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In U.S. House races, incumbents nearly always win. That’s been true more than 90% of the time over the past decade. But now that Alaska has no House incumbent, we look at cash.
Money, at least in the special election for the remainder of the late Don Young’s term, is a proxy for strength. Pay attention to where it comes from. Even if money doesn’t buy votes in Congress, there’s evidence it buys access, and lawmakers are likely to go back to their donors election after election.
At the start of the week, we got our first glimpse into the campaigns of the candidates who filed after Young died, which is nearly all of them. The campaign finance reports dropped Monday and I spent the latter part of Memorial Day looking into them for you. We learned that Sarah Palin is raising most of her money in small contributions and from outside of Alaska. Not surprising, given that she’s a conservative celebrity in the Lower 48. Al Gross, who ran a $19 million campaign for U.S. Senate two years ago, has a list of prior donors to draw from. And Nick Begich, the Republican entrepreneur running the largest campaign operation, is funding about half of it with a personal loan. More on the reports in my story below.
Whoever wins the special has a leg up on the regular election, for the two-year term that starts in January. Yesterday was the filing deadline for that race. A total of 31 candidates are running. Nearly all of them are also running in the special, with one notable exception: Santa Claus. Claus, the progressive city councilman from North Pole, is a favorite among Alaska liberals and environmentalists but he kept to his pledge to only run in the special. It’s unclear where his voters will go in the regular election. The positions other candidates have taken on development issues are sure to disappoint a lot of ardent conservationists.
More than 96,000 Alaskans have already mailed in their ballots in the special election. If you’re not among them, you have until June 11. Lost your ballot under a pile of junk mail and bills? Scroll down for a story from my colleague Katie Anastas on how to vote in person.
Thank you. Be well. Send me news tips and story ideas.
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