Central banks have made substantial progress in the fight against inflation. In July 2022, the median inflation rate worldwide was 9.4 percent, the highest since 2008. By last month, it had been whittled down to 2.9 percent. This decline in inflation has been broad-based: in 90 percent of countries it is now lower than in July 2022. Still, the war is yet to be won. Global inflation is 0.7 percentage points higher than it was on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. In July 2022, inflation was above target ranges in all countries with inflation-targeting central banks. The share is much lower now, but inflation still exceeds target ranges in more than 40 percent of these countries. In short, central banks in major economies may have good reasons to begin cutting interest rates in the coming months. However, they are unlikely to sharply reduce rates until they are convinced inflation is firmly on a path back to the target ranges. Click here to read full article derived from blogs.worldbank.org.

India, a major global grain supplier, has significantly reduced its exports due to rising domestic demand and restrictive government policies. From 2020/21 to 2023/24, exports of corn, rice, and wheat have drastically declined—corn by 86%, rice by 20%, and wheat by 90%. This decrease marks a substantial shift, with India potentially losing its status as a net corn exporter for the first time in over a century. The rise in domestic corn consumption, driven by increased ethanol production and poultry feed demand, combined with lower global corn prices, has led to imports for the first time since 2019/20. Similarly, India's rice export ban and export taxes have disrupted global markets, leading to higher prices and shifts to alternative suppliers like Vietnam and Thailand. The wheat export ban, imposed in May 2022 to control prices and stabilise domestic stocks, has resulted in negligible wheat exports and dwindling ending stocks. Click here to read full Grain: World Markets and Trade by the USDA.

The Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz) has decried Botswana’s import bans on SA fruits and vegetables, arguing that the restrictions are not only unsustainable but also detrimental to political and economic relations between the two countries. “As the two parties are both members of a customs union, a ban on trade introduces instability as it undermines the concept of borderless trade in a customs union — that is, no internal tariff or nontariff barriers between members. “It is also a commercial shock to existing exports and importers of citrus. As the two sides cannot escape each other, a solution must be found,” said Wolfe Logan Braude, manager of Agbiz Fruit at Agbiz. Botswana’s temporary ban on orange imports, effective from June 17 to August 31, is part of a broader strategy to boost its local agriculture and achieve food self-sufficiency. The measures include extended restrictions on various fresh produce imports until 2025. Click here to read full article derived from businesslive.co.za. Click here to listen to interview with Stephen Grootes on the same topic.

The Essential Services Commission is doing an investigation into whether certain services should be declared essential services. These include the following border management and port services: Border management services: agricultural specialized functions, environmental specialized functions, immigration specialized functions and law. Enforcement and access control by the Border Guards and support services providing direct support to the above specialized functions. Port services: Marine services; cargo services; security services at ports. An essential service is defined in the Labour Relations Act as being a service, the interruption of which would endanger the life, personal safety or health of the whole or any part of the population. Persons employed in essential services are prohibited from participating in strikes. Click here to read full report by Agbiz Head: Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby.

As the Government of National Unity (GNU) begins with its programme under the various ministries, the growth and competitiveness of the agriculture sector has come under the spotlight. In recent years, the sector has faced numerous challenges. These include animal disease outbreaks, a problem that has laid bare the need for a comprehensive review of South Africa’s biosecurity strategy. Equally, efficiency at the ports remains important as the sector is export oriented and must remain competitive in the various markets that South Africa enjoys access into. Also more important is the continuous effort by the South African authorities and the organized agriculture to work on retaining the various export markets, and further work on access the new ones. Moreover, the discomforts with the likes of neighbouring Botswana about its protectionist approach to agricultural trade require a careful and yet firm approach that emphasizes regional co-existence and shared prosperity while calling out the unfair trade practices. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo.

The effects of the recent El Niño-induced mid-summer drought are starting to show in South Africa's agricultural jobs data. For example, the figures released by Statistics South Africa today show that employment in primary agriculture was down 5% quarter-on-quarter to 896k in the second quarter of 2024. From an annual basis perspective, the performance is also weak, although up 0,2% from the second quart of 2023. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 896k people remains well above the long-term jobs of 799k and generally reflects the harsh summer season we are leaving behind. Some subsectors showing a decline in employment include field crops, livestock, and forestry. The job performance in these subsectors is unsurprising as the mid-summer drought has notably impacted them, specifically field crops. Moreover, the livestock industry faces relatively higher feed costs and lingering animal disease, which all explain these subdued job data in the subsector. Click here to read full data response by Wandile Sihlobo.

The Karoo Lamb that we loaded is now being slaughtered at the abattoir. There it will be classified according to the meat regulations. It may be an A1, A2, A3 or A6 lamb — depending on the fat quality, among other attributes of the meat. In addition, for Karoo Lamb, the abattoir must verify that the lamb is from a registered farm in the Karoo (in alignment with the Karoo Lamb Geographical Indication regulations published under the Agricultural Products Standards Act). In the agricultural industry, there are also many private standards that retailers and processors have introduced which must be paid for by private role-players. These include certified organic, natural free range and environmentally friendly. Most of the general standards and classifications specified for different products under the Agricultural Products Standards Act, including the new regulations for Karoo Lamb, are in the public interest. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for dailymaverick.co.za.

Following a few years of robust sales, South Africa's agricultural machinery industry is normalizing. Thus, the sales have been relatively weak since the start of this year. The replacement rate of new machinary was bound to slow, even temporarily. The latest data is no different. For example, tractor sales were down 15% year-on-year in July, with 563 units sold. The combine harvester sales are down 75% year-on-year, with eight units sold. The persistent decline in sales since the start of the year is unsurprising and alighted with our expectations. We have long anticipated that there would be some correction after a long period of strong tractors and combine harvesters sales. The sales of the past few years were a function of both years of ample grain and oilseed harvest that coincided with high commodity prices and boosted farmers' incomes. Click here to read full data response by Wandile Sihlobo.

Over the weekend, when we drove across the Swartland region of the Western Cape, one important aspect we noticed was the encouraging winter wheat crop. The Western Cape has received excessive rain recently, damaging infrastructure in various regions of the province. In the wheat fields, there are areas where pools of water are visible from major roads. Still, vast sections of the crop look promising.  A few exchanges with agribusiness leaders in the area suggested that the southern regions of Swartland might well be too wet for the wheat but the northern areas should do well. We will get a better view of the wheat regions when we visit the province again in the coming months. Notably, the question of what this means for national wheat production prospects will also be evident in the next few months. South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee will release the area-planted estimate and first production forecast for this season’s wheat crop on 28 August. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo. 

The EU says it is up to SA to show why the bloc, which is the country’s largest trading partner, should lift a decade-long ban on imports of SA’s red meat. EU ambassador to SA Sandra Kramer told Business Day the EU was open to SA products that met the required standards. “The EU is always willing to talk and engage. The ball on this is, however, in SA’s court and we are awaiting their feedback. Authorisations for exporting red meat to the EU can only be granted based on guarantees provided by the SA authorities. These will then need to be verified by EU experts, which will include an audit on the spot. We look forward to progress on this matter soonest,” said Kramer. Despite the agricultural trade surplus growing in 2024, SA’s livestock industry — which, including poultry, accounts for nearly half (48%) of agricultural gross value added — stands to lose out on high-value export markets if it fails to address key biosecurity concerns about animal diseases. Click here to read full article derived from businesslive.co.za. 

The Karoo Winter Wool Festival, held annually in June in Middelburg, the Karoo region of the Eastern Cape, is one of the few areas where one can appreciate the sheep industry's entire value chain. The hive of activities in this festival is usually marked by exhibitions of sheep shearing, spinning, weaving, dyeing, felting, and all other fibre crafts of the clothing industry. Fashion shows are typically galore, showcasing a range of clothing made of wool, yet another testament to South Africa's economic vibrancy. There is usually also leather material products on display in various stands, with craftsmen readily explaining the origins of the material and the design of clothes. At lunch, one could find nourishing mutton and lamb products from the Karoo and various regions of the country. The Karoo Winter Wool Festival exemplify the strength of the agritourism industry in South Africa. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo here.

I joined farmers to see how they market their Karoo products. First, we walked about 5km or so in the morning, collecting a herd of sheep from various camps – through the rocky veld and in the chilly wind of the Karoo morning. We finally got them to the kraal for sorting and selection. The next task was to wean the lambs from their mothers and to keep the young females for continuous reproduction. The males were ready for the market. In the farmers’ quest to operate sustainably and not expose the fragile grazing veld to too many sheep, given the low rainfall season, some lambs are taken to the feedlot to prepare them for an unknown meat market. However, some that have grown well in the veld are transported to the abattoir for slaughter. Some are now loaded onto the truck to the abattoir. They will be slaughtered and marketed as true Karoo lamb. They were born and raised on a registered Karoo farm without feeding or any other intervention. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Having spent a week in the Karoo among farmers, attending meetings and interacting with market agents, it would be fair to say this region is one of the most in need of agritourism promotion. The region has much to offer – great cuisine, landscapes, and history. However, agritourism would also be a lifeline for some regions that previously relied on railway activities. There is now reduced economic activity. Thus, unemployment is rife, leaving some towns exposed to potential instability. In the case of farmers, they do their part and create employment in their regions. Therefore, proper marketing of the unique and premium Karoo Lamb that most produce would bring the much-needed revenue, which would be reinvested in the farms, and ultimately, increased economic activity in the regions and job creation. Read full LETTERS FROM THE KAROO OP-ED by Wandile Sihlobo here and Read Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.

While we are still at the start of the 2024/25 global grain and oilseed production season, with the Southern Hemisphere yet to plant in about two months, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a decent harvest. For example, in its latest update, the IGC placed the 2024/25 global grain and oilseed production forecast at 2,3 billion tons, up slightly from the previous season. The stocks are expected to be healthy – around 582 million tons – although slightly lower than the 2023/24 season because of the expected increase in the industrial use of grains. A closer look at the figures shows that the IGC forecasts a 1% year-on-year (y/y) increase in the 2024/25 global rice production to 528 million tons. This is based on anticipated large crops in all the major rice-producing regions. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for farmersweekly.co.za.

On August 10, we drove across the Swartland region of the Western Cape from the Karoo side of the Northern Cape. As we entered the Western Cape, I couldn't miss the excellent sight of the wheat fields from a distance. And yes, I appreciate that the Western Cape has received excessive rain recently; the picture certainly is not all rosy. Some fields have puddles of water, which may undermine the crop's growth potential. Our members in the area tell me that the southern regions of Swartland may be too wet, and the northern regions should do well. South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee will release the area planted estimate and first production forecast for this season's crop on August 28. We will know more about the production prospects then. Click here to listen to full podcast – Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa's unique free market environment ensures food security for our citizens. The timely availability of accurate crop quality and market information on supply and demand determines cash and futures prices for grains and oilseeds on the JSE. This information is provided by institutions such as SAGL, SAGIS, the National Crop Estimate Committee and the Supply and Demand Estimates Committee of the NAMC. This article focuses on the pre-deregulation period and highlights the fact that we need to learn from history and appreciate what we have. We must give sufficient support to the institutions, including the JSE AMD, which are the pillars of our deregulated and free grain and oilseed market. Click here to read full article titled ‘Waardeer die vrye mark!’ for Landbouweekblad by Agbiz Grain General Manager Wessel Lemmer.

Agbiz Grain Quarterly is a digital magazine dedicated to the South African grain handling and storage sector. The August 2024 issue features comprehensive feedback from the recent Agbiz Congress, including key takeaways and insightful discussions led by industry leaders. It also delves into important topics such as the impact of environmental regulations on grain storage, current sea freight rates, and industry perspectives on emissions targets. This edition includes an in-depth look at several crucial issues, including the industry's call for a standard operating procedure for grain and oilseed inspections. Highlights also feature a French co-operative’s exploration of South African grain industry solutions, the need for logistical reform at Transnet, and the influence of sea freight rates on raw material importation. Additional articles cover emissions targets, the debate over white wheat, weed seed contamination risks, the effect of split kernels in barley on profit margins, and essential environmental law knowledge for SHEQ practitioners. Click here to read magazine.

Appointed as the youngest and first female chairperson of the Land Bank in late 2021, Bloemfontein-born Thabi Nkosi is leading a transformative journey for one of the country’s most pivotal financial institutions. Although born in Bloemfontein, Nkosi spent her formative years in Pretoria, where she developed an interest in agricultural economics during university. “My first formal exposure to agriculture was at university, where the faculty at the University of Pretoria, particularly Professor Johann Kirsten, painted such an exciting picture of agricultural economics.” Her career began at the Agricultural Business Chamber, now known as Agbiz, during her final year at university. Thereafter, she gained diverse experience across various roles, including positions at the Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy, the South African Sugar Association, and AgriSA. Click here to read full article derived from ofm.co.za.

Botswana's recent ban on South African fruit and vegetable imports, including citrus, has drawn criticism from the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz). Agbiz warns that the restrictions not only disrupt trade, affecting less than 0.5% of SA's citrus exports but also strain political and economic ties between the two nations. Botswana has announced a temporary ban on orange imports, effective from June 17 until August 31. According to the government of Botswana, this move is part of a larger strategy aimed at strengthening local agriculture and achieving food self-sufficiency. Additionally, Botswana has extended restrictions on various fresh produce imports, with some measures in place until 2025. for more on this Bongiwe Zwane spoke to CEO of Agbiz Theo Boshoff. Click here to listen to full interview.

OECD labour markets remain tight, with total employment higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic and the OECD unemployment rate close to its lowest level since at least 2001. Jobs growth has slowed, however, and real wages have recovered to pre-2020 levels in only 19 of the 35 OECD countries with available data, despite some catching up in the past quarters. Gender employment participation gaps are narrowing, with female employment up by about 5% in May this year from December 2019, compared with 3% for men. The OECD Employment Outlook 2024 estimates that OECD-wide employment, which reached 662 million in May 2024 – up by about 25% since 2000 – is expected to grow at around 0.7% per annum over 2024-25. The OECD-wide unemployment rate stood at 4.9% in May 2024, and is projected to inch up slightly. It was 0.2 percentage points higher for women than for men. Real wages have been catching up on the lost ground in 2022 and the first part of 2023. Click here to read full OECD employment outlook 2024.

SA’s new international relations & co-operation minister, Ronald Lamola, told a media briefing on Monday that when he speaks in New York, he should be singing exactly the same song as his colleague Parks Tau, the new trade, industry & competition minister. This is an encouraging start. Foreign policy should be economic policy. Foreign ministers and their departments should have a clear focus on promoting trade and investment to support economic growth. Countries such as Australia have a single ministry of foreign affairs and trade for exactly this reason. In SA by contrast it’s often not clear whether our economic interests and our foreign policy stance are aligned. Indeed, some of SA’s foreign policy positions have risked severe damage to its economy. The clear indication from Lamola’s department that it intends to integrate foreign policy with SA’s imperative to attract foreign direct investment and to grow and create jobs is therefore most welcome. Click here to read full editorial derived from Business Day.

As South Africa prepares to host the 620 and 820 talks, the primary goal of agribusiness should be to drive those policy measures that can level the playing field and increase competition between nations. South Africa is a small, open economy. From a gross domestic product (GDP) point of view, we are the fortieth-largest economy in the world and the 32nd-biggest agriculture sector. We can hardly be called an economic powerhouse but South Africa is still very well positioned in the international arena to punch above its weight. From an economic point of view, South Africa supplies the rest of the world with the scarce and critical minerals needed for the just transition to a low-carbon economy. Our agriculture sector is counter-seasonal, meaning that we can provide the Northern Hemisphere with agricultural products outside of its season. Click here to read full article by Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff for farmersweekly.co.za.

Transnet Port Terminals (TPT) has confirmed that its ICT team has initiated an investigation into the alleged use of artificial intelligence (AI) to secure truck bookings at the Durban Container Terminal, where cargo delays are placing immense strain on the harbour carriers. Chief executive of Durban Terminals, Earle Peters, has said: “We shouldn't rule out intelligent digital solutions by the industry.” His comments come after a report over the past weekend that claimed that AI had been used to generate 300 slots in two minutes to secure land-side container movement bookings. This is not the first time that this claim has been made, as harbour carriers continue to complain about the inadequacy of the system, irregular connectivity and internal IT failures, and the alleged abuse by certain operators making block bookings and often failing to redeem slots. Click here to read full article derived from freightnews.co.za.

The supply of lemons from South Africa and Argentina, the leading Southern Hemisphere growing countries this time of the year, is lower. This is mainly due to adverse weather and a lot of rain and wind that impacted the lemon harvests. As South Africa's lemons season is starting to come to an end the crop estimate was again revised downward. About 37.9 million 15kg cartons of lemons was projected, it has been reduced to 33.9 million cartons, compared to 35.6 million cartons last year from Southern Africa. The Sundays River Valley is down by almost 1 million cartons due to strong winds, while the Western Cape town of Citrusdal is down by 100,000 cartons due to flooding. The lemon season in Argentina was impacted by rain and a high disease burden with phytosanitary issues, causing them to not send a lot of fruit to Europe. Click here to read full overview by freshplaza.com.

This update provides a comprehensive overview of South Africa's logistics network and international trade status. Handling of containers remained low at an average of 7,370 per day, with delays caused by adverse weather, equipment issues, and system challenges across major ports. Notable disruptions occurred in Cape Town, Durban, and Richards Bay, with additional delays from maintenance on the Durban-Reef line. Globally, container throughput decreased in June, but annual growth is strong, with varying regional impacts on trade. South Africa's share of Sub-Saharan African trade has declined, while air cargo volumes show mixed results: an increase in inbound cargo but a decrease in outbound. Maritime constraints and e-commerce are driving air cargo growth. Regional road freight times have increased, particularly at South African borders. Despite improvements, the industry faces challenges that require investment in infrastructure, digitalisation, and policy reform to enhance its global trade position. Click here to read the full BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Fresh Quarterly, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

The Agbiz Congress 2024, held from 5 – 7 June at Sun City, offered a pivotal platform for reflections on domestic and global challenges impacting businesses within the agricultural sector. With the main theme "Sustaining Growth in a Changing Global Landscape," the Congress delved into pressing issues ranging from political uncertainty to emerging geopolitical tensions and ways to expand agricultural markets. Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of Agbiz, remarked, "The selection of speakers and subject focus of various sessions mirrored the challenges of the day, including political uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, a desire to expand agricultural markets, economic conditions, and ways of improving the efficiency of network industries." "The Agbiz Congress has become a key event in the agricultural calendar," stated Theo Boshoff, CEO of Agbiz. "Under the theme 'Sustaining Growth in a Changing Global Landscape,' delegates gained critical insights into navigating emerging trends such as geopolitical uncertainty and trade protectionism, as well as unlocking sustainable finance and addressing activist campaigns." Click here to read full report by Agbiz Communication Officer Temba Msiza. Click here to access all images from congress.

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.