South African President Cyril Ramaphosa met with Cabinet members and senior business leaders to review the progress of a collaborative effort initiated in June 2023. The partnership between the government and business aims to revitalise South Africa's economy by addressing challenges in energy, logistics, crime, and corruption. President Ramaphosa emphasised the positive strides made, emphasising that the success of these efforts will ultimately be gauged by the benefits felt by ordinary citizens. Notable progress has been made in the energy sector, with the National Energy Crisis Committee (NECOM) working towards implementing the Energy Action Plan (EAP) to mitigate load shedding. Business leaders have committed resources and expertise to support the EAP's implementation. Additionally, steps have been taken to establish the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) and streamline regulatory processes for private energy investment. In the logistics sector, operational improvements and reforms are underway, including the development of a Freight Logistics Roadmap. Efforts are also directed at reducing congestion at border crossings and restoring passenger rail services. The government and business are collaborating to enhance law enforcement capabilities and combat crimes targeting infrastructure. Future assessments will focus on the passage of critical reform legislation, power station performance recovery, finalising the Freight Logistics Roadmap, and addressing crime and corruption through joint coordination. Click here to read full statement.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces an alarming rise in public debt, nearly doubling in the past decade to reach nearly 60% of GDP by the end of 2022. This surge in debt, coupled with a sharp increase in the ratio of interest payments to revenue, has raised significant concerns about the region's susceptibility to a debt crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proposed a set of five policy actions for African governments to prevent such a crisis. These actions include the establishment of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy, fiscal adjustments to reduce debt levels, mobilisation of domestic revenue, strengthening of budget institutions, and securing public support for reforms through transparent communication. These measures aim to strike a balance between fiscal sustainability and developmental goals, ensuring the region's economic stability. The IMF's recommendations come as a response to the urgent need for sub-Saharan African countries to address their growing debt burdens and associated risks. By implementing these strategies, governments can steer their economies toward a more stable and sustainable fiscal path, averting the looming threat of a debt crisis while pursuing critical development objectives in the region. Click here to read full article first published in IMF Blog.

Emerging market and developing economies face economic challenges such as high inflation, rising debt, and balance of payments issues, compounded by the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine. These nations also need to balance carbon emissions reduction with economic growth. Economy-wide reforms, including governance improvements and business regulation changes, can quickly boost growth, especially if properly prioritised. First-generation reforms, addressing key constraints like trade barriers and governance issues, can lead to substantial output gains, up to 4-8% within four years. Examples from Georgia and Senegal illustrate the growth effects of such reforms. Combining first-generation and green reforms, like energy taxation and green investments, is essential to reduce emission intensity while supporting economic growth. Governance reforms enhance policy predictability and reduce implementation risks for climate projects, attracting foreign investment. Reducing barriers to business creation facilitates investment in green sectors. While growth is crucial, emerging market and developing economies must also reduce carbon emissions over time, making a balanced approach vital for their sustainability. Click here to read full article first published on IMF Blog. 

This article examines South Africa's anti-corruption efforts, drawing lessons from the US experience. In 2021, US research highlighted four key lessons: reform is possible, albeit gradual; the fight against corruption requires increased resources; institutional changes play a vital role, and a mix of direct and indirect strategies is effective. The article then focuses on South Africa's reforms, including the Special Investigative Unit (SIU) Tribunal and the Investigative Directorate (ID). The SIU Tribunal expedites fund recovery and dismissals of corrupt individuals. The ID, within the National Prosecuting Authority, investigates state capture cases and is moving towards permanent status. Notable successes include the Anti-Corruption Task Team's arrests, SARS's corruption combat measures, and a partnership with the private sector via the Resource Management Fund. Funds recovered are held in the Criminal Asset Recovery Account. The article stresses the need for reform in the South African Police Service and the court system, essential to overall progress. Additionally, it calls for greater accountability in the private sector and highlights the slow but steady progress in South Africa's fight against corruption. Click here to read full article by Political & Trend Analyst JP Landman. 

We recently published an optimistic view about the 2023/24 global grains supplies outlook, drawing on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, the 2023/24 global wheat production prospects need a closer look as we continue to see reports of poor yields in the EU, Russia, Canada, Ukraine, Australia, the UK and Kazakhstan. The drier weather conditions over the past few months are the primary reason for the decline in yields in these countries. Consequently, the latest report from the International Grains Council places the 2023/24 global wheat production at 783 million tonnes, down 3% from the previous season. Still, this would be the second-largest global wheat harvest on record. In line with these downward revisions in production estimates and increased consumption, the 2023/24 global wheat stocks could fall 7% y/y to 263 million tonnes. These adjustments imply that the decline in global wheat prices we have witnessed in recent months could slow, and prices could start to move sideways over the coming months. Such an outlook is not entirely favourable for wheat-importing countries. Still, we doubt that prices would surge to levels we witnessed a year ago following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which disrupted the flow of wheat supplies from the Black Sea region. In addition, while the Black Sea Grain Deal has not been renewed yet, the price reaction has not been as dramatic as some might have feared. Most wheat origins are trading below US$335 per tonne, compared to levels over US$400 per tonne a year ago. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa’s consumer food inflation slowed to 8,2% in August 2023 from 10% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this deceleration are similar to the previous month, mainly bread and cereals; meat; fish; oils and fats; milk, eggs and cheese; and vegetables. My view of the path forward remains unchanged from what we communicated last month. In essence, I recently stated in these pages that while there are renewed risks in global agriculture, such as India’s decision to ban specific categories of rice exports and the Black Sea Grain Deal Initiative that facilitated grains and oilseeds exports from Ukraine terminated and domestically the increases in fuel prices, we are still optimistic that South Africa’s consumer food inflation will continue to slow throughout the year into 2024. The products that could underpin the slowing food inflation trend will likely remain similar to those in the past few months. Notably, red meat prices, which have softened at the farm level, should continue on this trend at the retail level in the coming months. Fruit and vegetable prices should remain relatively affordable because of improved domestic supplies. We may, however, see temporary blips in the prices of products such as potatoes due to seasonality. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo first published on Agricultural Economics Today.

We are three weeks into the start of South Africa's 2023/24 summer crop production season. The uncertainty regarding the intensity of the El Niño weather event as well as the, possible higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall that this could bring is still a concern. However, the latest message from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) through their Seasonal Climate Watch on 28 August 2023 was encouraging, stating that "the multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of the country during mid-spring (Sep-Oct-Nov) and late-spring (Oct-Nov-Dec)." The Weather Service added that “the early-summer (Nov-Dec-Jan), however, indicates below-normal rainfall over the central parts of the country and above-normal rainfall for the north-east." This means that some regions of the country, mainly central to western, may not have a similar start of the season to the eastern areas. Still, the broad sentiment is that showers will likely support crop germination during the beginning of the 2023/24 production season. This is also an encouraging message for horticulture and livestock, as the rains will help production conditions in these subsectors. Click here to listen to the latest Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

Agbiz Grain recently hosted the Grain & Oilseeds Value Chain Symposium, focusing on "BUILDING CERTAINTY – CREATING SUSTAINABILITY." This event brought together key players in the South African grain and oilseeds market. Agbiz Grain members play an important role in the efficient functioning of the market, as they handle and store 70% of production and own 98% of JSE-registered storage sites. The symposium aimed to address the challenges and opportunities facing the industry. It highlighted the sector's value chain challenges in 2023/24. The discussions included topics like sustainability and return on investment in the storage sector, future challenges such as access to stock and price convergence, the importance of traceability and regulatory compliance in grain storage, and strategies to ensure the insurability and financial security of the storage sector. To gain valuable insights from the event, you can click here to watch video recaps of the symposium and click here for more information.

Agbiz Grain Quarterly is a unique magazine featuring distinctive articles and content designed to keep the grain handling and storage industry informed of the latest news and issues of managerial and operational importance. The August issue focusses on the current topic of conversation in the grain industry – traceability. This subject will be front and foremost during the Agbiz Grain Symposium and these articles set the table for the debate and discussion at the symposium. Experts in this issue also address aspects relating to procedures surrounding injuries on duty as well as the latest developments around employment equity regulations. Also in the August issue are articles on the latest procedural requirements for water use licence applications as well as an overview of some new and unique approaches to physical grain trading. We look at losses in the malting barley storage sector and discuss Australia and America's views on grain traceability, along with a local perspective on the same. Download your free version of this exciting publication here. 

The upcoming weather forecast presents a stark divide in conditions across the country. In the northern regions, expect warm weather with minimal rainfall in the coming days. However, a potent upper-air cut-off low is anticipated to form over the southwestern parts of the country by Sunday, introducing dramatic changes. Ahead of this system, isolated thundershowers may emerge over the western to central regions during the weekend. While the exact location of the low remains uncertain, forecasts lean toward its development on Sunday, primarily favoring the southern areas. This deep low is likely to bring cold, windy conditions and significant rainfall, especially in the southern mountainous areas, which could benefit dam levels in the Eastern Cape. Current forecasts indicate a southeastward track of the system, resulting in widespread rainfall in the winter rainfall region and the southern parts of the country. However, rainfall in the northern parts, except possibly the far eastern/northeastern areas, is expected to remain relatively low. As the system traverses the southern interior and moves eastward over the Eastern Cape by Monday, dry westerly to southerly winds are expected to sweep across the central to northern regions, bringing lower temperatures. Read full report on the CUMULUS season 2023/2024 update by J Malherbe, R Kuschke here.

This article, highlights the critical issues facing fragile and conflict-affected states, worsened by the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and economic instability. These nations struggle with displacement, fiscal constraints, and weak growth prospects. The pandemic has exacerbated economic challenges, leading to revenue losses and rising government debt in 39 fragile states. These nations share vulnerabilities such as weak institutions, large informal sectors, and governance issues. Additionally, instability, poverty, and climate risks are taking a toll, especially in countries like Chad, Guinea Bissau, Burkina Faso, Yemen, Somalia, and Pacific islands. The IMF plays a crucial role by providing financing, policy advice, and capacity development. The 2022 IMF Strategy for Fragile States prioritizes tailored support, intensified dialogue, and capacity development. Key goals include revenue enhancement, debt management, governance improvement, and better economic statistics. The article underscores the importance of consulting with governments to design effective reforms and emphasizes the IMF's commitment to practical, sustained in-country support. It highlights that state-building requires patience and collaboration with external donors to strengthen institutions and foster inclusive growth. Click here to read full article first published in IMF Blogs. 

The latest update on South Africa's supply chain provides an overview of the current state of international trade and logistics challenges. Commercial ports experienced an increase in container handling, with an average of 8,612 containers per day, albeit hindered by inclement weather, equipment breakdowns, vessel disruptions, and load-shedding. Severe vessel ranging impacted Cape Town, with one vessel losing 64 operational hours, while Durban faced delays due to adverse weather and high swells. The Transnet National Port Authority (TNPA) completed the revetment project at Port of Port Elizabeth ahead of schedule, benefiting bulk oil carriers and liquid nitrogen gas vessels. Cable theft on the rail network briefly disrupted operations. In the container market, negative sentiment prevails due to throughput challenges, capacity issues, and declining freight rates, despite carriers' efforts to control capacity. Rising fuel costs due to OPEC supply cuts and developments like Maersk's CMA CGM deal affecting their green strategy add to the complexity. In international air freight, cargo to and from South Africa increased, led by outbound cargo, while Cape Town saw a monthly cargo increase of 4%, and Durban experienced a 5% decrease. Globally, air cargo tonnages increased by 4%, with higher capacity and average prices. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
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