In this issue:

• Population increases across 90 of Tennessee's 95 counties in 2023
• Significant changes to race and ethnicity data collection by federal agencies
• The Boyd Center's new intercensal estimates, upcoming population projections
• Music censuses taking the stage in Tennessee

Toplines

2023 County Population Estimates Show Widespread Increases

The headline numbers from the Vintage 2023 Population Estimates release feature many of the usual suspects when it comes to Tennessee counties with the largest population increases. Suprise – it’s Rutherford County for the eighth straight year. Eight of the other nine counties in the top 10 were also on last year’s list. In most cases, increases for these counties were smaller when compared to 2022’s torrid pace.

But what caught our attention was a couple of statistics showing how Tennessee’s total population gain of 77,500 people in 2023 was spread statewide.

90 of 95 counties logged population gains in 2023. That was the largest number of counties to experience a year-over-year increase since 1997 and was eclipsed just once in 1995 when 91 counties grew. Nationally, 60 percent of counties had population growth last year, compared to Tennessee where 95 percent of counties had increases. Only three states had a higher percentage of counties with gains – Delaware, Florida and Idaho.

Those gains translated to a 1.4 percent rate of population increase for the state’s 78 rural counties in 2023, outpacing the 0.9 percent growth rate among the 17 urban counties. Additionally, compared to 2022, growth rates increased slightly in rural counties but fell marginally in those classified as urban.

Hispanic and Middle Eastern Race Categories Added in New Federal Rules

On March 28, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released an updated directive outlining significant changes to the ways that race and ethnicity data are collected and reported by federal agencies.

Both data users as well as state and local governments that interface with the dozens of affected agencies will eventually see changes. This could include revisions to forms, survey questionnaires and the structure of statistics that are reported to or published by the federal government. All U.S. agencies are required to develop an implementation plan by the fall of 2025 and enact those changes no later than early 2029.

What’s changing?

The maintenance of race data time series will be a chief concern among many data users. Some initial work developing factors and tools to crosswalk data between the new 2024 standards and the 1997 standards has already started. Expect to hear more about tools and techniques after data collection and data products become available.

Read the full breakdown on our website and check the announcement on the OMB’s dedicated site: spd15revision.gov

Boyd Center 2010-2020 Tennessee Intercensal Estimates Released

If you need an annual population estimate between 2010 and 2020, it’s recommended that you use an intercensal estimate once they are available. Unfortunately, the U.S. Census Bureau’s Intercensal Estimate release has been delayed several years but should be available this fall.

Since we needed intercensals for our forthcoming population projections release, we created our own and published them for free download. There are some important differences between our product and the ones that will eventually be published by the Bureau. Check out our FAQ for an overview and an article we posted in March for a longer discussion of our plans for this product in the next few years.

And don’t hesitate to contact us for help with all your intercensal estimate needs!

Tennessee’s Vintage 2020 Population Estimates (6,886,834) were 38,785 people lower than the July 1, 2020, estimate of 6,925,619 from the Vintage 2022 Population Estimates. In the new Boyd Center Intercensal Estimates, this error of closure was distributed linearly across the annual figures from 2011 to 2020 to create a seamless connection to the next decade’s population estimates.

Around the State

2030 Census Planning Accelerates

The 2030 Census is still six years away but it’s about to get real. Since last year, over 50 research projects to improve various aspects of census operations have been underway.

This year, the Census Bureau took additional steps in preparation for the nation’s 24^th decennial census operation including:

• Formation of a 2030 Census Advisory Committee tasked with sharing expertise and recommendations with the Census Bureau Director about the design and execution of the census.
• Released a series of strategy documents outlining how the count will be conducted and guiding engagement with stakeholders.
• Forthcoming announcement about details of the 2026 Census Test – the first of two major field tests in the lead-up to 2030. The scope of that work will be announced at an April 26^th webinar and the locations will be released this summer.



Follow along at the Bureau’s 2030 Census Page.