Shipments for the month of April were down by 12.5% from the previous year. Year to date, total shipments of American pistachios are 24% lower than for the same period last year.

The issue is not a lack of demand but a lack of supply.  Demand remains strong across all markets, but we estimate that most processors are approaching 90% + sold for the year.  

At the recent INC held in Mallorca, much of this demand can be attributed to the “Dubai Chocolate effect,” and the amount of social media and consumer interest in pistachios is undergoing. Pistachios are the “IT NUT” for 2025. Demand not only for inshell as snacks but kernels for ingredient usage is exceeding all expectations. Overall shipments may be down; kernels are up by 2.5% over last year. Given the higher prices for kernels, this is simply amazing.

Demand for kernels is nonstop, and we have heard some packers and users are cracking out naturally opened inshell to keep up with kernel demand. We expect this demand to remain strong for the remainder of 2025 and well into 2026.

Current estimates for the 2025 crop remain at 1.6B lbs (725,000 MT), with probably 150M lbs (60,000 MT) of carryover from the 2024 crop.  Current estimates for the Iranian crop are at 485M lbs (220,000 MT) with virtually no carryover.  Turkish crop is estimated at 315M lbs (143,000 MT) with an estimated carryover of 535M lbs (243,000 MT). Please keep in mind that most of this will be converted into kernels and consumed in Turkey. In addition, Turkey had a major freeze event, which will have an adverse effect on their crop.

There was a lot of discussion on the effect tariffs will have on trade patterns for the 2025 crop. We got on a plane in Spain with China placing a 145% +/- tariff on US exports. We landed in Dallas, and the tariff was reduced to 10% for 90 days. This is how fast things change in our new political environment. We hope that the tariff issues will soon be resolved, and we can get back to looking at supply and demand scenarios and the old-fashioned arguing over prices that we all enjoy so much.

The American crop is progressing well. We will soon see shell hardening, which is a key milestone in crop development. We need a good crop to keep up with the demand we are all enjoying.

We plan on running at near capacity this year, which is 45 to 50M lbs (20 – 23,000 MT). The brand-new pasteurizer/roaster is in place, and we are doing trials to get the perfect roast. We also recently received our validation for a 5-log reduction, which is great news. And finally, our new kernel sorting line is operational, adding additional capacity to meet kernel demand.  

We expect very strong demand for early shipments this year, given the low supply and strong interest. As you know, with our unique way of processing in line, we are usually the first plant to ship new crop.  As we get closer to harvest and get a better handle on crop size, we will begin looking at weekly capacity availability to meet demand. If you will need shipments in September and/or the first half of October, please start talking to us soon, as there will be limited availability.