is a major buyer of South African wool and of wool globally. Over the past ten years, China accounted, on average, for roughly 69% of South Africa's annual wool exports in value terms. Thus, a temporary closure in 2022 was a major issue. China's reason for this move was to protect their market from the Foot-and-Mouth Diseases spreading in the South African cattle industry. But this was an oversight on the Chinese part. There is a unique protocol to handle the wool shipments and avoid contamination during a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in South Africa. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

We continue to see relatively weak sales in South Africa's agricultural machinery market. In March 2024, the tractor sales were down 26% y/y, with 498 units sold. The combine harvester sales were down 33% y/y, with 26 units sold. As we stated in our previous notes, the decline in sales since the start of the year probably reflects the normalization of sales after a few years of robust activity. For example, South Africa's tractor sales for 2022 amounted to 9,181 units, up 17% y/y. This was the highest annual sales figure in the past 40 years. The combine harvesters also had an excellent performance of 373 units in 2022, up 38% y/y. This was the highest yearly sales figure since 1985. In 2023, the tractor sales were down marginally from the previous year, while the combine harvester sales held the last year's momentum. These generally strong agricultural machinery sales these past few years were primarily based on ample grains and oilseed harvests when prices were also favourable. Read full report by Wandile Sihlobo here.

Farmers in Mexico and the U.S. are starting to plant grains and oilseeds for the 2024/25 season. The U.S. does not typically plant much white maize in the grains component of the crop. It usually is a few million tonnes for contracts. Mexico plants a large volume of white maize mainly for domestic consumption. But we are opportune for Zimbabwe and Zambia to nudge the Mexican or American farmers to increase their white maize plantings for Southern African exports this season. The El Niño-induced dryness and heatwave hit the Southern Africa region, resulting in roughly half of Zimbabwe and Zambian maize crop failure. South Africa’s maize crop is also down by 20% y/y, with a harvest estimated at 13,2 million tonnes. If it materializes, it would still meet the domestic needs of about 12 million tonnes, leaving the country with a small export volume. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo. 

This month, we will have farmers in the Western Cape likely begin to prepare the soil for the 2024/25 winter crop production season by the end of April into May. Other major winter crop-producing provinces, such as Free State, Limpopo and the Northern Cape, will likely start around the end of May. The production of winter crops outside the Western Cape has sizable irrigation support. These regions should benefit from the relatively higher dam levels from the early summer rainfall. In major winter grains such as wheat, nearly half of the production in South Africa is produced under irrigation. The irrigation share in overall wheat production is essential in an environment where drier weather conditions and heat waves are causing significant damage to summer grains and oilseed regions. Click here to listen to full episode of the Agricultural Market Viewpoint by Wandile Sihlobo. Click here to watch eNCA discussion on the impact of dry winter on agriculture with Sihlobo. 

South Africa's largest short-term insurer Santam says it has received multiple claims from the Western Cape floods damage over the past 48 hours. High gale force winds have resulted in the spread of fires in the areas of Stellenbosch and Fish Hoek. The recent adverse weather conditions have contributed to higher insurance premiums charged by some of the country's major insurers. Watch SABC News interview with Wandile Sihlobo here. 

The increasing digitalization and geopolitical tensions have elevated the risk of cyberattacks with systemic consequences, posing a severe threat to financial stability. Incidents have doubled since the pandemic, with extreme losses quadrupling since 2017, totaling $2.5 billion. Financial institutions, holding vast amounts of sensitive data, are prime targets, accounting for nearly one-fifth of all attacks. Such incidents could erode confidence in the financial system, lead to market selloffs, and disrupt critical services. Strengthening cybersecurity frameworks, including national strategies, effective regulations, and international cooperation, is imperative to mitigate these risks and ensure resilience in the financial sector. Read full article derived from IMF Blog here.

The space economy is poised to soar to $1.8 trillion by 2035, impacting industries worldwide and offering solutions to global challenges. Beyond rocket science, space technologies influence daily life, from weather forecasts to food delivery and communication. With insights from global thought leaders, the report forecasts significant growth and transformation, driven by factors like decreasing launch costs, commercial innovation, and increased cultural awareness. Embracing space opportunities requires collaboration, technological innovation, and financial competitiveness to unlock its full potential and drive long-term benefits across industries. Click here to read full Insight Report April 2024 by the World Economic Forum.

With the elections now fixed for 29 May, we have come to the end of another five-year cycle in both politics and policymaking. Global disruptors such as the COVID-19 lockdown, geopolitical instability and soaring international freight rates make the past five years a bit difficult to assess. These factors cannot be ignored. Many countries have had to become more self-reliant and perhaps these global disruptors played a big part towards deglobalisation. However, they coincided with a policy emphasis towards more localised production and procurement. Localisation, or the drive to produce and buy local products, has been a central policy objective of the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition over the past five years. When Agbiz and other business leaders recently met with the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Ebrahim Patel, we were presented with a localisation policy framework to comment on. Read full article by Agbiz CEO, Theo Boshoff for Farmer’s Weekly here.

The 2024/25 cotton season presents promising prospects globally, with consumption surpassing production by 80,000 metric tonnes due to stabilising global markets and improved consumer confidence. Major variables, including area, production, consumption, and trade, are all expected to increase over the previous season, indicating positive trends in the cotton industry. China, the world leader in cotton production, consumption, and imports, is forecast to decrease production but increase consumption, necessitating higher imports from major partners like the United States, Brazil, and Australia. Meanwhile, the United States anticipates growth in area, production, and exports, with potential challenges posed by severe drought conditions in the Texas High Plains region. Despite slight price increases, global cotton prices are expected to remain stable unless adverse weather impacts production significantly. Read full Cotton Market Report March 2024 here.

In February 2024, SACOTA, in partnership with DALRRD and industry stakeholders, hosted a delegation from Egypt's NPPO to explore export opportunities for maize and soybeans. Following strategic meetings and site visits, Dr. Saad Moussa of Egypt's Foreign Agricultural Relations signed the official approval letter on March 12, 2024, paving the way for South African exporters to access Egypt's market. Egypt, a significant importer of maize and soybeans, offers promising prospects for South African exports, with the potential to diversify export destinations and bolster economic growth. SACOTA extends appreciation to all stakeholders involved, highlighting the collaborative efforts to strengthen agricultural ties and enhance cooperation within the AfCFTA framework. Read full report in the SACOTA Newsletter: April 2024, Volume 7 here.

On 5 April 2024, Agbiz bid farewell to Ms. Natahsa van Zyl, who has taken up a new employment opportunity. Ms. van Zyl served as the Financial Manager of Agbiz for nearly 8 years, during which we always managed to obtain an unqualified financial audit. On behalf of the Agbiz team, we thank her for her diligent work over the years and wish her well in her new position. At the same time, we would like to welcome Ms. Phyllis Strydom, who has been appointed to the position for a fixed term of one year. Ms. Strydom brings a wealth of experience, and we look forward to her contribution. Phyllis commenced duties at Agbiz on 2 April 2024.

Discover the latest updates from Fruit SA’s newsletter! Delve into essential information, highlights, and upcoming events shaping the fruit industry. Don't miss out – click here to explore the newsletter.

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
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