According to information published by the United Nations Joint Coordination Centre, as of 20 June 2023, approximately one-quarter of all grain and oilseed volumes shipped under the Black Sea Grain Initiative were destined for the People’s Republic of China; making it the single largest recipient of food and feed commodities. Under the plan, which allows for commercial food and fertiliser exports from eligible Ukrainian ports, approximately 32,1 million tonnes of food and feed grains and oilseeds have shipped to world markets. Of this volume, over 7,2 million tonnes was shipped to China, including 5,6 million tonnes of maize, 1,8 million tonnes of sunflower seed meal, 370 000 tonnes of sunflower oil, and 340 000 tonnes of barley. See the full report by the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service in Beijing here. 

In March 2023, European Union (EU) agri-food trade surplus continued to progress, reaching +EUR 6,9 billion, a 28% increase month-on-month. This improvement was due to a significant increase in exports, which largely compensated for a rebound in imports. EU exports in March 2023 reached EUR 21,5 billion, a 16% increase compared to February 2023 (and 14% higher than March 2022). Cumulative exports (from January to March 2023) reached EUR 58,2 billion, a 13% increase compared to the same period in 2022. Dynamic exports for cereal preparations, preparations of fruit and nuts, and dairy products led to an increase at the start of the year. Conversely, EU imports rose to EUR 14,6 billion in March, increasing by 10% month-on-month and reversing a three-month slide. Cumulative imports in the first quarter of 2023 remained 10% higher compared to the same period in 2022, primarily due to higher imports of cereals as well as oilseeds and protein crops. Click here to read the full report. 

Currently, 73 million people in eastern and southern Africa suffer from acute food insecurity, and short-term responses to high food and fertiliser prices exacerbate the problem. The focus should shift towards long-term investments and innovative policies that enable farmers to respond to market signals and environmental incentives. This includes reallocating public support programmes towards innovation systems, skills development, and productive infrastructure, investing in climate-smart agriculture, and leveraging regional trade to enhance food system resilience. The World Bank and development partners are working with countries to establish food security crisis preparedness plans and support resilient agricultural production systems in various African countries. Click here to read the full article by World Bank Blogs. 

The Citrus Growers' Association of South Africa (CGA) is urging the Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development to address unfair pest regulations imposed by the European Union (EU) at the upcoming AU-EU Agriculture Ministerial Conference. These regulations, concerning false coddling moth (FCM) and citrus black spot (CBS), are posing a significant threat to South Africa's citrus industry and the 140 000 jobs it supports. The introduction of new FCM regulations in the previous export season resulted in substantial losses, and it is estimated that approximately 20% of oranges produced for Europe may not be shipped this year due to the regulations. The CGA argues that the regulations lack scientific basis and highlighted the industry's effective pest management system. Despite months of consultations, no progress has been made in resolving the issue. The CGA emphasises the need to address these regulations at the conference to protect the industry's profitability and sustainability. Read the full statement here.

After eight months of South Africa’s food inflation at levels above 12,3%, May 2023 data decelerated to 12,0%, down from 14,3% in April. The food product prices primarily underpinning this moderation in food inflation are bread and cereals, meat, fish, oils and fats, and fruit. Slowing food inflation could be a central theme for the second half of the year (assuming that there are no significant weaknesses in the rand/dollar exchange rate), and the products mentioned above will continue driving the trend. More specifically, red meat prices, which have softened at the farm level, should continue on this trend at the retail level in the coming months. Fruit prices will probably remain on a similar declining trend as the harvest across South Africa continues, and domestic supplies have improved. Read the full article by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo, first published on mg.co.za here.

From a maize supply perspective, South Africa is in a relatively strong position. According to recent estimates by the Crop Estimates Committee, the country's 2022/23 commercial maize production could reach 16,1 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year and the third largest on record. Given South Africa's annual maize needs are roughly 12 million tonnes; the country could have over 3 million tonnes for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year that started in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2022/23 production year). This ample harvest materialised through farmers' persistent efforts to plant even beyond the optimal planting window, which closed in December before the entire area of 2,6 million hectares was planted as heavy rainfall disrupted farmers' activity. Read the full article and listen to Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo here. 

There is a strong link between trusting banks and trusting democracy. It is therefore prudent for the government to consult the banking sector before promulgating policies that affect agriculture and food security. Agbiz Grain emphasises the importance of the banking sector in promoting economic growth and job creation. In the linked article, first published in Landbouweekblad, Wessel Lemmer, general manager of Agbiz Grain, discusses this issue.

In her remarks at the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, expressed gratitude to President Macron for hosting the summit and introduced the new World Bank president, Ajay Banga. She highlighted the significant changes in the world since the creation of the IMF and World Bank, with a larger number of countries and substantial economic growth, but also mentioned the imbalances in areas such as youth and capital distribution and climate impact. Georgieva emphasised the need for a change in mindset and a comprehensive approach to address these imbalances, including focusing on the resilience of people, society, and the planet. Read the full report first published by the IMF here.

Technological change and international trade have a significant impact on each other, driving economic growth and progress. However, the combination of these factors can also create polarisation and intensify geopolitical tensions. Technological advancements lead to new goods, processes, and modes of transportation, which affect trade and promote development. Trade, in turn, influences technological change by creating a larger market and fostering competition. While trade and technology have a positive overall effect on development, there are winners and losers, and policies must address the challenges faced by those left behind. Governments should focus on strengthening the social safety net and promoting trade and technology while ensuring domestic security. Click here to read the full article first published by the International Monetary Fund.

The World Economic Forum and its partner institute, Business Unity South Africa (BUSA), invite you to take part in the Executive Opinion Survey 2023/24 to assess the level of competitiveness of South Africa in an international comparison. This annual survey is a major component of the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, as well as other WEF insight pieces. The survey provides the key ingredient that turns the Global Competitiveness Report into a representative annual measure of a nation’s economic environment. A truly unique source of data, the Survey has also long been used by numerous international and non-governmental organisations, investors, think tanks, and academia for empirical and policy work. Please follow this link to complete the 2023/24 survey. 

Companies face intense pressure to act on sustainability issues, and many are committing to ambitious environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives. So, why is so little being achieved on environmental issues? Call it the gap between intentions and reality. Building a better business for a net-zero world often requires tough trade-offs. Investors see the benefits of action but are unwilling to accept lower returns. Customers push companies to change but don’t want to give up convenience and low prices. And early-stage investment in climate technology largely targets sectors that account for a lower share of overall emissions. Read more in The new sustainability mandate published by PWC.

South Africa reported two outbreaks of highly pathogenic H7 bird flu in poultry east of Johannesburg, the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) said on Monday. In total 9 500 farm poultry died from the virus in the town of Victor Khanye in Mpumalanga, with one location having 2 000 poultry and the other 7 500, WOAH said, citing South African authorities. The strain detected was H7, which is different from the H5N1 one that has killed several hundred million birds around the world. Read the article, first published on Reuters.com here. 

The IFPA Southern Africa Conference, organised by the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA), is a highly anticipated event in the fresh produce industry. Set to take place from 1 to 3 August in Cape Town, South Africa, the conference offers valuable insights from local and international experts. Key topics include demand creation, market needs, consumer trends, and logistics solutions. Attendees can expect engaging sessions, a talk show with industry leaders, and discussions on sustainability and logistics. The conference also features a tradeshow, networking events, and a Women's Fresh Perspectives Breakfast, promoting women's empowerment in leadership. Early bird registration is available until 7 July 2023, on the IFPA website. Click here for more information and to register.

The world experienced significant changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent events such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and increased tensions between the Western world and China. These developments have led to heightened uncertainty and negative impacts on global economic growth, food prices, trade, and international relations. The duration and outcome of the Russia–Ukraine conflict remain uncertain, and its negative consequences are expected to persist in the medium and long term. As measured by the FAO, the price index for dairy products increased in 2021 but declined by 20,97% from June 2022 to May 2023 due to ample export availabilities and seasonal high milk production. Prices of unprocessed milk in the EU and the USA also experienced fluctuations. The South African economy has shown disappointing performance, with a minimal increase in GDP since 2019. The high unemployment rate and economic conditions do not support optimistic views for the immediate future's demand for consumer products, including dairy products. Read the May 2023 edition of the South African Milk Processors Organisation (SAMPRO) report here.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.