Arctic Blast Has Arrived: Breaking Down the Dangerous Cold

Good evening, everyone! I hope you’re staying warm. The winter storm has officially come to an end, but we’re now dealing with leftovers — plus a stretch of bitterly cold air that will dominate our weather pattern over the upcoming week. I wanted to take some time to break down what to expect moving forward, and also provide a quick recap of the storm itself.

As of 6 PM, temperatures across Kentucky are sitting in the upper single digits to mid-teens. For perspective, normal highs this time of year should be in the low to mid-40s, with average lows in the mid to upper 20s. Bottom line: it’s VERY cold. Tonight, most of Kentucky is under an Extreme Cold Warning. Overnight temperatures will fall to around zero and some will dip well below zero. When you factor in the wind, the resulting wind chills will be dangerously cold. The map below shows the forecast wind chills for 7 AM tomorrow.

Unfortunately, this cold pattern isn’t going anywhere soon. Below, you’ll find forecast temperatures for the next five days for six locations across the state, taken directly from the Weather Alert App (download information is available at the end of this update). With temperatures staying this low, the snow and ice will be sticking around for quite a while. Long-range outlooks even favor below-normal temperatures into the second week of February — not as harsh as this week, but still cooler than average.

As I mentioned in my last update, the Livestock Cold Stress Index has moved into the Emergency category and will remain in either the Emergency or Danger categories through Sunday. Now is the time to take precautions. This article from MG‑CAFE Communications (2022) features guidance from University of Kentucky specialists on managing livestock during extreme cold. In addition to protecting animals, make sure you’re properly protecting yourself from the elements as well. Dress in layers, cover exposed skin, and limit time outdoors whenever possible.

This kind of extreme cold also brings an increased risk of pipes bursting. A few simple actions can go a long way:

• Open cabinet doors so warm air can circulate around plumbing, especially on exterior walls.
• Consider letting faucets drip overnight to keep water moving.
• Know where your home’s main water shutoff valve is located — just in case.

Winter Storm Overview

The storm threw us a major curveball as the track shifted roughly 50 miles farther north than initially projected. This change resulted in less snow and more mixed precipitation across much of the Bluegrass State. Because of the northward shift, the corridor of heaviest snowfall ended up along the Ohio River and areas to the north, extending into Indiana and Ohio. Farther south, the warmer layer aloft led to higher amounts of sleet and freezing rain rather than snow. Below are the snowfall and ice totals from the event, courtesy of the National Weather Service in Louisville.

Some of you may be wondering: “What happened to all the snow?!?” It all goes back to that curveball. A warm layer aloft — a pocket of above freezing air roughly one to two miles up in the atmosphere — pushed much farther north into Kentucky than most forecast model guidance had suggested. This layer ulimately determined what type of precipitation reached the ground. Here's a basic playbook of how it works.

• Snowflakes form high in the atmosphere where temperatures are below freezing.
• Falling through the atmosphere, they passed through the warm layer.
• Depending on the depth and temperature of the warm layer, the snowflakes either partially or completely melted.
• Partially melted snowflakes re‑freeze before hitting the ground → sleet (ice pellets)
• Fully melted flakes fall as liquid, then freeze on contact with surfaces → freezing rain (ice)

Forecasting this setup is extremely challenging for meteorologists. We have limited observations in that specific layer of the atmosphere, so even a one‑degree difference can completely change the precipitation type. I’d take heavy snow over this wintry mix business any day!

Stay Safe and Informed:

As mentioned above, the UK Weather Alert App is available on both the Google Play and Apple stores, giving you an easy way to monitor the cold and stay updated on all things weather-related.

The image shown here is a screenshot of my current view from Georgetown, KY, where I’m under an Extreme Cold Warning issued by the National Weather Service. By tapping on the alert, you can access detailed information directly from the NWS for your area.

Until next time! Stay safe and warm!