The upcoming United Nations climate change summit, COP28, is set to unfold in Dubai, UAE, from November 30 to December 12, drawing world leaders and representatives from 197 countries. Tackling fossil fuels, reducing carbon emissions, and addressing climate-related challenges are expected to dominate discussions. The unresolved issue of international funding for climate change adaptation, particularly contributions from industrialised nations, will be a key point of contention. Additionally, the summit will witness the first review of countries' progress towards the Paris Agreement, signed almost eight years ago, amidst growing concerns about the inadequacy of current climate plans to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. COP28 will be held against a backdrop of extreme climate events, emphasising the urgency of global cooperation to combat climate change. With devastating floods, heatwaves, and record-high greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, the conference aims to devise improved targets and measures for climate action. The agenda includes negotiations on the Global Stocktake, assessing countries' progress towards the Paris Agreement, and operationalizing the loss and damages fund. Click here to read full article by aljazeera.com.

The Road Freight Association (RFA) has strongly criticised the South African government, particularly its logistics utility, Transnet, for the severe neglect and inefficiencies in the country's supply chain. The RFA expressed dismay over ongoing congestion issues at major ports, including Durban, where containers face significant delays at anchorage for up to three weeks, and Richards Bay coal terminal, where ore tipper queues cause traffic backlogs. CEO Gavin Kelly highlighted the government's failure to address these issues promptly, emphasising that the deterioration of ports and rail has been a slow, continuous process over the past decade. Despite warnings and South Africa's ports ranking poorly in the World Bank's Container Performance Index, the government allegedly took no action to reverse the decline. The RFA statement blamed Transnet's management and government officials for allowing the collapse of logistics infrastructure, stressing that private sector involvement is crucial for revitalising the supply chain. While acknowledging the formation of the National Logistics Crisis Committee (NLCC) to address decay and corruption, the RFA expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of the plans and projects proposed by the NLCC. Gavin Kelly urged greater private sector control over state-owned entities, emphasising the need for private businesses to lead the efforts to revive and sustain efficient supply chains in South Africa. Read full article by freightnews.co.za here.

The latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer, released on November 27, indicates a recovery in global merchandise trade volumes, led by increased sales and production of automobiles and electronic components. Despite this positive trend, the near-term outlook is marked by uncertainty due to mixed economic results and growing geopolitical tensions. The current barometer index stands at 100.7, surpassing the August reading of 99.1 and nearing the baseline value of 100. This suggests a gradual return of merchandise trade volume to its medium-term trend in the second half of 2023. However, uncertainties persist, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions and economic variability. The barometer serves as a leading indicator for world trade, with values above 100 indicating above-trend trade volumes. World merchandise trade volume showed a modest 0.2% increase in Q2 2023, but a year-on-year decline of 0.5%. The third quarter is expected to exhibit stronger trade statistics, influenced by accelerated GDP growth in the United States and China, though a stagnant European Union economy continues to pose challenges. While the WTO maintains its October 2023 forecast of a 0.8% increase in global trade volume for 2023, recent developments in the Middle East have introduced downside risks. Read the full Goods Trade Barometer here.

The National Water Amendment Bill was published for public comment on 17 November 2023. The due date for written submissions is 16 January 2023. Objectives of the Bill The objectives of the Bill include: Ensuring equitable water allocation and optimizing the use of water in support of the guiding principles of National Water Act; Prohibiting the undesirable consequences of private water trading; Providing for the review period of the national water resource strategy to be increased to 10 years; To further provide for the protection of water source areas; To further provide for the transfer of water use authorisations; To provide for the reallocation of water; Repealing the right to declare an existing lawful water use; To further regulate the governance matters of water user associations and their membership thereof; To provide for the transformation of water user associations. Agbiz is still in the process of studying the provisions of the Bill in detail and preparing draft comments, which we will send to members for their input. However, even at first glance there seems to be quite a few concerning provisions contained in the Bill. Click here to read full report by Agbiz Head: Legal Intelligence, Annelize Crosby. 

Food inflation has been topical over the past few months and South Africa saw double-digit levels from mid-2022 to mid-2023. This was not unique to South Africa but a global phenomenon underpinned by various factors, including drought in South America; China’s strong demand for grains and oilseed; higher energy prices and the Russia-Ukraine war. Positively, from March 2023, South Africa’s consumer food price inflation began to slow, from 14,4% at that time to 8,0% in September 2023. The product prices underpinning the deceleration throughout this period were primarily bread and cereals; meat; fish and oils and fats. But October 2023 disrupted the six month consecutive decline, with consumer food inflation having quickened to 8,8% from 8% the previous month. The product prices underpinning this increase were mainly milk, eggs, cheese, fruit and vegetables. Still, I believe the recent rise in the price of these products will probably be a temporary blip. They are a reaction to brief supply constraints in the past few months. The avian flu was the main issue behind the egg supply constraints, which remain a challenge although not as acute as we saw in September and October. Regarding vegetables, potatoes were mainly the driver of the prices in the basket as the harvest was limited following quality challenges caused by irrigation disruptions in some fields due to load-shedding in much of the year’s first half.  Click here to read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo first published in mg.co.za.

Over the past few weeks, we travelled across most regions of South Africa for meetings with our members, which was also an opportunity to view the summer crop planting progress. Positively, in the various areas, farmers planted early in the season, with soil preparations having started as early as September, particularly in the eastern and central parts of South Africa. The planting is in full swing in these parts of the country, with mainly the western regions yet to see notable progress. The advantageous part of the season was the favourable soil moisture of the past season. Furthermore, the rains of the past couple of weeks further improved field conditions and added to the already existing optimism about the season. Still, the concerns of an El Nino are not lost in the minds of South African farmers. They are watching this, and they are worried about its impact. What has provided comfort so far are the favourable rainfall we have received and the weather forecasts that consistently paint a promising picture that rain may continue until early March 2024, which is when the El-Nino-induced dryness may begin. Be that as it may, the famers we have interacted with were not deterred by these concerns. They believe that the South African Crop Estimates Committee's estimates that 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed planting would increase by 2% to 4,5 million hectares will likely materialize. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo here.

The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee continue to paint a reasonably positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest, albeit with minor downward monthly revisions of the crop size. The primary issue on farmers' minds is perhaps not crop size but the deterioration in quality following heavy floods in the Western Cape in September. The Western Cape is a significant producer of winter crops, accounting for roughly two-thirds of South Africa's total winter crop output. The Crop Estimates Committee, in its fourth production estimates for the 2023/24 season, lowered the wheat harvest by 0,7% from October to 2,15 million tonnes. The marginal downward revision was mainly on the Western Cape's crop. Still, this projected overall harvest is 2% up from the last season. Broadly, the provinces behind the current robust national wheat harvest forecast are the Western Cape (53% of the overall harvest), Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo. Admittedly, while the Northern Cape and Free State are still amongst the leading wheat producers, their expected harvest is less than the 2022/23 season. The expected large harvest in the Western Cape and Limpopo overshadows the decline in harvest in other provinces. There are also likely decent wheat harvests in other provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and North West. The current expected crop of 2,15 million tonnes is well above the 10-year average harvest of 1,80 million tonnes. Read full report by Wandile Sihlobo here.

Food inflation has been topical over the past few months, and South Africa saw double-digit levels from mid-2022 to mid-2023. This was not unique to South Africa but a global phenomenon underpinned by various factors, including drought in South America, China's strong demand for grains and oilseed, higher energy prices, and the Russia-Ukraine war, amongst other factors. Positively, from March 2023, South Africa's consumer food price inflation began to slow, from 14,4% at that time to 8,0% in September 2023. The product prices underpinning this deceleration throughout this period were primarily bread and cereals; meat; fish; and oils and fats. But October 2023 disrupted the six months consecutive decline, with South Africa's consumer food inflation having quickened to 8,8%, from 8,0% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this increase were mainly milk, eggs and cheese; fruit; and vegetables. Still, I believe that for all these products, the recent price rises will likely be a temporary blip. They are a reaction to brief supply constraints in the past few months. The avian influenza was the main issue behind the eggs supply constraints, which remain a challenge although not as acute as we saw in September and October. Click here to listen to full episode on Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

Agbiz and Agbiz Grain recently hosted the 7th Virtual SHEQ Workshop, centred on Occupational Hygiene in the Workplace. The event featured a comprehensive presentation by Ebenaeser Environmental Consultants (EEC), a renowned professional practice addressing safety, health, hygiene, and environmental needs in various industries. EEC's expertise, aligned with the Occupational Health & Safety Act and Noise-Induced Hearing Loss regulations, was spotlighted. Affiliated with reputable organisations and accredited by SANAS, EEC stands out as an Approved Inspection Authority, ensuring compliance with the Department of Employment and Labour standards. The workshop provided valuable insights into occupational hygiene, benefiting professionals in Road Construction, Crushing and Screening, Mining, Food Processing, Construction, Manufacturing, and Education. For a detailed exploration of EEC's expertise, click here to watch the full workshop presentation. Alternatively, for those seeking an in-depth read, the complete workshop documentation is available by clicking here. Thank you for your participation, and we look forward to your continued engagement in future events.

Agbiz Grain Quarterly's November issue spotlights the 2023 Agbiz Grain and Oilseeds Value Chain Symposium, featuring discussions on profitability, traceability, and food safety. In an exclusive Groot Plaas TV interview, Wessel Lemmer, Agbiz Grain's general manager, addresses traceability challenges in the grain sector, click here to watch. This edition explores silo fumigation, occupational health, and profiles industry figure Willie Dreyer. It dissects the silo tariff conundrum, explores soya bean benefits in the American context, and delves into policy and legislation for 2023 with a preview of 2024. The magazine also emphasizes the importance of traceability and sheds light on fumigation practices, workplace health, and safety. Agbiz Grain Quarterly is a vital resource for industry professionals. Download your free copy here to stay informed on every aspect of the evolving grain industry. 

Recognising the potential of the nut industry to stimulate job growth and boost rural economies, the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) invested in walnut production, establishing the first orchard in South Africa in 1998. The project proved challenging, leading to its sale four years ago. Investment banker Chris Edwards, persuaded by opportunities in agriculture, transformed Rotondo Walnuts into Africa's largest walnut farm. Despite challenges such as limited local production information and fluctuating nut prices during COVID-19, Rotondo remains resilient, benefiting from lower production costs in South Africa. The farm now holds over 90% of the local market share for walnuts, with a focus on quality and adapting international practices to local conditions. Walnut consumption is growing globally, and Rotondo's success is attributed to both exports and rising local demand. With only 5% of the world's average per capita consumption, South Africa has ample room for growth. Chris Edwards believes that the superior taste of South African walnuts compared to imported varieties will drive further local demand. Despite initial challenges and the long-term nature of walnut farming, Rotondo aims to nurture the local industry, as exemplified by the launch of the Walnut Institute of Southern Africa, which provides knowledge and trees to new walnut farmers. Edwards envisions South African walnuts making a significant mark globally, disproving initial investment skepticism. Click here to read full article deprived from farmersweekly.co.za.

In a thought-provoking presentation at the Tenth International Table Grape Symposium, Prof. David Hughes, emeritus professor in food marketing at Imperial College, London, expressed concern over table grapes venturing into the challenging territory of commodities. Highlighting the impact of hard discounters on declining fresh produce consumption, he emphasised the failure to communicate the health and value-for-money message effectively. While berries have taken centre stage, accounting for 30% of total fresh fruit spending in the UK, grapes face pressure from hard discounters, driving prices down. Prof. Hughes pointed out that the grape market is being overshadowed, and addressing the issue of commoditization is crucial to sustaining the industry. Despite the challenges, Prof. Hughes identified winners in the fruit industry, citing brands like Pink Lady, Rockit apples, and Halos easy peelers as successful examples. These brands differentiate themselves with a clear and resonant message, appealing to consumers. As the South African table grape industry aims to expand its presence in China, Prof. Hughes offered a cautionary note, advising careful communication due to China's potential to both make and break markets. Looking ahead, he emphasised the increasing importance of environmental ratings and a product's ecological footprint, suggesting that these factors will play a significant role in consumers' decision-making processes. Click here to read full article first published on FreshPlaza.com.

In this episode focused on climate change, the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department delves into the challenging intersection of global warming, fiscal policy, and economic constraints. The destructive impacts of climate change are evident, yet the costs associated with climate action pose a formidable challenge for policymakers. With high levels of debt, increasing interest rates, and subdued economic growth, countries face a complex trilemma: balancing climate goals, ensuring fiscal sustainability, and navigating political feasibility. Economists Christine Richmond and Raphael Lam, Deputy Division Chiefs in the Fiscal Affairs Department, discuss the intricate tradeoffs governments must consider in managing their limited resources to address both environmental and economic imperatives. The podcast sheds light on the critical role of fiscal policy in climate mitigation efforts, emphasising the urgency for countries to find effective strategies that align with their economic realities. Richmond and Lam stress the need for innovative solutions and careful resource management to tackle the intertwined issues of climate change and fiscal challenges, highlighting the ongoing work of the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department in assisting countries in this intricate balancing act. Click here to listen to full episode by IMF Podcasts.

This update provides a consolidated overview of the South African supply chain, highlighting challenges faced in international trade. Commercial ports, handling an average of 8,486 containers per day, face ongoing operational constraints, including adverse weather conditions and equipment breakdowns. The inefficiencies at the Port of Cape Town are impacting nearby ports, leading to congestion and affecting business in Cape Town. A recent derailment on the Kaapmuiden section has further disrupted train services between Phalaborwa and Komatipoort. Internationally, the global container industry is grappling with challenges despite a surge in container throughput in September. Excess capacity growth raises concerns about maintaining recent freight rate gains. The air freight market in South Africa experienced substantial increases in both inbound and outbound cargo volumes. In the road freight trade, average queue times increased and transit times decreased, emphasising the complexities of the regional cross-border trade. Amid this crisis, urgent and collaborative efforts are underway to address the challenges faced by South Africa's commercial ports and logistics network. The government emphasises the importance of private-sector partnerships for infrastructure modernization and operational efficiency. Stakeholders are urged to unite with urgency to drive positive change and ensure the seamless movement of goods, critical for South Africa's economic growth. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update. 

The Global Berry Congress, a key event for the international berry business, revealed the formidable challenges and opportunities facing the soft fruit sector. Rabobank's Cindy van Rijswick addressed the audience, emphasising the demanding road ahead for berry suppliers, who must deliver higher-quality fruit amidst rising costs. While grower costs were slightly easing and container rates were falling, high interest rates, labour expenses, and unpredictable weather remained significant challenges. Despite a flat berry category and negative consumer sentiment, van Rijswick noted a slight recovery in consumer purchasing power, projecting improvement in the coming months. The event highlighted shifts in berry trends, including decreased Peruvian blueberry volumes due to El Nino and a focus on higher quality and consistency in the strawberry category. Colin Fain of Agronometrics provided insights into the blueberry business, stressing the industry's success in sustaining profitability through quality improvements and effective consumer promotions amid significant growth. Global blueberry production has surged by 77% since 2018, reaching 2.03 million metric tonnes in 2022. Fain underscored the need for continued focus on quality improvements to meet growing demand. The benchmark for quality has risen, making it crucial for producers to prioritise quality for sustained profitability and consumer satisfaction. Fain also highlighted the importance of driving efficiency in production, starting with the choice of variety, as the industry faces challenges such as climatic disruptions, rising input costs, and squeezed margins. With global production projected to reach 2.845 million metric tonnes by 2026, the industry faces the task of ensuring sustainable growth amidst complexities. Click here to read full article.

President Cyril Ramaphosa visited the Port of Richards Bay to assess the state of the port and efforts underway to address congestion. The President received a briefing from the leadership of Transnet on the current challenges at the port and the interventions underway to reduce congestion and improve efficiency. The high volume of trucks arriving at the Port of Richards Bay is the result of challenges in the rail system as well as the damage caused to conveyor belts during a fire in October 2021. The performance of the Northern Corridor railway line, which transports coal and other commodities to Richards Bay, has declined as a result of historical underinvestment in infrastructure, insufficient locomotives, and cable theft. Transnet has put in place a short-term plan to ramp up operations on the corridor, including the injection of four additional locomotives by the end of November 2023; an increase in the length of trains from 40 to 50 wagons; and the return of a conveyor belt at the Richards Bay Dry Bulk Terminal on an expedited basis by December 2023. Read full report by Vincent Magwenya, Spokesperson to the President here. 

Emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the hope for an extended period of global stability was swiftly shattered as a conflict erupted in the Black Sea region. Subsequently, we have witnessed escalating global conflicts that have triggered significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape. This has prompted nations to reassess measures that disrupt worldwide trade, including export restrictions and pricing controls that impact global supply chains. Concurrently, the international community grapples with combating critical plant and animal diseases while grappling with the looming spectre of climate change. However, the imperative remains for businesses to persevere and adapt to the evolving global terrain. In echoing Charles Darwin's theory, it is not the strongest species that survives, but rather those that prove most adaptable to change. In light of these challenges, the 2024 Agbiz Congress theme intentionally recognises the evolving global panorama and redirects its focus towards sustaining growth in this uncertain environment. Esteemed speakers will share their perspectives on how to navigate and adapt to the complexities posed by geopolitical, environmental, and social instability. Aligned with Agbiz's ethos, the Congress aims to seek solutions that will propel the sector towards prosperity. To learn more and register for the event, we have launched our 2024 Agbiz Congress website, where you can find comprehensive information and details about this vital gathering. Visit the website to stay updated and secure your spot at this essential event. Learn more and register for the 2024 Agbiz Congress here.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

In the latest edition of Fresh Quarterly, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
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