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The fate of the three candidates in the special election for U.S. House is sealed. Has been since Aug. 16. Written in indelible ink, in tiny ovals. Nothing can change the outcome now. But we don’t know who Alaska’s new member of Congress is yet. Why the big reveal on Aug. 31?
Let’s talk about why we’re in this state of suspended animation.
I’ve heard it said that the 15-day wait is because the ranked choice ballots take longer to count. Not so.
This post-election delay has been a feature of Alaska law since forever. Ballots postmarked by Election Day have 10 days to arrive. That period is extended to 15 days for general election ballots that are mailed from overseas. (Fun fact: That means for the August ballots that arrive BETWEEN days 10 and 15, the general election side will be counted, but not the primary side.)
In years past, we paid no attention to this legal waiting period. It was usually obvious who had won long before that. By the 15th day, the confetti was all swept up. Tears of joy and sorrow had dried. New business cards were on order.
With ranked choice voting, though, there’s a new step. Say it with me: the third-place finisher will be eliminated and his or her ballots will be re-allocated according to the voters’ second-choice, if any.
This is where the old law meets the new. The Division of Elections has decided not to release a preliminary count of second-choice votes until after the 15-day deadline.
Who can blame them? Can you imagine the 15-day roller coaster that we’d be on if they decided otherwise?
In this special three-way, Mary Peltola has a 7.5 point lead over Sarah Palin so far. It looks like it will be third-place finisher Nick Begich who will be eliminated. His are the only ballots that will be re-allocated. But imagine if it was a tighter race, with Begich and Palin switching places with each update. Sometimes it would be the Palin ballots that get reallocated. The preliminary results would swing wildly. We’d run out of confetti and tears.
So we wait to find out who will be sworn in next month as Alaska’s newest representative in the U.S. House. The Division of Elections plans to release the next updated results tomorrow. Again, this is just a count of first-choice votes so far.
Meanwhile, there’s that other U.S. House race, for the term that starts in January.
Now that Tara Sweeney is out, it looks like Libertarian Chris Bye will be on the November ballot. He got just over 1,000 votes in the August primary.
I talked to him yesterday and he’s delighted, especially because he figures he only knows about 200 people in Alaska. He’s an Army veteran who lives in Fairbanks and works as a fishing guide. He says he found his political enlightenment in a book.
“It's by a guy named Ron Paul. And it absolutely changed the way I understood the governance of this great nation we live in,” he told me.
Bye says he’s happy, for the most part, with the ranked choice system and grateful that Sweeney chose to drop out in time for the fifth place finisher to move up.
That's all for now. Drop me a line. I welcome your comments and questions.
- Liz Ruskin
lruskin@alaskapublic.org
Follow me on twitter: @lruskin
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