India, the world's top rice exporter, has disrupted the global rice market by imposing an export ban on milled white rice in July, followed by an August export tax on parboiled rice and the establishment of a minimum export price for basmati rice. This shift has caused global importers to turn to Thailand and Vietnam, resulting in export quotes reaching their highest levels since 2008. The absence of India's white rice from the global market carries more significant repercussions today than in 2008. India's position as the largest exporter, holding approximately 40% of global trade, has led to a sharp increase in rice prices, especially affecting regions heavily reliant on imports, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. Prices were already rising due to strong demand and reduced production in several exporting nations. While prices have surged, they have not yet reached the 2008 levels due to key differences. Unlike 2008, India currently allows the export of parboiled rice with a 20% tax. Moreover, Vietnam, the third-largest exporter, continues exporting this year, unlike their temporary halt in 2008. Additionally, the Philippines is delaying purchases, expecting lower prices, unlike in 2008 when they increased their buying as prices rose. Recent weeks have witnessed a gradual decline in rice prices from their peak. Click here to read full article by USDA. 

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has issued a report calling for greater ambition and accelerated action in addressing climate change. The report summarises 17 key findings from technical deliberations in 2022 and 2023 on the implementation status of the Paris Agreement, emphasising that much more needs to be done in all areas, from mitigating climate change impacts to addressing loss and damage. It highlights existing opportunities and creative solutions to bridge gaps, along with good practices and proposals to accelerate implementation. The report precedes the global stock-take at COP28 in Dubai, where progress toward climate goals will be assessed. Decisive action, including reducing emissions by 43% by 2030, is crucial to honouring the Paris Agreement, and the COP28 Presidency aims to disrupt business as usual and unite for real results. Read full article by UN News here. 

South Africa's government and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) are collaborating on a seminar to attract investors interested in strengthening Eskom's transmission grid. The seminar was announced by Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa during a weekly update on the electricity crisis plan. Ramokgopa clarified that any new Eskom debt must align with the government's R254 billion debt relief package, which comes with stringent conditions. While the Eskom Debt Relief Act doesn't allow the utility to take on new debt, exemptions may be granted by the finance minister. National Treasury noted that network investment can proceed within specified parameters. After the seminar, a submission will be made to the cabinet, possibly leading to the issuance of debt instruments listed on the JSE. The logistics of managing new investment while undergoing the unbundling process are unclear. Once unbundled, the network will be managed by the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA), a subsidiary of Eskom Holdings. The Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill, which outlines the new market structure, has faced delays in parliament. Click here to read full article first published on moneyweb.co.za.

The Portfolio Committee on Trade, Industry and Competition has initiated a period for public feedback on the Companies Amendment Bill and the Companies Second Amendment Bill, with comments accepted until 2 October 2023. These bills follow a previous 2021 version, with some proposals carried over. The primary goals include improving business ease, balancing interests among stakeholders, enhancing share ownership transparency for anti-corruption efforts, and extending the time frame for declaring director delinquency. Beneficial ownership transparency is a focus, with provisions for accessing registers. Certain exemptions apply to private, non-profit, or personal liability companies with lower public interest scores. Agbiz's primary concern, as expressed in its draft comments, centres on remuneration policies and reports, as these bills require listed companies to disclose pay ratios, potentially affecting the board's authority. Public hearings on 17, 18, and 20 October, 2023, will provide a forum for input from Agbiz, BUSA, and other stakeholders, shaping potential amendments to these significant bills. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Head of Legal Intelligence, Annelize Crosby.

In these days of constant negative news about the South African economy, one has to shine a spotlight on any positive information. This week, the agricultural sector offered such optimism. After a sharp contraction of -11,9% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2023, the country’s agricultural gross value added grew by 4,2% in the second quarter. This improvement was based on the robust production conditions for various field crops and horticulture, which weren’t reflected in the first quarter data because of a delayed start to the 2022/23 production season and the base effects. Also worth noting is that persistent load-shedding threatened agricultural production at the start of the season. Still, various interventions to ease the load-shedding burden on farmers, such as load-curtailment, expansion of the diesel rebate to the food value chain and private sector investment in alternative energy sources, supported production conditions. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo first published on mg.co.za.

South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$3.4 billion in the second quarter of this year, up by 0,1% y/y. Despite challenges in key export markets such as the EU in the case of citrus, the products that dominated the export list this quarter were citrus, maize, apples and pears, wine, sugar, soybeans, wool, avocados, pineapples, fruit juices, nuts, and grapes. Importantly, this good export performance was not only a function of price but also improved volumes. The prices of some agricultural products have declined notably from the 2022 levels. The improvement in agricultural exports also partly demonstrates the results of continued collaboration between the industry and Transnet to improve the logistics at the ports. However, more work is needed to improve the efficiencies. The South African agricultural industry has established forums to continuously engage with Transnet and enhance communication about problems at the ports so that the response could be swift to drive the exports of high-value and perishable products. Click here to listen to  Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo and here to read article.

We are now convinced that the relatively more robust agricultural machinery sales of the first half of this year were primarily a tail-end benefit of the past season when large harvests and higher commodity prices boosted grain farmers’ finances. The delivery delays of the orders raised the sales figures for the first half of the year. Over the medium term, the sales will likely remain subdued despite the current 2022/23 solid grain harvest. The recent sales already paint this possible path. For example, South Africa’s August 2023 tractor sales were down (-12% y/y), with 694 units sold. This follows the sharpest annual decline for the year in July (-15,4% y/y). At the same time, the combine harvester sales were flat from August 2022, with 24 units sold. This also comes after a notable decline in July 2023 sales (-11% y/y). While making a call in a few months’ data is not always advisable, our baseline view is that South African farmers have probably slowed agricultural machinery purchases. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo first published on wandilesihlobo.com.

Explore the compelling insights of Wandile Sihlobo's latest book, "A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, the Challenges, the Solutions." Delving into South Africa's agricultural divides, this book offers a fresh perspective on the present and future of the industry. It sheds light on why dualism persists in the democratic era and how we can overcome it. With a focus on domestic and external factors, Sihlobo's book uncovers new risks and opportunities, providing valuable insights for government, the private sector, and anyone interested in South Africa's economic growth. Rooted in real farming experiences, it offers a framework to empower the black farming segment, enhancing competitiveness and food security. To gain a deeper understanding of South Africa's agriculture and its impact on the economy, click here to watch eNCA interview and click here to secure your copy of the book.

Agbiz Grain recently hosted the Grain & Oilseeds Value Chain Symposium, focusing on "BUILDING CERTAINTY – CREATING SUSTAINABILITY." This event brought together key players in the South African grain and oilseeds market. Agbiz Grain members play an important role in the efficient functioning of the market, as they handle and store 70% of production and own 98% of JSE-registered storage sites. The symposium aimed to address the challenges and opportunities facing the industry. It highlighted the sector's value chain challenges in 2023/24. The discussions included topics like sustainability and return on investment in the storage sector, future challenges such as access to stock and price convergence, the importance of traceability and regulatory compliance in grain storage, and strategies to ensure the insurability and financial security of the storage sector. To gain valuable insights from the event, you can click here to watch video recaps of the symposium and click here for more information.

Over the past three decades, grain and oilseed production has almost doubled. The storage sector must ensure that sufficient storage infrastructure is available. As such, the storage sector makes a vital contribution to the grain value chain and ensures that the market functions efficiently. Over the last four years to 2022-23, the five-year average production of grains and oilseeds has increased by 6.9% per year. This indicates a strong increase in existing and new storage capacity use. According to Agbiz Grain, insurance costs for silo infrastructure and stored commodities have seen the largest cost increases. The storage sector, therefore, needs to ensure that it can demonstrate that it is managing risk properly and is insurable. It should be equally important to insurers and financiers that both commercial and on-farm storage facilities comply with legislation and regulations to limit their risk. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Grain General Manager, Wessel Lemmer first published in Landbouweekblad. 

Agbiz Grain Quarterly is a unique magazine featuring distinctive articles and content designed to keep the grain handling and storage industry informed of the latest news and issues of managerial and operational importance. The August issue focusses on the current topic of conversation in the grain industry – traceability. This subject will be front and foremost during the Agbiz Grain Symposium and these articles set the table for the debate and discussion at the symposium. Experts in this issue also address aspects relating to procedures surrounding injuries on duty as well as the latest developments around employment equity regulations. Also in the August issue are articles on the latest procedural requirements for water use licence applications as well as an overview of some new and unique approaches to physical grain trading. We look at losses in the malting barley storage sector and discuss Australia and America's views on grain traceability, along with a local perspective on the same. Download your free version of this exciting publication here. 

The Real Economy Bulletin provides a comprehensive review of quarterly trends and data in the real economy, with a specific focus on the main manufacturing industries and key data presented in Excel format. In the second quarter of 2023, the GDP experienced a 0.6% growth, signalling a promising recovery from the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. This growth was primarily attributed to a 5% increase in investment by private businesses and state-owned enterprises. Notably, this surge in investment was driven by the rapid expansion of off-grid, predominantly renewable energy generation. Despite ongoing challenges such as loadshedding, the second quarter of 2023 demonstrated slight improvements over the previous quarter. This indicates a degree of adaptation among larger companies to the new energy landscape. Investment in off-grid electricity, particularly in renewable technologies, played a pivotal role in this growth, with private investment surging by 5.7%. Although it nearly matched pre-pandemic levels, it still remained below those of 2019. The substantial increase in investment can be largely attributed to the shift towards off-grid electricity solutions in response to the challenges of loadshedding. These investments hold the promise of delivering not only more reliable and cleaner energy but also potentially reducing costs in the long term, offering a glimmer of hope for a sustainable economic recovery. Click here to read full article by the Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies.

Global olive oil prices have surged to over $8,900/ton due to off-year growing cycles and dry Mediterranean weather, with August prices up 130% year-on-year, exceeding the 1996 record. Concerns over supplies in Spain, a major exporter, are driving prices higher as the market seeks to ration resources toward the end of the marketing year. Olive oil consumption is expected to remain flat or decrease in most countries for 2022/23, except for Turkey, which has banned bulk exports to secure domestic supplies. Global olive oil production for 2022/23 has been revised down to 2.5 million tons, a 25% drop from the previous year and the 5-year average, with concerns for 2023/24 exacerbated by hot and dry Mediterranean conditions. Despite the price hike tempering demand, consumer and cultural preferences for olive oil make substitution challenging. Prices are likely to remain elevated into 2023/24, with less price-sensitive buyers, like the U.S., maintaining their preference for olive oil, increasing imports to 35-37% in 2023/24. Click here to read full report by USDA.

The 2023 World Trade Report by the WTO advocates for "re-globalization" in response to emerging trade fragmentation. It highlights the benefits of broader economic integration, emphasising its role in enhancing security, inclusivity, and environmental sustainability. The report warns that the current open and predictable global economy is under threat. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasises the need to strengthen the trading system rather than abandon it. Chief Economist Ralph Ossa stresses that embracing trade is vital to addressing pressing global challenges. While geopolitical tensions are affecting trade flows, the report contends that international trade is resilient, supported by digital services trade, environmental goods trade, and global value chains. It suggests that "re-globalisation" can offer better solutions to security, inclusiveness, and environmental sustainability compared to fragmentation. The report underscores the link between trade openness and reduced conflict, poverty reduction, and environmental progress. It advocates for more trade and cooperation to address contemporary global challenges, with a reformed WTO playing a central role. Click here to read full article by wto.org.

South Africa's major trade unions, including Saftu and Cosatu, are calling for strikes in protest of proposed budget cuts by the National Treasury, set to be announced in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). Union leaders argue that these cuts would harm workers and the poor, attributing the government's financial difficulties to a lack of investment in infrastructure. Saftu's general secretary, Zwelinzima Vavi, criticised the government and private sector for being on an "investment strike," with the economy stagnating at just 14% of GDP investment. Cosatu's president, Zingiswa Losi, rejected austerity budget cuts and called them reckless. South Africa's fiscal deficit for 2023 is expected to be higher than initially predicted, between 6% and 6.5% of GDP. While the government faces resistance to these spending cuts, President Cyril Ramaphosa has stated that cutting spending may not be the sole solution to the country's financial problems. Economists suggest that the options to address South Africa's debt crisis include high economic growth, inflation, drastic reductions in government spending, or tax increases. However, with limited options and a narrow tax base, increasing taxes could have adverse effects. Click here to read full article first published on businesstech.co.za.

The South African supply chain faces significant hurdles, with commercial ports handling just 6,646 containers daily due to weather issues, equipment problems, and congestion. Internationally, the global economy shifts toward a survival-of-the-fittest trade approach, leading to a decline in filed trade disputes and an increase in unilateral measures, including illegal tariffs by the US and China. The maritime industry experiences unstable freight rates despite increased container capacity. Air cargo to and from South Africa shows recovery, but international air cargo demand remains resilient. Regional cross-border road freight sees changes in queue and transit times. Equipment challenges at South African SOEs underscore the need for revitalisation in the rail and logistics sector. This update highlights the importance of effective international trade governance and infrastructure development to tackle challenges in the South African supply chain amid global trade tensions. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

The Citrus Growers’ Association of South Africa (CGA) and the Fresh Produce Exporters’ Forum (FPEF) have concluded the 2023 orange exports to Europe, with the final inspection day set for September 15th. This timing aligns with the natural end of the South African citrus season in Europe and allows approved oranges to reach European destinations. The announcement signals cooperation with European citrus producers, particularly in Spain, as South Africa passes the citrus demand to the northern hemisphere due to exceptional global demand for South African citrus. Despite challenges like load shedding and logistical strains, the CGA and FPEF thank growers and industry stakeholders for their dedication, supporting 140,000 livelihoods, and remain committed to collaboration for local growers' resilience. Click here to read full statement by Deon Joubert.

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.