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Welcome to the Newsletter of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's Regional Center on Peace and Security

With the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford, the largest and most modern of the U.S. fleet, the U.S. military escalation in the Caribbean seems to have culminated. Attacks on alleged narco-boats have left more than 80 dead so far. In the air is the possibility of a "regime change" operation in Venezuela.

The New York Times discusses the possible objectives of this display of force and why a president who campaigned against "foreign wars" is sending warships to Venezuela. A new blog of the Center for Economic and Policy Research gives minute-by-minute updates on the operation. Meanwhile, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) explains some key issues between the US and Venezuela.

The return of "gunboat diplomacy" and pressure for regime change is reminiscent of nearly two centuries of US armed intervention in Latin America and presents many risks, not only to the stability of Venezuela but of the region. From Venezuela, a coalition of civil society groups has spoken out against authoritarian rule and imperialist aggression.

The U.S. narrative justifying the situation is a renewed commitment to the "war on drugs". WOLA explains the basis of that strategy that has plagued the region for decades and why the Trump administration's military plan against drug cartels will fail. A group of experts brought together by the Institute of Studies on Conflict and Humanitarian Action (IECAH ) believe that Washington seeks to subordinate the Western Hemisphere, turning it into a control laboratory.

Along the same lines, the new U.S. national security strategy, about to be published, reformulates priorities, displacing the Asia-Pacific region in favor of Latin America and containing China's influence in this region. These redefinitions are linked, at the same time, to the juxtaposition of ideologies, interests, and historical roots that compete and cooperate in constructing the Trump Administration's foreign policy, which is explained in this CIDOB report. 

In the context of profound changes in international relations, José Antonio Sanahuja and Josep Borrell propose that the EU should bet on the strategic relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean as a geopolitical response to Trumpism. An example of the weakness of the region has been the EU-CELAC Summit, which ended last October without agreement on a condemnation of US extrajudicial executions in the Caribbean and with a final document that does not mention the United States. For Sandra Borda, this is a failure for the region and shows that Europe is not interested in taking sides. To follow this matter, the EULAS Network (Academic synergies between Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean) monitors the relationship between the two regions with numerous resources in its Newsletter.

Meanwhile, Canada, which is strengthening its relations with Mexico in light of the possibility that, in 2026, the US might weaken the free trade agreement between the three countries, has presented its new strategy for Latin America, which addresses political, trade, investment, migration, and security issues, among other fields.

The latest issue of the journal Cuadernos de Estrategia addresses the security and defense challenges in Latin America and the possibility of moving towards a collective security agenda. Meanwhile, the issue 83 of Íconos analyzes the remilitarization of the continent, including cases such as Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina, and the role of the U.S. in the process. The growing recourse to the Armed Forces weakens the quality of democracy in favor of autocracies of all types and tendencies.

In a scenario of global disorder, the expansion of BRICS into BRICS+ would be both a symptom and driver of the shift toward a multicentric international system, which may generate several competing global orders. This article considers how Brazil's membership in the BRICS impacts its relations with the EU.

One of the central themes of disorder (with illegal business rationality) is international crime. The Global Organized Crime Index 2025 shows this phenomenon at an inflection point, where traditional markets (drugs, human beings, financial crime) are combined with geopolitical, technological, conflict, and environmental transformations to generate new forms of criminality that are even more adaptive, networked, and difficult to combat.

The fight against drugs in this region has taken the form of supply-side punitive measures. In The Challenges of Drugs and Organized Crime: Towards Comprehensive Strategies and Shared Responsibilities, organized by the German institute GIGA and FESCOL, possible future post-prohibition scenarios were discussed and how to advance in gradual reforms, taking into account the failure of current approaches and the expansion of cocaine production and demand in Europe (the document will soon be available on the FES Colombia website). GIGA and EU-LAC Foundation have researched how port cities fight drug trafficking, a key issue between Latin America and Europe.

Traditional approaches have not been sufficient, as Lucía Dammert discusses in Anatomía del poder ilegal [Anatomy of Illegal Power], and they explain how illegal markets have created in several countries of the region parallel structures to the state reinforced by corruption and lack of political legitimacy.

Three new chapters of Ideas Audaces, an initiative of the FES Colombia office, examine the challenges of journalism to narrate the transformations of organized crime: how to make the invisible visible, how to cover the digital presence of crime, and how to do journalism on this topic with a focus on people. On the other hand, in the Kit de Seguridad Progresista podcast, Arlene Tickner analyzes how care can transform security in Latin America.

The importance of organized crime in scenarios with and without armed conflict generates a complex debate about possible negotiations with these groups and their ethical, practical, and political implications. This issue is addressed in the journal of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Ecuadorians voted "no" in the referendum on the presence of foreign bases, the creation of a Constituent Assembly, and reforms such as eliminating public funding for political parties. It is a major setback for Daniel Noboa, Donald Trump's ally in the region and promoter of a militarized approach to crime.

FES Ecuador's Grupo de Trabajo de Políticas de Seguridad Integral [Comprehensive Security Policy Working Group] and other institutions have presented "Paz y seguridad en Ecuador: Una agenda desde la sociedad civil organizada": a catalog of ideas, initiatives, actions, programs, and alternative policies to address the rise of violence in the country.

In the last chapter of the multimedia special Vivir sin miedo: un derecho pendiente en Ecuador, Catalina Niño talks to three representatives of civil society who explain the racial background of a violence that often comes not from organized crime, but from the State itself.

Almost ten years after the signature of the peace agreement with the FARC, the dynamics of peace and security have been transformed in Colombia. The book Transiciones posibles de la guerra y la paz en Colombia a casi una década del Acuerdo de paz, by FES Colombia and El Espectador, analyzes the reconfigurations of violence, the prospects for peace, and makes recommendations for these new scenarios.

In July 2025, criminal structures in Colombia numbered more than 25,000 people, including combatants and support networks. According to the Ideas for Peace Foundation, the unstoppable increase in numbers is due to territorial expansion campaigns and strengthening of governance; the pressure of internal ruptures and offensives by the security forces; and new forms of recruitment. The panorama makes it necessary to combine security and negotiation, instead of choosing a single strategy. María Victoria Llorente and Beth Dickinson examine the changes in violent groups, lessons learned from "total peace" and the future of possible negotiations in this episode of the podcast Cuál es el problema.

The legislative elections in Argentina resulted in a victory for La Libertad Avanza, consolidating Javier Milei's control over Congress and his power to advance his reform agenda. Peronism suffered a historic defeat that has plunged it into a serious internal crisis. In a country that has become a key piece of the cocaine trafficking route from South America to Europe, a serious danger lies in this market taking advantage of ultra-liberal and pro-no-rule policies promoted by Milei's government, such as uncontrolled money laundering, the deregulation of customs control, and the attack on the community structure in working-class neighborhoods.

Meanwhile, in Chile, the Grupo de Análisis de la Defensa y las Fuerzas Armadas (GAFDA) describes as inappropriate the proposal for constitutional reform to allow the Executive power to deploy the Armed Forces on the border, in migration control tasks and without prior legislative control.

The UN Security Council approved a new international mission in Haiti, the Gang Suppression Force (GSF), supported by Canada, the US, and numerous countries of the region and the Global South. This force will replace the Kenyan-led mission and will have a broader mandate. Most worrisome is that the mandate of the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) governing Haiti expires in February 2026. Moreover, forming a new peacekeeping mission will take nearly a year, and it is unclear which countries would contribute with troops. Christopher Sabatini explores the options.

The CIDOB International Yearbook delves into the trends and challenges of the global agenda. With a new administration in the USA, an armed conflict on Europe's doorstep in Ukraine, and the humanitarian and moral crisis in Gaza, the international system is entering a dark period in which the consensuses of recent decades are being questioned. The book explores the new international economic order, the geopolitics of climate change, and the nature of future wars. The technological and strategic dimension of this issue is addressed, as well as questions related to the weight of historical memory and the supposed propensity for violence as a species.

Internal armed conflicts with regional dimensions, where neighboring countries militarily support one of the parties or even participate in hostilities, tend to be protracted and are a challenge for international mediation. The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame explore these challenges in numerous case studies. This article studies the Central American formula: The Arias Peace Plan and the Esquipulas II Agreement.

The International Studies Association organized the panel on the decolonization of peace and conflict studies, which promotes critical analysis at a historical moment of increasing authoritarianism and even genocide. Meanwhile, Mediators Beyond Borders organized its eleventh summit in Lima, focusing on how countries can balance the need for economic growth with responsible management of natural resources for present and future generations.

The connection between sustainable resource management and violence is manifested in climate change. Its influence as a conflict multiplier, from the drought that facilitated Islamic State (ISIS) recruitment to the proliferation of pirates in Bangladesh, is the subject of journalist Peter Schwartzstein's investigation in The Heat and the Fury.

Research and study on migration presents ethical and methodological dilemmas that are addressed in this publication of the Argentine Research Network on Contemporary International Migrations (IAMIC). This publication calls for research to be understood as a political, relational, and ethically responsible practice that contributes to social justice.

The latest issue of the journal Pax Lumina explores examples of peacebuilding and nonviolence education, including the work of the Regional Institute on the Study and Practice of Strategic Nonviolent Action in the Americas. In two recent blogs, this institute has explored civil resistance in Bolivia and the role of women in the Ecuadorian and Colombian Amazon, as well as the role of sanctuaries and faith communities in nonviolent action in this webinar.

• The Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) is organizing the third edition of the course on Conflict and International Law for humanitarian personnel, diplomats, and peace mission staff. More information and registration here.
• The Observatorio de la Conflictividad Socioterritorial [Observatory of Socio-territorial Conflict] in Honduras provides numerous resources on conflicts, evictions, and resistance in the country.

Newsletter of the Regional Center on Peace and Security

Edited by Mariano Aguirre Ernst and Mabel González Bustelo

Translated by Yenni Castro (Valestra Editorial)

More information: Maria Alejandra Rico (MariaAlejandra.Rico@fes.de)

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