Dozens of farmers in Berlin are protesting Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government plans to cut agricultural subsidies, culminating in a convoy reaching the Brandenburg Gate. Despite the government's recent decision to partially reverse subsidy cuts, the German Farmers' Association considers it insufficient, sparking ongoing demonstrations. Concerns have arisen about anti-state and far-right elements exploiting the protests, leading to a warning from the Interior Ministry. Finance Minister Lindner, from the Free Democrats, urged farmers to reconsider, highlighting the sector's substantial subsidies. Support for the protests comes from the conservative opposition and far-right groups, adding complexity to the situation. As major traffic disruptions are expected, significant routes, including the Strasse des 17. Juni, have been closed, and exemptions from driving bans have been granted to mitigate potential chaos. The protests could impact the delivery of goods, with the state of Brandenburg expressing concerns and authorities in Hamburg warning of potential traffic chaos due to arriving farmers for a rally. Click here to read full article by AFP.

South Africa's agricultural sector, particularly wheat production in the Western Cape, anticipates a challenging year reminiscent of 2023 due to unresolved issues and looming El Nino uncertainties. Agbiz CEO, Theo Boshoff, highlights the industry's struggles, including logistical hurdles, energy crises, and diseases affecting animal products. While field crops thrive, the global shift towards instability poses risks for a trade-dependent economy. Boshoff emphasises the need for industry competitiveness and structural reforms, urging swift approval of key bills. Despite resilient emergency plans, rolling blackouts impact agro-processing, potentially affecting food prices. Agbiz's pivotal role in strategic trade positioning and efforts within BRICS and AGOA reflects the sector's commitment to sustaining growth in challenging times. Click here to read full article by Business Report.

The agriculture sector in South Africa, particularly the animal products sub-sector, is poised to confront persistent challenges in 2024, exacerbated by ongoing biosecurity issues like foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza. Agbiz CEO, Theo Boshoff, highlights the looming threat of El Niño, coupled with familiar hindrances such as load shedding, logistics, and energy concerns, impacting business confidence despite favourable agricultural conditions last year. Boshoff emphasises the need for reforms in energy and logistics to mitigate challenges. While the horticultural sector improved, the animal products sub-sector faced continued struggles. Global uncertainties, including the shift towards instability, impact South Africa's trade-dependent economy, with 52% of agricultural products exported. Boshoff stresses the sector's resilience amid rolling blackouts but urges timely structural reforms. Agbiz, focuses on strategic trade positioning and emphasises key trade agreements' renewal, including AGOA and the SADC EU Economic Partnership Agreement, as crucial for South Africa's agricultural growth. Click here to read full article by Business Report.

Zimbabwe was one of the countries I worried would have a maize supply shortage in 2023. This was after data from the Pretoria office of the US department of agriculture showed that Zimbabwe’s 2022/23 maize production would amount to 1.5-million tonnes, little more than half of the ample harvest of 2.7-million tonnes of the 2020/21 production season. While this would have been a minor improvement on the 2021/22 production season’s maize harvest of 1.4-million tonnes, it would be 25% short of the country’s annual maize need of about 2-million tonnes. I feared Zimbabwe would have to import about half a million tonnes to fulfil its annual need and another half million tonnes to replenish its grain reserves, since the Zimbabwe Grain Marketing Board is mandated to maintain a minimum of half a million tonnes of strategic maize reserve in physical stocks. Still, given the poor economic conditions in Zimbabwe I suspected that the board was unlikely to procure the half million tonnes strategic reserve in full within the 2023/24 marketing year (the marketing year corresponds with the 2022/23 production year). I therefore believed that at the very least imports would amount to about half a million tonnes. There are many countries Zimbabwe could rely on for imports, but neighbouring SA and Zambia are the usual suppliers in times of need. Read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo here.

One can categorise the start of this year as positive for South Africa’s agriculture. I recently drove across most regions of the country, which was an opportunity to assess agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. The vegetation was welcoming and green all along the way, having benefited from the early summer favourable rainfall. In areas planted early in the season, the maize fields looked healthy. Other crops were also visibly in good condition. One would not expect such favourable conditions amid an El Niño season. But the typical dryness of an El Niño may only start to intensify from March. This is mainly the case for the central and eastern regions of South Africa, which could receive above-normal rainfall in the month before that, according to the South African Weather Service. Meanwhile, the country’s western regions could experience below-normal rain in the coming months. The soil moisture levels in the west are already low and thus concerning for farmers. Still, the current agricultural conditions are favourable. In a few exchanges with farmers, they appreciated the recent rains, although some were excessive. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for mg.co.za here. Alternatively, Click here to listed to Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo on the same topic.

I typically drive from Pretoria to the Wild Coast in the Eastern Cape each December, which allows me to assess SA’s agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. Whether one enjoys the trip largely depends on weather conditions and the subsequent effect on crops and vegetation. In drought seasons, like 2015, traversing dry grains and oilseed fields and dry grazing veld can be depressing. Conversely, it can be an uplifting drive in rainy seasons, with green and lush fields visible from the highway. This year’s drive qualifies for the latter. The vegetation was welcoming and green all along the way, having benefited from the early summer favourable rainfall. In areas planted early in the season, the maize fields looked healthy from a distance. Other crops were also in good condition. One would not expect such favourable conditions amid an El Niño season. But the typical dryness of an El Niño may only start to intensify from March 2024. That is mainly the case for the central and eastern regions of SA, which could receive above-normal rainfall in the month before that, according to the SA Weather Service. Meanwhile, the country’s western regions could experience below-normal rain throughout the season. The soil moisture levels in the west are already low and thus concerning for farmers. Read full piece by Wandile Sihlobo here.

In 2024, South Africa's economic trajectory is contingent on global economic patterns, geopolitical shifts, domestic infrastructure issues, effective governmental reform execution, and impending elections. The global focus on democracy will intensify with over 40 elections worldwide, involving 4 billion people and encompassing nearly half of the world's population. Despite potential improvements, Western economies face challenges, especially with prolonged higher interest rates impacting companies and consumers globally. The Chinese economy is anticipated to slow to around 4.5% in the next year. Geopolitical risks are rising, notably with Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping causing global trade concerns and heightened fears of supply chain instability. The IMF projects world economic growth at 3% in 2023, easing to 2.9% in 2024, with regional disparities. Sub-Saharan Africa's modest growth prospects in 2024, predicted at around 4% by the IMF, face challenges of high inflation and excessive public debt, leading to exclusion from global debt markets. The region grapples with scarce cash, hindering future investments and posing threats due to uneven growth and heightened borrowing costs. Click here to read full report by Prof Raymond Parsons, North-West University Business School.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the NWU Business School's PUI declined to 65.5 from 71.8 in the previous quarter, reflecting a mixed economic landscape. While global economic resilience persisted, risks of slower growth in 2024 remained, amplified by geopolitical tensions such as Houthi threats in the Red Sea. The IMF forecasts world economic growth at 3% in 2023, slightly dipping to 2.9% in 2024, with uncertainties surrounding the Chinese economy. South Africa faced domestic and global challenges, including negative factors like GDP contraction, Eskom blackouts, and Transnet bottlenecks. Positive indicators included inflation within the SARB target range and the potential easing of interest rates in 2024. Notable events, like the BRICS summit and AGOA gathering, injected certainty into foreign trade prospects. However, the upcoming elections pose a key risk, emphasising the need for steady implementation of reform initiatives to ensure favourable economic performance in 2024. Click here to read full NWU Business School Policy Uncertainty Index (PUI) 4Q 2023.

Emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the hope for an extended period of global stability was swiftly shattered as a conflict erupted in the Black Sea region. Subsequently, we have witnessed escalating global conflicts that have triggered significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape. This has prompted nations to reassess measures that disrupt worldwide trade, including export restrictions and pricing controls that impact global supply chains. Concurrently, the international community grapples with combating critical plant and animal diseases while grappling with the looming spectre of climate change. However, the imperative remains for businesses to persevere and adapt to the evolving global terrain. In echoing Charles Darwin's theory, it is not the strongest species that survives, but rather those that prove most adaptable to change. In light of these challenges, the 2024 Agbiz Congress theme intentionally recognises the evolving global panorama and redirects its focus towards sustaining growth in this uncertain environment. Esteemed speakers will share their perspectives on how to navigate and adapt to the complexities posed by geopolitical, environmental, and social instability. Aligned with Agbiz's ethos, the Congress aims to seek solutions that will propel the sector towards prosperity. To learn more and register for the event, we have launched our 2024 Agbiz Congress website, where you can find comprehensive information and details about this vital gathering. Visit the website to stay updated and secure your spot at this essential event. Learn more and register for the 2024 Agbiz Congress here.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.