When she learned she’d overcome long odds, that she’ll make history as the first Alaska woman and the first Alaska Native elected to the U.S. House, Mary Peltola did not bust loose in a victory dance.

She did not hoist her campaign manager in the air. She did not pump her fists, screaming of their success. All tables remained un-jumped upon.

Instead, Peltola did a long series of media interviews with remarkable composure, remaining on message and organized. She honored Don Young’s legacy. She spoke of gratitude and humility.

Later, she had takeout. Thai. It was her birthday, after all.

Peltola always said she would focus on the November election, no matter the outcome of the special. That was the plan when the data crunchers thought she’d lose. She stuck with it even when she won.

This result is still sinking in for a lot of Alaskans. It’s remarkable. It’s historic. But the next election is only 68 days from now. Let’s take a peek at what could change.

Mary Peltola giving her first interview as congresswoman-elect, as seen through ADN photographer Marc Lester's iPhone. Next to her is campaign manager Anton McParland. (Liz Ruskin/Alaska Public Media)

Expect a lot of national money to flood in, from Democratic and Republican groups. Control of the House is at stake.

The big question is whether Alaska conservatives will learn from their mistake and make use of ranked choice voting. If so, they could avoid splitting their votes and Alaska would send another Republican to Congress.

I’ve got a lot of observations today. You can stop reading now and we’ll still be friends. If you haven’t had enough of me yet, read on.

Only half of Nick Begich voters chose Sarah Palin as their second. I think we’ll see a lot of treasure spent on various “rank the red” campaigns. Expect media carpet bombing as well as micro-targeting. Let me know if you see carrier pigeons.

Maybe seeing Palin lose will inspire the GOP to invigorate the Begich campaign. 

We’ll surely see more attacks on Peltola. She emerged from the elections thus far in nearly pristine condition. That will change as Republican operatives examine her every vote over the decade she served in the state House. She will be tied to Nancy Pelosi and George Soros.

“I know that this makes me a much bigger target, and a lot more vulnerable,” Peltola said Wednesday night, after the Thai food. “I just am going to be working that much harder.”

We saw some of Begich’s new attack strategy on display at the Alaska Oil and Gas Association-sponsored candidate forum Wednesday afternoon.

“Most people in this room can agree that Joe Biden's Secretary of the Interior, Deb Haaland, has launched an all-out assault on Alaskan oil development,” Begich said in his opening statement. “And Deb Haaland has identified a candidate in this race who is aligned with her vision for Alaska. She's chosen to donate to Mary Peltola.”

Haaland contributed $300 to Peltola in June, for the primary.

There are many reasons to suspect that big national money and renewed attention won’t change the outcome in November. For one thing, the Republican candidates seem hellbent on attacking each other, rather than seeking each other’s second votes.

At the forum Wednesday, Begich went on to attack Palin. Palin then denounced him for the denouncement.

“Negative, Nick, you're what's wrong with politics today,” she said in her opening.

If Palin somehow loses to Begich in November, don’t expect a lot of her voters to choose him as their second, or anyone. She’s had only terrible things to say about ranked choice voting. 

Here are some moments from last night I keep coming back to: 

At her election headquarters, Palin suggested it should have been “winner take all” and noted that she was the top vote-getter in the 48-way primary.

“We won pretty handily, right? And from there, though, oh ranked choice voting comes kicking in. And then it becomes convoluted, complicated, like, 'Oh, how many second place votes did you get? How many third place did you get?' I don't know. I was telling people all along, don't comply,” she said.

I’ve listened to that over and over. It seems nonstrategic for her. If it were a winner-take-all general, we would’ve known Peltola won 16 days ago. To win, Palin needed Begich’s second votes, and she didn’t get enough of them.

Another thing I’ve listened to on repeat – Palin saying Wednesday night that she doesn’t expect to challenge the election results. 

“I will never backtrack on my, you know, what I preach over the years about the will of the people. You adhere to the will of the people,” said the candidate who has embraced Donald Trump’s push to discredit the 2020 election results. “The vote is that … It was a legally sanctioned process.”

Also stunning: Palin, even in defeat, went far out of her way to praise Peltola. 

“She's a beautiful soul. She's a great mother. She has a heart for Alaska. And yeah, we just represent very, very polarizing views, really. I want smaller, smarter government. And she's a Democrat, which kind of says it all,” Palin said. “However, she, as a person, I love her.”

Maybe displays of that affection will disappear in the weeks ahead. Stay tuned. Feel free to email me with news tips and story ideas. Thanks for reading.

- Liz Ruskin

lruskin@alaskapublic.org

Follow me on twitter: @lruskin

Know others who need our Alaska At-Large newsletter? Forward this email so they can subscribe free here.

Here’s how Alaska’s first ranked choice election was counted

The Alaska Beacon dives into how vote were counted and how the sorting works.

READ MORE  

Read more election coverage at alaskapublic.org.

We want to make sure you are getting the newsletters that matter to you. Manage your preferences, change your subscriptions, sign up for our other newsletters, and update your contact information by clicking Update Profile below.