Weekly Airline Capacity Update
Updated January 24, 2022
Greetings!
Airlines are back to focusing on March capacity and further out adjustments.
This week the following airline earnings calls are happening: Alaska, Hawaiian, JetBlue, and Southwest. Links below for each event.
Delta in their Q4 earnings call this past week noted:
- Started the year recovery at 25% and ended at 80%
- Business travel is 60% restored in 4Q
- Mainline pilots hiring at 100-200 per month and pace expected to continue through 2023
- Don't see a pilot shortage, challenge is getting pilots at both Delta and regional carriers through training and getting into the right seat with the right number of flight hours
Thanks to everyone that joined us in Palm Springs for our first Airport Roundtable of 2022! A special thanks to The Quotient Group, Visit Greater Palm Springs, and Palm Springs International Airport for hosting an amazing event!
Our next Airport Roundtable will be hosted by Columbia International Airport in Columbia, SC. Dates will be announced soon!
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Capacity Update
This week only Hawaiian made close in cuts to January, mostly due to interisland capacity decreases.
Alaska cancelled six routes in February and March, one in April (Kansas City (MCI) to Portland (PDX)) and one in May (Dallas (DAL) to PDX).
Frontier reduced March domestic capacity 3% week over week. They cancelled Wichita (ICT) to Las Vegas (LAS) and Philadelphia (PHL) to Savannah (SAV) in March. In March, 15 domestic markets had their capacity reduced by more than 80% and the majority of those markets were to Florida. They cancelled Atlanta (ATL) to Chicago (ORD) from April onward. In May, Frontier cancelled ORD to Denver (DEN), LAS, and Phoenix (PHX) for the rest of the booking window. In August, Frontier cancelled ORD to Tampa (TPA) for the remainder of the booking window. Other markets that Frontier has removed from future schedules are: ORD to Dallas (DFW), Denver (DEN), Las Vegas (LAS), Miami (MIA), Ontario (ONT), Salt Lake City (SLC), St Louis (STL) and Trenton (TTN). Frontier announced this week they would begin to serve Chicago Midway (MDW) on April 28, 2022 to 10 destinations (ATL, DFW, DEN, LAS, ONT, PHX, TPA, TTN, FLL, and MCO). Currently there are only Cancun (CUN), Orlando (MCO), Punta Cana (PUJ), and San Juan (SJU) still scheduled to fly from ORD going forward. Frontier has not filed the MDW markets as of yet.
Breeze filed special Kentucky Derby flights to Louisville (SDF) in five markets: Hartford (BDL), Islip (ISP), Norfolk (ORF), Providence (PVD), and Richmond (RIC). Breeze has also removed three markets from May onward: Canton/Akron (CAK) and Columbus (CMH) to New Orleans (MSY) and CMH to Tampa (TPA). They have reduced capacity in BDL to CMH, ORF and PIT from May onward. Breeze also announced this week what initial routes would use their new A-220 aircraft coming into service soon. They also plan to announce new routes that will be using the A-220 in the coming weeks.
JetBlue lowered March domestic capacity 5% week over week largely due to capacity reductions in Newark (EWR) and Los Angeles (LAX). They also cancelled Fort Lauderdale (FLL) to Palm Springs (PSP) in March.
Spirit reduced March domestic capacity 6% week over week. They cancelled four markets in March: Detroit (DTW) to Denver (DEN) and Minneapolis (MSP), Columbus (CMH) to New Orleans (MSY), and Miami (MIA) to Myrtle Beach (MYR).
Rounding out the weekly changes the following airlines made minor changes. American filed new service between ORD and Martha's Vineyard (MVY) between March 7 and May 3, 2022. Southwest cancelled San Antonio (SAT) to Ft Lauderdale (FLL) in March. Delta has filed new service between LGA and Fort Walton Beach (VPS) from June through September 2022. Contour is taking over the Essential Air Service (EAS) contract from Boutique in Muscle Shoals (MSL) in March. Boutique is taking over the EAS contract from Air Choice One in Jackson, TN (MKL) and Cape Air is adding service to JFK from Saranac Lake (SLK) in another EAS market. Lastly in EAS news, Skywest (operating for United) announced it's intent to leave two upstate New York markets, Ogdensburg (OGS) and Plattsburgh (PLB) after a 90 day notice.
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TSA Update
January is currently at 77.9% of 2019 travelers. This is 6.3 points below where December finished and will likely continue to decline more before the end of the month.
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COVID Vaccination Update
In the US, 63.4% of the population, or ~210.3 million, have been fully vaccinated.
80.3% of all Americans >4 years old have had at least one shot.
83.9 million or 53.2% of Americans that are eligible have received a booster shot since August 13, 2021.
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Q4 2021 Earnings Calls
Alaska - Thursday, January 27, 2022 11:30 AM EST Link **This week**
Allegiant - Wednesday, February 2, 2022 430 PM EST Link
Frontier - TBD
Hawaiian - Tuesday, January 25, 2022 4:30 PM EST Link **This week**
JetBlue - Thursday, January 27, 2022 10:00 AM EST Link **This week**
SkyWest - Thursday, February 3, 2022 4:30 PM EST Link
Southwest - Thursday, January 27, 2022 12:30 PM EST Link **This week**
Spirit - Wednesday, February 9, 2022 10:00 AM EST Link
Sun Country - TBD
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Small Community Air Service Development Program (SCASDP) has been announced!
The government has released the solicitation order for the 2022 SCASD. It is due March 15, 2022. Here is a general overview of what to expect.
- 20 page limit
- Grants.gov registration process must be completed by airport as soon as possible (takes 2-4 weeks to complete)
- A DUNS number is required and registration in System for Award Management (SAM) is also required by the airport
- Max of 40 applicants will be awarded the $17m that is available
- Communities without existing air service can apply for SCASD
- Airport must be small hub or smaller sized
- A community may only have one active SCASD at a time
- EAS markets are not eligible
- Cost sharing or matching is not required for applications. However, applications that provide multiple levels of contributions (State, local, cash, and in-kind contributions) will be viewed more favorably
- Criteria that will be considered
- Air fares are higher than the national average air fares for all communities
- The community or consortium will provide a portion of the cost of the activity from local sources other than airport revenue sources
- The community or consortium has established or will establish a public-private partnership to facilitate air carrier service to the public
- The assistance will be used to help restore scheduled passenger air service that has been terminated
If you have any questions, please reach out to marietta.landon@ailevonpacific.com.
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Aviation News From the Past Week
The Americas
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Alaska Airlines to add larger jets to its Paine Field operation January 21, 2022
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American adds 3 new routes in leisure-focused expansion from Austin and Chicago January 23, 2022
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‘Bookings are recovering quickly’: American, United play waiting game as omicron leads to new losses January 20, 2022
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Facing pilot shortage, smaller airlines start giving big raises to pilots January 20, 2022
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Breeze unveils first 17 Airbus A220 routes with new first-class product January 19, 2022
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Frontier adds 2 new airports in 13-route expansion January 19, 2022
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JSX kicks off 2022 with a new route and expanded service in 2 others January 19, 2022
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Lynx Air To Serve Five Canadian Destinations January 20, 2022
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New US airline Northern Pacific Airways unveils its first Boeing 757 — and big ambitions January 20, 2022
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Southwest Is Doing What No One Thought It Would. It's a Master Class in Market ExpansionHow the low-cost carrier is achieving the unthinkable with a seemingly irrelevant strategy January 19, 2022
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United: Corporate Travel Recovery is 'TBD' January 21, 2022
EMEA
Asia/Pacific
Other
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