Money isn’t everything, but plenty of research shows the candidate who spends the most usually wins. Still, it’s complicated.
Just take Peltola. She won the special election in August despite spending far less than Palin or Begich.
And studies that show big spenders usually win don’t solve the chicken-or-egg question: Is it money that helps the best funded candidate win? Or do people see that a candidate is likely to win so they give her more money?
People do love to give to winners. As Peltola’s experience proves. Check out the campaign finance report she filed before the special election, covering most of July. Peltola’s campaign contributions: $136,000.
Now check out the report covering August and the five days after Aug. 31, when we learned that Peltola won the special election. Her contribution total: $1.5 million.
We can look at this cynically. No doubt, among the thousands of people who gave money to Peltola, are some who hope it gets them influence. Or we can look at this as a natural law of human dynamics. Success attracts cash, and once you have a staff, fundraising consultants and a big travel budget, you can raise even more money. The Peltola campaign has momentum.
She is certainly not unstoppable. Republican voters could make full use of the ranked choice ballot to render Peltola the shortest serving Alaska Congress member since statehood.
Or she could follow in the footsteps of the last Alaskan to win a special congressional election. Don Young kept the seat for the rest of his life.
That’s it for me today. Thanks for reading. I’m at the Alaska Federation of Natives convention this afternoon. Here's my latest story on Peltola's keynote speech. For Alaska’s congressional delegation, these are among the most important speeches they’ll make all year.
Let me leave you with a few upcoming dates:
• AFN’s candidates forum is at 9:45 a.m. Saturday, starting with the U.S. House race, then U.S. Senate and governor.
• Debate for the State continues next week on Alaska Public Media television. The U.S. House candidates face off Wednesday and the Senate candidates on Thursday. The debates start at 7 p.m. both evenings.
• Early voting locations open Monday. And it’s not too late to request an absentee ballot to vote by mail.
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