Global growth has decelerated in the past decade, with the post-pandemic recovery losing momentum. High-income economies saw 1.4% annual GDP growth, and while total global GDP exceeds pre-pandemic levels, growth rates in 2023 remain below 4% across all income groups. The new Future of Growth Framework prioritises growth quality, emphasising innovativeness, inclusiveness, sustainability, and resilience. The world economy is halfway towards fully achieving these growth aspects, revealing disparities among countries. The framework exposes diverging digitalization rates, escalating inequality, and the imperative for widespread access to basic services to foster inclusive and sustainable growth. Differences across income groups underscore the correlation between innovation, income levels, and inclusion outcomes. Sustainability efforts face challenges in translating institutional commitments into systemic emissions reduction. Click here to read the full Future of Growth Report 2024.

Trade routes for delicate fruits, including South African stonefruit, grapes, and summer pears, are disrupted as vessels avoid Red Sea ports due to geopolitical tensions. While some exporters navigate through Red Sea waters with increased risks and premiums, others opt for the Persian Gulf's Dammam port, raising doubts about its capacity to handle the increased volumes. The situation, impacting South Africa's exports to Saudi Arabia and Jordan, results in extended transit times and potential oversupply concerns. Amid these challenges, the country's pro-Palestinian stance is noted to be gaining favour in the Arab world. Despite the disruptions, a shipping agent sees a silver lining for South Africa in the form of reduced competition from India and Chile in the European and Middle Eastern markets, where current fruit volumes are described as fantastic with high-quality grapes. Click here to read the full article.

Egypt celebrates a significant surge in fresh table grape exports to EU countries in 2023, setting a historical record despite controversies surrounding the illegal use of protected grape varieties. From January to October 2023, Egypt exported over 70 thousand tonnes of fresh table grapes to the EU, marking a more than one-third increase from the entire calendar year of 2022. June played a pivotal role in achieving the record volume, with Egyptian exporters boosting sales by 50% compared to the previous year. Notably, Egypt expanded its export volumes to major EU markets, including the Netherlands, Germany, Slovenia, Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic, and Austria. Despite scandals, Egypt's success underscores its position as a key grape supplier to the world's largest importer of fresh table grapes. Egypt accomplished a remarkable increase in fresh table grape exports to EU countries in 2023, reaching over 70 thousand tonnes from January to October. This achievement surpassed the average of the previous five years by 37% and marked a more than one-third increase from the entire calendar year of 2022. The record volume was primarily driven by a 50% boost in sales during June, while other months of the main export season also contributed significantly. Despite scandals related to the illegal use of protected grape varieties, Egypt expanded its export volumes to major EU markets, including the Netherlands, Germany, Slovenia, Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic, and Austria. Egypt's success highlights its pivotal role as a key grape supplier to the world's largest importer of fresh table grapes. Click here to read full article by freshplaza.com.

President Cyril Ramaphosa, on 17 January 2024, chaired a meeting of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC) to discuss current economic developments and measures to support economic growth and job creation. Members of PEAC commended the progress made in advancing economic reform, including in the energy, transport, and telecommunications sectors, as well as in rebuilding state institutions that were weakened by state capture. The recently released results of Census 2022 show that the quality of life has improved for millions of South Africans since the previous census, including through expanded access to education, water, electricity, housing, and other basic services. Despite the progress made in putting in place fiscally, socially and environmentally sound economic policies, PEAC noted that significant challenges remain. In its assessment of the current economic environment, PEAC highlighted fiscal risks, the poor performance of state-owned enterprises, ongoing load shedding, historical underinvestment in infrastructure, and rising levels of crime as the most urgent obstacles to growth. Click here to read full article by The Presidency.

The National Water Amendment Bill was published for public comment on 17 November 2023. Originally, the due date for written submissions was 16 January 2023. This has now been extended to the 1st of March 2024. Agbiz submitted its comments on 15 January 2024. In its submission, Agbiz points to the importance of irrigation and alludes to the fact that many of the commodity associations affiliated with Agbiz represent industries that rely on irrigation to produce high-value, irrigated crops for the domestic and export markets. Agribusiness members also have a substantial interest in water rights, as they either supply irrigation farmers with inputs and equipment or provide finance for these enterprises. Agbiz points out the importance of the proposed amendments aligning with the aims of the National Development Plan as well as the Agriculture and Agro-processing Masterplan. Click here to read the full report by Agbiz Head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby.

South Africa’s field crop harvest was excellent in the 2022-23 season. For example, the maize harvest amounted to 16.4 million, 6% higher than the 2021-22 season’s harvest and the second-largest harvest on record. Soybean harvest is at a record 2.8 million tonnes. The sugarcane crop was 18.5 million tonnes, up 3% year on year. Other field crops and fruit harvests were also decent in 2023. Still, this excellent performance did not translate into overall robust agricultural machinery sales as it has been in the past. They paint a mixed picture in 2023. Tractors amounted to 8 380 units, down by 9% from 2022. The decline in tractor sales is unsurprising, because we expected the sales to cool off after a few years of excellent activity. Tractor sales in 2022 amounted to 9 181 units, up 17% year on year and the highest annual sales for the past 40 years. Meanwhile, the number of combine harvesters sold was 505 units, up notably by 35% year on year. This follows an excellent performance of 373 units in 2022, up 38% year on year and the highest yearly sales figure since 1985. These strong combine harvester sales are primarily on the back of large grain and oilseed harvest. Read full opinion piece by Wandile Sihlobo here. Alternatively to can listen to Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo on the same topic.

Over 70 countries around the globe will hold elections this year in what will be a huge test for democracy with implications for policy, geopolitics and ultimately businesses. South Africa is one of these countries, with its national and provincial elections due to take place this year. During this period, leaders of the various political parties that will be contesting for power outline their manifestos, speaking to the various challenges across society, the economy as well as other areas and how they plan to address these challenges. Given the history of this country, it is commonplace for political parties to include land and agricultural policies in their election manifestos and promises. This year’s elections come when the agricultural sector faces serious challenges, thus offering an opportunity to hear whether the political leaders or various parties’ manifestos will speak to the pressing challenges of the sector. The most pressing issues, according to the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index results for the fourth quarter of 2023 include intensified delays and inefficiencies at the ports, rising crime, deteriorating rail and road infrastructure, worsening municipal service delivery, rising protectionism in key export markets, increased geopolitical uncertainty and persistent episodes of rolling blackouts. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo.

As provincial and national elections draw near, political parties are actively seeking support from various societal groups, with farmers holding significant influence due to their pivotal role. Often finding themselves at the centre of major debates, disputes, or even friendly arguments, farmers are a crucial demographic. According to Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA, the farming sector, like any other societal segment, anticipates political parties addressing their concerns and aspirations. In an enlightening interview with Stephen Grootes on eNCA, Sihlobo discusses the sector's expectations and how they align with political promises. Watch the insightful interview here. 

There are divergent views about the effectiveness and extent to which SA’s agricultural policies have been implemented. Regardless of how experts feel about the capacity of the state and the policy stance of the government since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the sector has grown tremendously, as illustrated in the accompanying graphic. Data from the department of agriculture, land reform & rural development shows that domestic agricultural output in 2022/23 was twice as high as in 1993/94. Whether this growth has been inclusive and transformative is a question I will return to later in this piece. For now, it is important to emphasise the growth of the industry and the drivers of its expansion. Significantly, this expansion was not driven by a few sectors but has been widespread; livestock, horticulture and field crops have all seen strong growth over this period. Production of some crops, most notably wheat and sorghum, has declined over time, but this has had a lot to do with changes in agroecological conditions and falling demand in the case of sorghum, not policy. The higher production levels have mainly been underpinned by new production technologies, better farming skills, growing demand (locally and globally) and progressive trade policy. The private sector has played a major role in this progress. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo for businesslive.co.za.

South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed to 8,5% in December 2023, from 9,0% in the previous month (and against our expectations of a slight uptick to 9,3%). The product prices underpinning this deceleration were primarily bread and cereals; oils and fats; and vegetables. We expect this moderation path to continue in 2024 for most of the products within the food basket. The significant risk to meat supplies that animal diseases such as avian influenza presented in 2023 could ease this year. There will likely be a recovery in poultry production following a range of interventions that the industry and the government embarked on at the end of last year. These include the importation of fertilized eggs to rebuild the parental bird stock lost from avian influenza, importing table eggs (powder and liquid eggs that would help in the baking process and free the whole eggs for human consumption), and the ongoing processes of the possible vaccinations to curb the spread of the disease (although there remain some delays with approvals of some vaccines by the authorities). Evidently, over the festive season, we did not notice any recorded shortages of poultry products. Another additional policy measure the government has is enabling poultry product imports in the event of supply constraints, which we do not anticipate over the foreseeable future. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo. 

The 54th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum, held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, gathered nearly 3,000 leaders from government, business, and civil society globally. Against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, the forum served as a platform for fostering dialogue, cooperation, and action-oriented partnerships. Participants engaged in discussions on key issues, proposing new ideas and initiatives to enhance resilience, revive economic growth, address climate concerns, navigate technological innovation, and invest in jobs, skills, and health. The meeting featured over 450 sessions, workshops, and the launch of more than 50 high-impact initiatives, emphasising the commitment to rebuilding trust for a better future. For additional information, visit WEF Annual Meeting 2024.

South Africa's fresh fruit exporters experience mixed fortunes as the grape harvest surpasses predictions, while the pomefruit and stonefruit industries plan legal action against shipping authority Transnet. The citrus industry, set to begin shipments in April, hopes issues will be resolved by then. All major export sectors report improved crops compared to the previous year, anticipating increased pressure on ports later in the year. Port problems, especially at Cape Town's container terminal, affect grape and stonefruit exports. Grape producers pack 17% more than last season, but exports are 10% lower. Stonefruit season peaks with improvements in Cape Town's terminal, yet concerns persist. Click here to read full article derived from fruitnet.com.

The Citrus Growers Association South Africa expresses cautious optimism for 2024, anticipating an increased citrus crop. CEO Justin Chadwick acknowledges concerns about logistical challenges in transporting the fruit to markets. The citrus season begins with lemons in February and extends to September, with the potential for record-setting exports. Meanwhile, the pome fruit sector looks forward to 2024 with optimism, expecting promising apple export volumes and a slightly below-average pear export crop. Hortgro forecasts a 7% rise in apple exports and a 1% uptick in pear shipments. Despite logistical challenges, including port congestion and phytosanitary regulations, the association hopes for improvements in the upcoming season. South Africa's citrus season faces potential obstacles in logistical operations, with Chadwick highlighting the need to address port congestion issues. The selection of International Container Terminal Services (ICTS) for the upgrading of Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 is welcomed, aiming to enhance operational efficiency. However, the industry grapples with EU phytosanitary regulations concerning Citrus Black Spot (CBS) and False Codling Moth (FCM), emphasising the need for the South African government's intervention at the World Trade Organisation level. Rising shipping costs due to disruptions in the Red Sea pose additional challenges. Despite forecasting good harvests, the industry remains vigilant about addressing logistical inefficiencies and enhancing export processes. Click here to read full article by iol.co.za.

South Africa faced critical developments over the holidays, notably the release of the draft Integrated Resource Plan 2023 (IRP 23), signalling challenges in addressing the nation's energy needs. Despite proposing bid windows for renewables and gas, IRP 23 falls short of the required 60,000 MW of new capacity over a decade. Energy analyst Chris Yelland's data reveals a decline in Eskom's energy availability factor, emphasising the utility's struggles. The plan envisions load-shedding until 2027, showcasing a lack of urgency and vision. With a mere 28,000 MW allocated over seven years, IRP 23 fails to meet the country's energy crisis head-on. While renewables dominate at 69%, insufficient attention to industrial development raises concerns. Fortunately, regulatory reforms provide opportunities for private sector involvement, offering potential solutions to the supply deficit. Despite IRP 23's shortcomings, the evolving landscape and the Just Energy Transition (JET) plan suggest a pathway to a more sustainable energy future for South Africa. Click here to read full article by Political & Trend Analyst JP Landman.

Timely rain has benefited much of South Africa's key production areas, except for the western Free State, which experienced limited to no rainfall, leading to a drying trend. The overall moisture profile in the country remains favourable, with a mix of spotty rain and sunshine expected in the coming week. However, rain amounts are anticipated to decrease due to the development of a strong tropical cyclone near Madagascar. Central and southern Natal received significant rainfall, ranging from 1.30 to 6.73 inches, while other regions reported varying levels of moisture. Despite moisture shortages in the Western Cape and Northern Cape, crop development conditions are expected to remain favourable, although some regions may experience reductions in soil moisture. Timely rain has benefited much of South Africa's main production areas, with the exception of the western Free State, which is experiencing limited to no rainfall, leading to a drying trend. The overall moisture profile in the country is rated favourably, but a mix of spotty rain and sunshine is expected in the coming week. The development of a strong tropical cyclone near Madagascar is anticipated to result in lower rain amounts. Central and southern Natal reported significant rainfall, while other regions experienced varying levels of moisture. Despite moisture shortages in the Western Cape and Northern Cape, crop development conditions are expected to remain favourable, although some regions may see reductions in soil moisture. Click here to read full report. 

This update offers a consolidated view of South Africa's supply chain and international trade. Commercial ports faced challenges, with increased container handling but persistent operational constraints. Weather conditions affected ports like Cape Town and Richards Bay, while dredging concerns persisted in Durban. A tragic train collision disrupted coal exports in Richards Bay. The Red Sea crisis impacted global shipping, leading to rerouting and potential freight rate inflation. Air freight from South Africa rebounded after low festive season volumes, surpassing international trends. Cross-border road freight saw increased queues and transit times, with notable developments at SADC border posts. While port throughput and air cargo show improvement, rail modalities remain a significant concern, impacting the recovery of South Africa's logistics network. The nation faces the risk of becoming a secondary port, emphasising the need for urgent corrective action. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.