Branko Milanovic, an expert on inequality, highlights the nuanced nature of global income disparities. While income inequality between countries has lessened due to the rapid growth of populous Asian nations, inequality within countries has surged, notably in the US, China, Russia, and parts of Europe, but not in Latin America. Milanovic emphasises the significance of historical context in understanding these trends. He identifies three key eras: colonialism, a period of class conflict, and the division into the First, Second, and Third worlds in the 20th century. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the wealthiest haven't significantly increased their share of global income, although they've seen substantial absolute income growth. Looking ahead, Milanovic believes that Africa's role is pivotal in shaping global income inequality. However, he's pessimistic about Africa replicating the growth patterns of China and India, citing historical growth trends in African countries. Nevertheless, he acknowledges the potential for future economic dynamics and stresses that African economic growth is crucial in determining the future of global poverty and inequality. Read full article first published on theconversation.com here.

Seven WTO member nations have taken a significant step toward the entry into force of the historic Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies by formally accepting it. These nations include Albania, Australia, Botswana, Cuba, Côte d’Ivoire, the Republic of Korea, and Saint Lucia. The acceptance ceremony occurred during the Senior Officials Meeting at the WTO's headquarters in Geneva. With these additions, the total number of accepting WTO members has reached 51, marking a substantial progress toward the Agreement's entry into force. However, it still requires the formal acceptance of two-thirds of the WTO membership, and the hope is to reach that threshold soon. The Agreement, adopted during the 12th Ministerial Conference in June 2022, introduces binding multilateral rules to combat harmful fisheries subsidies that contribute to the depletion of global fish stocks. It also addresses the needs of developing and least-developed countries and establishes a fund for technical assistance and capacity building. The Agreement aims to prohibit support for illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, terminate subsidies for fishing overfished stocks, and eliminate support for fishing on the unregulated high seas. The negotiations on outstanding issues are set to continue with the goal of enhancing the Agreement's disciplines before the 13th Ministerial Conference in February 2024. Read full article first published on wto.org here. 

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) status for South Africa is likely to be renewed despite recent geopolitical differences with the United States. South Africa's participation in AGOA, a trade program that offers duty-free access to the U.S. market, has been under review. An important indicator of its renewal is the upcoming AGOA Forum scheduled for November 1-4 in Johannesburg. While there have been disagreements over geopolitical issues such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, experts believe that South Africa's continued participation is likely. The U.S. values South Africa's role in supplying raw materials and seeks to boost its manufacturing sector. In addition, South Africa aims to extend AGOA membership and strengthen its investment ties with the U.S. to support industrialization in Africa. The annual review process of AGOA, which creates uncertainty, is a concern, and there are efforts to extend the membership for longer periods. South Africa and the U.S. have a significant economic relationship, with South Africa being an essential trade partner, especially in terms of exports to the U.S. Click here to read full article first published on Daily Maverick (South Africa). Additionally, approximately 350 representatives from 35 AGOA beneficiary countries, including South Africa, will attend the AGOA Business Forum. Agbiz, participating in the forum, will showcase key South African agricultural exporters who have grown their presence in the U.S. market. Collaboration with the DTIC allows for the profiling of South African agricultural products during the AGOA Ministerial Exhibition. South African agricultural exports to the U.S. have been steadily rising since COVID-19. Agbiz continues to pursue further growth through a National Strategy and resolution of phytosanitary issues in discussions with the government.

As South Africa heads into the 2023/24 summer season, many regions face varying conditions, from poor to reasonable veld and livestock conditions. Veld fires have inflicted damage, and farmers are urged to remain vigilant and monitor daily extreme weather warnings. Most major dams maintain high water levels. The South African Weather Service predicts above-normal early summer rainfall, particularly in the north-eastern areas, while below-normal rainfall is expected in the western and central regions during mid-summer, despite the presence of El Niño. Farmers are advised to exercise caution, waiting for sufficient soil moisture before planting, prioritizing drought-tolerant cultivars in dry areas, and being prepared for increased pest and disease risks. Irrigation users must comply with water restrictions, and livestock management should align with veld carrying capacity. Veld fires remain a threat, emphasizing the need for fire prevention measures, and flooding from rain-bearing systems is possible, requiring preventive measures and the utilization of early-warning information for disaster risk mitigation. Click here to read full report by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development. 

South Africa faces a significant R660 billion funding shortfall for its Just Energy Transition, despite wealthy nations pledging R8.5 billion and additional investments. Minister Barbara Creecy highlighted the need for diverse funding sources, including multilateral development banks, international partners, private investors, and the national budget. While the initial $8.5 billion pledge provided a starting point, it falls far short of the required resources for the R1.5 trillion transition over five years. Efforts to secure funding have generated new pledges from countries like Denmark, the Netherlands, and Spain amounting to $3.5 billion, and the domestic private sector is set to invest between R500 billion and R700 billion in new energy generation. Multilateral development banks and development financing funds may contribute between R170 billion and R200 billion. Despite these efforts, the government is actively seeking sources to fill the remaining R660 billion gap. South Africa's transition to cleaner energy is vital, given its significant carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, and funding will support the decommissioning of coal power plants, create alternative employment opportunities in coal mining regions, and promote renewable energy adoption. Click here to read full article first published on engineeringnews.co.za.

The Portfolio Committee on Trade, Industry and Competition conducted public hearings into the Companies Amendment Bill and the Companies Second Amendment Bill on 17, 18 and 20 October. There was a lot of public interest in these Bills and many organisations, including BUSA, BASA, COSATU, the Consumer Goods Council of South Africa, the JSE, the Law Society and the King Committee presented their views on the Bills. Agbiz also appeared before the committee to make a submission. The main aims of the amendment Bills are to: 1. Promote the ease of doing business and cut unnecessary red tape. 2. Achieve equity between directors and senior management on the one hand, and shareholders and workers on the other hand. 3. Provide greater disclosure of the ultimate owner of shares in a business as part of the broader efforts to combat corruption and money-laundering. The Bills provide for an extension of the time limit within which a director might be declared delinquent by the courts, from two years to give years, with potential for further extension beyond this period under justifiable circumstances. The Bills also provide for greater transparency on the beneficial owners of companies. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby.

A media article from Reuters this past week noted that China is closer to commercializing genetically modified maize and soybeans. 1 It stated that "China has approved 37 genetically modified maize seed varieties and 14 genetically modified soybean varieties, taking it close to commercial planting of GMO maize and soybeans." This is not the first time China has made headlines about its path towards the potential commercialization of genetically modified maize and soybeans for domestic cultivation. In June 2013, the Chinese National Crop Variety Approval Committee released two standards that cleared the path for cultivating genetically modified crops in the country. This was the missing piece in the regulations for the commercial production of genetically modified maize and soybeans in China, as the government has two steps in these regulations, namely, a "safety certificate" and a "variety approval" before crops can be commercially cultivated. 2 Various genetically modified maize and soybean varieties have received the safety certificate since 2019, and the missing piece was the "variety approval", which was approved in June 2022.  Click here to read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo.

The big issue in agriculture currently is the avian influenza spreading across South Africa, with Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State, Limpopo and North West being the provinces most affected so far. I understand that more than a hundred mostly commercial facilities have reported avian influenza cases. Notably, there are reported losses in parental stock for breeders of layers and in broilers. For this reason egg supplies are constrained, as is evident on retail shelves. I recently participated in two meetings held to address the immediate problem in the industry. The department of agriculture, land reform and rural development met retailers to assess the severity of the egg supplies and various response measures. Then the department met the poultry industry to receive an update on the spread of the disease and for the industry to obtain insights into the state’s veterinary services. The significant steps following these discussions are measures being implemented by the industry and the government to control the spread of the disease. This is an ongoing process and we will probably receive an update this week. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo first published on mg.co.za.

October 16th marks World Food Day, a celebration of the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945. This day is also an opportunity for countries to reflect on their food security conditions and efforts to boost agricultural production. Thus, today, we revisit an aspect we discussed a year ago: food security conditions in South Africa. One of the measures some researchers often use to evaluate the food security condition of each country relative to the world is The Economist's Global Food Security Index. In 2022, South Africa ranked 59th out of 113 countries in the index and was the most food secure in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is an improvement from the previous year's ranking of 70th in 2021. South Africa ranked the second most food-secure country in the African continent after Morocco. The Global Food Security Index comprises four subindices, namely: (1) food affordability, (2) food availability, (3) food quality and safety, and (4) sustainability and adaptation. The affordability and availability subindices carry a combined weighting of two-thirds of the total index. Listen to full Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo here.

Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, a Republican legislator, has introduced a bill advocating for a 20-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). If approved by the U.S. Congress, this extension would secure Agoa's benefits for African countries until 2025. One of the primary arguments supporting this extension is that it could help counter China's growing trade influence in Africa, particularly regarding resource access. South Africa, whose continued Agoa inclusion was in jeopardy due to diplomatic tensions around Russia's actions in Ukraine, could find some relief with this proposed extension. Recent controversies, including South Africa's reluctance to condemn Russia and its perceived alignment with Russia, have strained its trade relations with the U.S. A diplomatic dispute involving a blacklisted vessel at a South African naval base further exacerbated these tensions. The Western Cape premier and a team of delegates sought to protect South Africa's non-tariff benefits under Agoa by visiting the U.S. However, the eligibility review under Agoa, which includes refraining from supporting acts of terrorism, remains a critical consideration. The report on eligibility is expected in November, highlighting the importance of South Africa's stance on various international issues and its potential impact on Agoa membership. Read full article first published on freightnews.co.za here.

French tomato production is facing a significant decline due to limited expansion opportunities and a lack of investment by public authorities, leading to a surge in imports. In 2022, France imported 19% more tomatoes (425,552 tons) compared to 2021, with Moroccan tomatoes, especially cherry tomatoes, constituting 63% of these imports. The French Ministry of Agriculture predicts a 13% reduction in French tomato production in 2023 due to a drop in greenhouse cultivation and rising production costs. The sector is grappling with various constraints, including regulatory measures that do not align with practical conditions. As French tomato production dwindles, Moroccan tomato exports to Europe, particularly France, are flourishing. These exports benefit from favourable trade agreements and a lack of clear labelling, causing concerns among French producers. The sector is seeking a government-backed development and investment plan to revitalize the industry and prevent its gradual displacement by imports, as greenhouse construction and renovation projects remain scarce. Click here to read full article first published on freshplaza.com.

South Africa's food inflation and agricultural commodity prices are shaped by both global and domestic factors. While the FAO food price index has shown reductions, the depreciation of the Rand exchange rate often mitigates these declines. Domestic challenges like load shedding directly impact food inflation through increased supply chain costs and reduced access to irrigated commodities. In global markets, oilseed and vegetable oil prices are influenced by fluctuations in palm, sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed oils. South Africa's domestic prices for these commodities are also impacted by international trends, with soybean prices increasing despite record crops. The Avian Influenza outbreak in the chicken industry may further affect soya meal demand. The global dairy price index has consistently declined due to abundant supplies and weak import demand, while meat prices vary, with pig and poultry prices decreasing despite a recovery in bovine meat prices. Cereal prices have been influenced by higher maize prices, counteracting lower wheat and rice prices. South Africa's substantial maize harvest has resulted in exportable surpluses, helping maintain prices at export parity levels. In the fruit industry, a weaker Rand and favourable export conditions have improved returns, but reduced supply and adverse weather conditions have influenced supply and prices. Potato prices have fluctuated due to load shedding, input cost increases, changing crop preferences, and regional yield variability, all contributing to the complexity of food inflation in South Africa. Click here to read full Food Inflation Brief by BFAP and Dr. Marlene Louw. 

The 2023/24 global cotton production is expected to reach 24.98 million tonnes, while consumption is projected at 23.31 million tonnes, reflecting a modest 0.59% decrease from the previous season. The decline in cotton demand is a result of weakened global economic growth, trade barriers, recession concerns, and inflation. Surprisingly, exports are showing a robust 14.75% growth. East Asian economies, notably China, India, and Pakistan, remain at the forefront of cotton consumption. However, the supply chain for yarn and fabric appears well-stocked, with limited opportunities for increased cotton lint movement, leading to reserved orders from mills. Despite a slight global consumption dip, some major consumer countries may experience minimal growth, and Australia is making positive production and export strides. These dynamics are contributing to an increase in ending stocks and downward pressure on cotton prices. The outlook suggests that cotton prices are likely to remain low for the new season, with a price forecast ranging from 69.69 to 105.01 cents per pound, creating challenges for cotton producers. Click here to read full Cotton Market Report September 2023. 

Agbiz Chief Economist, Wandile Sihlobo, played host to a significant event in Melville, Johannesburg - the book launch of his latest work, "A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, the Challenges, the Solutions." This evening, masterfully led by Ayabonga Cawe, transcended being merely a literary celebration, transforming into a platform for advancing discussions about agriculture in South Africa. With luminaries like Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development Thokozile Didiza present, along with the active participation of passionate young voices, the event evolved into a compelling forum for dialogue, insight, and inspiration. Wandile Sihlobo's name carries substantial weight in the realm of agricultural economics in South Africa. Serving as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa's Presidential Economic Advisory Council, Sihlobo's insights are instrumental in shaping the nation's economic policies and strategies. "A Country of Two Agricultures" is another testament to his dedication to addressing the persistent disparities within South Africa's agriculture sector. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Communications Officer Temba Msiza.

Ntinga OR Tambo Development Agency and Standard Bank have joined forces to support small farmers specializing in piggery and vegetable farming in the OR Tambo District Municipality. Officials from these organizations visited local municipalities, including Nyandeni, to educate farmers about the assistance available to support their businesses. The partnership between Ntinga and Standard Bank aims to assist Small Medium & Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) specializing in piggery and vegetable farming. They have introduced a loan program of up to R50,000 with no interest to help small farmers kickstart or expand their businesses. Bongani Lukhele, Standard Bank Enterprise Development manager, emphasized the importance of access to finance for SMMEs and expressed the bank's commitment to growing small businesses to ensure their sustainability. The initiative received positive feedback from young farmers, such as Neziswa Mlenzana of Green-Vines Agricultural Co-operative, who sees the opportunity as a significant step forward in overcoming the challenges of startup and working capital. In addition to financial support, the program will provide training in agro-processing, allowing farmers to enhance their businesses and explore new avenues for their agricultural products. Read full article first published on news24.com here.

South Africa's recent Census 2022, while revealing a national population growth to 62 million, underscored the inherent imprecision of censuses as an estimate of a population at a specific moment rather than an exact count. Strikingly, this census had a remarkably high undercount, with 31% of individuals and 30% of households missed or unresponsive. It's a new international record, raising questions about the future of fieldwork-based censuses. The context, including the COVID-19 pandemic, social unrest, and low government trust, played a significant role in these deficiencies. To mitigate this undercount, a Post Enumeration Survey was conducted to identify missed individuals and develop adjustment factors, but analysts may still find challenges due to the massive undercount. The declining survey response rates globally suggest that the traditional census approach may need reimagining. Leveraging big data could be a viable solution. By harvesting data from government departments and forming partnerships with private sector entities, Stats SA could compile a national population dataset more efficiently and cost-effectively. This shift towards big data is a global trend, and Stats SA must consider this option for the 2032 census to ensure the reliability of national data in the future. Read full article first published on theconversation.com here.

Dubai-based DP World has inked a 30-year concession agreement with the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) to operate and upgrade the multi-purpose Dar es Salaam Port, connecting Tanzania and the broader region to global markets. DP World will make an initial investment of over $250 million to enhance the port, with the potential for the total investment to reach $1 billion over the concession period, encompassing hinterland logistics projects. This investment is expected to positively impact Tanzania's socioeconomic development by creating jobs and increasing access to products and services. The port will be linked to sub-Saharan Africa's hinterland via a network of roads, railways, and dedicated freight corridors, further supporting the growing demand for logistics solutions across the continent and facilitating global market access for regional businesses. Additionally, DP World will work in partnership with TPA to streamline cargo clearance and enhance cargo planning, solidifying Dar es Salaam's vital role as the maritime gateway for green energy metals from Southern-Central Africa's copper belt. The agreement reflects Tanzania's commitment to developing world-class infrastructure through the Public-Private Partnership model. Click here to read full article first published on container-news.com. 

This update highlights the South African supply chain challenges and global trade impacts. South African ports faced significant container handling setbacks due to adverse weather conditions, causing congestion and extended berthing delays. The global trade landscape shows sluggish growth, with the Eurozone's economic prospects diminishing, particularly in Germany. The UK's economy stagnated, and China and the US experienced trade declines. Inward-focused economic strategies now appear more resilient in the short term. In the maritime industry, stock valuations of major container companies dropped by $135 billion, contributing to global inflation. The expiration of the EU Consortia Block Exemption Regulation may affect Asian container carriers more than European counterparts. Freight rates have stabilized with a recent rise, and the Golden Week holiday influenced capacity availability. Air freight to and from South Africa saw a slight reduction in throughput, mainly due to decreased imports. Regionally, cross-border road freight trade improved in terms of queue and transit times. South African border crossing times increased, with notable developments at various border posts. Efforts are needed to address constraints, improve logistics efficiency, and boost South Africa's foreign trade sectors. Click here to read full BUSA Cargo movement update 159.

The interior regions are currently experiencing dry conditions with isolated thundershowers forecasted in the central, eastern, and northeastern areas. Unfortunately, these showers won't bring significant relief. On the other hand, the southern and southeastern regions will encounter stormy and wet conditions due to an upper-air low system, resulting in widespread rainfall. Notably, the Garden Route, Eastern Cape, and southern KZN are expected to receive substantial rainfall. Despite low atmospheric moisture levels, isolated thundershowers might occur in the central to northern and northeastern interior regions, with low rainfall totals and accompanying lightning and strong winds. Widespread rainfall could potentially return at a later date, primarily favouring the northeastern interior. Interior areas will experience above-normal temperatures while the south will see normal to below-normal temperatures, with changing temperature patterns. The southern parts will have cool, cloudy, and windy weather with isolated thundershowers, with the likelihood of frost in eastern high-lying areas. Click here to read full CUMULUS season 2023/2024 by J Malherbe, R Kuschke.

South African Macadamias (SAMAC) reports a promising performance in the macadamia industry, with an expected harvest of 77,532 tonnes of dry nut-in-shell, representing a 12.6% increase compared to 2022. While initial forecasts were adjusted downward by 4,024 tonnes due to excessive rainfall in the first quarter hindering orchard access and affecting bee pollination and photosynthesis, the industry has showcased remarkable resilience. Despite challenges such as weather-related issues, pest pressures, and economic uncertainties, South African macadamia farmers' dedication to quality production has maintained the country's strong position in the global macadamia market. The industry anticipates a stable conclusion to the harvest season. Click here to read full press release by SAMAC.

On October 25, Agbiz had its regional members meeting in Gqeberha, which was excellently attended by both members and non-members. Agbiz staff shared insights about general agricultural and agribusiness conditions, policy developments, and an update on various interactions with the government. The general sentiment of the meeting was positive, mirroring the eastern cape’s agricultural and economic recovery after a prolonged drought. The members stressed the importance of continuous work on opening export markets, resolving energy challenges, ports and rail issues, and weakening infrastructure, as well as land reform and various environmental policies. These are areas of work that Agbiz is already involved in and will continue working collaboratively with government and industry. The presentations are available on request by emailing Agbiz Industry Liaison Liezl Esterhuizen here. 

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.