Are You Happy Now?

"I don't want to be negative but I don't think anything is ever going to get better ever again" - Marc Maron, -From Bleak To Dark.

"This too shall pass" - Persian adage attributed to medieval Persian Sufi poets.

"Dude, YOU Rock" - Lewis Largent, former KROQ & MTV personality and executive.

"Date your interest, marry your home" - Ari Harkov, NYC real estate broker and principal at The Harkov Lewis Team.

"Frankie? That dog is EXTRA." - Hallie Isquith, Daughter/Astute Behavorial Observer.

Nobody seems happy. Well, Frankie is pretty happy - she's just EXTRA.

There are only four things I know at a super high level:

1- Where to get the best pizza in New York.

2- How to sell and buy New York Residential Real Estate.

3- Classic Rock and Alternative Songs 1977-1997.

4- Right now, nobody seems happy.

Travolta shows you how to eat New York Pizza. Bravo Johnny, bravo.

For our newsletter purposes, let's tackle just why nobody seems happy?

And let's narrow the discussion to New York City.

Pizza in New York City is still great. In fact, I would argue with the proliferation of high-end options like Aromi and Roberta's - pizza is better than ever here.

You can listen to Champagne Supernova or How Soon Is Now or The Whole Of The Moon more easily than ever before, not to mention a million new artists, so unhappiness is not about music.

Noel and Liam - Feel The Peak Brotherly Love

The specter of climate change, failing banks, the death of the movie industry, even the bird flu all seem worrisome - but I don't think that's it. At least for most New Yorkers.

It must be real estate.

Look, even in the best of times, New York real estate is not for the faint of heart. No one moves to this city for the real estate.

Per dollar, you can get more space, a bigger garden or deck, better views, cheaper parking, and richer amenities in almost every other city in the United States.

No one moves to New York for the inside of their apartment.

You move t0 New York for what is outside of your apartment - culture, food, pace, vibe, c0nversation, connection and career. You move here to be amidst the smartest and most accomplished people in every field.

So, people move here for a slew of reasons - but not for their apartment.

Nice but Let's Go Out and see What's Going On!

This makes our collective obsession with real estate seem all the stranger.

Take this test:

Spend an hour in Central Park or in any Brooklyn cafe on a nice day. You will quickly realize real estate is the one subject all New Yorkers talk about:

-Where are you living now?

-How did you nab that place?

-Do you like your building?

-How much do/did you pay?

Lately, the conversation has shifted:

-When is your lease up?

-How much is your landlord raising your rent?

-Thinking about buying?

-What interest rate were you quoted?

-(sigh) I should have bought during covid.

In today's choppy market, with its high interest rates, record-setting rents, and low sales inventory, nearly everyone seems unsatisfied with their real estate situation.

Why?

Sure, the rent in New York is too damn high and sales inventory is too darn low.

But that's not all of it.

We are living in a time of maximum uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty.

Additionally, we are worn down. Tired. Rattled. Burnt out.

Think about the last 15 years - the Great Recsession in 2008, political chaos and polarization, the Covid Pandemic, and war. And this week - a banking crisis.

Maybe Marc Maron is right - maybe nothing is ever going to get better ever again.

Or just maybe, as I suspect, this too shall pass.

Don't get me wrong, the rents likely won't go down meaningfully from here, and interest rates may never see 3% again.

But people adapt.

Yesterday's uncertainty is today's reality.

In 2019 if I told you that you would be going to the office 5 times a year instead of 5 times a week, you would have called me delusional. Today, it's standard.

Especially in New York, the only constant is change.

I want to talk about what you can do, if you want to buy.

You basically have 3 options.

Option number one - wait. Keep renting. Maybe the rates will go plummeting down soon. (Interestingly they are down today on the heels of the Silcon Valley Bank bailout)

Option number two - exit New York. Thousands depart every year, and even more arrive.

Option number three - jump in now. Strategize. Get prepared so you can buy if and when you find the right property.

Let's look at all 3:

Wait/Keep Renting: The average rent in Manhattan is $4500 for 700 square feet. That's $54k a year out of your pocket, and into a landlord's bank account. No equity, no capital appreciation, and no discernible economic upside.

Exit/Leave: New York City is not what it was. It's lesser. Of course so is every other big American city - San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, Portland all have the same problems and are no kinder in terms of real estate options. Of course you could move to Miami. That city seems better than it was, especially if you love non-stop culture wars, oppressive humidity and a sense of history that goes all the way back to 1955.

Jump In/Strategize: How in the world can you shoulder mortgage rates of 5% or more? I'm glad you asked.

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30-Day Mortgage Rate Trends

Behold! The Mortgage Rate Buy-Down

Here is what you can leverage:

1- MORTGAGE RATE BUY-DOWNS : What is the world is a "rate buy-down"? Well, it is exactly what it sounds like. With a rate buy-down, sellers will pay part of buyer's mortgage. A very astute buy-side agent (forgive my lack of humility) should be able to negotiate a rate buy-down. The concept is simple; the seller pays part of the buyer's mortgage. In real world terms, think of it like this: instead of paying $12k less for a property, negotiate a $1k a month mortgage rate discount for the first year.

2- ARMs: The vast majority of my clients have been financing with 7 and 10 year ARMs, not 30 year fixed loans. ARMs are certainly riskier post-term than a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. However, they are also often at least a percentage point less expensive than fixed rate mortgages. When all of my finance sector clients started using ARMs I took notice. All this said, the devil is in the details. The rates and ratio between ARMs and fixed mortgages change on a daily basis. Daily!

3-UNDERSTAND REFINANCING: With my clients, more than half seem to have refinanced within their first 7 years of ownership no matter what their initial interest rate was. Financial markets are faster and more volatile than ever. There is likely to be a swing towards lower rates at some point in the next 7 years and as long as you are awake and paying attention you should be able to jump on that and refinance.

If this sounds interesting to you - reach on out. If this hardly makes sense to you - reach on out. If you want a human conversation sans real estate to assure you all is not bleak and dark - reach on out.

Lin Brehmer and Lewis Largent- may their memories be a blessing.

Friends departed:

I lost two great music industry friends over the last couple of months - Lewis Largent and Lin Brehmer. Both were beloved on-air personalities - Lewis at KROQ Los Angeles and then MTV, and Lin at WXRT in Chicago. Both passed away recently after very difficult battles with long term illnesses.

As popular as these men were with their audiences; they were truly loved by their co-workers, business partners, and friends.

Off air, they couldn't have been more different.

Lewis seemed brash, loud, overtly opinionated, and wild. With his Doc Martens and surf shorts Lewis dressed and looked like a Gen-X Rock Star whether he was teeing off at Pelican Hill or thrashing in the mosh pit at The Roxy or The Whiskey.

Lin seemed quiet, cerebral, and dark. He had a professorial vibe - think William Hurt as a poetic baby boomer and erudite morning host. But Lin was also quite warm and tender-hearted. He was wry and delightful. No wonder he told his audience, repeatedly, that he was "your best friend in the whole world".

In reality, they were both incredibly similar. Lewis and Lin were deeply thoughtful guys who treated others with immense care and respect, especially interns and newbies. They both could seem quite shy when you were alone with them. They both loved and championed music that others didn't "get". They consistently took chances when they didn't have to. They loved music so much and communicated that love so well.

Lin and Lewis hated the creeping corporatocracy of modern media. They spoke truth to power.

May their memories be a blessing.

Frankie? That Dog Is EXTRA!

In mid-October 2017 our beloved standard poodle Mayzie passed away. We were heartbroken. Devastated.

Our days were filled with sadness and we spent our nights on Petfinder. Eventually we saw a poodle-mix rescue and high tailed it on Halloween morning from The Upper West Side out to Southampton to check her out.

Alas, it turned out that our targeted poodle wasn't neccessarily a poodle, and wasn't a she.

As we prepared to drive home and try again in a few days, one of the volunteers asked us if we wanted to see a poodle/terrier that had just come in a week or so earlier, but was so sick and frail and freaked-out that she still hadn't been officially put up for adoption. Of course we said "yes" and a few minutes later we met a trembling matted rescue named "Misty."

Apparently, Misty had been through the ringer. Not only was she a rescue with an ear infection and bald spots, but she had spent her first few years as a puppy-mill dog. She was likely a mom many times over herself and pretty darn feral.

But when she looked up at us with those near black button eyes - we were hooked. She was ours, and we were hers.

Little did we know just how much spirit, stubborness and downright weirdness this little girl possessed.

We named her "Frankie Lee" which to my mind was after the Dylan song, and to Natalie's mind fit her look and disposition better than "Misty".

Once we had her home Frankie's personality became apparent. She was a nervous agitated girl, who still trembled much of the day, flinched from contact, and was almost never still. And a hardcore food scavenger.

Frankie never really rested. She sort of paced back and forth, spun her body around continually, made weird gutteral vocalizing sounds, and did a indescribable little back and forth goat dance.

After a full day and night of this she would collapse for 6-7 hours of sleep and the whole process would begin again anew the next day. We had the only dog on the Upper West Side who took no naps.

The next weekend our kids came by to meet Frankie. And during that first meeting our daughter Hallie made the fateful pronouncement:

"Frankie? That dog is EXTRA"

Since 2017, Frankie has slowly but surely calmed down. She now cuddles, naps, enjoys a petting session, and generally comports herself more or less like a dog.

Frankie is still an odd one still. She steals food at any and all opportunities, balks at any walks during even the slightest drizzle, pogos like Eddie from the TV show Frazier, and generally demands non-stop attention.

It occurs to me, Frankie is not all that different from a co-op seller or three I have had over the last couple of years!

And like them, Frankie is extra, and Frankie is beloved.