In a world facing food security challenges, South Africa's agricultural achievements offer a beacon of hope. Renowned economist Wandile Sihlobo explores how secure land tenure, infrastructure investment, and technology have advanced South Africa’s farming sector. His talk contrasts this progress with sub-Saharan Africa’s struggles, especially undocumented land ownership. Discover how South Africa’s approach offers a roadmap for regional agricultural development, advocating for policy reforms and increased private sector involvement. Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of Agbiz and author of two books on agriculture. He serves on South Africa's Presidential Economic Advisory Council and is a Senior Lecturer at Stellenbosch University. Sihlobo holds positions on various national committees, chairs the BRICS Agribusiness Working Group, and is a columnist for multiple publications. He has degrees in Agricultural Economics. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Click here to watch.

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) is deeply concerned about the inappropriate rhetoric directed at those who have raised legitimate concerns regarding the NHI Act, in its current form, as a suitable vehicle to deliver universal health coverage. Raising these concerns is not only appropriate, but in fact, the responsible and necessary course of action to ensure that the path that we choose as a country is both viable and sustainable. BUSA has never wavered from its genuine commitment to healthcare reform, and our country’s objective of achieving universal health coverage. Our primary objective, in conjunction with Government and other stakeholders, is to ensure that everyone in South Africa has access to quality healthcare, and that the inequalities across the healthcare system are addressed in a responsible and expedited manner. This is not only a social necessity but also essential to driving the economic growth our country so desperately needs. Click here to read full statement by BUSA CEO Cas Coovadia.

South Africa’s GDP grew by only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2024, following near-stagnation from early 2023. Key contributors to the sluggish growth include falling mining and metal prices, as well as ongoing challenges at Eskom and Transnet. Manufacturing value added improved by 1.1% in the second quarter but remains 7% below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, private services such as professional and personal services continued to drive the modest recovery, though they too have slowed over the past two years. Employment saw positive growth, with over 300,000 jobs added in the year to the second quarter of 2024, driven by the informal sector and domestic work. Despite these gains, employment rates remain below pre-pandemic levels, with only 40% of adults in paid employment. Infrastructure challenges and macroeconomic policies are highlighted as key barriers to sustained growth. Click here to read full The Real Economy Bulletin by TIPS.

President Cyril Ramaphosa says the relations between South Africa and China have entered a new “era of opportunity”. The President was addressing the nation through his weekly newsletter following an official State Visit to the People’s Republic of China last week. “During the state visit, China and South Africa agreed to upgrade our relationship to an All-Round Strategic Cooperative Partnership in a New Era. This signifies the strengthening of the political, economic and social ties between the two countries. “The strengthening of ties with major trading partners like China continues to yield benefits for the South African economy and people. It is clear that relations between South Africa and China have entered a new era of opportunity. “Our visit has strengthened trade and investment ties and cemented our shared commitment to grow our economy, create jobs and advance prosperity for the people of our two countries,” he said. Click here to read full statement derived from sanews.gov.za. 

The Land Bank Board is pleased to announce the successful conclusion of the debt restructuring solution with all its lenders. Official notices have been issued, signalling the implementation of the solution. Following the signing of legal agreements and the fulfilment of all conditions, the debt restructuring solution will take effect on 16 September 2024, effectively ending Land Bank’s debt default position. This debt restructuring spans multiple financial instruments of all the Bank’s lenders, ensuring equitable treatment of all the lenders, regardless of the type of debt held and their governing laws. Scheduled repayments to lenders will occur every six months through to March 2028. The government's equity contribution will play a critical role in this plan, positioning Land Bank on a sustainable path forward. Ms. Thabi Nkosi, Chairman of the Board, reflected on the complexity of this process. Click here to read full statement by The Land and Agricultural Development Bank of South Africa. And click here to read speech by CEO. 

By this time next month, the fields across the eastern regions of South Africa will likely be busy. Farmers will be tilling the land for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season in mid-October. It will be another month before the country's western regions start till the land, from mid-November. The variation in the optimal planting windows is mainly due to the differences in rainfall patterns. From now on through the season, the weather outlook will remain a primary focus for the agricultural stakeholders. We are, after all, emerging from a challenging 2023-24 summer grains and oilseed season that resulted in major crop losses. The latest figures from the Crop Estimates Committee show that the 2023-24 summer crop may have fallen as much as 22% from the previous season to 15,69 million tonnes. The 2024-25 season seems likely to be a recovery period. Read full article by Agbiz Chief economist Wandile Sihlobo here.

South Africa's 2024-25 winter crop season is underway, and some regions of the Western Cape (the largest province for winter crops), have received excellent rains so far. Some areas of the Western Cape may have received more rain than ideal earlier in the season, leading to fears of possible poor yields. But we are still early in the season, and there will be clarity about the yield potential only in the coming months. We pay close attention to the Western Cape regarding the winter crops because of the province's significant contribution to these crops. For example, about 70% of the winter wheat plantings for the 2024-25 season are in the Western Cape. The area planted for barley, canola, and oats is much more prominent in the province as a winter rainfall region. Other major winter crop-producing provinces are the Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo, and the production in these provinces is mainly under irrigation. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

The drought that hit South Africa’s summer crops in February and March this year is starting to show on the economic indicators. After a robust expansion of 13.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa’s agricultural gross value added contracted by 2.1% in the second quarter. These figures are not surprising. South Africa’s agriculture has gone through the severe effect of the El Niño-induced drought, which weighed on crop yield. For example, the country’s 2024-25 summer crop harvest is down 22% from the previous season, estimated at 1.69 million tonnes. This figure of a crop decline encompasses maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. But drought was not the only problem. We continue to struggle with the lingering effects of animal diseases such as avian influenza in poultry, African swine fever in the piggery industry and foot-and-mouth disease in cattle. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

I am writing from the Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa, having spent the day with the Animal Feed Manufacturers Association of South Africa and participating in their Annual General Meeting. I presented an address alongside the giant of the poultry industry, Mr Chris Schutte of Astral. Animal Feed Manufacturers are the critical stakeholders of our livestock and poultry industry in South Africa – a subsector that makes up roughly half of our farming economy. Drought, animal diseases, failing municipalities, stock theft, and higher feed prices are among the recent challenges that have confronted livestock and poultry producers. If we are to be successful in this industry in years ahead, as in the past, we must focus on resolving these challenges. Most urgently we must tackle the cases of foot-and-mouth disease, avian influenza, African swine fever, and brucellosis that continue to emerge, leading to huge costs to farming businesses. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa’s agricultural growth in the first 30 years of the democratic era has been supported by, among other things, two pivotal interventions. The first was a deliberate and concerted strategy to invest in genetics for crops, horticulture and livestock, and the second was a strong push to expand export markets. As production continues to increase and capacity for expanding production remains available, these two levers must be accelerated. The department of agriculture must support new ethical breeding techniques that the private sector presents occasionally, as they may be vital for continuous productivity improvement. More importantly, with climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme adverse weather conditions, improved seed cultivars that cope with such environments will become critical in supporting our agricultural system. Therefore, crop and livestock breeding should remain a priority policy area for SA as an anchor for food security and agricultural production progress. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

The 2023/24 summer crop may have fallen as much as 22% from the previous season. By this time next month the fields across the eastern regions of SA will likely be a hive of activity. Farmers will be tilling the land for the 2024/25 summer grains and oilseed production season in mid-October. It will be another month before the western regions start to till the land, from mid-November. The variation in the optimal planting windows is mainly due to differences in rainfall patterns. From now on through the season the weather outlook will remain a primary focus for agricultural stakeholders. We are emerging from a challenging 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed season, which resulted in major crop losses. The latest figures from the crop estimates committee show the 2023/24 summer crop may have fallen as much as 22% from the previous season, to 15.69-million tonnes. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for businesslive.co.za.

It is hard to discuss global agriculture without mentioning China. The country is a dominant player in exports and imports of agricultural products. In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports. Trailing China was the US, Germany, Netherlands, the UK, France and Japan. Similarly, China played a notable role in exports, and it was the fifth-largest agricultural exporter in the world in 2023. The leading countries ahead of China were the US, Brazil, Netherlands, and Germany. Commentary on China trade is under spotlight again following the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) taking place in early September. Some African countries used the opportunity to advocate for deeper trade, especially in agriculture. Click here to listen to full podcast – Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) for August 2024 registered a slight decline to 120.7 points, down marginally from July. Lower prices for sugar, meat, and cereals outweighed increases in vegetable oils and dairy. The FAO Cereal Price Index decreased by 0.5%, driven by falling wheat prices due to strong international competition and increased production forecasts from the U.S. and Argentina. In contrast, maize prices rose due to concerns over heatwaves in Europe and tighter supplies from Ukraine. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 0.8%, mainly due to higher palm oil prices, despite declining soy and sunflower oil prices. Meanwhile, the Dairy Price Index jumped 2.2%, reflecting increased demand for whole milk powder and tight inventories. The Meat Price Index fell 0.7%, primarily due to reduced poultry and pig meat prices. The Sugar Price Index saw a sharp 4.7% drop, driven by improved production forecasts for Thailand and India, despite a late spike in sugar prices due to fires in Brazil. Click here to read full report.

As global populations age, sustaining economic growth hinges on improving productivity, which has slowed significantly over the past two decades. This slowdown, particularly in total factor productivity (the efficiency of turning labour and capital into output), accounts for much of the reduced economic growth since the global financial crisis. Without a resurgence in productivity gains, living standards and social stability are at risk. Solutions include fostering innovation, supporting smaller businesses, and promoting competition. Nobel laureate Michael Spence highlights the role of technologies like AI, while other experts emphasise policy measures such as tax credits and workforce retraining to encourage productivity growth. Ultimately, a productive society should ensure widespread benefits, improving quality of life for all. Click here to read full report. 

Capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies have faced boom-bust cycles influenced by global monetary policies. Despite recent global interest rate hikes, some countries remained resilient, supported by strong policy frameworks and reserves. However, high-risk nations struggled with rising external borrowing costs, leading to a sharp 70% drop in Eurobond issuance in 2022–23, with many experiencing outflows as maturing bonds exceeded new issuances. Countries with robust fundamentals turned to local currency debt, but many were forced to cut investments, slowing economic growth. As global interest rates, particularly from the Federal Reserve, started to ease, Eurobond issuance rebounded in early 2024, with more countries expected to re-enter the market. This trend may lead to a broader recovery in capital flows to emerging and developing economies. Click here to read full article derived from imf.org.

The EU has announced R628-million (€32-million) in grant funding to support the development of South Africa’s nascent green-hydrogen industry, as well as to facilitate net-zero-related investments across Transnet’s rail, port and pipeline operations, including to prepare them for the production and storage of green hydrogen. The grants are additional to the EU’s Just Energy Transition Partnership funding with South Africa and were confirmed by European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson at a briefing in Pretoria on Monday, where she also met South Africa’s Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa and Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau. The financing is being made available by EU development finance institutions in line with a 2013 infrastructure programme agreement with South Africa and will be disbursed in partnership with South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation. The precise mechanism for distribution had not yet been finalised but Simson confirmed that the funding was immediately available to support both initiatives. Click here to read full article derived from engineeringnews.co.za.

Africa’s major agricultural imports largely consist of products for which the continent lacks a revealed comparative advantage (RCA), with notable exceptions being sugars and sugar confectionery and tobacco substitutes. According to the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) Report 2024, the top ten imported product categories make up 81% of Africa’s total agricultural imports. Cereals, animal or vegetable fats and oils, and sugars and sugar confectionery together represent 50% of this total. This illustrates Africa’s challenge in meeting growing domestic demand driven by income increases, demographic changes, and urbanization, given its limited production capacity. The report reads “Africa remains a major partner in world markets, capturing 20 per cent of cereal imports and 14 per cent of sugar and sugar confectionery imports. Oilseeds and oleaginous fruits, which account for 4 per cent of Africa’s agricultural imports bill, have a very rapid growth rate of nearly 18 per cent.” Read full article here.

Long-running citrus dispute could be resolved in the next year, if all goes well. The final process to resolve the dispute between South Africa and the European Union regarding citrus black spot (CBS) and false codling moth (FCM) seems to be gathering momentum. Although sources have admitted that it could take between 12-16 months for a final solution is reached, recent developments suggest that the process is now moving forwards at pace. At the end of July, South Africa requested the establishment of two panels at a meeting of the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to examine what, in South Africa’s view, are unscientific and discriminatory measures placed on citrus imported from South Africa by the EU. At the same time, it was revealed that a significant number of countries have now taken sides, with several significant world players joining South Africa in the dispute. Click here to read full article.

The Southern Cape avocado packing season started last Monday, taking up the baton from the avocado growers in the high-altitude areas of Limpopo whose crop is now tapering off. "As the Western Cape has expanded its avocado hectares, we need to be looking more at exports," says Dr Guy Witney of Great Brak Avos. "It's been a quite remarkable growth here: we've gone from 140ha in 2017 in the Southern Cape to somewhere around 1,400ha of avocados. It's grown very dramatically." Last season's 2,000 tonnes of avocados grown around George and Groot-Brakrivier (Great Brak River) will increase to 2,800 tonnes this year, with another roughly thousand tonnes coming out of the nearby Heidelberg/Swellendam area, he says. For the first time there are sufficient Southern Cape avocados to continue exports into December. Dr Guy Witney is very enthusiastic about the quality of the current crop despite what he calls a very challenging growing season. Read full article here.

South African pears have become a dominant presence in the Indian market, overshadowing international counterparts. This shift has been attributed to their quality and steady availability, as noted by a leading fruit importer in India. During the IFPA Southern Africa conference, Shubha Rawal, head of sourcing at IG International, shared insights on the remarkable performance of South African fruit in India. "In the last five years, what we've seen with South African apples, pears, citrus, it has been amazing," Rawal stated. She emphasized the demand for varieties like Forelles and Vermonts, acknowledging a significant market preference for South African pears over others. The resilience of South African pears against price inflation has been notable, especially in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has altered dietary preferences towards healthier options, including fruits like pears. Rawal pointed out the absence of competition from other regions, praising the year-round supply from South Africa. Read full article here.

Former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter made headlines recently after he said that carbon tax could derail South Africa’s export industries, specifically the fruit and manufacturing sectors. He pointed to Eskom’s continued pursuit of coal, which does not take into account the ample renewable energy the country could provide. As the world clamps down on heavy polluters, many countries are looking at implementing carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs). This seeks to level the playing field between, for example, a French farmer and a South African one. The French farmer’s produce would land on a French supermarket shelf at a price that takes his input costs and a carbon tax into account, since the EU imposes this tax on farmers. Produce imported from South Africa, where there is no carbon tax in place, would take only the input costs into account when pricing an item. Read full article here.

Agriculture Minister, John Steenhuisen, has committed to ensuring that the working conditions of animal health practitioners are improved in South Africa. This comes as the country grapples with a critical shortage of professionals in the essential field, which has far-reaching implications for animal health, biosecurity and food security. Steenhuisen said veterinarians face challenges, including insufficient resources and medicines, inadequate remuneration, and mounting mental health concerns. He emphasised the gravity of the issues and acknowledged the indispensable role played by veterinarians in safeguarding the country's agricultural sector. "Veterinarians are a cornerstone of South Africa's agricultural success, and without addressing the systemic issues they face, we risk jeopardising not only their well-being but the nation’s food security," said Steenhuisen. Read full statement from sanews.gov.za here.

Capital flows to emerging markets have seen volatility, with Eurobond issuance sharply declining due to global monetary tightening. Vulnerable countries, facing high external borrowing costs, reduced Eurobond issuance by 70% in 2022–23, with some nations experiencing net outflows. Eurobonds allow higher-risk economies to access foreign capital but expose them to exchange rate risks. The slowdown in issuance reflected tightening financial conditions and pre-existing economic vulnerabilities. As interest rates in advanced economies rise, borrowing costs for these nations have become prohibitive. However, recent signs of easing global interest rates, including potential Fed rate cuts, suggest a rebound in Eurobond issuance and capital flows to emerging markets in 2024. Countries like Benin and Côte d’Ivoire have already returned to the market. Click here to read full report by the IMF Blog.

Global cotton production is set to rise by 6.2% in the 2024/2025 season, reaching 25.62 million tons. This growth is largely driven by improved weather conditions in the U.S., China, and Brazil. India, though affected by adverse weather, will remain a key contributor. Weather will play a crucial role, with ongoing droughts in the U.S. and delayed monsoons in India affecting yields. Meanwhile, consumption is expected to reach a four-year high, driven by strong demand from China and Vietnam. Despite this demand, global cotton stocks are likely to increase slightly, which may temper price gains. Locally, South African cotton production continues, with 83.3% of tested samples falling within top grades. Smallholder farmers are expected to produce 4,579 lint bales, with production heavily concentrated in Limpopo and Mpumalanga. While irrigation yields are high, dryland yields remain lower, reflecting ongoing challenges in some regions. The Cotlook A-Index price forecast for 2024/25 ranges between 92.00 and 97.00 US cents per pound. Click here to read full report.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Fresh Quarterly, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

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