Notable shifts have occurred in South African politics regarding coalitions and the strengthening of the middle ground. Recent developments include the comprehensive cooperation agreement between the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) for local government coalitions in KwaZulu-Natal. This agreement focuses on values, priorities, and commitment to effective governance. Additionally, the ANC Veterans League expressed clear opposition to coalitions with the EFF, while the ANC signaled openness to a 'grand coalition' with the DA at the local government level. The ongoing debate about implementing minimum thresholds for party representation in government further shapes political dynamics, but practical agreements between major parties could help stabilise local governance. Read full piece by Political and Trend Analyst JP Landman here.

Eastern African countries, including Djibouti, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, exhibit varying levels of wheat consumption and production. While Djibouti and Somalia rely solely on imports to fulfill wheat demand, Kenya and Sudan heavily rely on imports (86% and 77% respectively). Ethiopia stands out as it met 82% of its wheat consumption needs through domestic production in 2022. Import reliance on countries like Russia and Ukraine impacts wheat availability and prices, while initiatives like the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) influenced imports. The BSGI suspension in July 2022 temporarily elevated international wheat prices, but they subsequently decreased. The favourable 2023 production outlook in major wheat producers and existing stocks may mitigate the BSGI halt, although uncertainties like the forecasted El Niño event could impact production and prices in the long term. Click here to read full article first published on reliefweb.int. 

The international cotton industry for the 2022/2023 season witnessed a production of 24.68 million tonnes of cotton lint, a 2% decrease from the previous season, while global cotton demand plummeted to 23.88 million tonnes, marking a significant 7.55% drop. Import and export trade figures also saw declines of 12.13% and 13.34%, respectively. Contributing factors included Pakistan's crop damage due to flooding and severe drought in the major cotton-growing region of the United States, resulting in a combined loss of 1.1 million tonnes of cotton. Geopolitical complexities and recession fears further hindered performance. Developed nations' central banks managed to control inflation through interest rate hikes, although consumer sentiment dipped, affecting cotton-related spending and trade. Despite optimistic projections for the upcoming season, challenges in reaching production targets persist, driven by low consumer confidence and decreased demand for cotton goods. Anticipated trade figures for the next season are expected to decline from their reported increase. The average price for the 2022/23 season was 101.58 US cents per pound, with China accounting for a significant portion of global consumption. Click here to read the full Cotton Market Report July 2023. 

The Spanish citrus interprofessional organisation, Intercitrus, is urging the European Commission to establish a centralised system for verifying that South African citrus exporters adhere to cold treatment requirements before shipping to the European Union (EU). The group also calls for extending cold treatment regulations to encompass all citrus varieties, including mandarins and grapefruit. Intercitrus' call comes amidst tensions between Spanish and South African citrus producers due to interceptions of shipments containing Citrus Black Spot and false codling moth. Intercitrus suggests measures such as specifying European port entry before consignments depart South Africa and utilising temperature probes in containers, with readings logged on an EU-run platform for monitoring by plant health authorities. Click here to read full article first published on fruitnet.com.

The Tobacco and Electronic Delivery Systems Bill, released for public comment on June 21, 2023, aims to regulate smoking, the sale, and advertising of tobacco products and electronic delivery systems, packaging standards, and other aspects of the tobacco industry. The proposed amendments include eliminating designated smoking areas, banning tobacco product displays, and enforcing plain packaging requirements. The Bill grants the Minister of Health extensive regulatory powers over tobacco products. Agbiz, in its submission to the Health Committee on 3 August, highlighted the importance of the tobacco value chain to South African families and communities. The submission raised concerns about the lack of comprehensive engagement during the consultation process and emphasised the industry's contribution to employment, the economy, and tax revenue. Agbiz also expressed reservations about specific clauses in the Bill, noting the potential severe impact on the tobacco, agricultural, and retail sectors. Read full article by Agbiz Legal Intelligence Manager Annelize Crosby here.

One set of the critical data releases I have been closely following is South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales. This data has, in the past six months, continued to surprise me, painting an optimistic picture, which was the opposite of what I had expected. Admittedly, South Africa’s relatively more robust agricultural machinery sales of the first half of this year are a tail-end benefit of the previous season, when large harvests and higher commodity prices boosted grain farmers’ finances. Thus, I suspect that the delivery delays of the orders boosted the sales report for recent months. What was aligned with my general view were the July 2023 tractor sales, which showed the sharpest annual decline this year, down 15.4% year-on-year, with 660 units sold. The combine harvester sales were down by 11% year-on-year, with 32 units sold. Still, one will have to watch the sales of the next few months to understand whether we are now in a downturn in machinery sales or there will still be a continuation of the past few months of delayed orders.  Read full article by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo, first published on mg.co.za here.

South Africa's agricultural pursuits in BRICS coexist with established export markets. In 2022, a record $12.8 billion in exports was achieved, with Africa (37%), Asia (27%), and the EU (19%) leading. Notable exports included maize, wine, citrus, nuts, and wool. With expanding production, BRICS gains importance alongside priority markets like China, South Korea, and the USA. BRIC(S) accounted for 8% of exports, China being the top player. Advocating for lower import tariffs in BRICS, South Africa balances existing relationships while targeting growth in various markets. Government departments emphasize widening export horizons, supporting domestic production. The agricultural sector's international engagement aligns strategic expansion with established trade. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

We spent most of July on the road, engaging with Agbiz members and sector role-players in various regions of the country. The feedback about the near-term outlook was reasonably positive in all our engagements, with many attributing their optimism to the favourable 2022/23 summer crop and 2023/24 winter crop seasons. The feedback from the horticulture and wine industries also remained encouraging as various stakeholders forecast growth and expansion prospects in the coming years. The outlook was less optimistic when we engaged the livestock and poultry industries that struggled with higher feed costs and persistent animal disease outbreaks. Beyond this, what all meetings agreed on was that the persistent load-shedding, rising protectionism in key export markets, rising interest rates, intensified geopolitical tensions, ongoing weakness of municipality service delivery and network industries (water, rail and ports) and deterioration of rural roads remain a significant threat to the sustainability of their businesses.   Click here to listen to full Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

Agbiz Grain Quarterly is a unique magazine featuring distinctive articles and content designed to keep the grain handling and storage industry informed of the latest news and issues of managerial and operational importance. The August issue focusses on the current topic of conversation in the grain industry – traceability. This subject will be front and foremost during the Agbiz Grain Symposium and these articles set the table for the debate and discussion at the symposium. Experts in this issue also address aspects relating to procedures surrounding injuries on duty as well as the latest developments around employment equity regulations. Also in the August issue are articles on the latest procedural requirements for water use licence applications as well as an overview of some new and unique approaches to physical grain trading. We look at losses in the malting barley storage sector and discuss Australia and America's views on grain traceability, along with a local perspective on the same. Download your free version of this exciting publication here. 

Agbiz Grain will hold its symposium from 5 to 8 September 2023 daily from 09:00 - 12:00. Building certainty, creating sustainability" is the symposium's theme. The symposium will include panel discussions on profitability and investment priorities, supporting a world-class agricultural derivatives market, traceability of grains and oilseeds to meet consumer food safety concerns, and ensuring the insurability of the sector. Click here to register.

South Africa is poised to achieve a milestone in rapeseed production during the 2023/24 marketing year, with an anticipated record crop of 220,000 metric tons. Over the past two decades, rapeseed cultivation in the country has surged sevenfold since its introduction in the late 1990s. Favourable conditions and consistent yield growth from advanced cultivars have bolstered the expansion of rapeseed production, driven by robust demand due to rising vegetable oil prices. The nation's increased rapeseed cultivation led to exports as local processing capacity remains constrained. The planting area for rapeseed has expanded by 4% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 128,100 hectares. Primarily grown during South Africa's winter months, rapeseed has become a vital component of the country's agricultural landscape, particularly in the Western Cape province. Read full Report on Surging Rapeseed Production by the Global Agricultural Information Network here. 

Suhanra Conradie, representing Summer Citrus from South Africa, reports that the country's citrus export estimates to the US for this season are at 99% of initial projections. These figures are meticulously shared with all stakeholders in the supply chain and updated weekly. By week 31, 70% of the planned program has been packed and almost 60% of the product has been shipped. The shipment method includes both conventional and container vessels, with a 50-50 volume split into the Port of Philadelphia. The exported fruit assortment consists mainly of oranges (46%) and Easy Peelers (47%), along with Star Ruby grapefruit. Challenges, such as excessive rainfall and taxi strikes, have affected productivity but haven't dampened the overall optimism for a successful season. Click here to read full article first published on freshplaza.com.

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) released its 149th update, which provides a comprehensive view of South Africa's supply chain and international trade status. Commercial ports managed an average of 8,126 containers daily, slightly below predictions but indicating a positive uptick. Port operations faced adversities including adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, strikes, and congestion. The Port of Cape Town was impacted by strike actions, while Eastern Cape ports dealt with early-week adverse weather. Port of Durban experienced congestion with over 24,000 TEUs anchored and helicopter service disruptions. South Africa's rapeseed production surged, poised for a record 220,000 MT in 2023/24. Rail and road networks faced challenges, including cable theft and border crossing times. Amidst these challenges, efforts are required to restore efficiency to the logistics network, crucial for economic growth and development. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.