The global economy is gradually recovering from the pandemic and Ukraine's invasion, with signs of progress in the near term. The COVID-19 crisis is over, supply-chain disruptions have eased, and economic activity remains resilient, supported by strong labour markets. Energy and food prices have declined, easing inflation pressures. Financial instability after the March banking turmoil is contained due to decisive actions by US and Swiss authorities. The baseline forecast predicts a growth slowdown from 3,5% last year to 3% this year and next. Global inflation is projected to decline from 8,7% last year to 6,8% this year and 5,2% in 2024. Challenges persist, including potential risks to global activity and core inflation remaining above central bank targets. Multilateral cooperation is essential for addressing issues like geoeconomic fragmentation and climate transition to ensure a safe and prosperous global economy. Read the full article first published on IMF Blog here.

The US dollar's 20-year high had major implications for the global economy. Negative spillovers disproportionately affected emerging markets, reducing economic output by 1,9% for 2,5 years, while advanced economies experienced smaller and shorter impacts. Emerging markets saw decreased trade volumes, credit availability, capital inflows, and stock-market declines. Exchange rate and monetary policy adjustments aided advanced economies, while fear of exchange rate fluctuations hindered emerging markets. More anchored inflation expectations and flexible exchange rates benefited emerging markets. Global current account balances declined by 0,4% of world GDP due to the dollar's appreciation. Precautionary measures and policies are vital to address these spillovers, including global safety nets and macroprudential measures for emerging markets. Read the full article first published on IMF Blog here.

India's recent move to restrict exports of specific rice varieties is amplifying concerns about global food price instability. Intended to tackle rising inflation worries, the ban comes on the heels of Russia's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, further exacerbating the challenges in ensuring global food security. Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, highlights the unhelpful nature of these developments in a full interview available on cnbcafrica.com. The combined impact of these decisions adds to the complexity of the food crisis, raising the need for strategic measures to safeguard food availability worldwide. Click here to watch the full interview.

The recent rains across South Africa have been favourable for the 2023/24 winter crops. The crops are mostly in good condition in the Western Cape, a province that accounts for over two-thirds of the winter wheat, barley, canola and oats plantings. The heavy rains in June in the region, which damaged infrastructure, had a minimal adverse effect on the overall winter crops. Admittedly, certain areas received excessive moisture that may have stunted crops in some fields. Still, the broad feedback from various conversations with producers in the province suggests that we could receive above-average yields in winter crops. Other notable winter crop-producing provinces such as Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo also have good soil moisture from the summer rainfall, which is now beneficial for winter crop growing conditions. Notably, the weather conditions have also been much colder this winter, supporting crop conditions. Click here to read the full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

This past week was dominated by global agricultural events. First, grain exports, specifically from Ukraine, were disrupted when Russia invaded the country in February 2022. But the rising concerns about global food security resulted in the United Nations and Turkey brokering a deal in July 2022 between Russia and Ukraine to allow a safe movement of grain from Ukraine to the world market while the war continued. But this past week, Russia halted the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The reasons are not clear but it appears that the attack on the Kerch Bridge connecting the Crimea peninsula to the Russian mainland angered Russia. But this is possibly not the only reason. Prior to this week's events, Russia wanted to increase the exports of ammonia and other fertiliser material to the world market and this required the EU to reconnect the Russian Agriculture Bank to the global electronic payment network, SWIFT. Russia demanded that this be done for them to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had not happened. Click here to listen to this week’s episode on Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

Italian apple producer association, Assomela, recently hosted discussions with German company FoodPlus to address the evolution of GlobalGAP's farm assurance scheme. Certain elements of GlobalGAP's Option 2 certification, which applies to producer groups, will become compulsory from January 2024. Assomela emphasised the need for simplified aspects of Option 2 to support small-scale producers with limited resources. Both sides also agreed on the necessity of new guidelines to ensure GlobalGAP remains compatible with local legislation without compromising standards. The meeting aimed to enhance collaboration and understanding between the two parties in implementing group certification on a large scale. Italy currently has over 24 000 farms with GlobalGAP certification. Read the full article first published on fruitnet.com here.

The 2023 Southern Africa Economic Outlook report by the African Development Bank reveals a slowdown in economic growth in the region, largely influenced by South Africa's challenges, including civil unrest, an electricity crisis, and natural disasters. The GDP growth for the Southern Africa region in 2022 reached only 2,7%, well below global and African averages. The report predicts further slowing down of growth in 2023 to 1,6%, with a slight improvement to 2,7% in 2024. The report emphasises the need for private sector involvement in financing climate action and green growth initiatives to address regional environmental and economic challenges. Additionally, the report highlights the vast potential for climate-related investments in Southern Africa. Click here to read the full article, first published on African Development Bank Group and click here to read the full report.

Tanzanian company Kagera Sugar, owned by Seif Ali Seif, is set to acquire the sugar assets of South African producer Tongaat Hulett, including its divisions in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Botswana. The monetary value of the equity deal remains undisclosed. Tongaat Hulett has been under business rescue since October 2022 and is suspended from the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE). Kagera emerged as the preferred partner out of eight candidates, praised for its financial strength and track record. Tongaat Hulett faced challenges with high debt levels, financial misstatements, and historical mismanagement, leading to its business rescue. Kagera Sugar Limited is a subsidiary of Tanzanian conglomerate Super Group, involved in sugar production and other industries. Click here to read full article first published on billionaires.africa.com.

The Citrus Growers Association (CGA) launched the Economic Transformation of Black Citrus Growers (ETBCG) programme in partnership with various organisations, providing funding and technical support to black citrus growers for orchard development and infrastructure. The CGA's ETBCG programme provided R161,3 million funding for black citrus growers, creating 78 permanent and 625 seasonal jobs. The unique structure offered grants and low-interest loans to reduce debt levels. Applicants needed 60% black ownership and a commitment to job creation. Despite challenges from COVID-19 and industry issues, R78,9 million was disbursed to eight successful black farming operations. Beneficiaries expressed gratitude for the support. The programme aims to boost citrus exports and promote transformation in agriculture. Funds will continue until March 2024, with a two-year monitoring period. CGA thanks all partners and looks forward to sustainable growth in the industry. Read the full statement by CEO of CGA Justin Chadwick here.

The South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO) announces Dr Peter Evans as new CEO, praised by chairperson Stephen Butt for his extensive experience in the global pork value chain and leadership in animal health. Dr Evans, with a background in farming and veterinary sciences, has been instrumental in Pork 360 development and fostering industry growth. He emphasises the need for collaboration to address biosecurity risks and ensure market access and sustainable development. Dr Evans will assume the position in September 2023. Read the full article here.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.