November 8, 2021
Employers continue to contend with labor shortages.
What's in store for payroll taxes in 2022.
Several reports from last week suggest that the labor market may be recovering. Unemployment insurance claims fell nationally and here in Washington. Perhaps more important, the October jobs report showed the national economy added 531,000 new jobs and revised upward estimates for the two previous months' disappointing numbers.

Still, labor shortages continue to challenge employers, as the chart below from the NFIB jobs report shows.
NFIB reports,

Small business owners continued to struggle to find workers to fill open positions in October with 49% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reporting job openings they could not fill in the current period, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. A net 44% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported raising compensation, up two points from September and a 48-year record high reading.

And,

Overall, 62% of small employers reported hiring or trying to hire in October, down five points from September. Ninety-four percent of those owners hiring or trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Thirty-three percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 25% reported none.
Meeting the labor shortage challenge
with training and education
The pandemic has accelerated the need for additional training and education throughout the economy. An excellent piece published by The Hechinger Report finds that making that job-to-career change will require most workers to gain additional training and education.

For years, economists have been warning that more and more people hoping to switch careers would need to get additional education to go from one workplace to another — even in industries such as manufacturing that have not always previously required it. Now that prophecy is coming true, to the surprise of many of the record number of Americans quitting their jobs.

…The trend has been driven by rapid changes in the labor market and accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic. And it’s among the reasons labor experts cite for the fact that there are 10.4 million open jobs at a time when 7.7 million Americans are unemployed.

We've reported in the past on the skills gap in Washington, which is explored well in the 2017 report Pathways to Great Jobs in Washington, and developed in a series of subsequent reports on the importance of post-secondary credentials, most recently Path to 70% Credential Attainment: Recovery and Reimagining. The focus of. the research is preparing students of today for the abundant career opportunities in Washington, most of which will require that post-secondary credential. 

Now, apply that same logic to adults seeking new career opportunities. Obtaining the credential is a challenge for those already working long hours and who often have additional family responsibilities. Yet, it's a challenge that must be addressed, both for the workers seeking to upgrade their skills and for the economy to continue its recovery.

In a recent column, Association of Washington Business president Kris Johnson addressed how manufacturers in our state are tackling the two issues of labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. He writes,

...manufacturers are scrambling to find new suppliers for needed materials, and they’re looking for talent everywhere they can, from high school and college technical skills programs to finding pathways for people who were formerly incarcerated.

Labor force participation, which is tracked by the AWB Institute down to the county level on a database called the Vitals, shows statewide participation at 64.7% in 2020. However, that number may decline in 2021 based on the number of people leaving the workforce.

He concludes, manufacturers are resilient and are meeting the test. Our state's efforts to improve credential attainment will continue to be a key part of the solution to the post-pandemic labor market challenge.
Without comment,
results of the capital gains tax advisory vote
Payroll taxes scheduled to increase in new year.
Taxes are scheduled to go up next year, the Washington Research Council reminds us. In a brief blog post, the WRC reviews scheduled payroll tax hikes. As the group reports, there's some discretion attached to the paid family and medical leave tax.

According to the Employment Security Department (ESD), premiums for paid family and medical leave will increase to 0.6% beginning Jan. 1, 2022…

The increase from 0.4% to 0.6% may or may not be reflected in employee paychecks. For 2019 to 2021, the premium rate is split so that one-third is for family leave benefits and two-thirds is for medical leave benefits. Under the statute, the employee pays the full amount of the family leave premium and 45% of the medical leave premium. The employer statutorily pays 55% of the medical leave premium.

However, the employer may choose to pay the full premium and not deduct anything from an employee’s paycheck (as is the case with workers’ compensation).

Someone pays, of course. Then there's this:

Regardless of who pays the premium, this increase is one of several payroll tax increases expected for next year:

  • Workers’ compensation rates could go up 3.1% on average.
  • The unemployment insurance average tax rate is forecast to increase from 1.22% in 2021 to 1.45% in 2022. (We wrote about unemployment insurance and the pandemic in a policy brief earlier this year.)
  • Unemployment insurance taxes will be paid on a larger taxable wage base. It is increasing from $56,500 in 2021 to $62,500 in 2022.
  • The new 0.58% long-term care payroll tax begins in January.

In a separate report, the WRC points out that Washington again has the nation's highest workers' compensation benefit costs.
Congress passes infrastructure bill
The House passed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill Friday night. We provide links to some news coverage here and expect much more to follow as the details receive additional scrutiny.

We also want to point to our blog post citing a Seattle Times editorial on infrastructure needs here and another on the problems plaguing the state ferry system.

From the former:

…the Legislature and Gov. Jay Inslee have been disappointingly slow to fix the neglect that wastes time and fortune. That’s shocking, especially with legislative leaders shrugging about missing the opportunity to act this year.

House Speaker Laurie Jinkins, D-Tacoma, said Friday a tentative schedule for a November 2021 infrastructure special session is unlikely, even though House and Senate transportation chairs were nearing agreement on terms.

“We’ve blown past every deadline in that plan,” she said.

Washingtonians should not have to wait much longer. If legislators cannot find a way to make a special session work this year, they must prove early in 2022 they take this problem seriously and get a transportation deal done.

The Congressional legislation may ease some of the state's most pressing problems. But it does not mean that lawmakers can take a pass on addressing the known infrastructure deficiencies.
From the blog